NFL Week 16 Betting: Identifying Value Through Team Trends and Matchups

Key Quotes

"The team total implied for the raiders is 10 and a half and it was 12 and a half i think at open and it's just continues to drop the crazy thing is the raiders have gone under that i think six times already this season so i look when this you know i always just kind of start from blank okay what's the line what's the total and go from there and immediately i was like raiders team total under like raiders mind shaft we're all in on no raiders scoring but 10 and a half is so low like 10 and a half is the alt under that i wanted we did that a couple weeks ago with the raiders and had it all the way until the stupid like last 10 points and that that crazy cover at the end a couple weeks ago so look i can't play a straight under 10 and a half like that's what i think's gonna happen but so disrespectful"

Brandon Anderson highlights the extremely low implied team total for the Raiders, indicating a lack of confidence in their scoring ability. He notes that this low total, even for an alternative line, is something he considered previously, suggesting a consistent theme of offensive struggles for the team. Anderson expresses that while he believes the Raiders will go under this total, he finds it difficult to bet on such a low number directly.

"normally we throw in like five favorites and maybe one underdog or try to get a few shorter favorites and we get ourselves to like a five to one maybe an eight to one we've hit a couple in that range this week a little something different we're hoping for a christmas miracle this week we're going with four four underdogs this week plus two favorites one of whom is the saints so we got saints favorites with the lions well that's our two favorites and then titans dolphins patriots and colts that's what we're doing this week it is last i checked at draftkings 114 to one odds so this is like pizza money let's see if we can get a little extra christmas money get that big screen for the wall or whatever it is that you've been looking for this is that sort of bet"

Brandon Anderson explains his "Pick Six" bet strategy for the week, deviating from his usual approach of favoring favorites. He details that this week's selection includes four underdogs and two favorites, aiming for a long-shot "Christmas miracle" bet with 114-to-1 odds. Anderson frames this bet as "pizza money," suggesting it's a fun, low-stakes wager for a potentially large payout.

"jared goff indoors with the lions 37 and 15 and one against the spread 71 and then your stat that you bring up often after a loss since november 2022 now 15 straight wins for the lions coming off a loss 14 and one ats covering by 11 points a game so these aren't even close like they are showing up they're taking care of business and detroit right now not a playoff team but they still pretty much control their fate if they went out i think they're like 98 or something and i i have a really good chance and i think they think that too this offense looks elite"

Brandon Anderson emphasizes the Detroit Lions' strong performance following a loss, citing a 14-1 against-the-spread record since November 2022, with an average cover margin of 11 points. He also highlights Jared Goff's impressive home record against the spread. Anderson suggests that the Lions, despite not being a playoff lock, still control their destiny and have an elite offense that is performing exceptionally well.

"man life comes at you fast we are backing the two and 12 titans against the mighty chiefs in a december game a week ago i would not have believed this i would have thought throw the chiefs into the pick six easy one don't need to worry about it but look the titans are kind of playing not horribly more bad than awful cam ward pretty solid season for rookie number one the offensive line starting to gel finally coming together with callahan down the stretch tannehill is running well the last couple of weeks if you look at just like the last six weeks for the titans they got blown out by jacksonville but they won in cleveland that's not nothing and they were pretty competitive against the chargers texans seahawks and niners look that's the teams we just said the steelers are losing to by double digits and the titans are actually hanging in closer in these games"

Brandon Anderson expresses surprise at backing the 2-12 Titans against the Chiefs, acknowledging how quickly circumstances can change in the NFL. He notes that the Titans have been playing "not horribly" recently, highlighting improvements in their offensive line and quarterback Tannehill's running ability. Anderson points out that the Titans have been competitive against several teams that have recently suffered significant losses, suggesting they are showing signs of improvement.

"dallas obviously out of the playoffs now we just mentioned with the vikings game will they even show up like like there's a chance dallas just mails this one in and that's how we hit the under and that's a pretty easy decision if that's the case if dallas shows though like you said pretty interesting matchup very strength on strength weakness on weakness so you get dallas offense chargers defense in particular dallas's passing game that's the thing we know they do especially well the run game had been quite good with clayton adams but it's fallen off a lot in the middle of the season i think that's a problem here because the chargers can be run on but their pass defense is top five dvoa"

Brandon Anderson suggests that the Dallas Cowboys might not be motivated playing a game after being eliminated from playoff contention. He posits that if Dallas "mails it in," it could lead to hitting the "under" bet. Anderson then contrasts the Cowboys' offense, particularly their passing game, with the Chargers' strong pass defense, noting a potential weakness in Dallas's run game that could be exploited.

"the panthers probably got to sweep the bucks now standing in carolina's way is very funny former panthers quarterbacks baker mayfield and then sam darnold next week in between so that's what's coming this is another game that sets up as a first half second half thing i'm not going to play it because i don't really trust either of these teams right now but carolina really bad in the first half where the bucks have a winning ats record and then flip that in the second half so if you want to do a first half second half we got a lot of those this week this one sets up that way as well i kind of wanted bucks here but my numbers don't agree with me my numbers actually make carolina favored so i just don't trust either team right now"

Brandon Anderson notes the significance of the Buccaneers-Panthers game for the NFC South standings and points out the unusual situation of facing former Panthers quarterbacks. He identifies a potential first-half/second-