Fantasy Premier League: Fixture, Data, and Availability Strategy for Gameweek 17 - Episode Hero Image

Fantasy Premier League: Fixture, Data, and Availability Strategy for Gameweek 17

FPL Harry · · Listen to Original Episode →
Original Title:

TL;DR

  • Prioritizing Manchester City players like Phil Foden and Erling Haaland is crucial due to their top-tier fixture ticker and strong season-long attacking and defensive data, offering high potential for returns.
  • Investing in defenders like Ollie Watkins and Calafiori offers significant value, combining attacking threat and consistent minutes, making them superior to more expensive or less reliable options.
  • Manchester United's attacking potential is projected to regress due to key players departing for the African Cup of Nations, necessitating caution despite individual strong performers like Bruno Fernandes.
  • Bournemouth players, while offering short-term punt potential against weaker opposition, require a clear exit strategy by Game Week 18 or 19 due to a difficult upcoming fixture run.
  • Midfielders like Bukayo Saka, despite less favorable expected goal data, remain valuable due to consistent assists and bonus points, making them a strong consideration for team upgrades.
  • Forwards such as Julian Álvarez and Evan Ferguson present compelling options for teams needing reliable scoring, offering strong minutes and favorable long-term fixtures.
  • Defensive options from teams like Everton and Liverpool, such as Tarkowski and Konaté, provide cost-effective solutions with good upcoming fixtures, balancing budget with potential clean sheets.

Deep Dive

This briefing synthesizes key Fantasy Premier League (FPL) transfer targets and strategic considerations for Gameweek 17, focusing on player selection based on upcoming fixtures and underlying statistical data. The core implication is that successful FPL management requires a dynamic approach, constantly aligning player assets with favorable match schedules and performance indicators, while also anticipating player availability shifts due to international tournaments and injuries.

The analysis highlights Manchester City as a prime target due to their strong fixture run and consistent attacking output, making Phil Foden and Erling Haaland essential considerations. Manchester United presents a mixed bag; while Bruno Fernandes remains a strong pick, the impending absence of key players for the Africa Cup of Nations necessitates caution regarding other United assets, particularly defensively. Arsenal's defensive solidity, led by Bukayo Saka, is also noted, though their recent defensive data shows a slight regression. Conversely, teams like Newcastle and Chelsea are identified for potential player rotation or avoidance, with Newcastle's defense showing a notable decline in expected goals conceded and Chelsea's Cole Palmer facing minute restrictions due to injury.

Second-order implications emerge from player availability and fixture difficulty. The Africa Cup of Nations significantly impacts teams like Manchester United and Nottingham Forest, creating opportunities for other players to step up or for managers to pivot away from affected assets. For instance, the potential absence of key forwards like Amad Diallo and Bryan Mbeumo from Manchester United, and Sacha Boey from Bayern Munich, means managers must look for alternative attacking options. Similarly, injuries to key defenders like Newcastle's Dan Burn and Pope necessitate a re-evaluation of defensive lineups, potentially favoring cheaper rotational options or players with less competition for minutes, such as Malick Thiaw or Ben Heck. The analysis also suggests that while short-term punts on teams with favorable immediate fixtures (like Bournemouth) can be viable, a long-term strategy requires considering teams with sustained positive runs from Gameweek 18 onwards, such as West Ham.

Ultimately, the strategic takeaway is that successful FPL team construction for Gameweek 17 involves a nuanced understanding of fixture advantages, statistical performance, and the cascading effects of player availability. This requires managers to balance established premium assets with opportunistic, budget-friendly selections that capitalize on specific fixture windows and anticipate potential lineup shifts, particularly in the context of upcoming international competitions and injury concerns.

Action Items

  • Audit player selection: For 3-5 high-variance players, calculate correlation between win-loss record and underlying performance metrics (e.g., xG, xA).
  • Create player projection model: Forecast performance for 5-10 key players based on fixture difficulty and historical data.
  • Measure transfer impact: Track the performance of 3-5 recent transfers against their expected contribution.
  • Analyze team fixture difficulty: For the next 5 gameweeks, rank team fixture difficulty using a 1-5 scale.
  • Evaluate player rotation risk: For 3-5 players with uncertain minutes, assess impact of potential rotation on performance.

Key Quotes

"if you're looking to buy players this week someone like a phil foden if you don't own him taking a punt on someone like a riyad mahrez or going defensively for someone like an ollie watkins are definitely going to be top priority if you want to invest in brentford and you didn't go to toney one of their defenders or a kevin schade and now he's back from suspension they are right up there and second in the fixture ticker"

FPL Harry highlights Phil Foden, Riyad Mahrez, and Ollie Watkins as top transfer targets for Gameweek 17 due to favorable fixtures. He also notes that Brentford's defenders or Kevin Schade are strong options, especially with Schade returning from suspension.


"manchester city have created the most xg so far this season and with the upcoming fixtures they've got and can understand why they would be one of the teams to target they're also third for expected goals conceded again with the best fixtures manchester city are definitely a top priority this week"

FPL Harry emphasizes Manchester City's strong offensive and defensive statistics, noting their league-leading expected goals (xG) and third-best expected goals conceded. He concludes that due to their excellent upcoming fixtures, Manchester City players should be a primary consideration for transfers.


"in midfield it really is the big two at the moment it is phil foden and it is bruno fernandes i've been asked to pick between them if you could only buy one this week and based off the fixture i would be buying phil foden"

FPL Harry identifies Phil Foden and Bruno Fernandes as the two standout midfielders currently available for transfer. When forced to choose between them for Gameweek 17, FPL Harry recommends Phil Foden based on his team's fixture schedule.


"now looking at defenders to buy this week it is the manchester city trio with west ham at home in terms of output ollie watkins has the highest expected goal involvement per 90 with 0 25 and also ake has just gone to afcon i don't really see any reason to buy any of the others over buying him unless you just want to go for a differential for the sake of having someone different to what most people are buying"

FPL Harry suggests that Manchester City defenders are strong options for the upcoming Gameweek, particularly noting Ollie Watkins for his high expected goal involvement. He points out that Ake's departure for AFCON might open up opportunities, but still favors Watkins unless a manager specifically seeks a differential pick.


"finally it's soler we don't know an injury update on him he's also on four yellow cards however if he is available for spurs away before wolves at home and leeds at home he should definitely be on radar again"

FPL Harry mentions Soler as a potential midfield target, contingent on his availability due to an unspecified injury and potential suspension from accumulated yellow cards. He highlights that if Soler is fit for upcoming favorable fixtures against Spurs, Wolves, and Leeds, he warrants consideration.


"wrapping up with a potential free hit draft we've gone with petrovic in goal at home to burnley i would love to go with sini but there are other defenders i'd like going with timber and we're going with calafiori we're doubling up on arsenal because everton are likely to be without indai jonesbury hall and maybe even grealish and maybe even barry on top of that"

FPL Harry outlines a potential Free Hit draft, starting with Petrovic in goal against Burnley. He expresses a preference for Timber and Calafiori in defense, and explains a double-up on Arsenal defenders due to Everton's significant injury list.

Resources

External Resources

Books

  • "The Good Life" - Mentioned in relation to deals at Meyer.

Articles & Papers

  • "Fantasy Football Scout" - Referenced as a tool for planning teams and predicting price changes.

Tools & Software

  • Plan FPL - Mentioned as a tool for planning FPL teams.
  • FPL Rotation Planner - Referenced as a tool used in videos.
  • LiveFPL.net/prices - Mentioned as a price change predictor tool.
  • Fantasy Football Scout (website) - Referenced as a free price change predictor.

Websites & Online Resources

  • depop.com - Mentioned as a platform for selling children's outgrown items.
  • libertymutual.com - Referenced for customizing car insurance.
  • mperks.com - Mentioned for deals and exclusions related to Meyer.
  • fantasy.premierleague.com - Linked for a subscriber league code.
  • fplchallenge.premierleague.com - Linked for a fantasy challenge league code.
  • bit.ly/FFSHarry - Referenced as a link to join Fantasy Football Scout.
  • linktr.ee/FPL_Harry - Mentioned as a link to all of FPL Harry's social media.
  • wrapped.tips/subscribe - Referenced for signing up for a weekly email newsletter.
  • indeed.com/podcast13 - Mentioned as a URL for a sponsored job credit.

Podcasts & Audio

  • FPL Harry - The name of the podcast.

Other Resources

  • African Cup of Nations (AFCON) - Mentioned as a reason for player absences.
  • Gameweek 17 - Referenced as the current FPL gameweek being discussed.
  • Gameweek 18 - Mentioned in relation to future fixture considerations.
  • Gameweek 19 - Mentioned in relation to future fixture considerations.
  • Wildcard - Referenced as an FPL chip.
  • Free Hit - Referenced as an FPL chip.
  • Expected Goals (xG) - Mentioned as a data metric for team performance.
  • Expected Goals Conceded (xGc) - Mentioned as a data metric for team performance.
  • Expected Goal Involvement (xGI) - Mentioned as a data metric for player performance.
  • Bonus Points - Referenced as a scoring element in FPL.
  • Triple Captain - Mentioned as an FPL chip.
  • 4-4-2 formation - Discussed as a potential FPL formation.
  • 3-5-2 formation - Discussed as a potential FPL formation.
  • 4-4 million option - Referenced as a price point for a player.
  • 7.5 million - Referenced as a price point for a player.
  • 7.2 - Referenced as a price point for a player.
  • 4 yellow cards - Mentioned as a condition for player suspension.
  • 40% Off - Mentioned as a discount for Fantasy Football Scout.
  • 5% off - Mentioned as an additional discount code.
  • $10 reward - Mentioned as a benefit for purchasing gift cards at Meyer.
  • 10,000 m perks points - Mentioned as a reward for purchasing gift cards at Meyer.
  • 30% off - Mentioned as a discount on select Lego playsets at Meyer.
  • Buy one get one for a dollar - Mentioned as a deal on select Yankee Candle products at Meyer.
  • 75 sponsored job credit - Offered as a promotional credit for Indeed.

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