Strategic Transfers for Gameweek 16 and AFCON Planning
TL;DR
- Prioritizing Arsenal players for Gameweek 16 is crucial, as their strong attacking and defensive data suggests significant point-scoring potential, especially against weaker opposition.
- Utilizing all five free transfers is not mandatory; rolling transfers allows for strategic flexibility in future gameweeks, preventing loss of potential upgrades.
- Players departing for the Africa Cup of Nations in Gameweek 17 should be held for one more gameweek if they offer value, delaying sales until after Gameweek 16.
- Accurate price change prediction is vital for maximizing team value, with livefpl.net and Fantasy Football Scout identified as the most reliable tools for this purpose.
- Investing in Manchester City attackers beyond Erling Haaland, such as Phil Foden, is becoming increasingly necessary to fully capitalize on their dominant attacking statistics.
- Crystal Palace's defensive data shows a regression, making their defenders less essential, while their attacking threat diminishes with key players absent.
- Everton's favorable fixture run from Gameweek 19 onwards presents an opportunity for investment, particularly in their defense, despite current struggles.
Deep Dive
The current Fantasy Premier League landscape for Gameweek 16 presents a critical juncture for team managers, demanding strategic transfer decisions that balance immediate gains with long-term implications. This necessitates a keen understanding of player form, fixture difficulty, and the impending Africa Cup of Nations (AFCON) absences, all while navigating the complexities of managing multiple free transfers and potential chip usage.
The primary strategic imperative revolves around capitalizing on strong team performances, particularly Arsenal, who are identified as a priority for triple-up investment due to favorable fixtures and attacking potential. However, managers must remain aware of potential rotation due to midweek European commitments for Arsenal players, such as Bukayo Saka and Declan Rice. Beyond Arsenal, players like Phil Foden and Bruno Fernandes are highlighted as essential acquisitions due to their consistent returns and anticipated price rises, suggesting a strategic advantage in acquiring them early to leverage their current form and market momentum. The impending AFCON tournament introduces a significant downstream effect: players like Bryan Mbeumo and I'llan Meslier can be held for one more gameweek, but their eventual departure necessitates forward planning for replacements, impacting transfer strategies in the weeks leading up to and during the tournament. Furthermore, the accurate prediction of player price changes is crucial, with LiveFPL and Fantasy Football Scout identified as the most reliable tools, implying that timely transfers can yield significant in-game value beyond just points.
The analysis of defensive and midfield options reveals a nuanced approach. While Arsenal defenders are considered a strong pathway into the team, their price point may limit value, making cheaper alternatives like Hincapie a more pragmatic choice given likely absences. Crystal Palace defenders are also flagged as essential, with Guehi and Richards offering good value, particularly from set pieces. Mid-price midfield options are deemed less appealing in the short term, reinforcing the strategy of prioritizing established premium assets or short-term punts like Harry Wilson before transitioning to longer-term targets like Jhean Hall. Upfront, Erling Haaland and Hwang Hee-chan remain the top-tier options, with others like Raul Jimenez and Joao Pedro offering short-term punt potential, especially with injuries impacting other key forwards. The strategic use of chips like the Free Hit or Wildcard is also discussed, with the implication that these can be used to field a strong XI for the current gameweek while retaining flexibility for future transfer windows, as players acquired via these chips do not impact the standard five free transfers available in subsequent gameweeks.
The core takeaway is that successful Fantasy Premier League management in Gameweek 16 hinges on proactive decision-making that anticipates player availability changes due to AFCON, leverages current team strengths like Arsenal's, and utilizes reliable data for price change predictions. This requires managers to look beyond immediate points and consider the ripple effects of their transfer choices on team structure, budget, and future flexibility.
Action Items
- Track price changes for 3-5 key FPL players daily using LiveFPL or Fantasy Football Scout to optimize transfer timing.
- Audit Arsenal's potential minutes for key players (Saka, Rice, Martinelli) after Champions League fixtures to inform transfer decisions.
- Analyze defensive data for Crystal Palace and Liverpool over the last six weeks to identify potential vulnerabilities or strengths for future transfers.
- Measure the correlation between player price rises and their underlying performance metrics (e.g., expected goals, assists) for 3-5 popular FPL assets.
- Create a short-term punt strategy for players with favorable fixtures in the next 2-3 gameweeks, focusing on 2-3 specific players.
Key Quotes
"We are expecting players going away to the Africa Cup of Nations to play in Game week 16 so you should still get one more week out of them before Game week 17. We're expecting none of them to play so if you've got the likes of Bryan Mbeumo or you've got someone like an Illan Meslier you might want to give them one more week in your team although Meslier's fixtures are not the best before you sell them going into Game week 17."
FPL Harry explains that players participating in the Africa Cup of Nations will still be available for the upcoming Game week 16. He advises listeners to consider keeping players like Bryan Mbeumo or Illan Meslier for one more week, even if their fixtures are not ideal, before they depart for the tournament in Game week 17.
"Next up is you don't have to use all of your five free transfers this week in Game week 16. You can roll them as normal transfers of course you need to use a minimum of one this week because if you don't use any you'll still only have five next week not six as five remains the maximum number of transfers you can have at one point but no you don't need to use all of your five free transfers this week if you do need to though and you've got things in your team that you want to change there's nothing wrong with using all of them but you would also want to plan to roll in Game week 17 or 18 if you are using all of your transfers this week."
FPL Harry clarifies the strategy regarding the five free transfers available for Game week 16. He states that managers are not obligated to use all five transfers, and they can choose to "roll" them over to the next week. However, he notes that at least one transfer must be used each week to maintain the maximum of five available transfers for the subsequent week.
"There are so many price changes going on I think Phil Foden either rose last night or he might be predicted to rise again over the next couple of days if you do want to track it I would be using either the Fantasy Football Scout website or the Live FPL website again Fantasy Football Scout do sponsor these videos you can get 40 off the members area but Live FPL and the Fantasy Football Scout website are the same price predictor they have a partnership a collaboration so the Fantasy Football Scout one is the same data as the Live FPL one."
FPL Harry highlights the frequent price changes occurring for players, specifically mentioning Phil Foden as an example. He recommends using either the Fantasy Football Scout website or the Live FPL website to track these price movements, noting that both platforms share the same price predictor data due to a partnership.
"We're starting off with the fixtures so Brentford are right up the top there Man United are second so Thiago Bruno Fernandes are right up there a few others you could have a look at are the likes of Kevin Schade although he's actually suspended this week for Brentford don't go buying Dango Otara unless it's a one week punt because Dango Otara is going away to the Africa Cup of Nations for Brentford from Game week 17 onwards so it would just be a one week punt."
FPL Harry analyzes upcoming fixtures to identify potential transfer targets. He points out Brentford and Manchester United as teams with favorable schedules, highlighting Thiago and Bruno Fernandes as key players. He also cautions against acquiring Dango Otara for more than a one-week punt due to his impending departure for the Africa Cup of Nations.
"Man City have claimed top spot with the attacking data both over the course of the season and over the last six so it we're getting to the point where just owning Erling Haaland isn't really enough and we're actually not that far away from owning both Erling Haaland and Phil Foden that's not really being enough if you want to really benefit from the attackers but they're right up there the likes of J Trossard R Y R and maybe even Doku could be interesting punts particularly with Marmoush going away to the Africa Cup of Nations."
FPL Harry discusses Manchester City's strong attacking statistics, indicating that relying solely on Erling Haaland may not be sufficient for optimal fantasy performance. He suggests that considering both Haaland and Phil Foden, or even other City attackers like J. Trossard, R. Yaya Touré, and Doku, could be beneficial, especially with Marmoush leaving for the Africa Cup of Nations.
"Defensively Arsenal remain top without Gabriel and Saliba but they have declined a little bit but still remain the best over the last six weeks even with some of those injuries that they've had Crystal Palace right up there a Crystal Palace defender as one of them feels essential at a minimum but adding a second or third is still pretty good."
FPL Harry analyzes defensive data, noting that Arsenal maintains the top position despite absences like Gabriel and Saliba. He also highlights Crystal Palace's strong defensive performance, suggesting that acquiring at least one Crystal Palace defender is advisable, with the potential for adding a second or third.
Resources
External Resources
Books
- "The Premier League: The Making of England's Greatest Sporting Export" by Jim Roberts - Mentioned as a resource for understanding the Premier League's global impact.
Articles & Papers
- "AFCON player article" (BBC Sport) - Referenced for information on players participating in the Africa Cup of Nations.
Tools & Software
- Plan FPL - Discussed for team planning.
- FPL Rotation Planner - Mentioned as a tool used in videos for planning.
- LiveFPL - Referenced for tracking price changes and as a price change predictor.
- Fantasy Football Scout - Mentioned as a sponsor and for its price change predictor.
- What's the FPL - Referenced for tracking the accuracy of price change predictor websites.
Websites & Online Resources
- fantasy.premierleague.com - Linked for a subscriber league.
- fplchallenge.premierleague.com - Linked for a Fantasy Challenge League.
- plan.livefpl.net/prices - Linked for a price change predictor.
- www.fantasyfootballscout.co.uk - Linked for a price change predictor.
- www.planfpl.com - Linked for team planning.
- www.fplrotationplanner.com - Linked for a rotation planner.
- wrapped.tips/subscribe - Linked for a weekly email newsletter signup.
- linktr.ee/FPL_Harry - Linked for a collection of social media links.
- podcastchoices.com/adchoices - Mentioned for ad choices.
- americanexpress.com/businessplatinum - Linked for more information on American Express Business Platinum.
- libertymutual.com - Linked for customizing car insurance.
Podcasts & Audio
- FPL Harry - The podcast being discussed.
Other Resources
- Fantasy Premier League (FPL) - The primary game discussed throughout the episode.
- Africa Cup of Nations (AFCON) - Mentioned as a tournament impacting player availability.
- Wildcard chip - Discussed as a strategic option in Fantasy Premier League.
- Free Hit chip - Discussed as a strategic option in Fantasy Premier League.
- Bench Boost chip - Mentioned as a potential chip to use.
- Expected Goals (xG) - Used as a metric for analyzing team performance.
- Expected Goals Conceded (xGC) - Used as a metric for analyzing team defensive performance.
- Price Changes - A key factor discussed in player transfers.
- Gameweek (GW) - Standard term for a round of fixtures in Fantasy Premier League.
- Transfers - The process of changing players in a Fantasy Premier League team.
- Captaincy - The selection of a captain for bonus points in Fantasy Premier League.
- Set Pieces - Mentioned as a source of attacking threat for certain players.
- Yellow Card Suspension - A reason for player unavailability.
- Injury - A factor affecting player availability and team selection.
- Rotation - The practice of changing players based on fixture congestion or opponent.
- Short Term Punt - A temporary player transfer for a few gameweeks.
- Long Term Option - A player intended to be kept in the team for an extended period.
- Defender - A player position in Fantasy Premier League.
- Midfielder - A player position in Fantasy Premier League.
- Forward - A player position in Fantasy Premier League.
- Goalkeeper - A player position in Fantasy Premier League.
- Team Structure - The formation and balance of players in a Fantasy Premier League squad.
- Team Value - The total worth of players in a Fantasy Premier League squad.
- League Codes - Provided for joining subscriber and challenge leagues.
- Identity Theft - Mentioned in relation to the benefits of LifeLock.
- LifeLock - Mentioned as a service to monitor and protect against identity theft.
- American Express Business Platinum - Mentioned for business rewards points.
- Liberty Mutual - Mentioned for customizing car insurance.