Fantasy Premier League Strategy for Fixture Congestion and Chip Optimization

FPL Harry · December 30, 2025 · Listen to Original Episode →

Original Title:

TL;DR

Prioritizing Phil Foden over Ryan Gravenberch for long-term value, despite Gravenberch's current cost-effectiveness, is advised due to Foden's consistent 90-minute playtime and superior eye-test performance.
Investing in Bukayo Saka and Declan Rice offers a strong Arsenal triple-up, surpassing David Raya's current utility and suggesting a move away from double defensive coverage.
Jurgen Timber is likely a precautionary substitution, with a strong expectation of his return, making him a preferred option over Gabriel unless further injury news emerges.
Erling Haaland remains the top captaincy choice for Game Week 19 due to Sunderland's defensive vulnerabilities, despite Mateo Kovacic playing for a team predicted to score more.
Using a Free Hit chip is recommended even for minor team adjustments, as it allows targeting favorable fixtures without sacrificing a regular transfer for future squad building.
The Bench Boost chip is the weakest, advising against significant transfers or hits solely to optimize it, unless those changes benefit the squad long-term.
Patrick Dorgu presents a high-risk, high-reward short-term punt for Manchester United's defense, offering excellent value for the next three fixtures but posing long-term selection issues.

Deep Dive

The current Fantasy Premier League landscape, particularly around Game Week 19, is defined by strategic decision-making under pressure from fixture congestion, player injuries, and the optimal use of remaining chips. This requires a nuanced approach to transfers and captaincy, as missteps can lead to significant point losses, while foresight can unlock substantial gains.

The immediate concern for many managers revolves around Arsenal's defensive options, especially with Jurriën Timber flagged. While Gabriel appears a strong replacement, his ability to consistently start three games in quick succession is uncertain. This defensive fluidity extends to Manchester City, where the value proposition of Phil Foden is being challenged by the cheaper, yet less minutes-reliable, Riyad Mahrez. Captaincy choices are also complex, with Haaland and Cunha presenting strong options, but Doku emerging as a potential differential punt, fueled by Manchester United's predicted high goal output and Sunderland's recent defensive frailties. Injury news is significant, with Bruno Fernandes ruled out and updates on Calafiori and Timber suggesting caution. For managers with chips remaining, this gameweek is critical. The Free Hit is recommended even for teams that appear strong, as it allows for targeted exploitation of favorable fixtures without long-term squad commitment. Triple Captaincy is primarily advised for Haaland, with Cunha as a secondary option. Bench Boost should be deployed if the bench is reasonably set up, avoiding costly transfers solely for one-week gains. The Wildcard is the highest priority chip for those needing significant squad overhauls.

Ultimately, the optimal strategy hinges on balancing short-term gains from favorable fixtures and player form against long-term squad structure and the impending impact of the African Cup of Nations. Managers must carefully consider the longevity of their transfers, particularly for players like Doku whose immediate appeal may be overshadowed by future squad limitations. The decision between established premium assets like Saka and emerging value options like Cunha or Gordon will dictate success in this congested period.

Action Items

Audit Arsenal defense: Assess starting probability for Gabriel and Timber across three upcoming fixtures (GW19-21).
Track Foden vs. Turkish minutes: Monitor playing time for both midfielders over the next 3-5 game weeks to inform value decisions.
Analyze Man Utd defensive options: Evaluate short-term punt viability of Dorgu against long-term reliability of Dalot for the next 3-5 game weeks.
Measure captaincy variance: Calculate goal/assist probability for Haaland and Cunha over the next 3 game weeks to refine captaincy choices.
Evaluate chip strategy: Determine optimal timing for Free Hit, Triple Captain, and Bench Boost based on upcoming fixture congestion and team structure.

Key Quotes

"game weeks 19, 20 and 21 taking space in just eight days there is so much fpl happening so many of us are using transfers and there are injuries happening all over the place particularly in defense we'll discuss everything the last week to use your chips what you should be doing with a free hit wild card triple captain maybe if you still got the bench boost with some issues like jurian timber in we'll have a look at my team everything benching rankings players to buy your game week 19 complete guide"

FPL Harry introduces the intense schedule of upcoming game weeks, highlighting the strategic importance of chip usage and the impact of player injuries, particularly in defense. He sets the stage for a comprehensive guide to Game Week 19, promising to cover team selections, player rankings, and transfer strategies.

"to be honest this question is particularly relevant on monday evening because gabriel looks like he might rise in price and timber might fall in price so if you've not made the transfer early on monday evening i'm not sure i'd be going from one to the other i'm not certain gabriel will start three games in the space of a week which is really what arsenal have in game week 19 20 and 21 and it sounds like timber's left out as just a precaution for the game against brighton at the weekend and i do expect him to return at home to aston villa into the arsenal lineup and i plan on keeping him in my team"

FPL Harry advises caution regarding Arsenal defensive transfers, noting the potential price changes for Gabriel and Timber. He suggests that Jurien Timber's absence might be precautionary and expects his return, making him a preferable option over Gabriel if one is considering a transfer due to fixture congestion.

"the next question is around what the best arsenal triple up is so i think gabriel once he's fully fit and back available goes straight into it and then i have to think you pick two of the remaining four players who i think are good options at the moment timber calafiori declan rice and gabriel now there's no david raya in here do i think he's a definite sell no but do i think he's in the best options at the moment also no"

FPL Harry discusses optimal Arsenal player selections, recommending Gabriel as a core inclusion once fit. He then outlines other strong options like Timber, Calafiori, and Declan Rice, while noting that David Raya, though not a definite sell, is not currently among the top choices for a team build.

"the final one is around turkey and phil foden and phil foden up to 9 million now and his returns over the past couple of games have not been what we've wanted them to be based on what he was doing just a couple of weeks ago and his cheaper teammate in ryan turkey is looking very very good the big difference between them though still remains the minutes turkey is getting early subs whereas phil foden is playing pretty much 90 minutes every game"

FPL Harry compares Phil Foden and Ryan Gravenberch, acknowledging Foden's increased price and recent dip in form. He highlights Gravenberch's good value but points out the significant difference in playing time, with Foden consistently playing full matches while Gravenberch is often substituted early.

"now you're probably thinking harry that's crazy you'd never captain doku and that's probably the case but i also wouldn't be captaining saka or etebo this week i do think haaland and kunya are the best two options for game week 19 but doku is expected to start again for man united and most likely back as part of the front three particularly with mason mount still being a doubt he scored against newcastle he had good underlying data there's a good clean sheet potential he has a 23 chance of getting a goal or an assist and you got back on against newcastle there were a lot of things going for doku as a bit of a one week punt if you wanted to do something crazy as part of your captaincy"

FPL Harry addresses the unconventional captaincy choice of Doku, admitting it's a risky punt. He identifies Haaland and Cunha as the primary captaincy options for Game Week 19 but explains Doku's potential appeal due to expected starts, recent performance, and favorable underlying statistics, framing it as a "one-week punt."

"in terms of injury news unfortunately i don't have much to bring you a lot of the press conferences were taking place on tuesday and if they are a lot of them are just pre records from what the managers said over the weekend we're not really left with very much information on a lot of the players we're left on looking at training photos we're left seeing what the manager said last week trying to predict timelines seeing what they said over the weekend looking at social media so these are the best guesses on a few of the key points but it doesn't look like we're going to get much more information between now and the deadline"

FPL Harry explains the difficulty in obtaining definitive injury updates due to the timing of press conferences and reliance on indirect information. He notes that managers' weekend statements and social media activity are the primary sources, leading to educated guesses rather than concrete news before the deadline.

Resources

External Resources

Books

"The Fantasy Football Scout Members Area" - Referenced for player statistics and rankings.

Articles & Papers

"Fantasy Premier League Tips 2025/26" (Episode Title) - Discussed as the primary topic of the episode.

People

Tito - Mentioned in relation to Tito's Handmade Vodka.
Kevin Cole - Mentioned as a guest on the podcast.
Jurgen Timber - Discussed in relation to potential injury and transfer options.
Gabriel - Discussed in relation to potential transfer options and starting availability.
David Raya - Discussed as a potential sell and a transfer option.
Declan Rice - Mentioned as a good option for Arsenal's triple up and a midfielder to buy.
Phil Foden - Discussed in relation to his price, recent returns, and long-term value.
Ryan Turkey - Discussed in relation to his value and potential as a City team player.
Erling Haaland - Mentioned as a top captaincy option and a forward to buy.
Mateo Kova - Mentioned as a good alternative to Haaland for captaincy.
Mason Mount - Mentioned as a doubt for upcoming games.
Bruno Fernandes - Mentioned as being ruled out of a game.
Arteta - Mentioned in relation to press conferences.
Calafiori - Discussed in relation to potential injury and availability.
Danny Welbeck - Mentioned as returning to the Brighton team.
Minter - Mentioned as potentially starting a fixture.
Chris Richards - Discussed in relation to potential return timelines.
Glazer - Mentioned in relation to quotes about player availability.
Cucurella - Discussed in relation to a potential hamstring injury.
Reece James - Mentioned as offering better value in Chelsea's defense.
Chalobah - Mentioned as offering better value in Chelsea's defense.
Sanchez - Mentioned as offering better value in Chelsea's defense and as a goalkeeper option.
Lamond - Mentioned in benching rankings.
Pope - Mentioned as a long-term goalkeeper option for Newcastle.
Ramsdale - Mentioned in relation to Pope not taking his place back.
Donnarumma - Mentioned in benching rankings and as a goalkeeper option.
Alisson - Mentioned in benching rankings.
Sell - Mentioned in relation to John not taking his place back.
John - Mentioned in relation to Sell not taking his place back.
Henderson - Mentioned in benching rankings.
Leno - Mentioned in benching rankings.
Pickford - Mentioned as a goalkeeper to watch and a defender option.
Trabalka - Mentioned in benching rankings.
Ariola - Mentioned in benching rankings.
Vicario - Mentioned as a goalkeeper option and a defender option.
Martinez - Mentioned in benching rankings.
Perri - Mentioned in benching rankings.
Petrovic - Mentioned in benching rankings.
Jose Sa - Mentioned as taking the place from Johnston.
Johnston - Mentioned in relation to Jose Sa taking his place.
Thiago - Mentioned as a player to start.
Raul Jimenez - Mentioned as a player to start and a Fulham attacker.
Jared Bowen - Mentioned as a player to start and a forward option.
Harry Wilson - Mentioned as a player to start, a midfielder option, and a Fulham attacker.
Bruno Guimaraes - Mentioned as a player to start and a midfielder option.
Joelinton - Mentioned as a player to start.
Mark - Mentioned as a player to start.
Minter - Mentioned as a player to start.
Heaton - Mentioned as a cheap option for Manchester United and a bench option.
Michael Keane - Mentioned as a defender option and a player to hold.
Tarkowski - Mentioned as a defender option and a better option than Pickford.
Gravenberch - Mentioned as becoming popular with upcoming fixtures.
Malick Chou - Mentioned as a defender option and a better option than Lewis Hall.
Lewis Hall - Mentioned as a defender option with good attacking threat but injury prone.
Calvert Lewin - Mentioned as a forward option offering great value.
Charg - Mentioned as a forward option.
Voltemar - Mentioned as a forward option.
Marcus Gyew - Mentioned as a forward option and a cheap option.
Obi - Mentioned as a forward option and a cheaper option than Gyew.
Salah - Mentioned as an attacking player option for a free hit draft.
Jordan - Mentioned as an attacking player option for a free hit draft.
Virgil van Dijk - Mentioned as an alternative to Foden.
Anthony Gordon - Mentioned as a midfielder option for a free hit draft.
Ekitike - Mentioned as a forward option.
Rob Green - Mentioned as a goalkeeper option.
Dubravka - Mentioned as a goalkeeper option.
Branthwaite - Mentioned in relation to Michael Keane's longevity.
Estevão - Mentioned as a potential punt.
Rodon - Mentioned as a potential punt.
Amad - Mentioned in relation to Dorgu being back on the bench.
Dalot - Mentioned as a safer longer term punt.
Amarin - Mentioned in relation to Dorgu's starting position.
Semenyo - Mentioned as a player to sell and a potential starter.
Grealish - Mentioned as not being in the squad but expected to return.
Andersen - Mentioned as a defender option and a cheap option.
Van Heck - Mentioned as a defender option.
Van den Berg - Mentioned as a defender option.
Van de Ven - Mentioned as a defender option.
Sterling - Mentioned as a defender option.
Rogers - Mentioned as a midfielder option.
O'riley - Mentioned as a midfielder option.
Potts - Mentioned as a cheap midfielder option.
Mukiele - Mentioned as a defender option.
Adarabioyo - Mentioned as a defender option.
Senesi - Mentioned as a defender option.
Estevão - Mentioned as a cheap option.
Gudmundsson - Mentioned as a defender option.
Patrick Dorgu - Mentioned as a defender option and a short-term punt.
Richarlison - Mentioned as a player to bench.
Anson - Mentioned as a player to bench.
Doug - Mentioned in relation to Liberty Mutual.
Lemo - Mentioned in relation to Liberty Mutual.

Organizations & Institutions

Tito's Handmade Vodka - Mentioned as a product.
Fifth Generation Inc. - Mentioned as the distiller and bottler of Tito's.
Blue Apron - Mentioned as a meal delivery service.
Arsenal - Mentioned in relation to player availability and team strategy.
Manchester United - Mentioned in relation to player availability and team strategy.
City - Mentioned in relation to player availability and team strategy.
Newcastle - Mentioned in relation to player availability and team strategy.
Wolves - Mentioned in relation to player availability and team strategy.
Brighton - Mentioned in relation to player availability and team strategy.
Aston Villa - Mentioned in relation to player availability and team strategy.
Fulham - Mentioned in relation to player availability and team strategy.
Chelsea - Mentioned in relation to player availability and team strategy.
Bournemouth - Mentioned in relation to player availability and team strategy.
Nottingham Forest - Mentioned in relation to player availability and team strategy.
Everton - Mentioned in relation to player availability and team strategy.
Leeds - Mentioned in relation to player availability and team strategy.
Burnley - Mentioned in relation to player availability and team strategy.
Crystal Palace - Mentioned in relation to team defense.
Liverpool - Mentioned in relation to upcoming fixtures.
Spurs - Mentioned in relation to keeping a clean sheet.
West Ham - Mentioned in relation to upcoming fixtures.
Liberty Mutual - Mentioned in relation to car insurance.
Menards - Mentioned in relation to home improvement and lighting.

Websites & Online Resources

blueapron.com - Mentioned for meal delivery service.
menards.com - Mentioned for weekly flyer and deals.
libertymutual.com - Mentioned for car insurance.

Other Resources

FPL (Fantasy Premier League) - The main subject of the episode.
Chips - Mentioned in relation to game strategy (Free Hit, Wild Card, Triple Captain, Bench Boost).
Free Hit - A chip discussed for game strategy.
Wild Card - A chip discussed for game strategy.
Triple Captain - A chip discussed for game strategy.
Bench Boost - A chip discussed for game strategy.
African Cup of Nations - Mentioned in relation to player availability.
Expected Goals (xG) - Mentioned in relation to player and team performance.
Expected Goals Conceded (xGC) - Mentioned in relation to team defense.
Expected Goals or Assists (xG/A) - Mentioned in relation to player performance.
Clean Sheet - Mentioned in relation to defensive performance.
LED Light Bulbs - Mentioned as a product from Fight Electric.
Car Insurance - Mentioned as a product from Liberty Mutual.