Fantasy Premier League Strategy: Chip Timing and Fixture-Based Transfers - Episode Hero Image

Fantasy Premier League Strategy: Chip Timing and Fixture-Based Transfers

FPL Harry · · Listen to Original Episode →
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TL;DR

  • Arsenal's defense, despite recent underperformance in expected goals conceded, remains a strong hold due to favorable upcoming fixtures against a weakened Everton attack, justifying retaining at least one defender.
  • Manchester City's defense presents a prime transfer target with favorable upcoming fixtures, ranking second in expected goals conceded and offering value in defenders like O'Riley at 5.3 million.
  • Prioritizing fixture difficulty and chip strategy, Game Week 18 is identified as the optimal window for utilizing the Bench Boost chip due to favorable matchups for bench players.
  • The Triple Captain chip is best deployed on Erling Haaland against West Ham at home, with Bruno Fernandes against Wolves in Game Week 19 as a secondary option.
  • Forwards like Jared Bowen offer strong long-term potential from Game Week 18 onwards due to West Ham's favorable schedule, despite a challenging immediate fixture.
  • Midfielders such as Phil Foden and Samu are recommended buys, with Harry Wilson presented as a cost-effective alternative for those seeking budget-friendly options.

Deep Dive

The core of this Fantasy Premier League (FPL) strategy revolves around optimizing player transfers and chip usage for Game Week 17 and beyond, with a particular focus on mitigating risks associated with player injuries and fixture congestion during the holiday period. The analysis highlights that while individual player form is important, the timing of chip plays (Triple Captain, Bench Boost, Free Hit, Wildcard) and strategic player acquisitions, especially defenders and forwards with favorable upcoming schedules, are crucial for maximizing points and rank.

The implications of this strategic approach extend beyond simple player selection. For instance, the decision to hold or sell Arsenal defenders, despite a recent dip in clean sheets, is justified by their strong underlying defensive metrics (expected goals conceded) and favorable upcoming fixtures against weaker attacks. This suggests that a short-term downturn in results does not automatically warrant a defensive overhaul if the fundamental data remains robust, indicating a potential for future clean sheets. Similarly, the analysis of Manchester City defenders prioritizes consistent minutes and underlying data over individual attacking threat, implying that defensive solidity and guaranteed playtime are valuable assets, especially when fixtures are favorable.

Furthermore, the discussion around midfielders and forwards emphasizes adapting to player availability (e.g., Afcon absences) and anticipating fixture swings. The recommendation to acquire players like Harry Wilson, despite being a cheaper option, is based on his recent performance and cost-effectiveness, demonstrating a trade-off between high-cost, high-return players and more budget-friendly options that can free up funds for other areas of the squad. The strategic planning for chip usage, advocating for a phased approach with the Triple Captain in Game Week 17, Bench Boost in Game Week 18, and Free Hit or Wildcard in Game Week 19, suggests a deliberate strategy to leverage specific fixture advantages and player availability across multiple weeks. This phased approach aims to capitalize on optimal team compositions for each chip, rather than deploying them reactively. The consideration of rolling a transfer to accumulate five for Game Week 18 indicates a willingness to sacrifice immediate gains for greater flexibility and stronger options in subsequent weeks, highlighting a long-term perspective in FPL management.

Ultimately, the core takeaway is that successful FPL management requires a dynamic and data-driven approach, balancing short-term performance with long-term strategic planning. The analysis underscores that understanding fixture difficulty, player availability, and the optimal timing of chip usage are paramount for navigating the complexities of the FPL season and achieving consistent success.

Action Items

  • Audit Arsenal defense: Analyze expected goals conceded (xGC) over the last 6 gameweeks to identify underperformance trends.
  • Track player price changes: Monitor 5-10 highly owned players daily using livefpl.net or fantasyfootballscout.co.uk to inform transfer decisions.
  • Evaluate fixture ticker: Analyze the top 3-5 teams on the fixture ticker for the next 6 gameweeks to identify optimal transfer targets.
  • Assess chip strategy: Plan for the optimal gameweek (17, 18, or 19) to deploy remaining chips (Free Hit, Triple Captain, Bench Boost) based on fixture congestion and team status.
  • Measure transfer impact: For 3-5 recent transfers, calculate the point difference between the transferred-out and transferred-in player to assess decision effectiveness.

Related Episodes

Key Quotes

"my fpl game week 17 first transfer plans now some of you might only have one or two transfers left after we got five transfers last week but some of you like me might have three four or five transfers sitting in the bank ready to use when you want them we're going to have a look at my team what i'm planning what i'm doing with my four free transfers that i've got in the bank this week"

FPL Harry explains that he has four free transfers available for Game Week 17, contrasting this with other players who may have fewer. Harry indicates he will discuss his team plans and how he intends to utilize these transfers.

"we'll also talk about the triple captaincy chip erling haaland at home to west ham it is currently active in my team or should i be saving it for another opportunity in either game week 18 or game week 19"

FPL Harry states his intention to discuss the strategic use of the triple captaincy chip, specifically regarding Erling Haaland's upcoming match. Harry is considering whether to activate the chip immediately or save it for a later game week.

"my transfer was enzo fernandez out to either sarr or son heung min enzo fernandez picked up three points and he ended up on 11 deathcon at the moment doesn't look like that's going to change sarr also only got three and he played some of the game at right back joe gomez picked up an injury and sarr might have got injured himself"

FPL Harry details a recent transfer decision, moving Enzo Fernandez out for either Sarr or Son Heung Min. Harry notes that Enzo Fernandez and Sarr both had low point returns, and mentions potential injury concerns for Joe Gomez and Sarr.

"i've got four free transfers and when the transfer that i did of enzo fernandez to son heung min i've got exactly 0 0 in the bank so just to squash the early transfer questions of should i do eling haaland to harry wilson i don't have the money in the bank to do that as a straight swap"

FPL Harry clarifies his financial situation within the game after a specific transfer, stating he has no funds remaining in the bank. This lack of funds prevents a direct swap from Erling Haaland to Harry Wilson, addressing potential player transfer queries.

"the triple captain chip is on erling haaland at the moment i've then got anderson against anderson monday night football for game week 17 anderson versus anderson fulham versus nottingham forest the anderson derby who will come out on top"

FPL Harry confirms that the triple captaincy chip is currently active on Erling Haaland in his team. He also highlights an upcoming match between two players named Anderson, framing it as a notable fixture for Game Week 17.

"i would be holding onto arsenal defense particularly if it's even just for everton away everton are likely to be without dcl to an injury ilian and di are going away to afcon jack grealish has also picked up a knock their attack is going to be a lot worse going into gameweek 17 against arsenal"

FPL Harry advises against selling Arsenal defenders, especially for the upcoming match against Everton. He supports this by listing several key absences and injuries for Everton's attacking players, which he believes will weaken their offense against Arsenal.

Resources

External Resources

Books

  • "Fantasy Premier League Tips 2025/26" by FPL Harry - Mentioned as the context for the episode's transfer plans.

Articles & Papers

  • "Fantasy Football Scout" (fantasyfootballscout.co.uk) - Referenced for price change predictions and fixture tickers.

Tools & Software

  • Live FPL Price Changes (livefpl.net/prices) - Used to track player price changes.
  • FFscout Price Changes (fantasyfootballscout.co.uk) - Used to track player price changes.
  • Plan FPL (planfpl.com) - Used for future team planning.
  • FPL Rotation Planner - Used for team rotation planning.
  • Price Change Predictor (plan.livefpl.net/prices) - Used to predict player price changes.
  • Price Change Predictor FREE (fantasyfootballscout.co.uk) - Used to predict player price changes.

People

  • FPL Harry - Host of the podcast, discussing his FPL transfer plans.
  • Jake Paul - Mentioned in relation to a boxing match.
  • Anthony Joshua - Mentioned in relation to a boxing match.
  • Erling Haaland - Discussed as a potential triple captaincy option and for his performance.
  • Thiago - Mentioned as a player in the FPL team.
  • Bruno Fernandes - Discussed as a potential chip option and for his performance.
  • Son Heung Min - Mentioned as a transfer target and for his performance.
  • Enzo Fernandez - Mentioned as a player who was transferred out.
  • Sarr - Mentioned as a player in the FPL team and for potential injury.
  • Joe Gomez - Mentioned as a player who picked up an injury.
  • Harry Wilson - Discussed as a potential transfer target.
  • Hudson-Odoi - Mentioned as a player who does less defensive work.
  • Dominiguez - Mentioned in comparison to other players.
  • Anderson - Mentioned as a player in the FPL team.
  • David Raya - Mentioned as a player in the FPL team.
  • Bukayo Saka - Discussed as a captaincy option and for his performance.
  • Phil Foden - Mentioned as a player in the FPL team and for potential double-up.
  • Maresca - Mentioned in relation to Cole Palmer's playing time.
  • Cole Palmer - Discussed as a potential transfer target.
  • Virgil van Dijk - Mentioned as a player in the FPL team and for defensive options.
  • Richards - Mentioned as a defensive option.
  • Leeds - Mentioned in relation to a match against Brentford.
  • Timber - Mentioned as a player in the FPL team and for defensive options.
  • Aston Villa - Mentioned in relation to their performance against West Ham.
  • Wolves - Mentioned in relation to their fixture against Manchester United.
  • Burnley - Mentioned in relation to their fixture against Son Heung Min.
  • West Ham - Mentioned in relation to their fixture against Haaland.
  • Brighton - Mentioned in relation to their fixture against Van Dijk.
  • Crystal Palace - Mentioned in relation to their fixture against Leeds.
  • Sunderland - Mentioned in relation to their fixture against Leeds.
  • Bournemouth - Mentioned in relation to their fixture against Burnley.
  • Brentford - Mentioned in relation to their fixture against Brighton.
  • Arsenal - Discussed in relation to their defense and fixtures.
  • Chelsea - Mentioned in relation to their defense and fixtures.
  • Manchester City - Discussed in relation to their defense and fixtures.
  • O'Reilly - Mentioned as a defensive target.
  • Nunez - Mentioned as a defensive target.
  • Gvardiol - Mentioned as a defensive target.
  • Diaz - Mentioned as a defensive target.
  • Savinho - Mentioned as a player who won a penalty.
  • Bryan Mbeumo - Discussed as a player to potentially sell and for replacements.
  • Matheus Cunha - Mentioned as a potential differential transfer target.
  • Samu - Mentioned as a player in the FPL team and for potential transfer.
  • Bruno Guimarães - Mentioned as a transfer target.
  • Declan Rice - Mentioned as a potential transfer target.
  • Cherki - Mentioned as a potential transfer target.
  • Saborlai - Mentioned as a potential transfer target and for injury.
  • Jared Bowen - Discussed as a forward transfer target.
  • Etik - Mentioned as a forward transfer target.
  • Danny Welbeck - Mentioned as a forward transfer target.
  • Barry - Mentioned as a forward transfer target.
  • Mark Guayou - Mentioned as a forward transfer target.
  • Elliot Anderson - Mentioned as a player to potentially downgrade.

Organizations & Institutions

  • Netflix - Mentioned as the platform for a boxing match.
  • Premier League - Mentioned in relation to Fantasy Premier League.
  • Fantasy Football Scout - Mentioned for its resources.
  • Engage Partnerships - Mentioned for partnership inquiries.
  • Depop - Mentioned as a platform for selling items.
  • Myer - Mentioned for holiday gifting deals.
  • Lego - Mentioned as a product available at Myer.
  • Yankee Candle - Mentioned as a product available at Myer.
  • Myer Perks - Mentioned as a rewards program.
  • National Football League (NFL) - Mentioned in relation to Fantasy Premier League.
  • Manchester United - Mentioned in relation to their players and fixtures.
  • Liverpool - Mentioned in relation to their fixtures.
  • Everton - Mentioned in relation to their fixtures.
  • Fulham - Mentioned in relation to their fixtures.
  • Tottenham Hotspur (Spurs) - Mentioned in relation to their fixtures.
  • Newcastle - Mentioned in relation to their fixtures.
  • Aston Villa - Mentioned in relation to their fixtures.
  • Brentford - Mentioned in relation to their fixtures.
  • Crystal Palace - Mentioned in relation to their fixtures.
  • Sunderland - Mentioned in relation to their fixtures.
  • Bournemouth - Mentioned in relation to their fixtures.
  • West Ham - Mentioned in relation to their fixtures.
  • Manchester City - Mentioned in relation to their fixtures.
  • Arsenal - Mentioned in relation to their fixtures.
  • Chelsea - Mentioned in relation to their fixtures.
  • Wolves - Mentioned in relation to their fixtures.
  • Leeds - Mentioned in relation to their fixtures.
  • Burnley - Mentioned in relation to their fixtures.
  • Brighton - Mentioned in relation to their fixtures.
  • Sports Social Podcast Network - Mentioned as the network for the podcast.

Websites & Online Resources

  • https://bit.ly/FFSHarry - Linked for signing up to Fantasy Football Scout.
  • https://www.livefpl.net/prices - Linked for live FPL price changes.
  • https://www.fantasyfootballscout.co.u... - Linked for FFscout price changes.
  • https://fantasy.premierleague.com/lea... - Linked for a subscriber league.
  • https://fplchallenge.premierleague.co... - Linked for a fantasy challenge league.
  • https://www.planfpl.com - Linked for team planning.
  • https://www.fplrotationplanner.com - Linked for rotation planning.
  • https://plan.livefpl.net/prices - Linked for price change prediction.
  • https://www.fantasyfootballscout.co.u... - Linked for a free price change predictor.
  • http://wrapped.tips/subscribe - Linked for a weekly email newsletter.
  • https://linktr.ee/FPL_Harry - Linked to all FPL Harry's social media.
  • /@fplharry - Linked for channel membership.
  • /fpl_harry - Linked to FPL Harry's Twitter.
  • podcastchoices.com/adchoices - Mentioned for ad choices.

Other Resources

  • Fantasy Premier League (FPL) - The primary subject of the podcast.
  • Triple Captaincy Chip - Discussed as a strategic option in FPL.
  • Free Hit Chip - Discussed as a strategic option in FPL.
  • Bench Boost Chip - Discussed as a strategic option in FPL.
  • Wildcard Chip - Discussed as a strategic option in FPL.
  • Expected Goals Conceded (xGC) - Used as a metric for defensive performance.
  • Expected Goals (xG) - Used as a metric for offensive performance.
  • Africa Cup of Nations (AFCON) - Mentioned in relation to player availability.
  • 3-5-2 Formation - Discussed as a preferred FPL formation.

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