Identifying Value in NFL Anytime Touchdown Scorer Bets - Episode Hero Image

Identifying Value in NFL Anytime Touchdown Scorer Bets

The Action Network Sports Betting Podcast · · Listen to Original Episode →
Original Title:

TL;DR

  • Betting on Saquon Barkley at -120 against the Commanders presents value, as he is projected closer to -135, indicating a positive trend in his touchdown opportunities and a favorable matchup.
  • Dontavius Wicks is a strong consideration for the Packers against the Bears due to numerous injuries on both teams, particularly if Christian Watson is limited, and Wicks' historical success against man coverage.
  • Tony Pollard's increased usage and recent touchdown success against the Chiefs suggest he is a prime candidate to score, especially with the Chiefs' defensive injuries and potential for a higher-scoring game.
  • Mike Evans is the top touchdown bet of the week against the Panthers, given his strong history against them and the Panthers' defensive struggles against elite wide receivers.
  • K.J. Osborn's route participation and six end zone targets lead the Patriots, making him a valuable underdog play against the Ravens, especially if the Patriots are forced to pass aggressively.
  • Mark Andrews is a good value bet at +155 against the Patriots, as his touchdown rate remains high and the Ravens may need to maintain offensive pressure in a potentially higher-scoring game.
  • Jauan Jennings has emerged as Brock Purdy's primary target, increasing his touchdown upside against a Colts defense that struggles against wide receivers, making him a strong play.

Deep Dive

This episode of The Action Network Sports Betting Podcast focuses on identifying value in anytime touchdown scorer bets for NFL Week 16, emphasizing player-specific matchups, injury impacts, and potential game scripts to uncover favorable odds. The core implication is that by scrutinizing these factors, bettors can identify "edge cases" where the market may undervalue a player's scoring potential, leading to profitable opportunities.

The analysis delves into specific games, highlighting how injuries to key players can elevate the roles of their backups, thereby increasing their touchdown potential. For instance, the absence of Zach Ertz opens the door for Ben Sinnott, and the potential for limited workloads for lead backs like Bijan Robinson could funnel more goal-line opportunities to Tyler Allgeier. Furthermore, the podcast stresses the importance of considering defensive vulnerabilities; teams that struggle against specific positions or play a high rate of man coverage present opportunities for targeted bets. The "and then what?" extends to how teams manage their rosters down the stretch, with considerations for veteran players needing to hit contract incentives or younger players looking to make a final impression before the season concludes. The segment on the Colts' quarterback situation illustrates the cascading effect of injuries, creating uncertainty that can lead to inflated odds for players like Michael Pittman Jr. and Tyler Warren, whose scoring potential is tied to a simplified passing attack. The implication here is that such chaotic situations, while risky, can also present significant opportunities for those who can identify the most likely beneficiaries.

Ultimately, the episode underscores that successful touchdown betting requires a granular approach, moving beyond simple name recognition to analyze situational football. The takeaway is that by meticulously examining player roles, defensive weaknesses, and the specific dynamics of each game, bettors can find undervalued players poised to score, offering a strategic advantage in the volatile landscape of NFL prop betting.

Action Items

  • Analyze 5-10 recent player performance trends to identify potential undervalued or overvalued anytime touchdown scorers for future betting.
  • Track player usage rates (targets, carries, routes run) for 3-5 key players per game to predict future touchdown opportunities.
  • Measure the correlation between player performance metrics (e.g., target share, red zone carries) and actual touchdown outcomes for 5-10 players.
  • Evaluate the impact of quarterback changes on receiver and tight end touchdown potential across 2-3 teams with recent QB shifts.

Related Episodes

Key Quotes

"So I'm gonna do something crazy here not only am I not taking somebody that's like 10 to one or higher um I'm actually taking somebody that's minus odds with Saquon Barkley at minus 120 um obviously you know he's having a down year but as I wrote up in my tiers piece you know a couple weeks ago he has a really good schedule here to close out the season um and now he has you know a touchdown in back to back games one was on a push push play where they kind of ran a trick play where they pitch it to him and he ran for you know a 52 yard touchdown and then last week they they gave him a rush attempt on the two yard line"

Sean Koerner explains his rationale for betting on Saquon Barkley to score a touchdown, even at minus odds. Koerner highlights Barkley's recent touchdown production and increased usage in goal-line situations, suggesting he is trending upwards. He also notes that his projection for Barkley's odds is more favorable than the current market offering.

"On the other side I am going to take an eight to one play here more of a long shot I'm gonna go with my guy Ben Sinit here this this is just a brutal matchup for the commanders I mean it's gonna be hard pressed for them to put up many points here but that's that's already being factored in in this market so this is just a bet on talent on my end because he was a you know second round pick last year he's been stuck behind Zach Ertz but with Ertz out you know this is time for him to step up potentially similar to what we saw with you know Dallas Goedert and Trey McBride in the past"

Sean Koerner discusses his long-shot bet on tight end Ben Sinit. Koerner emphasizes that this is a bet on Sinit's talent, given his draft status and the opportunity that arises with Zach Ertz sidelined. He draws a parallel to other tight ends who have succeeded when given a larger role.

"For the Bears I'm gonna go with Caleb Williams he's around plus 425 he's got three rushing touchdowns this year and he loves to make things happen on the run when you watch him like it's like he's allergic to throwing from the pocket like he just shows a lot of scrambling ability 19 red zone carries that's third for all NFL quarterbacks so I think the Bears are still gonna lean on the run heavy in this matchup I think this sets up perfectly for Caleb to get out of the pocket and run one in if De'Andre Swift and Khalil Herbert are having just such an effective game"

J Gilles Gallant identifies Caleb Williams as a potential anytime touchdown scorer. Gallant points to Williams' significant rushing ability, particularly his red zone carries, and suggests that the Bears' offensive strategy will likely involve him running the ball. He believes the matchup is favorable for Williams to score via a scramble.

"For the Titans Tony Pollard at plus 140 he's starting to come on down the stretch as the Titans are starting to play with more neutral game scripts so started to see it a couple weeks ago against the Browns and then you know even last week didn't didn't have as much neutral game script but he's had enough to get in the end zone 14 carries 104 yards and a touch the week before he had two on 25 carries and those are his two most high volume games since early in the year since since October"

Sean Koerner highlights Tony Pollard as a strong candidate for an anytime touchdown. Koerner notes Pollard's recent increase in usage and effectiveness, particularly in games with more neutral game scripts. He points to his high-volume carries and touchdown production in recent weeks as evidence of his current form.

"So for the Chargers I'm gonna have to go with Justin Herbert here at six to one and you know it was crazy how just days after having surgery on his broken left hand Herbert rushed 10 times for 66 yards and he kept like landing on it it was like I thought he'd re injure it but I wasn't shocked last week he he dialed back a ton only rushed twice for zero yards which I expected him to really dial back but I would assume you know he really hasn't had any setbacks so far so his hands probably starting to feel a lot better might be trending closer to 100 maybe not all the way there this week but I I think we'll probably start to see him trend back to his typical scramble rate here especially in you know high leverage goal to go type situations"

Chris Raybon discusses Justin Herbert as a potential anytime touchdown scorer. Raybon acknowledges Herbert's recent injury but points to his willingness to run despite it, suggesting his hand is improving. He anticipates Herbert will return to his usual scrambling tendencies in crucial situations, making him a valuable bet at his current odds.

"For the Cowboys side I'm going to go with CeeDee Lamb at plus 180 like you said they're eliminated they have nothing to play for but Lamb has millions of dollars to play for right now because you know he's cooled off the last couple games he's had some really bad plays on film that I think have cost him significantly on his upcoming you know massive contract that he's playing for so I think you know the last few weeks he's going to have to step up and I think he does here I'm actually I'm projecting him closer to plus 120 this is actually one of the top values in our prop tool right now and they're still you know they're slight favorites at home this could be a shootout so I think we're getting pretty good value here on Lamb at plus 180"

Chris Raybon identifies CeeDee Lamb as a strong anytime touchdown bet. Raybon argues that despite the Cowboys being eliminated, Lamb has significant financial motivation due to his upcoming contract. He believes Lamb will elevate his performance in the remaining games and sees value in his current odds, projecting him to be a top performer.

Resources

External Resources

Articles & Papers

  • "Action Network Discord" - Mentioned as a place to chat with experts and fellow gamblers.
  • "Action Network App" - Mentioned for signing up for Action Pro for instant notifications.
  • "Action Pro" - Mentioned for instant notifications from top experts.
  • "Action Network.com/pricing" - Mentioned for signing up for Action Pro.
  • "Action Network.com/general/betnow" - Mentioned for instantly tailing bets from the episode with quick slips.
  • "acast.com/privacy" - Mentioned for more information.
  • "podcastpulse2025.com" - Mentioned for insights from the Acast Podcast Pulse 2025 report.
  • "shopify.com/retail" - Mentioned for upgrading businesses and getting the same checkout as Alo Yoga.
  • "zero.com" - Mentioned for accounting software to supercharge small businesses.

People

  • Chris Raybon - Host of The Action Network Sports Betting Podcast.
  • Sean Koerner - Guest on The Action Network Sports Betting Podcast.
  • Gilles Gallant - Guest on The Action Network Sports Betting Podcast.
  • Jameson Williams - Mentioned as a player for whom a pick hit last week.
  • Dallas Goedert - Mentioned as a player for whom a pick hit last week.
  • Drake Maye - Mentioned as a player for whom a pick hit last week.
  • Adonai Mitchell - Mentioned as a player for whom a pick hit last week.
  • Jauan Jennings - Mentioned as a player for whom a pick hit last week.
  • Gunnar Helm - Mentioned as a player for whom a pick hit last week.
  • Saquon Barkley - Mentioned as a player to take at minus odds.
  • Zach Ertz - Mentioned as a player who was out, creating opportunity for others.
  • Dontavius Wicks - Mentioned as a packer to look for.
  • Christian Watson - Mentioned as a player who might still be hurt.
  • Jayden Reed - Mentioned as a player who only practiced once.
  • Josh Jacobs - Mentioned as a player who did not practice.
  • Matthew Golden - Mentioned as a player who has not really picked up his role.
  • Caleb Williams - Mentioned as a player for the Bears.
  • DeAndre Swift - Mentioned as a player whose effective game could set up Caleb Williams.
  • Khalil Herbert - Mentioned as a player whose effective game could set up Caleb Williams.
  • Kareem Hunt - Mentioned as a bet on the Chiefs to score.
  • Pacheco - Mentioned as a player who saw an uptick in usage last week.
  • Tony Pollard - Mentioned as a bet for the Titans.
  • Jordan Mason - Mentioned as a bet for the Vikings.
  • C.J. Ham - Mentioned as a player who scored a touchdown for the Vikings.
  • Isaiah Hogens - Mentioned as a sneaky bet for the Giants.
  • Mike Evans - Mentioned as a favorite touchdown bet of the week.
  • Baker Mayfield - Mentioned as a quarterback who favors Mike Evans.
  • Bryce Young - Mentioned as a bet for the Panthers.
  • Tyler Shuck - Mentioned as a quarterback who scored twice.
  • Josh Allen - Mentioned as a quarterback who ran for three touchdowns.
  • Jeremy Rucker - Mentioned as a backup tight end for the Jets who will get the start.
  • Bason Taylor - Mentioned as an injured player for the Jets.
  • Kevin Austin Jr. - Mentioned as a player for the Saints.
  • Devon Vea - Mentioned as an injured player for the Saints.
  • Pettis - Mentioned as a direct backup to Chris Olave.
  • Chris Olave - Mentioned as a player for the Saints.
  • Justin Herbert - Mentioned as a bet for the Chargers.
  • George Pickens - Mentioned as a bet for the Cowboys.
  • Cortland Sutton - Mentioned as a player with deep targets.
  • Gabe Davis - Mentioned as a player who was scratched last week.
  • Josh Palmer - Mentioned as a player to go back to for the Bills.
  • Brandon Cooks - Mentioned as a player expected back for the Bills.
  • Denzel Ward - Mentioned as a player not practicing.
  • Harold Fanin - Mentioned as a top target on the Browns.
  • Jerry Jeudy - Mentioned as a player who has run the same amount of routes as Fanin.
  • Greg Dulcich - Mentioned as a bet for Miami.
  • Tua - Mentioned as a backup quarterback for Miami.
  • Waller - Mentioned as a player on the injury report for Miami.
  • Tanner Hudson - Mentioned as a bet for Cincinnati.
  • Noah Fant - Mentioned as an injured player for Cincinnati.
  • Drew Sample - Mentioned as an injured player for Cincinnati.
  • Tyler Allgeier - Mentioned as a bet for the Falcons.
  • Bijan Robinson - Mentioned as a player whose workload might be limited.
  • Corey Kiner - Mentioned as a bet for the Cardinals.
  • Bam Knight - Mentioned as a player on IR for the Cardinals.
  • Michael Carter - Mentioned as a workhorse back for the Cardinals.
  • DeMercado - Mentioned as a player who could get extra work for the Cardinals.
  • Nate Atkins - Mentioned as a player taken last week.
  • Michael Bandy - Mentioned as a player who scored last week.
  • Lil Jordan Humphrey - Mentioned as a player who scored last week.
  • Marvin Mims - Mentioned as a player for the Broncos.
  • Bo Nix - Mentioned as a quarterback playing lights out.
  • Adam Trautman - Mentioned as a player for the Broncos.
  • Mercedes Lewis - Mentioned as a player who could end up with a target.
  • Keshawn Boutte - Mentioned as a bet for the Patriots.
  • Diggs - Mentioned as a player managing an injury.
  • Lamar Jackson - Mentioned as a bet for Baltimore.
  • Mark Andrews - Mentioned as a bet for Baltimore.
  • Isaiah Likely - Mentioned as a player on the Ravens.
  • Michael Pittman Jr. - Mentioned as a bet for the Colts.
  • J.T. - Mentioned as a player the Colts will lean on.
  • Tyler Warren - Mentioned as a bet for the Colts.
  • Riley Leonard - Mentioned as a player who could come in for the Colts.
  • Alec Pierce - Mentioned as a player who is cooked for the Colts.
  • Brock Purdy - Mentioned as a quarterback returning to the lineup.
  • George Kittle - Mentioned as a player targeted by Purdy.
  • Christian McCaffrey - Mentioned as a player targeted by Purdy.
  • Kendrick Bourne - Mentioned as a player not getting many targets.

Organizations

  • The Action Network Sports Betting Podcast - The podcast being discussed.
  • DraftKings - Sponsor of The Action Network Sports Betting Podcast.
  • NFL (National Football League) - The league for which touchdown bets are being discussed.
  • Eagles - Mentioned in relation to a game against the Commanders.
  • Commanders - Mentioned in relation to a game against the Eagles.
  • Packers - Mentioned in relation to a game against the Bears.
  • Bears - Mentioned in relation to a game against the Packers.
  • Chiefs - Mentioned in relation to a game against the Titans.
  • Tennessee Titans - Mentioned in relation to a game against the Chiefs.
  • Minnesota Vikings - Mentioned in relation to a game against the Giants.
  • New York Giants - Mentioned in relation to a game against the Vikings.
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Mentioned in relation to a game against the Panthers.
  • Carolina Panthers - Mentioned in relation to a game against the Buccaneers.
  • Jets - Mentioned in relation to a game against the Saints.
  • Saints - Mentioned in relation to a game against the Jets.
  • Chargers - Mentioned in relation to a game against the Cowboys.
  • Dallas Cowboys - Mentioned in relation to a game against the Chargers.
  • Bills - Mentioned in relation to a game against the Browns.
  • Browns - Mentioned in relation to a game against the Bills.
  • Bengals - Mentioned in relation to a game against the Dolphins.
  • Miami Dolphins - Mentioned in relation to a game against the Bengals.
  • Cardinals - Mentioned in relation to a game against the Falcons.
  • Atlanta Falcons - Mentioned in relation to a game against the Cardinals.
  • Jaguars - Mentioned in relation to a game against the Broncos.
  • Denver Broncos - Mentioned in relation to a game against the Jaguars.
  • New England Patriots - Mentioned in relation to a game against the Ravens.
  • Baltimore Ravens - Mentioned in relation to a game against the Patriots.
  • Indianapolis Colts - Mentioned in relation to a game against the 49ers.
  • San Francisco 49ers - Mentioned in relation to a game against the Colts.
  • Nitza - Mentioned as the payer for a public service announcement.
  • Valvoline Instant Oil Change - Mentioned as a place that performs an 18-point maintenance check.
  • Xero - Mentioned as accounting software for small businesses.

Other Resources

  • Anytime Touchdowns - The primary focus of the podcast episode.
  • Luck Rankings - Mentioned in relation to a game between the Eagles and Commanders.
  • Tiers Piece - Mentioned in relation to Saquon Barkley's schedule.
  • Quick Slip - Mentioned as a way to tail bets.
  • Same Game Parlays - Mentioned as a way to use bonus bets on DraftKings.
  • Promo Code Action Network - Mentioned for signing up with DraftKings.
  • Prop Tool - Mentioned as a tool that shows value on George Pickens.
  • Parlay Express - Mentioned as an account to add anytime touchdown parlays to.
  • DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average) - Mentioned in relation to the Panthers' defense.
  • Target Share - Mentioned in relation to various players.
  • Route Run Rate - Mentioned in relation to various players.
  • End Zone Targets - Mentioned in relation to various players.
  • Deep Targets -

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