Data-Driven Fantasy Premier League Strategy: Fixtures, xG, and Player Value

Key Quotes

"The first thing that stands out is manchester city are now right at the top of the fixture ticker they weren't quite up there last week because of the fixture they had to crystal palace but they ended up winning that 3 0 regardless if you're looking to buy players this week someone like a phil foden if you don't own him taking a punt on someone like a riyahd mahrez or going defensively for someone like an oleksandr zinchenko are definitely going to be top priority."

FPL Harry highlights Manchester City's favorable upcoming fixtures, indicating they are a prime target for player acquisitions. Harry suggests specific players like Phil Foden, Riyad Mahrez, and Oleksandr Zinchenko as top priorities for FPL teams based on this fixture advantage.

"Looking at defenders to buy this week it is the manchester city trio with west ham at home in terms of output oleksandr zinchenko has the highest expected goal involvement per 90 with 0 25 and also nathan aké has just gone to afcon i don't really see any reason to buy any of the others over buying him unless you just want to go for a differential for the sake of having someone different to what most people are buying he's also the most popular so you're likely to gain the most value on him but if you did want to look elsewhere nunes at a similar price has slight competition for someone like a kyle walker at right back and john stones plays pretty much every game but he is slightly more expensive than the other two i just think that oleksandr zinchenko is the obvious one to go with with the attacking data being nailed at the moment and the amount of minutes he looks like he can play outside of that at arsenal i quite like calum chambers."

FPL Harry identifies Oleksandr Zinchenko as a top defensive target due to his high expected goal involvement and favorable fixtures, even with Nathan Aké departing for AFCON. Harry also notes Calum Chambers as a good option for Arsenal, suggesting he offers value and potential rotation benefits.

"Now looking at defenders to buy this week it is the manchester city trio with west ham at home in terms of output oleksandr zinchenko has the highest expected goal involvement per 90 with 0 25 and also nathan aké has just gone to afcon i don't really see any reason to buy any of the others over buying him unless you just want to go for a differential for the sake of having someone different to what most people are buying he's also the most popular so you're likely to gain the most value on him but if you did want to look elsewhere nunes at a similar price has slight competition for someone like a kyle walker at right back and john stones plays pretty much every game but he is slightly more expensive than the other two i just think that oleksandr zinchenko is the obvious one to go with with the attacking data being nailed at the moment and the amount of minutes he looks like he can play outside of that at arsenal i quite like calum chambers."

FPL Harry emphasizes Oleksandr Zinchenko as the premier defensive choice due to his strong attacking output metrics and consistent minutes, particularly with Nathan Aké unavailable. Harry also points to Calum Chambers as a viable alternative from Arsenal, highlighting his potential for rotation and affordability.

"Moving into midfield it really is the big two at the moment it is phil foden and it is bruno fernandes i'll be last to pick between them if you could only buy one this week and based off the fixture i would be buying phil foden now of course there are cup games for manchester city on wednesday evening so keep an eye with the amount of minutes that someone like phil foden plays in that but with mahrez going off to afcon with the injury to doku i don't expect us to have any concerns about minutes for phil on the horizon bruno fernandes is next if you want to double up i would have a look at matheus cunha again a slight word of caution without the likes of brian and burmo and amad i do expect them to get a little bit worse plus they go away to villa and at home to newcastle and away at villa they're also without casemiro i don't think this is the best fixture for some of those man united assets but still long term i'm liking them and cunha's attacking data over the past couple of games has been really good but again he has been playing up front while sessegnon has been out and i expect sessegnon to come back in with cunha dropping back to number 10 where he wasn't quite as good so just a little bit of caution but i still like him as probably a third or fourth midfielder if you have the money though i still like saka some of the upcoming fixtures for them are not as good his expected goal data is not quite what we want but he is picking up assists and he is great for bonus and we've seen that in game week 16 with the two assists and the three bonus points that he got with that."

FPL Harry identifies Phil Foden and Bruno Fernandes as the top midfield options, favoring Foden due to favorable fixtures, while acknowledging potential minute concerns due to cup games. Harry also discusses Matheus Cunha with caution regarding Manchester United's squad depth and upcoming fixtures, and mentions Bukayo Saka's assist potential despite less impressive underlying data.

"Now wrapping up with a potential free hit draft we've gone with petrović in goal at home to burnley i would love to go with s n but there are other defenders i'd like going with timber and we're going with calafiori we're doubling up on arsenal because everton are likely to be without ndidi doucouré hall and maybe even gueye and maybe even werner on top of that areola is the manchester city defender we've gone with saka foden semenyo and harry wilson if you don't have the budget for this for whatever reason go tavernier over semenyo and save yourself a bit of money and go for a bit of a differential as well up front we've gone with welbeck thiago and haaland if there's a midfielder or your defender that you also want to play in a 4 4 2 or a 3 5 2 welbeck is definitely the one i would wellbeck is definitely the one i would look to drop but i still don't mind that fixture they've got and he likes to score goals and he did get a brace in game week 16 but you could look at playing a tavarner over him and playing a 3 5 2 or a player back four with someone like a sneesey or an anson who are on the bench in this draft that is everything we've done defenders midfielders forwards on top of the fixtures on top of the data and we've also looked at a wildcard and free hit thank you all very much for joining let me know any questions that i haven't answered and i'll discuss them in either my team selection or my complete guide where my triple captain is still active on