Maximize Gameweek 15 Transfers for AFCON Player Absences
TL;DR
- Utilizing all available transfers in Game Week 15 maximizes future flexibility, as the upcoming AFCON tournament grants a maximum of five free transfers in Game Week 16, preventing accumulation beyond that limit.
- Prioritizing transfers that address potential AFCON absences a week early, rather than taking points hits, mitigates risk and preserves team value for the subsequent game week.
- Investing in Arsenal defenders offers a high probability of clean sheets over the next six game weeks, outperforming other teams due to their consistent defensive performance.
- Phil Foden's projected goal involvement over the next six game weeks, alongside Erling Haaland, positions him as a key offensive asset for Manchester City, justifying his acquisition.
- Selling Mateta is recommended due to his inconsistent minutes and difficult upcoming fixtures, with alternative forwards like Welbeck or Balotelli offering better short-term value.
- Captaincy choices for Game Week 15 should heavily favor Erling Haaland due to favorable fixtures, with Phil Foden as a secondary option, avoiding differentiation due to potential performance variability.
- Considering a double-up on Crystal Palace defense, specifically with Muñoz and potentially Calafiori, provides an economical yet effective defensive pairing with attacking upside.
Deep Dive
The upcoming Gameweek 15 in Fantasy Premier League presents a critical juncture for managers, primarily driven by the impending Africa Cup of Nations (AFCON) tournament. The core insight is that the upcoming surge in free transfers, increasing to five in Gameweek 16, necessitates proactive planning in Gameweek 15 to maximize player acquisition and avoid future disadvantages. Failing to utilize current transfers strategically will lead to a diminished capacity to adapt to player departures for AFCON and capitalize on new opportunities.
The primary implication of the increased free transfers in Gameweek 16 is the strategic imperative to use all available transfers in Gameweek 15. This is because rolling transfers will not allow managers to exceed the cap of five free transfers in any single week. Therefore, any transfers not made in Gameweek 15 will effectively be lost if they would push a manager beyond the five-transfer limit in a subsequent week. This situation is amplified by the fact that AFCON departures, while impacting Gameweek 17 significantly, are preceded by player availability in Gameweek 16, meaning the immediate need for AFCON-related transfers is slightly delayed but the preparation must occur now. Consequently, managers are advised against taking transfer hits (point deductions) in Gameweek 15 unless the incoming players offer a substantial and immediate upgrade over those being sold, given the impending influx of transfers. This also suggests a cautious approach to selling key players from teams like Manchester United, as their short-term fixtures remain favorable, and their potential replacements, like Phil Foden, may not offer a significant enough advantage to warrant a hit so close to the AFCON player availability window.
The analysis extends to specific player recommendations and strategic chip usage. While Erling Haaland remains the prime captaincy choice for Gameweek 15, the advice is to hold the Triple Captain chip for a potentially more favorable fixture against West Ham in Gameweek 17. For players facing difficult upcoming fixtures or declining form, such as Mateta, proactive transfers to more in-form or better-positioned players like Balotelli or Welbeck are recommended over wasting a transfer. The data suggests a strong outlook for Manchester City and Liverpool in terms of projected goals over the next six gameweeks, with Arsenal leading in projected clean sheets. This reinforces the rationale for investing in these teams' attacking and defensive assets, respectively. For instance, acquiring a second Arsenal defender is presented as a superior move to most other defensive transfers. In midfield, while Bukayo Saka is a top pick, the focus on Phil Foden and Kevin De Bruyne for Manchester City is highlighted due to their high projected goal output. Upfront, Haaland is the set-and-forget captain, with alternatives like Darwin Núñez and Ollie Watkins being considered for the forward line. Wildcard and Free Hit drafts reflect these priorities, emphasizing robust midfields and defenses from top-performing teams, while carefully managing budget constraints and potential benching risks.
The overarching takeaway is that proactive transfer management in Gameweek 15 is crucial for navigating the strategic complexities introduced by the AFCON tournament and the subsequent increase in free transfers. Managers who strategically use their current transfers to prepare for player absences and potential opportunities will be better positioned to maintain team strength and competitive advantage in the coming gameweeks, while those who delay will face compounded disadvantages.
Action Items
- Audit player availability: Track 5-10 key players for AFCON departure dates to inform transfer strategy for GW16 and GW17.
- Implement transfer planning: Use all available transfers in GW15 to maximize the benefit of the GW16 five-transfer allowance, preventing future transfer limitations.
- Evaluate transfer impact: For any planned "hit" transfers, project the expected points gain from new players versus points lost, considering AFCON impact over the next two gameweeks.
- Analyze forward performance: Track the conversion rate of big chances for forwards like Mateta, Thiago, and Welbeck over the next 3-5 games to inform transfer decisions beyond immediate fixture advantages.
Key Quotes
"and i know we've discussed this over the past couple of days in every video but it is the most important bit of information that i can give you this week and that is of course once again around the afcon cup of nations transfers if you've already watched the past couple of videos over the last few days thank you very much you might be one of those people who are seeing their youtube wrapped and seeing me in your top five channels if that's you thank you so much and if you're in the top point 5 or the top 5 of viewers if you're even watching this video thank you for your support"
FPL Harry emphasizes the critical importance of understanding the upcoming Africa Cup of Nations (AFCON) transfer implications for the current game week. He expresses gratitude to his viewers who have engaged with his content, highlighting their support through YouTube Wrapped features.
"so in game week 16 we will get up to a maximum of five free transfers everyone in the game will be capped out to the maximum of five no one gets more than five so if you rolled to next week and you've got four in the bank you still will only get an additional one to a maximum of five free transfers so as a result you need to be using all of your transfers in game week 15 to get the maximum benefit of plus five next week once the game updates going into game week 16"
FPL Harry explains the mechanics of free transfers in the game, noting that Game Week 16 will provide a maximum of five, regardless of any previously unused transfers. He advises players to utilize all available transfers in Game Week 15 to maximize the benefit of the upcoming five free transfers.
"i don't think there are very many transfers in the game that are really worth a hit this week and particularly because the game week 16 afcon transfers are just around the corner i don't think i'd be taking hits unless you really think that both of the players that you're bringing in are significantly better than the players that you are taking out if that's not the case i would just wait and do maybe one this week and do the second one as part of your game week 16 five free transfers"
FPL Harry advises against taking point deductions ("hits") for transfers in the current game week. He reasons that with the significant influx of five free transfers available in Game Week 16 due to AFCON, it is generally better to wait and make transfers then, unless a new player offers a substantial upgrade over an existing one.
"i would not be selling your united players if you've got a double up let's say you've got burmo and fernandes i can start to consider it a little bit more and let's say you're on free hit 16 then maybe i'd consider it even more because then it's just a one week shootout between burmo and phil foden but if you're still looking over the next two weeks and you've got burmo against wolves and then you've got burmo against bournemouth whereas you've got phil foden against sunderland where's the chance he doesn't start and then you've got him away at crystal palace i still think that burmo is better short term and fernandes remains a long term hold despite no returns in the past couple of games for him"
FPL Harry recommends holding onto Manchester United players like Bruno Fernandes and Marcus Rashford, even with recent disappointing performances. He suggests that their upcoming fixtures offer better short-term potential than switching to players like Phil Foden, and that Fernandes remains a valuable long-term asset.
"so for me it's all about haaland and it's whether you should triple captain him if you've still got the chip available i still think that west ham at home in game week 17 is a better option for the triple captaincy than it is on haaland at home to sunderland they've played midweek and of course city have had that big fixture against real madrid midweek which will definitely be focusing on now sunderland at home is a fixture that pep has said he thinks is difficult he needs to take seriously and we've seen that in the press conference again today so i don't think haaland is going to get rested"
FPL Harry identifies Erling Haaland as the primary captaincy choice for the current game week, but suggests that Game Week 17 against West Ham might be a more opportune moment for the Triple Captain chip. He notes that despite Pep Guardiola's respect for Sunderland, Haaland is unlikely to be rested due to Manchester City's fixture congestion.
"so in terms of goals over the next six weeks city are first followed by liverpool then arsenal then man united newcastle brighton chelsea and brentford now of course it's not as simple as just buy players from teams who are expected to score the most goals because city might have more goal share shared around particularly liverpool do whereas if you look at someone like a brentford they're a bit lower down but toney mops up a lot of those chances but i think it's just quite interesting to look at particularly you've got a few games in there if you look at newcastle they're high up but it's really weighted to a couple of games particularly burnley at home so a good one if you're on a free hit whereas manchester city particularly are predicted to do well in every game"
FPL Harry presents data on projected team goals over the next six game weeks, with Manchester City, Liverpool, and Arsenal leading the list. He cautions that simply selecting players from the highest-scoring teams isn't always optimal, as goal distribution varies, and highlights that Newcastle's high ranking is influenced by specific favorable fixtures.
Resources
External Resources
Books
Videos & Documentaries
Research & Studies
- FPL Article (Premier League) - Mentioned as a source for information on players affected by AFCON.
Tools & Software
- Fantasy Football Scout - Referenced for a discount code (FFSHarry5) and a price change predictor tool.
- Plan FPL - Mentioned as a tool for future team planning.
- FPL Rotation Planner - Referenced as a tool used in videos.
Articles & Papers
People
- Harry Daniels - Host of the FPL Harry podcast.
Organizations & Institutions
- Premier League - Mentioned in relation to the FPL game and an article about AFCON.
- Liberty Mutual - Mentioned in a commercial break.
- Goldbond - Mentioned in a commercial break.
- Tito's Handmade Vodka - Mentioned in a commercial break.
- Engage Partnerships - Contact for partnerships and sponsorships.
- Fifth Generation Inc. - Distillery for Tito's Handmade Vodka.
Courses & Educational Resources
Websites & Online Resources
- fantasy.premierleague.com - Linked for league codes.
- fplchallenge.premierleague.com - Linked for a fantasy challenge league code.
- bit.ly/FFSHarry - Link to Fantasy Football Scout.
- planfpl.com - Link to Plan FPL.
- fplrotationplanner.com - Link to FPL Rotation Planner.
- fantasyfootballscout.co.uk - Link to Fantasy Football Scout's price change predictor.
- wrapped.tips/subscribe - Link to subscribe to a newsletter.
- linktr.ee/FPL_Harry - Link to FPL Harry's social media.
- rubrik.com - Mentioned as a platform for monitoring AI agents.
Podcasts & Audio
- FPL Harry - The podcast being transcribed.
- Sports Social Podcast Network - The network the podcast is part of.
Other Resources
- FPL (Fantasy Premier League) - The primary subject of the podcast.
- AFCON - Mentioned in relation to player transfers.
- YouTube Wrapped - Mentioned in relation to viewer statistics.
- AI Agents - Discussed in relation to Rubrik Agent Cloud.