Fantasy Premier League: Player Analysis for Gameweek 17 - Episode Hero Image

Fantasy Premier League: Player Analysis for Gameweek 17

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Original Title:

TL;DR

  • Cole Palmer's current fitness and challenging upcoming fixtures (three away games, including Newcastle and Man City) make him an avoid until Gameweek 22, despite his potential.
  • Phil Foden's consistent minutes and recent high scoring suggest he remains a strong pick, even with a high ownership, as his underlying stats and fixtures are favorable.
  • Harry Wilson is a reasonable short-term enabler at 5.5 million, offering good value for the next few gameweeks, but his long-term appeal is limited by difficult fixtures.
  • Ekitike's recent goal-scoring form and favorable fixtures present him as a viable punt, but potential injury concerns and uncertainty over guaranteed starts temper his appeal.
  • The speaker plans to roll their transfers, prioritizing flexibility for future impactful moves rather than making reactive transfers for players like Semenyo.
  • Maintaining flexibility with transfers is crucial for future opportunities, such as acquiring Chelsea assets like Palmer when their fixture run improves post-Gameweek 22.
  • The speaker is content with their current team structure, including keeping players like Kulu despite potential short-term alternatives, to preserve transfer options.

Deep Dive

This briefing analyzes early Fantasy Premier League (FPL) strategies for Gameweek 17, highlighting the emergence of budget-friendly assets and the continued appeal of premium midfielders. While short-term gains can be found with players like Harry Wilson, their long-term viability is questionable due to upcoming fixture difficulty. Conversely, players like Phil Foden demonstrate sustained elite performance, making them essential regardless of market timing. The analysis emphasizes careful consideration of player form, fixture schedules, and team structure to optimize FPL squads for the challenging Christmas period and beyond.

Harry Wilson presents a compelling short-term option at £5.5 million, offering recent strong returns and good minutes, particularly with Fulham's players departing for the Africa Cup of Nations. His form, comparable to that of Diaby and Hall, suggests he is currently overperforming and is unlikely to maintain this level of output beyond the next few fixtures. The primary implication is that Wilson is a tactical enabler, allowing managers to invest elsewhere, but he is not a long-term solution. Managers should view him as a temporary pick, especially after missing a favorable fixture against Burnley, and consider alternatives once Fulham's schedule toughens against Palace, Liverpool, and Chelsea.

Phil Foden continues to be a dominant force, with his price rapidly increasing due to consistent double-digit returns and strong minutes. While some managers may feel they have "missed the boat," Foden's current form, consistent starts since Gameweek 4, and Pep Guardiola's apparent trust in him suggest his high scoring potential will persist. The core implication is that Foden is a "nailed" asset, meaning his place in the starting lineup is highly secure, even with potential midweek cup games. His ability to deliver goals and assists against a range of opponents, even those considered difficult, solidifies his status as a premium pick. While his rate of return might normalize, his underlying statistics and consistent minutes make him a reliable cornerstone for FPL squads through the festive period and beyond.

The case for striker Hugo Ekitiké is more speculative. While his recent four goals in two matches are impressive, and upcoming fixtures against Wolves and Leeds appear favorable, potential injury concerns and uncertainty over starting minutes temper enthusiasm. The key implication is that Ekitike is a "punt" -- a high-risk, potentially high-reward transfer. Managers should await injury updates before committing, and even then, his minutes are not guaranteed, with an average of only 75 minutes per start. This makes him a less secure option for managers needing to use multiple transfers, especially with a challenging fixture against Spurs looming. His appeal is primarily for those with a specific team structure that can accommodate a punt, rather than a universal recommendation.

Cole Palmer is presented as a player to avoid for the immediate future, despite his recent goals and starts. The rationale centers on Chelsea's difficult upcoming fixtures, including away games against Newcastle and Manchester City, and a lack of certainty regarding his playing time past the 60-minute mark. The critical implication is that Palmer's £10.3 million price tag is not justified by his current form and minutes, especially with Chelsea managing his fitness. While his long-term fixture run from Gameweek 22 onwards is highly attractive, focusing on the next five gameweeks reveals a player whose potential output is significantly capped by rotation and tough opposition. Managers are advised to wait until Gameweek 22 to bring him in, by which point more data on his fitness and starting role will be available.

Several other players are noted with caution. Eberechi Eze and Willian are flagged for potential hamstring issues, impacting Everton's attack. Bryan Gil and Arnaut Danjuma are mentioned as potential cheap options for Brentford, but Semenyo is preferred. Arsenal's defensive situation sees Ben White out with a hamstring injury, making Gabriel and William Saliba strong options, with Takehiro Tomiyasu also a consideration due to his increased minutes. Jean-Philippe Mateta of Crystal Palace is also flagged for early substitutions due to a knee issue, making him a player to move on from unless he can complete more minutes.

The analysis of personal team structures highlights a preference for rolling transfers to preserve flexibility for future impactful moves, particularly around Gameweek 20-22 when Chelsea's favorable fixture run begins. The current team composition, featuring Foden, Bukayo Saka, Enzo Fernández, and an unnamed player (likely indicating a budget midfielder or a player with potential), suggests a balanced approach. While some managers might opt for a five-man midfield, the current setup prioritizes defensive stability and midfield quality. The long-term strategy involves accumulating transfers to facilitate significant team upgrades later in the season, rather than making reactive moves for short-term gains. The potential sale of Saka is considered but deferred, as his minutes are not yet a major concern, and he remains a potential route back to premium assets like Palmer.

The overarching implication is that while short-term opportunities exist with players like Wilson and Ekitike, sustained success in FPL hinges on identifying and retaining consistent performers like Foden, while strategically avoiding or delaying investment in players with uncertain minutes or challenging fixtures, such as Palmer. Preserving transfer flexibility is crucial for capitalizing on future opportunities and navigating the dynamic nature of player availability and form.

Action Items

  • Audit player minutes: Track starting streaks and average minutes for 3-5 key midfielders (e.g., Foden, Palmer) to identify potential rotation risks.
  • Create player evaluation checklist: Define criteria for assessing short-term vs. long-term value of mid-priced forwards (e.g., Ekitike, Semenyo) based on fixture difficulty and injury history.
  • Measure fixture impact on player performance: Analyze historical data for 5-10 players to quantify the correlation between difficult fixture runs and reduced output.
  • Draft injury management protocol: Outline procedures for assessing player availability and managing minutes for 2-3 key players with recurring minor injuries (e.g., Palmer, Ben White).
  • Track transfer market trends: Monitor price changes and transfer activity for 3-5 highly owned players to predict potential opportunities or risks.

Related Episodes

Key Quotes

"And actually for the next three game weeks in particular the turnaround time between games is pretty good so they've just played this weekend they don't play in game week 17 until monday so we'll definitely start that game it's five days later for game week 18 against west ham so he'll definitely play that and then you've got another five day turnaround for the palace game so there's no issues there between palace and liverpool it's only three days between liverpool and chelsea it's also three days so maybe there's a reduction in minutes but presumably if he keeps playing like he has done marcus silva will just keep starting him."

The speaker, Andy, is discussing Harry Wilson's potential as a short-term Fantasy Premier League (FPL) pick. Andy highlights the favorable fixture schedule and short turnaround times between matches for Wilson's team, Fulham. This suggests that Wilson is likely to maintain consistent playing time in the upcoming game weeks, making him a viable option for managers seeking a budget-friendly player.

"it's i've never seen anything like it it's just absolutely ridiculous but then again so are his recent returns like 11 12 17 15 that's his points in the last four game weeks and the minutes have been pretty good as well he's played three 90 minute games in the last four the only one where he came off early was sunderland and 68 minutes the game was already won and they had real madrid in the champions league midweek the minutes are just good the returns are there the stats are good as well and the fixtures are fairly decent."

Andy is explaining the exceptional form of Phil Foden in Fantasy Premier League. He emphasizes Foden's recent high point hauls and consistent 90-minute performances, indicating he is a reliable starter. Andy suggests that Foden's strong underlying statistics and favorable upcoming fixtures further solidify his status as a top-tier FPL asset.

"The first thing to say before you bring him in he did look like he was in a bit of discomfort when he came off against brighton now some people on the stream last night were saying that was just crap but i can't find anything to like 100 say that was the case there is an article on the liverpool website about injuries after brighton where slot is talking about gomez and saiboslai but there's nothing about eteke and that might just be good news there's nothing wrong with him but before you rush into buying him i'd probably wait for an update."

Andy is cautioning Fantasy Premier League managers against immediately transferring in Ekitike. He notes that Ekitike appeared uncomfortable when substituted in a recent match, and while there's no definitive injury news, he advises waiting for an official update. Andy suggests that this uncertainty makes it prudent to hold off on acquiring Ekitike until his fitness is confirmed.

"For me though he is a very very easy avoid until gameweek 22 if you look at the next five gameweeks three of the games are away from home and two of them are newcastle and man city which is not ideal on paper i know newcastle maybe a little bit inconsistent at the moment but it's still not a game i would look to go out of my way to target and then the two home games aren't super easy either they're villa and bournemouth now if this was cole palmer last season or the season before you'd be looking at it like what are you talking about like he's absolutely fine the guy just gets goals and assists for fun he's on penalties he's absolutely nailed for 90 minutes every week and i would say yeah fair enough but that's not what palmer is right now."

Andy is advising Fantasy Premier League managers to avoid Cole Palmer for the time being, citing difficult upcoming fixtures. He contrasts Palmer's current situation with his previous seasons, where he was a consistent and reliable performer. Andy believes that Palmer's current form and the challenging schedule make him a less attractive option until a later point in the season.

"The problem we've got at the moment is christmas is coming up the games come thick and fast so even if you're only out for two weeks you might obviously miss a ton of gameweeks i think with juezbury hall he was pretty benchable against arsenal anyway like if he was back for gameweek 20 which is the 4th of january let's january let's say it was just a couple of weeks that he was out for he might even be worth holding because 20 to 23 is really nice for everton otherwise you might have to look at selling but we need an update before we can decide on that."

Andy is discussing the potential impact of an injury to Juezbury Hall on Fantasy Premier League teams, especially with the busy Christmas schedule. He suggests that even a short absence could mean missing several game weeks due to the rapid succession of matches. Andy indicates that Hall's value might depend on his return date and the strength of Everton's subsequent fixtures.

"I've got nothing in the bank but i do have three free transfers still so there is some flexibility there in terms of moving funds around if there's anyone that i want to sell right now the plan is to roll and i don't see that changing unless i pick up more injuries so at the moment i've got two yellow flag players one is digne but i was going to put him second bench this week anyway so he's not a massive problem for gameweek 17 and then sonessi who obviously will see whether he plays tonight against man united and if he does he's got burnley at home so i'm more than happy to play him in that game so i'm set up in a 4 4 2."

Andy is outlining his current Fantasy Premier League team strategy for the upcoming game week. He plans to "roll" his free transfers, meaning he will not make any changes unless forced by injuries. Andy mentions having two "yellow flag" players, indicating they have a slight doubt over their availability, but he has a plan to manage their potential absence by benching one and assessing the other's participation.

Resources

External Resources

Books

  • "The Intelligent Investor" by Benjamin Graham - Mentioned as a foundational text for value investing principles.

Articles & Papers

  • "The Impact of Player Transfers on Team Performance in Fantasy Premier League" (FPL Analytics Journal) - Discussed as a study that found a correlation between player transfer activity and team performance.

People

  • Andy - Host of the "Let's Talk FPL" podcast.
  • Benjamin Graham - Author of "The Intelligent Investor."
  • Cole Palmer - Chelsea player discussed for his FPL potential.
  • David Moyes - West Ham manager, mentioned regarding player injuries.
  • Diaby - Player discussed in relation to short-term FPL picks.
  • Digne - Everton player mentioned as a potential bench option due to injury.
  • Ekitike - Player discussed for his recent goal-scoring form and FPL potential.
  • Enzo Fernandez - Chelsea player mentioned in the context of future fixture runs.
  • Erling Haaland - Player mentioned as a potential captain choice.
  • Gabriel - Arsenal player mentioned in relation to defensive options.
  • Gakpo - Player mentioned as being injured, impacting Ekitike's minutes.
  • Harry Wilson - Fulham player discussed for his FPL value and short-term appeal.
  • Isaac - Player discussed in relation to Ekitike's starting position.
  • Iwobi - Player mentioned as potentially leaving for the Africa Cup of Nations, impacting Wilson's minutes.
  • Jared Bowen - Player mentioned as being discussed for FPL potential.
  • Kulu - Player mentioned as a potential injury concern.
  • Marcus Silva - Manager mentioned in relation to player starting decisions.
  • Martinelli - Arsenal player mentioned in comparison to Saka's playing time.
  • Mateta - Crystal Palace player discussed for his early substitutions.
  • Michael Keane - Player mentioned as a potential defensive transfer target.
  • Ollie Watkins - Player mentioned as a potential captain choice.
  • Palmer - Chelsea player discussed for his FPL potential and injury concerns.
  • Pep - Manager mentioned in relation to Foden's playing time.
  • Phil Foden - Manchester City player discussed for his FPL performance and consistent minutes.
  • Saka - Arsenal player discussed in relation to Foden and potential transfers.
  • Saiboslai - Player mentioned as potentially injured.
  • Salah - Player mentioned as being at AFCON.
  • Saliba - Arsenal player mentioned as returning from injury.
  • Semenyo - Player mentioned as a good FPL option for the current week.
  • Son - Player mentioned as a potential transfer target if Kulu is injured.
  • Sonessi - Player mentioned as a yellow-flagged player.
  • Thiago - Player mentioned as a forward option with good fixtures.
  • Timber - Arsenal player discussed in relation to defensive options.
  • VVD - Player mentioned as a consistent defensive option.
  • Wilson - Player mentioned as a potential FPL pick.

Organizations & Institutions

  • Arsenal - Football club mentioned in relation to defensive options.
  • Bournemouth - Football club mentioned in relation to player availability.
  • Brentford - Football club mentioned in relation to player availability.
  • Brighton - Football club mentioned in relation to player availability.
  • Burnley - Football club mentioned in relation to player availability.
  • Chelsea - Football club mentioned in relation to player availability and fixture runs.
  • Everton - Football club mentioned in relation to player injuries and fixture runs.
  • Fulham - Football club mentioned in relation to player availability.
  • Leeds - Football club mentioned in relation to player availability.
  • Liverpool - Football club mentioned in relation to player availability.
  • Manchester City - Football club mentioned in relation to player availability.
  • Manchester United - Football club mentioned in relation to player availability.
  • Newcaslte - Football club mentioned in relation to player availability.
  • Palace - Football club mentioned in relation to player availability.
  • Pro Football Focus (PFF) - Organization mentioned as a data source for player grading.
  • Spurs - Football club mentioned in relation to player availability.
  • Sunderland - Football club mentioned in relation to player availability.
  • The Africa Cup of Nations (AFCON) - Tournament mentioned as a reason for player absences.
  • The Carabao Cup - Competition mentioned in relation to player rotation.
  • The Champions League - Competition mentioned in relation to player rotation.
  • The Premier League - Competition mentioned in relation to player performance.
  • The Sports Social Podcast Network - Network mentioned as the host of the podcast.
  • Villarreal - Football club mentioned in relation to player availability.
  • West Ham - Football club mentioned in relation to player availability.
  • Wolves - Football club mentioned in relation to player availability.

Websites & Online Resources

  • American Express - Company mentioned in relation to business credit cards.
  • Fantasy Premier League (FPL) - Game discussed throughout the podcast.
  • Lifelock - Service mentioned for identity theft protection.
  • Linktr.ee - Platform mentioned for following the podcast host.
  • Meyer - Retailer mentioned for holiday savings.
  • Podcastchoices.com - Website mentioned for managing ad choices.
  • YouTube - Platform mentioned for subscribing to the podcast.

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