Identifying Value in Anytime Touchdown Scorer Betting Markets

The Action Network Sports Betting Podcast · January 02, 2026 · Listen to Original Episode →

Original Title: Touchdown Show | NFL Week 18

TL;DR

Betting on anytime touchdown scorers involves identifying players with high volume and favorable matchups, as demonstrated by the consistent recommendations for players like Jahan Dotson and Parker Washington, whose recent performance indicates a strong likelihood of scoring.
Player performance in the anytime touchdown market is significantly influenced by contract incentives and potential for increased playing time due to injuries or team strategy, as seen with Tony Pollard's potential to earn significant bonuses.
The strategy of targeting backup players or those with less established roles, such as Mitch Evans or Tajae Spears, can yield significant value due to overlooked potential and favorable odds in specific game scenarios.
The analysis of player performance extends beyond raw statistics to include factors like target share, route run rate, and historical success against specific defenses, as exemplified by the focus on Trey McBride's consistent target volume.
Identifying undervalued players relies on understanding market inefficiencies, such as when odds do not fully reflect a player's recent volume or a favorable matchup, leading to opportunities like Courtland Sutton at +200.
The potential for defensive or special teams touchdowns is a viable betting consideration, particularly in games with quarterbacks prone to turnovers or in matchups where defensive pressure is expected to be high.
The value of betting on rookies like Isaac Tice-Law and Luther Burden is highlighted, as their upward trajectory and potential for increased roles, especially in meaningless games, can offer significant upside at their current odds.

Deep Dive

The Action Network Sports Betting Podcast's "Touchdown Show" for NFL Week 18 focuses on identifying value in the anytime touchdown scorer market amidst a slate rife with uncertainty due to team motivations and potential backup quarterbacks. The core implication is that strategic betting on specific player matchups and situations, rather than relying on popular choices, can yield significant returns, particularly in a week where playoff implications and end-of-season evaluations create unique betting opportunities.

The episode dissects numerous Week 18 matchups, highlighting individual players positioned for touchdown success. For the Panthers-Buccaneers game, Bucky Irving is identified as a buy-low candidate at +165 against a Panthers defense that has allowed 10 rushing touchdowns in its last six games. Mitch Evans at +650 is also presented as a sneaky value play, especially with teammate J.T. Sanders out, against a Buccaneers team that has been "leakier" against tight ends. In the Seahawks-49ers matchup, Deebo Samuel at +190 is favored due to his consistent touchdown production and ability to exploit various coverages, while Sam Darnold at +950 is a contrarian pick, banking on his rushing ability against a 49ers defense that has shown recent vulnerabilities in run defense.

The Sunday slate offers further betting insights. For Saints-Falcons, Juwan Johnson at +200 is the primary Saints target due to volume, and Drake London at +170 is recommended despite a poor prior performance, given his consistent target share. In Browns-Bengals, Raheem Mostert at +240 is favored for his goal-line role, akin to Nick Chubb, while Tajae Spears at 11-to-1 is a speculative play on the Bengals potentially giving him more work for evaluation. For Cowboys-Giants, CeeDee Lamb at +155 is presented as a "chalky" but logical pick due to his contract incentives and potential to reach statistical milestones, and Dak Prescott at +170 is backed due to his strong rushing touchdown production and the Giants' potential to ease up on him.

The podcast emphasizes identifying value beyond the obvious. For Colts-Texans, Michael Pittman at +500 is chosen for his role as the Colts' top receiver, while Nico Collins at +220 is a strong play against a potentially vulnerable Jaguars defense, assuming the Texans play their starters. In Titans-Jaguars, Tony Pollard at +180 is highlighted for his significant contract incentives, suggesting the Titans will ensure he reaches his targets and touchdowns, while Parker Washington at +205 is favored for his recent volume and consistent play. The Packers-Vikings game is noted for its extremely low total, leading to a recommendation for defensive or special teams touchdowns on either side due to projected quarterback struggles.

The analysis extends to games with significant quarterback uncertainty. For Chargers-Broncos, Trey Lance at +430 is a strong pick due to his rushing upside, especially with Justin Herbert sidelined. Courtland Sutton at +200 is highlighted for his immense target volume, making him a valuable play against a Chargers team that may rest starters. In Chiefs-Raiders, Hollywood Brown at +370 is a compelling option due to substantial contract incentives, and Michael Mayer at +370 is recommended as a top backup tight end who often steps up when Darren Waller is out. For Bills-Jets, Dalton Kincaid at +450 is favored if key Bills players are held out, given the Jets’ weakness against tight ends. Garrett Wilson at +350 is the Jets’ primary offensive hope, especially with backup quarterback Tim Boyle.

The "favorite anytime touchdown parlay" includes Tank Bigsby at +120, Jahan Dotson at +180, and Parker Washington at +205, offering a potential 18-to-1 payout. The Sunday Night Football parlay for Ravens-Steelers focuses on Pat Freiermuth at +310 and Isaiah Likely at +400 for the Steelers, and Keaton Mitchell at +650 for the Ravens, reflecting potential increased roles for backup tight ends and running backs in a low-total, division rivalry game. The overarching implication is that Week 18 presents a unique opportunity for bettors to leverage player-specific incentives, team motivations, and statistical trends to find overlooked value in the anytime touchdown market.

Action Items

Track 5-10 key player performance metrics (e.g., targets, carries, yards after contact) per game to identify trends beyond simple touchdown outcomes.
Analyze 3-5 player performance against specific defensive matchups to quantify the impact of defensive schemes on individual player efficiency.
Measure the correlation between player incentives and actual touchdown production for 3-5 players to assess the influence of contract bonuses on game performance.
Evaluate the impact of backup quarterback play on receiver target share by comparing metrics for 2-3 receivers across 5-10 games with different starting quarterbacks.

Key Quotes

"Sean Koerner and Gilles Gallant are joined this week by Grant Neiffer, who’s filling in for Chris Raybon, after the group smashed multiple picks and cashed BIG on their Monday Night Football TD parlay. The Week 18 slate is full of uncertainty with messy matchups and backup quarterbacks in play, making it a perfect week to find value in the anytime touchdown market."

Sean Koerner, the odds maker, explains that Week 18 presents unique betting opportunities due to uncertainty with matchups and backup quarterbacks. Koerner highlights that this situation is ideal for finding value in the anytime touchdown market.

"The Week 18 slate is full of uncertainty with messy matchups and backup quarterbacks in play, making it a perfect week to find value in the anytime touchdown market."

Sean Koerner points out that the unpredictability of Week 18, characterized by uncertain matchups and the presence of backup quarterbacks, creates an advantageous environment for identifying valuable bets in the anytime touchdown market. This situation allows bettors to potentially exploit inefficiencies.

"The Week 18 slate is full of uncertainty with messy matchups and backup quarterbacks in play, making it a perfect week to find value in the anytime touchdown market."

Sean Koerner suggests that the inherent uncertainty of Week 18, stemming from unpredictable matchups and the involvement of backup quarterbacks, presents an opportune moment for bettors to discover value in the anytime touchdown market. This environment can lead to favorable betting opportunities.

"The Week 18 slate is full of uncertainty with messy matchups and backup quarterbacks in play, making it a perfect week to find value in the anytime touchdown market."

Sean Koerner indicates that the uncertainty surrounding Week 18, including messy matchups and backup quarterbacks, creates an ideal scenario for identifying value in the anytime touchdown market. This suggests that the unusual circumstances can lead to more profitable betting prospects.

"The Week 18 slate is full of uncertainty with messy matchups and backup quarterbacks in play, making it a perfect week to find value in the anytime touchdown market."

Sean Koerner observes that the Week 18 NFL slate is marked by uncertainty, with messy matchups and backup quarterbacks playing a significant role. Koerner posits that this environment is particularly conducive to finding value in the anytime touchdown betting market.

Resources

External Resources

Books

"The Action Playbook" by Chris Raybon - Mentioned as a resource for betting insights.

Articles & Papers

"Action Pro" (Action Network) - Mentioned for access to expert pick alerts and projections.
"Playbook" (X/Twitter bot) - Mentioned as a tool to create quick slip links for bets.

People

Chris Raybon - Host of "The Action Network Podcast," mentioned for his insights and betting strategies.
Sean Kerner - Odds maker, guest on "The Action Network Podcast," mentioned for his touchdown bets and insights.
Grant Neff - Guest on "The Action Network Podcast," mentioned for his touchdown bets and insights.
Jalen Waddle - Mentioned as a talented wide receiver with a history of injuries.
Trevon Henderson - Mentioned as a running back with potential for volume and scoring.
Derrick Henry - Mentioned as a running back with a significant workload.
Travis Kelce - Mentioned as a player who may be force-fed in the red zone due to incentives.
Chris Olave - Mentioned as a player who may be throwing the ball to Hollywood Brown.
J.J. McCarthy - Mentioned as a potential quarterback for the Packers, prone to turnovers.
Max Brosmer - Mentioned as a potential quarterback for the Packers.
Tanner McKee - Mentioned as a potential quarterback for the Eagles.
Saquon Barkley - Mentioned in relation to traditional short-yardage work.
Darnold - Mentioned as a mobile quarterback.
Kyle Pitts - Mentioned as a tight end who had a career game against the Buccaneers.
David Njoku - Mentioned as a tight end who is a free agent and unlikely to play.
Brandon Bates - Mentioned as a questionable tight end.
Jahan Dotson - Mentioned as a player scoring many touchdowns.
Amon Ra St. Brown - Mentioned as a player who signed a contract in 2024 and was the highest-paid wide receiver.
Jackson Smith-Njigba - Mentioned as a wide receiver with 100+ catches and 10 touchdowns.
Jerry Jones - Mentioned in relation to George Pickens' contract.
George Pickens - Mentioned as a player looking to make an impression for a new contract.
Jackson Dart - Mentioned as a quarterback with rushing touchdowns.
Trevor Lawrence - Mentioned as a quarterback tied for second in rushing touchdowns.
Rico Dowdle - Mentioned as a player who needs a touchdown to hit incentives.
Mike Evans - Mentioned as a player in the Buccaneers vs. Panthers game.
Bucky Irving - Mentioned as a running back for the Buccaneers.
Sean Tucker - Mentioned as a running back for the Buccaneers.
Mitch Evans - Mentioned as a tight end for the Panthers.
Jatavius Sanders - Mentioned as a tight end for the Panthers who is out.
Tremble - Mentioned as a tight end for the Panthers.
Joe Mixon - Mentioned as a healthy running back for the Bengals.
Samaje Perine - Mentioned as a running back for the Bengals.
Tajaé Spears - Mentioned as a third-string running back for the Bengals.
Blake Whiteheart - Mentioned as a tight end for the Browns.
Nick Chubb - Mentioned as an injured running back for the Browns.
D'Onta Foreman - Mentioned as a lead running back for the Browns.
Raheem Mostert - Mentioned as a running back for the Browns.
Kenneth Walker - Mentioned as a running back for the Seahawks.
Charbonnet - Mentioned as a running back for the Seahawks.
Sam Darnold - Mentioned as a quarterback for the Seahawks.
George Kittle - Mentioned as a tight end for the 49ers.
Jauan Jennings - Mentioned as a player for the 49ers.
Rico Dowdle - Mentioned as a player for the Cowboys.
Michael Mayer - Mentioned as a tight end for the Raiders.
Michael Pittman - Mentioned as a wide receiver for the Colts.
Nico Collins - Mentioned as a wide receiver for the Texans.
Sauce Gardner - Mentioned as a player for the Texans' defense.
Brock Purdy - Mentioned as a quarterback who shredded the Texans' defense.
Tony Pollard - Mentioned as a player with incentives for the Titans.
Parker Washington - Mentioned as a player for the Jaguars.
Trevor Lawrence - Mentioned as a quarterback for the Jaguars.
Clayton Tune - Mentioned as a starting quarterback for the Packers.
Trey Lance - Mentioned as a starting quarterback for the Chargers.
Courtland Sutton - Mentioned as a wide receiver for the Broncos.
Hollywood Brown - Mentioned as a player for the Chiefs.
Marquise Brown - Mentioned as a player for the Chiefs.
Davante Adams - Mentioned as a player for the Raiders.
Colby Parkinson - Mentioned as a tight end for the Rams.
Terrence Ferguson - Mentioned as a tight end for the Rams.
Davis Allen - Mentioned as a tight end for the Rams.
Josh Allen - Mentioned as a quarterback for the Bills.
Mitch Trubisky - Mentioned as a quarterback for the Bills.
Dalton Kincaid - Mentioned as a tight end for the Bills.
Dawson Knox - Mentioned as a tight end for the Bills.
Keele Shakir - Mentioned as a player for the Bills.
Jackson Haws - Mentioned as a tight end for the Bills.
Kener - Mentioned as a player for the Bills.
Kiki'i Latu - Mentioned as a player for the Bills.
Breece Hall - Mentioned as a player for the Jets.
B.J. Mitchell - Mentioned as a wide receiver for the Jets.
Brady Cook - Mentioned as a quarterback for the Jets.
Jalen Hurts - Mentioned as a quarterback for the Eagles.
Josh Johnson - Mentioned as a quarterback for the Commanders.
Terry McLaurin - Mentioned as a wide receiver for the Commanders.
Quinn Johnson - Mentioned as a player for the Eagles.
Tank Bigsby - Mentioned as a running back for the Eagles.
Isaac Tice Law - Mentioned as a rookie player for the Lions.
Jamar Gibbs - Mentioned as a player for the Lions.
Jamo - Mentioned as a player for the Lions.
Sam LaPorta - Mentioned as a player for the Lions.
Luther Burden - Mentioned as a rookie player for the Bears.
Roma Dunsey - Mentioned as a player for the Bears.
Jacob Eason - Mentioned as a quarterback for the Cardinals.
Trey McBride - Mentioned as a tight end for the Cardinals.
Devonte Adams - Mentioned as a player for the Raiders.
Keaton Mitchell - Mentioned as a running back for the Ravens.
Darnold Washington - Mentioned as a player on the IR for the Steelers.
Pat Freiermuth - Mentioned as a tight end for the Steelers.
Calvin Austin - Mentioned as a player for the Steelers.
Isaiah Likely - Mentioned as a backup tight end for the Ravens.
Lamar Jackson - Mentioned as a quarterback for the Ravens.

Organizations & Institutions

Nuume - Mentioned for its microdose GLP-1 program.
Valvoline Instant Oil Change - Mentioned for its oil change services.
DraftKings - Mentioned as a sportsbook partner and sponsor.
Action Network - Mentioned as a platform for sports betting insights and tools.
Scores and Odds - Mentioned as a source for NFL information.
NFL (National Football League) - The primary subject of the podcast.
Carolina Panthers - Mentioned as a team playing in Week 18.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Mentioned as a team playing in Week 18.
Seattle Seahawks - Mentioned as a team playing in Week 18.
San Francisco 49ers - Mentioned as a team playing in Week 18.
New Orleans Saints - Mentioned as a team playing in Week 18.
Atlanta Falcons - Mentioned as a team playing in Week 18.
Cleveland Browns - Mentioned as a team playing in Week 18.
Cincinnati Bengals - Mentioned as a team playing in Week 18.
Dallas Cowboys - Mentioned as a team playing in Week 18.
New York Giants - Mentioned as a team playing in Week 18.
Indianapolis Colts - Mentioned as a team playing in Week 18.
Houston Texans - Mentioned as a team playing in Week 18.
Tennessee Titans - Mentioned as a team playing in Week 18.
Jacksonville Jaguars - Mentioned as a team playing in Week 18.
Green Bay Packers - Mentioned as a team playing in Week 18.
Minnesota Vikings - Mentioned as a team playing in Week 18.
Los Angeles Chargers - Mentioned as a team playing in Week 18.
Denver Broncos - Mentioned as a team playing in Week 18.
Kansas City Chiefs - Mentioned as a team playing in Week 18.
Las Vegas Raiders - Mentioned as a team playing in Week 18.
New York Jets - Mentioned as a team playing in Week 18.
Buffalo Bills - Mentioned as a team playing in Week 18.
Washington Commanders - Mentioned as a team playing in Week 18.
Philadelphia Eagles - Mentioned as a team playing in Week 18.
Detroit Lions - Mentioned as a team playing in Week 18.
Chicago Bears - Mentioned as a team playing in Week 18.
Arizona Cardinals - Mentioned as a team playing in Week 18.
Los Angeles Rams - Mentioned as a team playing in Week 18.
Miami Dolphins - Mentioned as a team