Fantasy Premier League: Prioritize Minutes and Midfielders for Christmas Period - Episode Hero Image

Fantasy Premier League: Prioritize Minutes and Midfielders for Christmas Period

Let's Talk FPL · · Listen to Original Episode →
Original Title:

TL;DR

  • Bruno Fernandes, as the top-scoring midfielder, offers consistent 90-minute play and penalty duties, making him a reliable asset during the busy Christmas fixture period despite not having elite underlying metrics.
  • Ingsmoo's potential transfer to Foden is a reasonable move for long-term planning, but keeping Ingsmoo for a home fixture against Bournemouth remains viable due to his strong open-play stats.
  • Antoinne Semenyo, despite recent poor returns, presents a short-term punt opportunity against Burnley at home due to his guaranteed minutes and lower price point, before facing tougher fixtures.
  • Eze's minutes are not guaranteed due to Arsenal's squad depth and Odegaard's return, making him a risky pick despite a favorable fixture against Wolves, suggesting a potential sell after that match.
  • Raul Jimenez is a strong short-term option at 6.2 million, offering nailed-on status and penalty duties, making him a good bench-boost candidate or alternative to Thiago.
  • Matty Cash, while a cheap and nailed-on defender, has unsustainable attacking returns and a challenging upcoming fixture run, making him a less compelling pick compared to defenders with better clean sheet potential.
  • Jean-Philippe Mateta's minutes may dip and he is not on penalties, making him an unappealing transfer target despite a decent fixture run, with a return to consideration only from Gameweek 19.

Deep Dive

Bruno Fernandes stands out as the top-scoring midfielder in Fantasy Premier League, making him a compelling option for the upcoming congested Christmas period. While not strictly essential, his guaranteed minutes, penalty duties, and decent underlying statistics make him a strong pick, especially when compared to other midfield options like Foden. The key implication is that managers should prioritize players with consistent playtime during this fixture-heavy stretch, and Fernandes fits that bill.

The analysis then delves into several other players, highlighting the nuanced decisions managers face due to the abundance of free transfers. For instance, Bryan Mbeumo is a reasonable short-term hold for a fixture against Bournemouth before his likely departure for the Africa Cup of Nations, but a transfer to Foden is also a sensible move. Antoine Semenyo presents a similar dilemma; he's a viable one-week punt against Burnley at home, but long-term prospects are less certain due to challenging fixtures against Chelsea and Arsenal. This underscores that with five free transfers, short-term, opportunistic moves are more feasible than in previous seasons, allowing managers to leverage favorable individual fixtures without committing long-term.

The forward position appears less appealing, with a general lack of value and exciting options. While Darwin Núñez's injury and Mohamed Salah's impending absence from Liverpool might open up minutes for others like Diogo Jota, his secure starting position and penalty responsibility are questioned, alongside concerns about minutes and goal contributions. Instead, the podcast suggests that investing in defenders and midfielders offers better long-term value, citing the appeal of a Haaland-Thiago-Guehi forward line as a stable core. This implies a strategic shift away from premium forwards towards more reliable, high-minute midfielders and defenders who offer consistent returns.

Fulham's attackers, Harry Wilson and Raul Jimenez, are positioned as short-term options. Jimenez, in particular, is highlighted for his "nailed-on" status and penalty duties at a reasonable price, making him a good option for bench-boosting strategies in the immediate game weeks. However, his long-term viability diminishes with tougher fixtures after Gameweek 18. Conversely, Jean Philippe Mateta's appeal is waning due to difficult upcoming fixtures, with the podcast suggesting it's acceptable to sell him if other team issues necessitate it, despite his underlying numbers and guaranteed minutes.

Eberechi Eze's minutes at Crystal Palace are a significant concern due to Arsenal's midfield depth, making him a player to monitor, with a potential sell after a favorable home fixture against Wolves. The podcast strongly advises against buying Newcastle's Alexander Isak, citing poor upcoming fixtures and potential minute reductions, with a focus shifting to players like Visser once he regains fitness. Finally, Matty Cash at Aston Villa, while cheap and attacking, is deemed a less attractive proposition than a nailed-on center-back with better clean sheet potential, suggesting that focusing on defensive solidity and consistent minutes is a more sustainable FPL strategy than chasing attacking returns from full-backs in difficult fixture runs. The overarching implication is that while short-term punts are viable, a core of reliable, high-minute players in midfield and defense offers the most robust strategy for navigating the season.

Action Items

  • Audit player transfer data: Identify 3-5 midfielders with high variance between expected goals (xG) and actual goals over the last 6 game weeks to assess performance sustainability.
  • Create player evaluation framework: Define criteria for assessing midfielder value, prioritizing consistent minutes, penalty involvement, and defensive contribution potential over recent form.
  • Track fixture run impact: For 3-5 selected midfielders, analyze the correlation between their underlying stats and upcoming fixture difficulty over a 6-game week period.
  • Measure midfielder minutes consistency: For 3-5 midfielders, calculate the average minutes played per start and identify any patterns of early substitutions to gauge reliability.
  • Calculate midfield value differential: For 3-5 midfielders, compare their price point against their expected points per 90 (xP90) and defensive contribution potential to identify value.

Related Episodes

Key Quotes

"please just for today let me have this one no negativity i don't need to hear that declan rice is better value bruno fernandes four midfielders and 9 million has the most points in fpl you know what he might just be an okay pick after all these seasons please just let me have this one but we need to talk about him seriously as well is he worth bringing in yes in my opinion"

The author expresses a desire for a moment of uncritical appreciation for Bruno Fernandes, highlighting his status as the top-scoring midfielder in FPL despite potential criticisms regarding value compared to other players. The author then transitions to a serious discussion about his actual worth as a transfer target.

"you want players that you can guarantee are going to play 90 minutes now obviously that has to be some nuance there as well you don't want to buy bad players just because they're going to play 90 but bruno fernandes is not a bad player you look at the fixtures coming up 19 to 21 is definitely better than 16 to 18 but over the next six game weeks three of them are at home one of them is wolves bournemouth at home this week is not that bad and then the two away games are leeds away and burnley away"

The author emphasizes the importance of selecting players who are guaranteed to play full matches, particularly during the busy Christmas period. The author clarifies that this doesn't mean acquiring poor players, but rather that Bruno Fernandes is a strong option because he is not a bad player and has a favorable upcoming fixture run.

"according to the stats on fantasy football hub he's up at 0 22 expected goals per 90 0 24 expected assists now they are not elite numbers by any means there'll be players out there with better numbers than that but not many of them play 90 minutes week in week out and are on penalties and have defensive contribution potential as well"

The author presents Bruno Fernandes' underlying statistics for expected goals and assists per 90 minutes, acknowledging they are not elite. However, the author argues that his consistent 90-minute playing time, penalty duties, and potential for defensive contributions make him a valuable pick despite not having the absolute best individual metrics.

"i would also go as far to say this if you've got a decision between foden and bruno i would buy bruno first it's not that foden is bad i really want him in my team and that will happen soon but i do think fernandes is a better pick overall"

The author directly compares Bruno Fernandes to another popular player, Foden, and states a preference for Fernandes. The author clarifies that this is not a slight against Foden but rather a belief that Fernandes represents a superior overall choice for an FPL team at this time.

"the stats he's putting up from open play are still really good 0 34 expected goals per 90 0 21 expected assists worth saying last night from the right side amad was taking corners so he has lost a few set pieces but he's still a good option bournemouth at home is not a terrible fixture it's more than reasonable to keep him for one more week before you sell him"

The author highlights that despite losing some set-piece duties, the player in question, presumably referring to a midfielder like Iñaki Williams or similar, still demonstrates strong underlying statistics for expected goals and assists from open play. The author concludes that this player remains a viable option, especially with an upcoming favorable home fixture.

"my main problem with buying him is even with those injuries and even with salah being away i still don't necessarily think that the minutes are fully secure like he's not going to play close to 90 most games i would argue he's not on penalties either like Salah's obviously going away someone else has to take penalties but you'd imagine that mccallister solsai and ezeiza are all ahead of ezeiza and you look at his minutes in fact if i just go back to the graphics there like it's 75 minutes per start"

The author expresses significant reservations about a particular player, citing concerns about guaranteed playing time and penalty duties, even with other attackers out. The author suggests that other players are likely ahead in the pecking order for minutes and penalty responsibility, pointing to a history of not playing full matches.

Resources

External Resources

Books

  • "Fantasy Football Hub" - Mentioned as a source for player statistics.

Articles & Papers

  • "The 340B Hospital Markup Program" (Pharma) - Discussed as a program where hospitals mark up discounted drugs.

People

  • Bruno Fernandes - Mentioned as the top-scoring midfielder in FPL so far this season.
  • Mbeumo - Discussed as a player who picked up a yellow card but was back on the score sheet.
  • Semenyo - Mentioned as a midfielder whose ownership is high but is being sold by many managers.
  • Icardi - Discussed in relation to his scoring potential and competition for minutes.
  • Gakpo - Mentioned as being out for a few weeks, impacting attacking options.
  • Salah - Discussed as likely not playing in Gameweek 16 and going to AFCON.
  • Ezeiza - Mentioned as a potential starter due to injuries to other attackers.
  • McAllister - Mentioned as being ahead of Ezeiza in the pecking order.
  • Solsai - Mentioned as being ahead of Ezeiza in the pecking order.
  • Haaland - Mentioned as a top-scoring forward.
  • Thiago - Mentioned as a top-scoring forward.
  • Bowen - Mentioned as a potential option over Christmas.
  • Pedro - Mentioned as a forward option.
  • Richarlison - Mentioned as a forward option.
  • Welbeck - Mentioned as a forward option who might be benched.
  • Voltemite - Mentioned as a forward option.
  • Visser - Mentioned as a forward option who is not going to AFCON.
  • Harry Wilson - Mentioned as a midfielder at 5.2 million with nice upcoming fixtures.
  • Raul Jimenez - Mentioned as a forward at 6.2 million who is nailed on and on penalties.
  • Jairo - Mentioned as a long-term pick preferred over Harry Wilson.
  • Jean Kube Mente - Mentioned as a player currently in the speaker's team, with questions about selling him.
  • Saka - Mentioned as a player who is first choice and a great captaincy option.
  • Odegaard - Mentioned as being back and having a central position.
  • Trossard - Mentioned as having done well on the left wing.
  • Martinelli - Mentioned as a player who can play on the left wing.
  • Arteta - Mentioned in the context of his preferred starting XI.
  • Rice - Mentioned as a player who could be behind Odegaard.
  • Zinchenko - Mentioned as a player who could be behind Odegaard.
  • Keane - Mentioned as an Everton player.
  • Juezbury Hall - Mentioned as a player many are bringing in, a nice long-term pick.
  • Matty Cash - Mentioned as a defender with the most transfers in this week.
  • Munoz - Mentioned as a player whose attacking numbers are okay.
  • Son - Mentioned as an example of a player who overperformed and then went off the boil.
  • Eddie - Mentioned in the context of managing players more than normal.
  • Gordon - Mentioned as being ahead of Voltemar.
  • Nick Vlarmada - Mentioned as a player who is probably okay to hold or sell.

Organizations & Institutions

  • Viori - Mentioned as a brand of shorts.
  • Blinds.com - Mentioned for home blinds.
  • Pharma - Mentioned in relation to the 340b hospital markup program.
  • Man United - Mentioned as a team with upcoming fixtures.
  • Bournemouth - Mentioned as a team with upcoming fixtures.
  • Leeds - Mentioned as a team with upcoming fixtures.
  • Burnley - Mentioned as a team with upcoming fixtures.
  • Aston Villa - Mentioned as a team with upcoming fixtures.
  • Newcastle - Mentioned as a team with upcoming fixtures.
  • Liverpool - Mentioned as a team with upcoming fixtures.
  • Brighton - Mentioned as a team with upcoming fixtures.
  • Spurs - Mentioned as a team with upcoming fixtures.
  • Wolves - Mentioned as a team with upcoming fixtures.
  • Chelsea - Mentioned as a team with upcoming fixtures.
  • Arsenal - Mentioned as a team with upcoming fixtures.
  • Fulham - Mentioned as a team with upcoming fixtures.
  • West Ham - Mentioned as a team with upcoming fixtures.
  • Everton - Mentioned as a team with upcoming fixtures.
  • Fantasy Football Hub - Mentioned as a source for player statistics.
  • Pro Football Focus (PFF) - Mentioned as a data source.
  • National Football League (NFL) - Mentioned in relation to data analysis.
  • New England Patriots - Mentioned as an example team.
  • Sports Social Podcast Network - Mentioned as the network for the podcast.
  • Monster Energy - Mentioned as a brand of zero sugar energy drinks.

Websites & Online Resources

  • viori.com/arch - Mentioned for a discount on shorts.
  • podcastchoices.com/adchoices - Mentioned for ad choices.
  • 340bmarkup.org - Mentioned for learning more about the 340b hospital markup program.
  • linktr.ee/letstalkfpl - Mentioned for following the host on social media.
  • fantasyfootballhub.co.uk - Mentioned as a source for player statistics.

Other Resources

  • FPL (Fantasy Premier League) - Mentioned as a game with transfer tips.
  • Gameweek 16 - Mentioned as the current gameweek for transfer tips.
  • African Cup of Nations (AFCON) - Mentioned as a reason for player unavailability.
  • Expected Goals (xG) - Mentioned as a statistical metric.
  • Expected Assists (xA) - Mentioned as a statistical metric.
  • Defensive Contributions (Def Cons) - Mentioned as a potential output from players.
  • Set Pieces - Mentioned in relation to player roles.
  • Bench Boost - Mentioned as a strategy in FPL.
  • Free Hit - Mentioned in relation to FPL drafts.
  • 3-5-2 Formation - Mentioned as a preferred team structure.
  • 4-4-2 Formation - Mentioned as a preferred team structure.
  • 3-4-3 Formation - Mentioned as a possible team structure.
  • Zero Sugar Energy Drink - Mentioned in relation to Monster Energy's Ultra line.

---
Handpicked links, AI-assisted summaries. Human judgment, machine efficiency.
This content is a personally curated review and synopsis derived from the original podcast episode.