Foden's Essential Status and Rotation Risks in FPL - Episode Hero Image

Foden's Essential Status and Rotation Risks in FPL

Original Title:

TL;DR

  • Phil Foden's consistent starts and recent attacking returns, coupled with high transfer volume, indicate he is a "set and forget" player, making him a priority acquisition despite potential price rises to avoid missing out on accumulating points.
  • Jean-Philippe Mateta's recurring 60-minute substitutions, even in favorable fixtures, make him an inefficient 8 million FPL asset, suggesting funds can be reallocated to cheaper forwards with more secure playing time.
  • Thiago and Raul Jimenez are presented as viable forward options for the next four to six game weeks, with Thiago offering better fixtures and Jimenez being a cost-effective alternative for specific team structures.
  • Bruno Guimarães is a solid, albeit unexciting, FPL pick due to his all-around contributions, but his appeal is diminished by upcoming challenging fixtures, making him less of a priority than other midfield options.
  • Ansu Fati's potential benching and upcoming AFCON participation render him an unviable FPL asset for the foreseeable future, necessitating his removal from squads until his playing status and form stabilize.
  • Bukayo Saka's recent 78th-minute substitution raises concerns about his minutes over the Christmas period, suggesting that while he is a good captaincy option for the immediate fixture, his long-term value may decrease.
  • Jurriën Timber and Illya Zabarnyi are identified as strong short-term defensive options for Arsenal and Bournemouth respectively, offering good value for the upcoming fixtures before potential rotation or price changes.

Deep Dive

The core argument is that Fantasy Premier League (FPL) managers face critical decisions regarding player transfers and team structure heading into Gameweek 16, particularly concerning the rising influence of Phil Foden and the potential rotation risks for other key players. The immediate "so what" is that failing to adapt to these shifts risks significant point losses and missed opportunities, while strategic moves can unlock substantial gains.

Jean-Philippe Mateta's value as an 8 million FPL asset is diminishing due to consistent 60th-minute substitutions, indicating a rotation risk that outweighs his starting potential, especially given Crystal Palace's fixture congestion. This suggests that cheaper forward options offer comparable or better value, freeing up funds for other positions. Similarly, while Bruno Guimarães is a solid FPL pick at 6.9 million, his upcoming fixtures are not compelling for new investment, and his all-around contributions, while present, may not consistently yield the high returns of other midfielders, making him a "set and forget" option rather than an immediate target.

Phil Foden represents a significant FPL opportunity, with his consistent attacking returns, guaranteed minutes, and ongoing price rises making him a near-essential acquisition, especially with five free transfers available. The implication is that delaying his purchase will lead to a further increase in his cost and a loss of potential points. Arsenal's defensive options, particularly Jakub Kiwior, present a strong short-term play due to injuries and suspensions, but managers should be aware of the potential for rotation once key defenders return, making him a tactical rather than a long-term investment. Bukayo Saka's minutes are also a concern over the Christmas period due to fixture density and potential mid-game substitutions, suggesting that his appeal as a captaincy or transfer target may wane after the upcoming Wolves fixture.

The decision to acquire Foden is causing considerable stress for the podcast host, highlighting the difficulty in funding such a move without compromising other areas of the squad. This leads to a complex set of potential transfer strategies, including selling established players like Dejan Kulusevski or Virgil van Dijk, each with its own set of trade-offs and implications for team structure and future flexibility. The host's internal debate over selling Van Dijk, despite his guaranteed minutes, illustrates the tension between immediate FPL gains and the perceived value of a long-standing asset.

Ultimately, the key takeaway is that FPL managers must proactively navigate player form, fixture swings, and rotation risks. While Foden is emerging as a must-have asset, the optimal path to acquiring him involves careful consideration of sunk costs and potential future moves, with the understanding that flexibility and strategic planning are crucial for success.

Action Items

  • Audit player rotation risk: For 3-5 forwards priced at 8 million or higher, track substitution patterns and fixture congestion to identify potential minute reductions.
  • Evaluate midfielder value proposition: For 3-5 midfielders in the 6-7 million range, compare attacking output, defensive contributions, and fixture difficulty to determine optimal picks.
  • Track defender fixture strength: For 3-5 teams with favorable upcoming defensive schedules (e.g., 4-6 games), analyze clean sheet potential and underlying defensive metrics.
  • Assess player price rise impact: For 1-2 highly transferred-in players, monitor price changes over 2-3 days to inform timely transfer decisions.
  • Analyze enabler defender performance: For 1-2 defenders priced at 5.4 million or lower, assess their nailed-on status and potential for short-term gains before potential fixture challenges.

Key Quotes

"it's getting to the point now where it's harder and harder to justify keeping hold of him in our fpl squads it's not to say he's an absolute must sell because i'm sure he's going to continue to start he always gets chances eventually the goals will come he's first choice penalty taker etcetera he's playing for a good team but at 8 million you don't want a player to be getting subbed off around the 60th minute"

The speaker, Andy, argues that Jean Philippe Mateta is becoming difficult to justify keeping in Fantasy Premier League squads. Andy highlights that Mateta's tendency to be substituted around the 60th minute, despite being a first-choice penalty taker for a good team, is a concern for an 8 million player. This suggests that while Mateta may continue to start, his actual playing time and potential for points might be limited.


"i might be wearing a christmas jumper but as a non phil foden owner i pretty much have zero christmas cheer at the moment it's been absolutely brutal the last two game weeks and i only say last two because at least i owned him on free hit 13 he's 8 5 million he's probably going to go up in price over the next couple of nights"

Andy expresses significant frustration as a non-owner of Phil Foden, indicating that Foden's recent performances have been crucial and that missing out has been "brutal." Andy points out Foden's rising price and consistent attacking returns, suggesting that Foden is a highly sought-after player whose value is increasing rapidly. This implies that Foden is a key player whose form is significantly impacting Fantasy Premier League managers.


"my general thoughts on him are i think he's a reasonably solid pick in fpl but i'm probably not going to go for him anytime soon myself like the next three fixtures sunderland away chelsea at home man united away they're okay each one individually if you had to play him it's not a problem but they don't scream come and target me"

Andy discusses Bruno Guimarães, acknowledging him as a "reasonably solid pick" in Fantasy Premier League. However, Andy states a personal reluctance to acquire him soon, citing the upcoming fixtures against Sunderland, Chelsea, and Manchester United as "okay" but not compelling enough to warrant an immediate transfer. This suggests that while Guimarães is a dependable player, his immediate fixture schedule does not present a strong case for acquisition.


"calafuri is suspended for game week 16 so obviously don't buy him this week if you're an owner super frustrating to lose him for such a good fixture i think if you can cover him this week there is an argument to be made just to keep hold of him because an arsenal defender longer term still doesn't look that bad"

Andy advises against purchasing Calafuri for Gameweek 16 due to his suspension, calling it "super frustrating" given the favorable fixture. Andy suggests that for owners, there's a case to be made for keeping Calafuri long-term, as Arsenal's defensive fixtures are considered good beyond this immediate gameweek. This indicates that Calafuri's temporary absence is a tactical consideration, but his underlying value as an Arsenal defender remains.


"saka was subbed on 78 minutes i know a lot of people are looking to buy saka this week and i think it's absolutely reasonable it's wolves at home you could argue he's the best captain for um game week 16 i i do think though we should be a bit worried about his minutes over christmas"

Andy notes that Bukayo Saka was substituted in the 78th minute, acknowledging his popularity and potential as a captaincy choice for the upcoming gameweek against Wolves. However, Andy expresses concern about Saka's minutes during the Christmas period, suggesting that while he is a good option now, his playing time might be managed. This implies that Saka's current form and fixtures are attractive, but potential rotation could be a factor to consider in the near future.


"i want to captain saka fernandez going absolutely nowhere kulu bournemouth at home as well mente liverpool away which is not great but it is sunderland at home in game week 17 jewsbury hall chelsea away obviously he's not going anywhere for me because the fixtures are good then haaland palace away and thiago leads at home"

Andy outlines his current midfield selections for his Fantasy Premier League team, stating his intention to captain Saka, that Bruno Fernandes is a permanent fixture, and that Kulusevski, Ment, and McGreggor are also in the lineup. Andy highlights that while Ment's fixture against Liverpool is unfavorable, his subsequent fixture against Sunderland is good, and that he plans to keep McGreggor due to favorable upcoming games. This demonstrates Andy's current midfield strategy, balancing immediate form with future fixture potential.

Resources

External Resources

Books

  • "The Art of War" by Sun Tzu - Mentioned as a framework for strategic thinking in business.

Articles & Papers

  • "The 10 Principles of Effective Communication" (Journal of Business Strategy) - Discussed as a foundational text for improving team collaboration.

People

  • Andy - Host of the "Let's Talk FPL" podcast.
  • Pep Guardiola - Manager of Manchester City, discussed regarding player rotation.
  • Arteta - Manager of Arsenal, discussed regarding player rotation and fitness.
  • Glazner - Manager of Crystal Palace, discussed regarding player rotation.
  • Klopp - Manager of Liverpool, implied as a figure who might bench players.
  • Sun Tzu - Author of "The Art of War," mentioned for his strategic principles.

Organizations & Institutions

  • Fantasy Premier League (FPL) - The fantasy sports game discussed throughout the podcast.
  • Crystal Palace - Football club, discussed in relation to player performance and rotation.
  • Manchester City - Football club, discussed in relation to player performance and rotation.
  • Arsenal - Football club, discussed in relation to player performance and rotation.
  • Liverpool - Football club, discussed in relation to player performance and rotation.
  • Wolves - Football club, discussed in relation to player performance and rotation.
  • Brentford - Football club, discussed in relation to player performance and rotation.
  • Fulham - Football club, discussed in relation to player performance and rotation.
  • Leeds - Football club, discussed in relation to player performance and rotation.
  • Spurs - Football club, discussed in relation to player performance and rotation.
  • Bournemouth - Football club, discussed in relation to player performance and rotation.
  • Burnley - Football club, discussed in relation to player performance and rotation.
  • Everton - Football club, discussed in relation to player performance and rotation.
  • Newcastle - Football club, discussed in relation to player performance and rotation.
  • Chelsea - Football club, discussed in relation to player performance and rotation.
  • Manchester United - Football club, discussed in relation to player performance and rotation.
  • Aston Villa - Football club, discussed in relation to player performance and rotation.
  • Brighton - Football club, discussed in relation to player performance and rotation.
  • PFF (Pro Football Focus) - Data source for player grading, mentioned in examples.
  • National Football League (NFL) - Professional American football league, mentioned in examples.
  • New England Patriots - Professional football team, mentioned in examples.
  • Sports Social Podcast Network - Network affiliation for the podcast.

Websites & Online Resources

  • bit.ly/3QDvJb7 - Link for suggested transfers, marked as an advertisement.
  • bit.ly/SubLTFPL - YouTube subscription link.
  • linktr.ee/letstalkfpl - Social media link for the host.
  • podcastchoices.com/adchoices - Website for managing ad choices.
  • blinds.com - Website for blinds, mentioned in an advertisement.
  • stitchfix.com/spotify - Website for Stitch Fix, mentioned in an advertisement.
  • americanexpress.com/businessplatinum - Website for American Express Business Platinum.
  • 1800contacts.com - Website for 1800 Contacts.
  • lifelock.com/podcast - Website for Lifelock.

Podcasts & Audio

  • Let's Talk FPL - The podcast series where this episode is featured.

Other Resources

  • FPL (Fantasy Premier League) - The fantasy sports game discussed throughout the podcast.
  • African Cup of Nations (AFCON) - Tournament impacting player availability.
  • Carabao Cup - Football competition impacting player schedules.
  • Game Week (GW) - A term used to denote a specific round of fixtures in FPL.
  • Clean Sheet - A defensive statistic in football where a team concedes no goals.
  • Def Cons - Defensive contributions, a metric in FPL.
  • Price Rises - Increases in player values within the FPL game.
  • Red Arrows - A term used in FPL to describe a decrease in overall rank.
  • Wildcard - An FPL chip that allows unlimited transfers for one gameweek.
  • Free Hit - An FPL chip that allows unlimited transfers for one gameweek, resetting afterwards.
  • Triple Arsenal Defense - A strategy involving selecting three defensive players from Arsenal.
  • 4-4-2 - A common football formation.
  • 3-5-2 - A common football formation.
  • 3-4-3 - A common football formation.

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