Fantasy Premier League Chip and Transfer Strategy for Game Week 16 - Episode Hero Image

Fantasy Premier League Chip and Transfer Strategy for Game Week 16

FPL Harry · · Listen to Original Episode →
Original Title:

TL;DR

  • Playing the bench boost chip with flagged players is advisable if the remaining bench players are projected to score a minimum of 10 points, as future opportunities to use the chip may be limited by unforeseen issues.
  • Manchester United players like Bruno Fernandes may be available for Game Week 16 despite Africa Cup of Nations duty due to the Monday fixture, but uncertainty necessitates considering transfers to safer options before the deadline.
  • Utilizing five free transfers to fix a team for the current or upcoming game weeks is recommended over hoarding them, though aiming to maintain three free transfers by Game Week 19 allows for future strategic flexibility.
  • Tracking players with four yellow cards is crucial, as they risk suspension for the next match, potentially impacting team selection and transfer decisions for critical fixtures.
  • The optimal timing for playing chips like the Free Hit, Triple Captain, and Bench Boost depends on individual team structure and upcoming fixture advantages, with Game Week 18 often presenting strong opportunities for Bench Boost.
  • When considering defensive transfers, prioritizing players with favorable long-term fixtures over immediate one-week solutions, such as O'Riley, Guehi, or Keane over Andersen, can yield better overall team value.
  • For captaincy, Bukayo Saka is a strong contender against Wolves due to Arsenal's favorable fixture and Saka's rest, but Erling Haaland remains a high-probability option against Crystal Palace despite potential fatigue.

Deep Dive

The core of Fantasy Premier League (FPL) strategy for Game Week 16 revolves around managing flagged and injured players, optimizing the use of remaining chips, and making informed captaincy and transfer decisions amid player availability uncertainties. Second-order implications arise from how these immediate tactical choices impact long-term team value, chip efficiency, and overall rank progression, particularly as the season progresses toward the latter half.

Player availability is a critical factor, with potential absences due to injury or international duty creating immediate transfer dilemmas and influencing chip strategies. For instance, the uncertainty surrounding Manchester United's African Cup of Nations (AFCON) contingent, specifically Bruno Fernandes, necessitates a risk assessment: either retain the player hoping for availability or transfer him out to a guaranteed starter like Phil Foden, thereby potentially losing value if the player features. This decision-making process highlights a trade-off between short-term certainty and potential long-term gains or losses in team value. Similarly, the status of players like Timber and Declan Rice, who are flagged or ill, directly impacts decisions about playing chips like the Bench Boost. If a flagged player does not feature, the effectiveness of the Bench Boost is diminished, forcing a calculation of whether the remaining bench players can still contribute significantly. This suggests that chip deployment should be less about maximizing immediate points and more about ensuring the core team and bench are robust, with contingency plans for unexpected absences.

The management of free transfers and chips is another key area with cascading effects. The advice to aim for three free transfers by Game Week 19 implies a strategic approach to transfers, encouraging rolling transfers when immediate team upgrades are not essential. This not only preserves flexibility but also allows for capitalizing on future fixture swings or unforeseen opportunities. The timing of chip usage, such as the Free Hit, Triple Captain, and Bench Boost, is presented with a structured timeline, suggesting that their optimal deployment is tied to specific game weeks (e.g., Free Hit in GW16, Triple Captain in GW17, Bench Boost in GW18) based on fixture strength and player availability. Deviating from this suggested timeline without strong justification can lead to suboptimal returns, as it might mean using a chip when fewer advantageous fixtures are present or when key players are unavailable. Furthermore, the presence of players on four yellow cards, like Dominic Solanke, introduces a tension between their current form and the risk of suspension. Transferring such a player in might yield immediate points but could lead to them missing a subsequent, potentially more favorable, fixture, thus negating the transfer's long-term benefit.

Ultimately, the strategic deployment of resources--free transfers, chips, and player acquisitions--is paramount. The analysis suggests that a proactive, rather than reactive, approach to player availability and fixture planning is crucial. Decisions made in Game Week 16, such as transferring out players with uncertain availability or saving transfers, have direct implications for team structure and potential future point-scoring opportunities in subsequent weeks, influencing overall league standing.

Action Items

  • Audit player suspension risk: Track 5-10 key players with 4 yellow cards for potential future suspensions.
  • Create runbook template: Define 5 required sections (setup, common failures, rollback, monitoring) to prevent knowledge silos.
  • Measure transfer strategy impact: For 3-5 recent transfers, calculate points gained versus potential points lost from missed price rises.
  • Analyze chip usage plan: For remaining chips (Free Hit, Triple Captain, Bench Boost, Wildcard), map optimal usage across game weeks 16-19.

Related Episodes

Key Quotes

"The answer remains the same if you take the player out who is flagged in your team let's say they don't feature do you think the other three players remaining on your bench boost will score you 10 points at a minimum if they will with just a few weeks left to use the chip then yes i would play it regardless and just hope that flagged player plays."

FPL Harry explains that if a flagged player does not play, the manager should assess if the remaining three bench players can score at least 10 points. If they can, Harry advises playing the bench boost chip, accepting the risk that the flagged player might not feature.

"The africa cup of nations players they are all expected to play in game week 16 and leave after before game week 17 there are a few exceptions like there are some rumors that dan goratara given that his national team's first fixture is not until right at the end of the first round of games might be granted to play in game week 17 for brentford but we don't have confirmation on that yet."

FPL Harry notes that most players participating in the Africa Cup of Nations are expected to play in Game Week 16 and depart before Game Week 17. He highlights a potential exception for Dan Goratara, whose national team's first fixture is late in the round, suggesting he might be allowed to play for Brentford in Game Week 17, though this is unconfirmed.

"Everyone's got five free transfers and there's so many people asking what is the best strategy for them how many should we be using or how many should we be holding for later down the line if your team needs your transfers this week absolutely use them do not just save them because other people are saving them."

FPL Harry advises that if a manager's team requires transfers to improve for Game Week 16 and beyond, they should use them without hesitation, regardless of what other managers are doing. He emphasizes that the priority should be fixing one's own team rather than simply saving transfers for the sake of it.

"I personally like to filter it to players with minimum 5 ownership and sort by number of yellow cards so daniel munoz he's injured now so it's not that relevant but was on four yellows grant iyakhi if you've got him four yellows it feels like him against newcastle definitely a potential yellow card for him there dominic solanke on four yellows and actually dominic solanke if you're looking for the city goalkeeper is one away from a bad elsewhere."

FPL Harry describes his method for tracking players close to suspension by filtering for those with at least 5% ownership and sorting by yellow cards. He points out Daniel Munoz (though injured), Grant Iyakhi, and Dominic Solanke as players on four yellow cards, indicating a risk of suspension.

"The only arsenal defender that i think you can reliably buy unless we get something on timber is hincape ben white is a fine short term punt but you might have an issue with it further down the line lewis hall is only fine for one week virgil van dijk next over christmas they've got brighton at home spurs away wolves at home leeds at home and he will play every single minute he has goal threat a little bit of clean sheet understand that you don't people don't love them liverpool are not playing well but he should be considered now that timber's an issue manzo's injured he should be back on radar a bit."

FPL Harry suggests that Gabriel Heinze is a reliable Arsenal defender to buy, provided Jurrien Timber is not a viable option, while Ben White is a good short-term choice. He also recommends Virgil van Dijk as a strong consideration due to his guaranteed minutes and potential for goals and clean sheets, especially with other defensive options facing issues.

Resources

External Resources

Books

  • "Fantasy Premier League Strategy" by FPL Harry - Mentioned as a resource for planning teams and understanding FPL strategies.

Videos & Documentaries

  • Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour - Mentioned as an exclusive six-episode docu-series available on Disney Plus.
  • Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour - The Final Show - Mentioned as a streaming event featuring "The Tortured Poets Department" on Disney Plus.

Research & Studies

  • Rob T FPL data - Mentioned as the basis for benching rankings and clean sheet odds.

Tools & Software

  • Plan FPL - Mentioned as a tool for planning teams over multiple game weeks.
  • FPL Rotation Planner - Mentioned as a tool used in videos for team planning.
  • Fantasy Football Scout - Mentioned as a resource for planning teams with a discount code available.
  • Fantasy Football Scout Price Change Predictor - Mentioned as a free tool.
  • FPL Focus website - Mentioned as a resource for tracking player suspensions.

Articles & Papers

  • "Fantasy Premier League Tips 2025/26" (FPL Harry) - Mentioned as the title of the podcast episode providing FPL GW16 guidance.

People

  • Taylor Swift - Featured in exclusive docu-series and streaming event.
  • Harry Daniels - Contact for partnership and sponsorship inquiries.
  • FPL Harry - Host of the podcast and creator of FPL content.

Organizations & Institutions

  • Liberty Mutual - Mentioned for car insurance customization and savings.
  • Meyer - Mentioned for holiday season savings on hams, potatoes, and pie crusts.
  • Disney Plus - Platform for Taylor Swift docu-series and streaming event.
  • Manchester United - Club whose players' availability for a match is uncertain due to Africa Cup of Nations.
  • Brentford - Club whose player might be granted an extension before international duty.
  • Bournemouth - Club playing against Manchester United.
  • Arsenal - Club whose players' availability and team status are discussed.
  • Crystal Palace - Club playing against Manchester City.
  • Liverpool - Club whose players' availability and team status are discussed.
  • Everton - Club playing against Liverpool.
  • Burnley - Club playing against Bournemouth.
  • West Ham - Club playing against Manchester City.
  • Wolves - Club playing against Leeds and Liverpool.
  • Spurs - Club playing against Brighton.
  • Fulham - Club playing against Manchester City.
  • Brighton - Club playing against Spurs.
  • Nottingham Forest - Club whose players' availability is discussed.
  • Leeds - Club playing against Wolves and Nottingham Forest.
  • Chelsea - Club whose players' availability and team status are discussed.

Websites & Online Resources

  • fantasy.premierleague.com - URL for the official Fantasy Premier League website.
  • fplchallenge.premierleague.com - URL for the Fantasy Challenge League.
  • bit.ly/FFSHarry - Link to sign up for Fantasy Football Scout.
  • planfpl.com - Website for planning FPL teams.
  • fplrotationplanner.com - Website for FPL rotation planning.
  • fantasyfootballscout.co.uk - Website for the Price Change Predictor.
  • wrapped.tips/subscribe - Link to subscribe to a weekly email newsletter.
  • linktr.ee/FPL_Harry - Link to all of FPL Harry's social media.
  • podcastchoices.com/adchoices - Website for ad choices.

Podcasts & Audio

  • FPL Harry - Podcast featuring FPL tips and guides.
  • Sports Social Podcast Network - Network to which the podcast belongs.

Other Resources

  • Africa Cup of Nations - International football tournament impacting player availability.
  • Bench Boost - An FPL chip that can be played.
  • Wild Card - An FPL chip that can be played.
  • Free Hit - An FPL chip that can be played.
  • Triple Captain - An FPL chip that can be played.
  • Yellow Cards - A disciplinary measure in football that can lead to suspensions.
  • Captaincy Poll - A metric used to determine the most favored captain choice.
  • Team Value - A concept in FPL related to the total value of players in a team.
  • Zero Sugar Energy Drink - Category of drinks mentioned with specific flavors.

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