Week 18 NFL Betting: Exploiting Motivation and Inefficiencies

Key Quotes

"NFL Week 18 is here and Action Network NFL betting experts Brandon Anderson and Evan Abrams are back with some of their favorite plays. From best bets in the games that matter, to a lightning round of props and more from some games that don't, the guys discuss where they're seeing value for this weekend's NFL slate and how they're looking to cash on the last regular season week of NFL football."

Brandon Anderson and Evan Abrams, experts from The Action Network, are discussing their top betting picks for NFL Week 18. They plan to cover significant games, prop bets, and identify value opportunities for the final week of the regular season.

"For me personally, I'm looking more long shots underdogs in week 18. There're going to be more teams at long odds that might just accidentally try or maybe the favorite ends up resting or pulling guys halfway through the game so I'm looking at that I'm looking at motivation I'm looking a lot at correlation if x team loses what does that mean for y's team's playoff chances so we got a couple correlated angles and I think too for me of course I'm the futures guy this is a great chance to to take a future swing before the game this is to say okay if I like this team what does that mean for them to win the game how does that help their path and then is the path better so I can skip the money line now invest straight into the super bowl odds or something like that."

Brandon Anderson explains his strategy for betting on NFL Week 18, focusing on long-shot underdogs and teams with strong motivation. He also highlights the value of considering correlated bets and leveraging futures markets, such as Super Bowl odds, to capitalize on potential team trajectories.

"The data does say that the big underdog the random big underdog does come through every once in a while here and I put this in my article but week 17 and 18 dogs of over a full touchdown so seven and a half or more are 16 and 53 on the money line over the last decade you see oh that sounds like crap well I mean it is almost a 10 return on investment they've been profitable in three straight seasons and seven of the last 10."

Evan Abrams points to a statistical trend supporting underdogs in Weeks 17 and 18. He notes that underdogs with a spread of seven and a half points or more have a profitable moneyline record over the last decade, indicating a consistent return on investment for bettors who target these situations.

"My first thought was Seattle minus one and a half on the road woo boy that feels a bit surprising it's hot it's San Fran's offense has been but for Seattle they'll be a road favorite but that's pretty much my number I have it Seattle minus 1.8 so I don't really see a big edge there looking at offense defense Seattle defense San Fran offense man you can't get a better matchup than that we got Seattle defense Rams offense a couple times already and we enjoyed that matchup all the way I think this one is just as good maybe better Seattle's defense has on the road this year and this is why they went out and got Mike McDonald specifically for Shanahan and McVay offenses."

Evan Abrams analyzes the matchup between the Seattle Seahawks and the San Francisco 49ers. He expresses surprise at the initial line but believes Seattle's defense, particularly under coordinator Mike McDonald, is well-suited to counter Kyle Shanahan's offensive schemes.

"My numbers say that's close to a coin flip game that Pittsburgh would be more of an underdog I like Baltimore slightly better but we're going to have a lot of trends that say you bet the home underdogs in the wild card round especially Baltimore they would be 15 or less worse on the win rate than Houston 75 ats in that spot so here's where I'm at I don't think this is what happens but I like the line whoever wins Baltimore Pittsburgh has a real chance to upset Houston presumably in the next round it's probably like a total of 37 low scoring ugly close you get the lucky kick late and get over the line give me Baltimore and Pittsburgh I'll play both of them to lose not in the wild card round in the divisional round Baltimore plus 460 Pittsburgh plus 750 we're getting both those teams together it's about 30 combined odds."

Brandon Anderson discusses the Ravens vs. Steelers game and a futures bet. He suggests that regardless of who wins, both teams have a favorable path to upset Houston in the divisional round, offering attractive odds for Baltimore and Pittsburgh to lose in that specific round.

"I just really like the Lions here I'll take the plus three I'll take the money line plus 140 to me it's not really number this is about matchup and motivation Detroit hung 52 on this defense all the way back in week two Chicago's defense was a lot more banged up then but still pretty gettable as we've seen multiple times lately and I know the whole fourth place schedule thing this is Dan Campbell if anything I think Dan Campbell would have wanted harder like he'd prefer the harder schedule to go earn it the hard way next year he's going to want this game like against Ben Johnson the guy that left them for the divisional job he's going to want the team to get above 500 he does not want to end the season on a four game losing streak I guarantee you the Lions actually care about this game want to come out and play and the Bears might not really need to."

Brandon Anderson expresses a strong preference for the Detroit Lions in their matchup against the Chicago Bears. He emphasizes motivation and matchup advantages, noting Detroit's previous offensive success against Chicago and Dan Campbell's likely desire to finish the season strong, especially against a former assistant.