All Episodes
Distinguishing Immediate Disruptions from Durable Policy Drivers
Government shutdowns offer a masterclass in market distraction, revealing how focusing on immediate disruptions blinds investors to the compounding effects of executive-driven policy and legislative inertia.
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Hong Kong Property Rebound Driven By Systemic Policy and Demographic Shifts
Hong Kong's property market signals a synchronized rebound, driven by policy shifts and talent influx, positioning it as a unique nexus for China-world monetary interconnection and predicting broader Asian liquidity trends.
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Interconnected Themes: AI Compute Bottlenecks, Energy Politics, Geopolitics, Societal Shifts
2026's landscape hinges on AI, energy, geopolitics, and society. Discover how compute limits, energy politics, and global shifts create complex challenges and unique investment advantages.
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Global Economic Outlook: Broadening US Growth, AI Productivity, and China's Deflation
AI adoption could boost US productivity to 3% and enable faster real growth, potentially allowing the Fed to cut rates despite strong growth if inflation continues to fall.
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Global Central Banks Navigate Divergent Paths: US Rate Cuts, Japan's Currency Risk, European Easing
US inflation may ease post-Q1, allowing Fed rate cuts, but a strong fiscal bill could sustain inflation and delay easing. Japan faces currency depreciation risks, while Europe's disinflation supports ECB rate cuts.
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US-EU De-escalation Eases Geopolitical Risk; Domestic Affordability Faces Legislative Hurdles
Geopolitical de-escalation eases U.S.-EU trade risks, but domestic affordability plans face steep congressional hurdles, promising limited impact on housing and credit.
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GSE Mortgage Buy Program: Modest Housing Impact, Broader Credit Tailwinds
A $200 billion mortgage buy program offers a modest affordability boost and benefits credit markets, but its scale and unclear details limit significant housing market impact.
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AI Adoption Drives Structural Shift in European Equities
European equities are breaking a decade-long discount trend, offering AI-driven growth and selective stock-picking opportunities beyond US tech giants.
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Simultaneous Policy Easing Fuels Market Overheating and Valuation Overshooting
Unusual simultaneous monetary, fiscal, and regulatory easing fuels overheated markets, potentially driving valuations beyond fundamentals and unlocking trillions in bank capacity.
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India's Market Comeback: Reflationary Policies Drive Re-rating
India's markets are set for a comeback, driven by reflationary policies, structural economic shifts, and a household move to equities, promising sustained growth and higher valuations.
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Tariffs Drive US Manufacturing Reshoring and Decade-High Growth
Tariffs are making U.S. production more viable, driving decade-high industrial growth and positioning the U.S. to capture future factory construction by 2027.
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Venezuela's Oil Revival: Medium-Term Supply Risks and Refiner Benefits
Reviving Venezuela's oil industry offers bearish price risks medium-term but benefits US refiners and energy stocks, while its debt shows a strong recovery outlook.
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Leading Cyclical Indicators Signal Substantive Global Growth Acceleration
Leading indicators across commodities and equities signal a robust global growth acceleration, suggesting stronger earnings and challenging rate cut expectations.
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Tesla's Camera-Only Approach Drives Autonomous Vehicle Market Disruption
Autonomous vehicle availability doubles to over 30% of the U.S. urban population by 2026, driven by fleet expansion and new city rollouts.
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Private Credit 2.0 Fuels Digital Infrastructure Amidst Evolving Lending Guidelines
Credit markets are transforming, fueling digital infrastructure with trillions in capital. Banks now participate across the full credit spectrum, blurring public and private lines as new risks emerge in massive buildouts.
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U.S. Intervention in Venezuela Signals Multipolarity, Unilateral Policy, and Market Uncertainty
U.S. intervention in Venezuela signals a unilateral foreign policy shift, increasing market uncertainty and potentially reshaping trade dynamics with Mexico, while influencing Venezuelan bond valuations.
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Bullish U.S. Equity Outlook For 2026 Driven By Converging Catalysts
An early-cycle recovery is underway, driven by deregulation and accommodative policy, creating an optimal environment for equity gains in 2026.
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One Big Beautiful Bill Act: Tax Refunds Boost 2026 Spending, Later Drag
Retroactive tax cuts boost 2026 refunds by 15-20%, primarily fueling savings and debt repayment, improving household finances before later economic drags.
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Fed's Rate Cuts Risk Prolonging Inflation Amidst Economic Transition
Fed rate cuts to support jobs risk prolonging inflation above 2% through 2027, demanding a careful balance between employment and price stability.
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AI CapEx Drives Bond Issuance, Shifts Equity Preferences
U.S. equity valuations are justified by higher profit margins and supportive policies, while AI spending creates a $1 trillion bond issuance gap, downgrading investment-grade credit.
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AI's Disruptive Impact and Economic Implications Across Industries
AI adoption is reshaping industries, driving economic growth through data centers and semiconductors, while forcing companies to adapt or face disruption from agentic commerce and hyperscalers.
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Bull Market Recovery Driven by Policy Sequencing and Dovish Fed
A new bull market began in April, presenting significant earnings upside as policy shifts to a growth-positive stance. Markets are underappreciating this opportunity for broad economic recovery and corporate earnings growth.
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2026 Global Economic Outlook: U.S. Drives Growth Amidst Divergent Central Bank Policies
AI drives U.S. growth and inflation in 2026, with central banks diverging as global economic expansion moderates.
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Data Center Growth Strains Grid, Raises Consumer Electricity Rates
Data center electricity demand is projected to triple by 2030, straining the grid and potentially raising consumer rates, while some data centers deploy on-site power to mitigate impacts.
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Compressed Risk Premiums Require Dynamic Asset Allocation
Lower risk premiums and flatter efficient frontiers mean investors earn less for taking on risk, challenging traditional 60/40 portfolios and demanding dynamic asset allocation.
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Resilient Growth Drives Divergent Equity and Credit Performance
AI-fueled investment and fiscal policy will drive record corporate debt issuance, widening credit spreads and causing investment-grade credit to underperform equities in 2026.
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Structural Inflation Shift Requires Real Asset Portfolio Diversification
A new inflationary regime emerges, driven by AI infrastructure booms and wealth concentration, forcing a shift from traditional 60-40 portfolios to real assets for inflation hedging.
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Policy Implementation Drives Market Focus Beyond Directional Bets
Markets now adapt to established policies, not anticipate shifts. Focus on implementation, trade rulings, and executive actions for impact, as legislative changes face gridlock.
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AI CapEx Financing and IG Bond Supply Challenges Global Rates
AI CapEx financing will drive massive bond supply, yet credit spreads are expected to widen only modestly, challenging client assumptions about market capacity.
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Fed Prioritizes Market Stability Through Asset Purchases
The Fed prioritizes market stability, injecting liquidity via asset purchases to counter Treasury issuance and support asset prices, signaling a "run it hot" thesis for equities.
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2026 Credit Cycle: Stimulus, AI Fueling Issuance Before Burnout
A stimulative backdrop and AI investment will spur corporate risk-taking, causing the credit cycle to burn hotter before it burns out in 2026, necessitating wider spreads.
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Fed's Data-Dependent Policy Prioritizes Labor Amidst Lasting Inflation
Fed shifts to data-dependent rate cuts, prioritizing labor support even with inflation above target until 2027, signaling market volatility and dollar depreciation.
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Asia's 2026 Recovery Driven by Non-Tech Exports and China Equity Stability
Asia's 2026 export growth broadens beyond tech, fueling wider economic recovery through job creation and consumption, while China's equity market stabilizes with a focus on innovation sectors.
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European Equities: Multiple Expansion Over Earnings Growth Amidst Structural Headwinds
European equities may rise through multiple expansion, driven by U.S. strength and AI adoption, while facing earnings downgrades from China competition and slower German fiscal execution.
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AI-Driven Productivity and Rate Cuts Fuel Market Broadening
AI-driven productivity, Fed rate cuts, and deregulation fuel a broadening market beyond tech, favoring cyclicals and quality companies with strong pricing power.
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AI Drives Retail Transformation Through Six Key Dimensions
AI transforms retail by enhancing personalization, boosting shopper spend by 25%, and driving GDP growth, while agentic commerce introduces new risks and opportunities.
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K-Shaped Economy: Slowing Wage Growth and Divergent Consumer Spending
Slowing real wage growth to stall speed will cut consumption growth to 1% in late 2025, impacting lower- and middle-income households, while higher-income consumers benefit from wealth effects.
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U.S. Equity Valuation Justified by Profitability and Policy; AI Drives Bond Issuance
Elevated U.S. equity multiples are justified by higher profit margins and tech weighting, supported by policy tailwinds and broadening earnings growth.
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