NFL Playoff Contenders Evaluated by Offensive Line and Defense

Pushing the Pile: A CBS Sports NFL Podcast · December 30, 2025 · Listen to Original Episode →

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TL;DR

The Rams' offensive line, particularly the absence of Kevin Dotson, physically overwhelmed them against the Falcons, impacting their run game and ability to protect Matthew Stafford, raising concerns about their playoff sustainability.
Drake Maye's ability as a scrambler and his impact on the Patriots' offense, despite lacking elite talent, positions him as a strong MVP candidate over Matthew Stafford's experience.
The Texans' defense, characterized by its consistent Cover 3 and Cover 4 schemes and impact players at every level, makes them a dangerous playoff team capable of winning low-scoring games.
The Broncos' offense, reliant on Bo Nix's legs and a struggling run game without J.K. Dobbins and Luke Wattenberg, faces sustainability issues and potential playoff vulnerabilities against strong pass rushes.
The Eagles' offensive line struggles are a primary reason for their offensive decline, hindering their ability to physically overwhelm opponents and potentially limiting their playoff success despite a strong defense.
The Bills' offense appears constrained, leaning heavily on the run game and Josh Allen's improvisational plays, raising questions about its sustainability against elite playoff offenses without consistent explosive plays.
The 49ers' resilience in holding together their team despite significant injuries, particularly to their offensive line and defensive stars, highlights their coaching staff's effectiveness but raises concerns about their ability to maintain momentum.

Deep Dive

The NFL playoff picture is highly fluid after Week 17, with several teams solidifying their positions while others face critical Week 18 matchups to determine their postseason fate. This dynamic situation highlights the importance of momentum and situational performance, as teams like the Texans and Jaguars are emerging as dangerous contenders due to strong defense and offensive efficiency, respectively, while established teams like the Eagles and Bills grapple with offensive inconsistencies that could derail their Super Bowl aspirations.

The Rams' unexpected loss to the Falcons exposes vulnerabilities in their offensive line, particularly without Kevin Dotson, which directly impacts Matthew Stafford's ability to operate from a clean pocket and raises concerns about their playoff contention against elite pass rushes. This loss also significantly shifted MVP odds, with Drake Maye's strong play for the Patriots positioning him as a leading candidate, showcasing how individual performance can dramatically alter narratives and perceptions. The AFC playoff race, in particular, remains wide open, with the Broncos, Patriots, Texans, and Bills all vying for top seeds and favorable matchups, underscoring the unpredictable nature of the league where a single upset can reshape the entire landscape.

The most dangerous teams heading into the playoffs appear to be those with dominant defenses, such as the Texans, or those with efficient offenses capable of grinding out wins, like the Jaguars. Conversely, teams like the Eagles, despite a strong defense, face questions about their offensive sustainability, particularly their offensive line's struggles, which could prove to be their undoing in high-stakes playoff games. The analysis of draft-eligible quarterbacks also reveals a class with significant question marks, suggesting that teams desperate for a franchise signal-caller may need to trade aggressively or settle for bridge quarterbacks, a situation exemplified by teams like the Raiders and Steelers who find themselves in a perennial state of mediocrity without a clear long-term solution. The overarching theme is that while offensive firepower is crucial, a robust pass rush and consistent offensive line play are the ultimate arbiters of playoff success, as highlighted in the "Trench Take" segment, emphasizing that defense and line play will likely decide the Lombardi Trophy.

Action Items

Audit offensive line health: Identify 3-5 key players whose injuries significantly impacted run game success (e.g., Dotson, Wattenberg for Broncos).
Analyze quarterback decision-making under pressure: For 3-5 games, review instances where QBs scrambled unnecessarily, leading to negative outcomes (e.g., Nix, Mayfield).
Track defensive pass rush impact: For 3-5 playoff-contending teams, measure how often their pass rush forces negative plays or turnovers on third down.
Evaluate team draft strategy: For teams picking in the top 10, assess if their current roster needs justify trading for a veteran QB versus drafting a rookie.
Measure defensive coverage vulnerability: For 3-5 teams, identify specific coverage schemes (e.g., Cover 6, Cover 2) that were exploited by opposing offenses.

Key Quotes

"I think I'm a little more concerned about the health of the offense and sustainability of the offense rather than the defense. I do think that they have a formula for winning Super Bowl like games and winning in the playoffs, which is they have a pass rush that can still get home and they still have a great defensive coordinator in Chris Shula."

Ryan Wilson expresses concern for the Rams' offensive health and sustainability, contrasting it with the defense's potential to win playoff games due to their pass rush and defensive coordinator. He believes the defense has a viable formula for success in the postseason.

"I think in my head in a perfect world they just give they they just tie the MVP. Like this is the year where you can give the MVP to both of them. It'd be very similar to Steve McNair and Peyton Manning. I think that Drake Maye adds so much to the Patriots and they're sort of in this space and in this one-one seed race in the AFC because of Drake May."

The speaker suggests a tie for the MVP award, comparing it to a past instance with Steve McNair and Peyton Manning. They argue that Drake Maye's significant contributions have propelled the Patriots into a strong playoff position in the AFC.

"The antidote is pass rush. Okay? And it's funny, it's a full circle moment, but we've been talking about offense on here for so long. Think back to the Super Bowl, think back to the Super Bowl during COVID when Patrick Mahomes was chased out of the stadium in Tampa Bay or last year against the Philadelphia Eagles. It is going to come down to your ability to rush the passer or get him off the spot and put guys in a bind."

This quote emphasizes the critical importance of a strong pass rush as the solution to potent offenses and mobile quarterbacks. The speaker points to past Super Bowl performances where quarterback pressure was a deciding factor, asserting that the ability to disrupt the passer is key to winning.

"I am so angry that the NFL made this Steelers game 8:20. So I got to sit through all the other games and watch them lose to the Ravens. I was praying it would be the 4:30 Saturday game so I could get on with my weekend. So I got to sit through that. So you know, I watched the Packers give up against the Ravens the night before last Saturday and then the Steelers pretended they were the Packers against the Browns."

This speaker expresses frustration with the scheduling of a Steelers game, feeling it forces them to endure other potentially disappointing matchups before the game they are focused on. They draw a parallel between the Steelers' performance and that of the Packers against the Ravens, suggesting a similar lack of competitiveness.

"I think the most optimistic thing you could think for with Jackson Dart is building an offense similar to Philadelphia's that relies on the run game and sort of the the power forward playing quarterback style that Jackson Dart has and just let him throw deep balls all game. I still am very concerned about sort of his processing and his passing against zone coverage but he's done really well beating man coverage and beating man blitzes because he scrambles or he's going to throw the deep ball."

This analysis suggests that the most promising path for Jackson Dart involves building an offense around his running ability and deep-ball passing, similar to the Philadelphia Eagles' strategy. While acknowledging concerns about his processing against zone coverage, the speaker notes his success against man coverage due to his athleticism and deep throws.

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External Resources

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People

Kendrick Lamar - Mentioned as an example of an artist with early access to concert presales through Cash App.
Sabrina Carpenter - Mentioned as an example of an artist with early access to concert presales through Cash App.
Steve McNair - Mentioned as an example of a player who could have shared an MVP award.
Peyton Manning - Mentioned as an example of a player who could have shared an MVP award.
RG3 (Robert Griffin III) - Mentioned as an example of a player whose career trajectory was impacted by injuries and playing style.
Joe Milton - Mentioned as an example of a player whose performance in a specific game led to a trade.
Aaron Rodgers - Mentioned in relation to a preseason prediction about passing yards and his potential return to play.
Ben Roethlisberger - Mentioned as an example of a player the Steelers drafted luckily.
Kellen Winslow Jr. - Mentioned as a player drafted ahead of Ben Roethlisberger.
Will Howard - Mentioned as a potential quarterback option for the Steelers.
Dante More - Mentioned as a potential quarterback prospect in the draft.
Ty Simpson - Mentioned as a potential quarterback prospect in the draft.
Fernando Mendoza - Mentioned as a potential quarterback prospect for the Raiders.
Caleb Moore - Mentioned as the person who drafted Tyler Shuck.
Jackson Dart - Mentioned as a quarterback prospect for the Giants and in relation to his playing style.
Abdul Carter - Mentioned as a player the Giants drafted.
J.D. Sanders - Mentioned in relation to a preseason prediction about passing yards.
Quinn Ewers - Mentioned as a potential quarterback option for the Dolphins and in relation to his draft status.
Tua Tagovailoa - Mentioned as a potential quarterback option for the Steelers and in relation to his performance in cold weather.
Jamison Crowder - Mentioned as a potential quarterback option for the Steelers.
Joe Burrow - Mentioned in relation to his performance and the Bengals' offensive line.
Jamar Chase - Mentioned in relation to the Bengals' offense.
T. Higgins - Mentioned in relation to the Bengals' offense.
Zack Taylor - Mentioned as the coach of the Bengals.
Adam Thielen - Mentioned in relation to the Steelers' wide receiver corps.
MVS (Marquise Goodwin) - Mentioned in relation to the Steelers' wide receiver corps.
Derrick Henry - Mentioned in relation to the Ravens' run game and his effectiveness in cold weather.
Odafe Oweh - Mentioned in relation to the Ravens' pass rush.
Max Crosby - Mentioned as a player the Raiders might shut down before a game.
Robert Bowers - Mentioned as a player the Raiders might shut down before a game.
Tristan Wirfs - Mentioned in relation to the Buccaneers' offensive line.
Mike Evans - Mentioned as a trusted receiver for Baker Mayfield.
Landon Dickerson - Mentioned in relation to the Eagles' offensive line health.
Cam Jurgens - Mentioned in relation to the Eagles' offensive line health.
Tyler Steen - Mentioned in relation to the Eagles' offensive line.
Lane Johnson - Mentioned as an injured player on the Eagles' offensive line.
Bosa - Mentioned as an injured player on the 49ers' defense.
Michael Williams - Mentioned as an injured player on the 49ers' defense.
Fred Warner - Mentioned in relation to his injury and potential return to the 49ers.
Kyle Shanahan - Mentioned as the coach of the 49ers and in relation to his play-calling.
Robert Saleh - Mentioned as a coach who worked with Kyle Shanahan.
Mike McDonald - Mentioned as the defensive coordinator for the Seahawks.
Nico Collins - Mentioned in relation to the Texans' offense and a specific play design.
Xavier Hutchinson - Mentioned in relation to the Texans' offense and a specific play design.
Jalen Noel - Mentioned as a receiver for the Texans and in relation to a touchdown reception.
Elijah Molden - Mentioned in relation to the Chargers' defense and a specific play.
Jason Marshall - Mentioned in relation to a Baker Mayfield interception.
Jalen McMillan - Mentioned in relation to a Baker Mayfield interception.
Baker Mayfield - Mentioned in relation to the Buccaneers' offense and his performance.
Kyler Murray - Mentioned as a potential quarterback option for the Steelers and in relation to his fit in cold weather.
Will Anderson Jr. - Mentioned as a player the Texans traded up for and his impact.
C.J. Stroud - Mentioned in relation to his performance post-injury and the Texans' offense.
Jalen Pitre - Mentioned as an impact player on the Texans' defense.
Derek Stingley Jr. - Mentioned as an impact player on the Texans' defense.
Keanu Neal - Mentioned as an impact player on the Texans' defense.
Kamari Lassetter - Mentioned as a player on the Texans' defense and in relation to his scouting profile.
Brian Branch - Mentioned in relation to Kamari Lassetter.
Kyle Hamilton - Mentioned in relation to Kamari Lassetter.
Tommy Togiai - Mentioned as a player on the Texans' defensive tackle spot.
Mario Edwards Jr. - Mentioned as a player on the Texans' defensive tackle spot.
Darnell Washington - Mentioned in relation to the Steelers' tight end situation and blocking ability.
Johnnu Smith - Mentioned in relation to the Steelers' tight end situation.
Pat Freiermuth - Mentioned in relation to the Steelers' tight end situation.
Spencer Anderson - Mentioned in relation to the Steelers' offensive line.
Lamar Jackson - Mentioned in relation to the Ravens' offense and his impact.
Todd Monken - Mentioned as the offensive coordinator for the Ravens.
T.J. Watt - Mentioned in relation to the Steelers' defense.
Patrick Surtain - Mentioned in relation to the Broncos' defense.
Riley Moss - Mentioned in relation to the Broncos' defense.
Jaquan McMillian - Mentioned in relation to the Broncos' defense.
Tyle Noah Fanga - Mentioned in relation to the Broncos' defense.
Bo Nix - Mentioned in relation to the Broncos' offense and his performance.
J.K. Dobbins - Mentioned in relation to the Broncos' run game.
Luke Wattenberg - Mentioned in relation to the Broncos' run game.
Matthew Stafford - Mentioned in relation to the Rams' offense and MVP odds.
Cooper Kupp - Mentioned in relation to the Rams' offense.
Devante Adams - Mentioned in relation to Matthew Stafford's performance.
Sean McVay - Mentioned as the play-caller for the Rams.
Kevin Dotson - Mentioned in relation to the Rams' offensive line.
Derrick Hall - Mentioned in relation to Kevin Dotson's injury.
Emmanuel Forbes - Mentioned in relation to the Rams' secondary.
Cam Kinches - Mentioned in relation to the Rams' secondary.
Chris Shula - Mentioned as the defensive coordinator for the Rams.
DJ Humphries - Mentioned in relation to the Rams' offensive line.
Alaric Jackson - Mentioned as an injured player on the Rams' offensive line.
Drake Maye - Mentioned in relation to MVP odds and his performance.
Mac Jones - Mentioned in relation to his performance and Drake Maye.
Keshawn Boutte - Mentioned in relation to the Patriots' offense.
Will Campbell - Mentioned as an injured player for the Patriots.
Jared Wilson - Mentioned as an injured player for the Patriots.
Justin Fields - Mentioned in relation to his development as a quarterback.
Jalen Hurts - Mentioned in relation to the Eagles' offense and their performance.
Josh Allen - Mentioned in relation to the Bills' offense and his performance.
Brandon Cooks - Mentioned as a deep threat for the Bills.
Keon Coleman - Mentioned in relation to the Bills' wide receiver situation.
Brandon Bean - Mentioned in relation to the Bills' team management.
Travis Kelce - Mentioned in relation to a potential Chiefs game.
Patrick Mahomes - Mentioned in relation to the Chiefs' offense.
Brock Purdy - Mentioned in relation to the 49ers' offense and his starting status.
Kyle Usecheck - Mentioned in relation to a specific motion used by the 49ers.
Christian McCaffrey - Mentioned in relation to the 49ers' offense and a specific play.
T.J. Edwards - Mentioned in relation to the Bears' defense.
Tremaine Edmunds - Mentioned in relation to the Bears' defense.
Malik Willis - Mentioned as a potential quarterback option for the Jets, Raiders, and Browns, and in relation to his development.
Dillon Gabriel - Mentioned as a potential quarterback option for the Steelers.
Shador Sanders - Mentioned as a potential quarterback option for the Steelers and Browns.
A.J. Brown - Mentioned in relation to the Eagles' offense.
Jaylen Carter - Mentioned in relation to the Eagles' defense.
Jordan Mailata - Mentioned in relation to the Eagles' offensive line.
Kenny Pickett - Mentioned in relation to the Steelers' quarterback situation.
Dak Prescott - Mentioned in relation to the Cowboys' offense.
Saquon Barkley - Mentioned in relation to the Giants' offense.
Jalen Carter - Mentioned in relation to the Eagles' defense.
Will Levis - Mentioned in relation to the Titans' offense.
A.J. Brown - Mentioned in relation to the Eagles' offense.
Jalen Carter - Mentioned in relation to the Eagles' defense.
Will Levis - Mentioned in relation to the Titans' offense.
Derrick Henry - Mentioned in relation to the Titans' offense.
Jalen Hurts - Mentioned in relation to the Eagles' offense.
A.J. Brown -