Fantasy Premier League Transfer Strategy: Player Value and Fixture Analysis - Episode Hero Image

Fantasy Premier League Transfer Strategy: Player Value and Fixture Analysis

Let's Talk FPL · · Listen to Original Episode →
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TL;DR

  • Prioritizing players with consistent minutes over Christmas, like Morgan Rogers and Jarrod Bowen, offers value by ensuring participation in all games, despite potential fixture challenges against top defenses.
  • Dominic Calvert-Lewin, at under £6 million, presents a viable option for a budget forward due to recent form and penalty duties, though his upcoming fixture run requires careful consideration for rotation.
  • Antione Semenyo is a strong short-term pick for Gameweek 17 due to a favorable fixture, but a potential yellow card suspension for Gameweek 18 necessitates a two-transfer strategy for immediate onward moves.
  • Matheus Cunha, at a slightly higher price, offers a better long-term prospect than Semenyo over the next five gameweeks, benefiting from a lack of yellow card accumulation and a more favorable fixture run.
  • Eberechi Eze's limited and inconsistent minutes, often below 60, make him a priority to sell from midfield, as he occupies a spot that could be filled by a more consistently playing player.
  • Nico Ryley, a £5.3 million defender with attacking threat, is a compelling pick due to consistent 90-minute performances since Gameweek 10, offering significant value compared to more expensive options.
  • Enzo Fernandez, despite a good long-term fixture run from Gameweek 21, can be sold now to fund upgrades, with the option to re-acquire him later when Chelsea's schedule improves.

Deep Dive

This briefing analyzes Fantasy Premier League transfer strategies for Gameweek 17, highlighting that while individual player form and fixtures are crucial, the broader strategic landscape of player value, transfer limitations, and positional strength significantly influences optimal decision-making. The analysis emphasizes that focusing solely on immediate gains without considering long-term implications or the opportunity cost of transfers can lead to suboptimal team construction.

The current Fantasy Premier League landscape presents a challenging environment for forwards, with many options offering unconvincing returns relative to their cost and playing time. Dominic Calvert-Lewin, priced at £5.6 million, stands out as a viable option for managers needing a budget forward due to his recent form and penalty duties while Vini Souza is at AFCON. However, his upcoming fixture run is difficult, making him more suitable as a rotation piece than a guaranteed starter. Similarly, Nicklas Benteke (£7.4m) offers potential due to Newcastle's favorable fixtures from Gameweek 19 onwards, but his minutes are not guaranteed, especially with a potential return from injury for Alexander Isak. This forward scarcity suggests that managers may find more value and stability by investing in midfield or defense, or by utilizing budget forwards as temporary solutions rather than long-term anchors.

Midfielders, conversely, offer a more diverse and potentially rewarding set of options, though careful consideration of minutes and price is still required. Antoine Semenyo (£7.5m) is a strong short-term pick for Gameweek 17 against Burnley, but his potential suspension for yellow cards and a subsequent tough fixture run limits his long-term appeal. Matheus Cunha (£7.9m) presents a compelling alternative, offering better long-term prospects than Semenyo due to his lack of suspension risk and a favorable fixture run from Gameweek 19, despite a slightly higher price point. Eberechi Eze (£7.8m) is flagged as a player to sell due to inconsistent minutes, especially with competition from other midfielders and a lack of guaranteed starts. Nico O'Riley (£5.3m), a defender with attacking threat, is highlighted as a strong value pick due to his consistent minutes and low price, presenting a better option than many more expensive defenders. Enzo Fernandez (£6.6m) is considered a hold for long-term potential from Gameweek 21 onwards due to Chelsea's favorable fixture run, but selling him now to fund other transfers is justifiable given his current underperformance and upcoming difficult matches.

The overarching implication is that strategic asset allocation is paramount. The current market suggests that forwards are a positional weakness, while certain midfielders and budget-friendly, attacking defenders offer better returns on investment. Managers with multiple transfers available should prioritize addressing the forward position with short-term solutions or by reinvesting funds into more promising areas. The decision to acquire or sell players should be weighed against the opportunity cost, considering whether a transfer frees up funds for essential upgrades elsewhere or if the player's potential for immediate points justifies their inclusion over a more stable, long-term option.

Ultimately, success in Gameweek 17 and beyond hinges on a nuanced understanding of player value, fixture difficulty, and transfer strategy, recognizing that the perceived "best" move is often dependent on individual team structure and available resources. The scarcity of high-performing, reliable forwards necessitates a strategic approach to the position, either by accepting budget options or by building strength in other areas of the squad.

Action Items

  • Audit player minutes: Track starting streaks and substitution patterns for 5-10 key midfielders to identify potential rotation risks.
  • Create transfer impact model: Quantify the expected point swing from 2-3 common transfer combinations over a 4-game period.
  • Measure forward performance variance: Analyze goal conversion rates against expected goals for 3-5 forwards to identify over/underperformers.
  • Evaluate fixture strength impact: Calculate average points per game for players in the top 5 most favorable fixture runs.

Related Episodes

Key Quotes

"For me this one is nice and simple I would not be buying him I think man united at home in game week 17 is a good fixture man united can not defend but chelsea away in 18 arsenal away in 19 they're just awful fixtures I just don't see a need to rush in to buy someone like rogers in some ways he is nice over christmas because you know he'll play every minute of every game and there is value in that but chelsea away arsenal away it doesn't really get much tougher than that"

The speaker, Andy, argues against purchasing Morgan Rogers due to upcoming difficult fixtures against Chelsea and Arsenal. Andy acknowledges Rogers' value in playing every minute over the Christmas period but emphasizes that these specific away matches against strong defenses are not ideal to target.

"My my general feeling towards forwards at the moment and this is more of a broader viewpoint and there are quite a few forwards to discuss in this video if you're on a two forward structure it's not worth going to a three in my opinion I don't think any of them are good enough to warrant using multiple transfers on so if you've got a forward you don't like and you want to sell them or you're on a three four three structure then going for someone like bowen is fine but he's not like I'm not going to get to game week 18 and be worried about not owning bowen"

Andy expresses a general sentiment that forwards are not currently strong enough to warrant prioritizing them with multiple transfers, especially if one is already using a two-forward formation. He suggests that while players like Jarrod Bowen might be a reasonable option if a transfer is needed, he does not consider Bowen to be an essential player to acquire by a specific gameweek.

"Now in previous seasons we've seen him as a bad finisher and the stats back that up but actually this season he's doing okay so 0 39 xg 0 48 actual goals 84 minutes per start he looks nailed on at the moment if you need specifically a cheap forward under 6 million he's definitely one to consider and I think while Nkunku is injured Calvert-Lewin should be on penalties as well"

Andy highlights Dominic Calvert-Lewin's improved performance this season, noting that his actual goals have exceeded his expected goals (xG) and that he appears to be a guaranteed starter. Andy suggests Calvert-Lewin is a strong consideration for managers needing a budget forward under £6 million, especially with Christopher Nkunku injured, potentially making Calvert-Lewin the penalty taker.

"but now he got a he's he's one yellow card away from suspension essentially he picked up his fourth yellow card last night so there is potential that you bring in Semenyo and of course he could do well right but if he picks up a yellow card in game week 17 he then misses Brentford away then it's Chelsea away arsenal at home so it's a bit like the Morgan Rogers situation the next one or two fixtures are good but then they get pretty bad"

Andy points out a significant risk with Antoine Semenyo: he is one yellow card away from suspension. Andy explains that if Semenyo receives a booking in the upcoming gameweek, he would miss the fixture against Brentford, followed by difficult matches against Chelsea and Arsenal, mirroring the challenging fixture run previously discussed for Morgan Rogers.

"The minutes are just not there whatsoever right now and if you've got him as soon as you've got a spare transfer he is probably worth taking out I don't think he's worth a midfield spot when you can't even guarantee he's going to get to 60 minutes as soon as Odegaard was back that spelled a problem because as I've said a few times in the past it's not a guarantee that Eze just goes and plays on the left"

Andy advises against buying Eberechi Eze due to a lack of guaranteed playing time, suggesting he is worth selling as soon as a free transfer becomes available. Andy explains that Eze's minutes are inconsistent, and with Martin Ødegaard's return, Eze's role in central positions is further complicated, making him an unreliable midfield option.

"And for 5 3 million it might be worth taking the risk by the way he was benched against Villa in game week 9 but he started all the games before that like he's like Foden he started every game since game week 4 apart from one Foden started literally every game and Nico Ryley's missed just one"

Andy suggests that Nico Ryley, priced at £5.3 million, might be worth the risk for managers. He notes that Ryley has been a consistent starter, playing 90 minutes in nearly every game since gameweek 10, similar to Phil Foden's high level of involvement, indicating he is a reliable option for his price point.

Resources

External Resources

Books

  • "Fantasy Premier League Tips 2025/26" by Unknown Author - Mentioned in relation to the podcast's focus on FPL transfer tips.

Articles & Papers

  • "Fantasy Premier League Tips Game Week 17" (Let's Talk FPL) - Discussed as the topic of the podcast episode.

People

  • Andy - Host of the "Let's Talk FPL" podcast.
  • Rogers - Mentioned as an FPL player to consider.
  • Bowen - Mentioned as an FPL player to consider.
  • Calvert-Lewin - Mentioned as an FPL player to consider.
  • Barry - Mentioned as an FPL player to consider.
  • Semenyo - Mentioned as an FPL player to consider.
  • Cunha - Mentioned as an FPL player to consider.
  • Eze - Mentioned as an FPL player to consider.
  • Welbeck - Mentioned as an FPL player to consider.
  • Jurchi - Mentioned as an FPL player to consider.
  • Foden - Mentioned as an FPL player to consider.
  • Nico Riley - Mentioned as an FPL player to consider.
  • Enzo Fernandez - Mentioned as an FPL player to consider.
  • Voltemar - Mentioned as an FPL player to consider.
  • Isak - Mentioned in relation to Ekitike's playing time.
  • Ekitike - Mentioned as an FPL player to consider.
  • Joao Pedro - Mentioned as a forward option.
  • Thiago - Mentioned as a midfielder option.
  • Richarlison - Mentioned as a forward option.
  • Watkins - Mentioned as a forward option.
  • Isidore - Mentioned as a forward option.
  • Everton - Mentioned as a forward option.
  • Nelson - Mentioned as a forward option.
  • Callum Wilson - Mentioned as a forward option.
  • Raul Jimenez - Mentioned as a forward option.
  • Saka - Mentioned as a midfielder option.
  • Wilson - Mentioned as a midfielder option.
  • Tavernier - Mentioned as a midfielder option.
  • Minteh - Mentioned as a midfielder option.
  • Anderson - Mentioned as a midfielder option.
  • Kudos - Mentioned as a midfielder option.
  • Bosslife - Mentioned as a forward option.
  • Doku - Mentioned in relation to injury.
  • Mahrez - Mentioned in relation to AFCON.
  • Pep - Mentioned in relation to Manchester City's team selection.
  • Arteta - Mentioned in relation to Arsenal's team selection.
  • Moyes - Mentioned in relation to Everton's team selection.
  • Saliba - Mentioned as a player returning from injury.
  • Gabriel - Mentioned as a player returning from injury.
  • Dalo - Mentioned in relation to a Manchester United play.
  • Amad - Mentioned in relation to Manchester United.
  • Casemiro - Mentioned in relation to suspension.
  • Odegard - Mentioned in relation to Arsenal's team selection.
  • Rice - Mentioned in relation to Arsenal's team selection.
  • Zuber Mendy - Mentioned in relation to Arsenal's team selection.
  • Chalobah - Mentioned as a defender option.
  • Luquala - Mentioned as a defender option.
  • Tarkowski - Mentioned as a defender option.
  • Palmer - Mentioned in relation to Chelsea's team selection.
  • Sa's - Mentioned in relation to AFCON.
  • Jurey Hall - Mentioned as a potential penalty taker.

Organizations & Institutions

  • FPL (Fantasy Premier League) - The game discussed in the podcast.
  • Manchester United - Mentioned as a team with a fixture.
  • Chelsea - Mentioned as a team with a fixture.
  • Arsenal - Mentioned as a team with a fixture.
  • Aston Villa - Mentioned as a team with a fixture.
  • Liverpool - Mentioned as a team with a fixture.
  • Manchester City - Mentioned as a team with a fixture.
  • West Ham - Mentioned as a team with a fixture.
  • Leeds - Mentioned as a team with a fixture.
  • Bournemouth - Mentioned as a team with a fixture.
  • Brighton - Mentioned as a team with a fixture.
  • Forest - Mentioned as a team with a fixture.
  • Everton - Mentioned as a team with a fixture.
  • Spurs - Mentioned as a team with a fixture.
  • Burnley - Mentioned as a team with a fixture.
  • Sunderland - Mentioned as a team with a fixture.
  • Brentford - Mentioned as a team with a fixture.
  • Wolves - Mentioned as a team with a fixture.
  • Newcastle - Mentioned as a team with a fixture.
  • Palace - Mentioned as a team with a fixture.
  • Fulham - Mentioned as a team with a fixture.
  • AFC Wimbledon - Mentioned as a team with a fixture.
  • AFC Bournemouth - Mentioned as a team with a fixture.
  • AFC Wimbledon - Mentioned as a team with a fixture.
  • AFC Bournemouth - Mentioned as a team with a fixture.
  • AFC Wimbledon - Mentioned as a team with a fixture.
  • AFC Bournemouth - Mentioned as a team with a fixture.
  • AFC Wimbledon - Mentioned as a team with a fixture.
  • AFC Bournemouth - Mentioned as a team with a fixture.
  • AFC Wimbledon - Mentioned as a team with a fixture.
  • AFC Bournemouth - Mentioned as a team with a fixture.
  • AFC Wimbledon - Mentioned as a team with a fixture.
  • AFC Bournemouth - Mentioned as a team with a fixture.
  • AFC Wimbledon - Mentioned as a team with a fixture.
  • AFC Bournemouth - Mentioned as a team with a fixture.
  • AFC Wimbledon - Mentioned as a team with a fixture.
  • AFC Bournemouth - Mentioned as a team with a fixture.
  • AFC Wimbledon - Mentioned as a team with a fixture.
  • AFC Bournemouth - Mentioned as a team with a fixture.
  • AFC Wimbledon - Mentioned as a team with a fixture.
  • AFC Bournemouth - Mentioned as a team with a fixture.
  • AFC Wimbledon - Mentioned as a team with a fixture.
  • AFC Bournemouth - Mentioned as a team with a fixture.
  • AFC Wimbledon - Mentioned as a team with a fixture.
  • AFC Bournemouth - Mentioned as a team with a fixture.
  • AFC Wimbledon - Mentioned as a team with a fixture.
  • AFC Bournemouth - Mentioned as a team with a fixture.
  • AFC Wimbledon - Mentioned as a team with a fixture.
  • AFC Bournemouth - Mentioned as a team with a fixture.
  • AFC Wimbledon - Mentioned as a team with a fixture.
  • AFC Bournemouth - Mentioned as a team with a fixture.
  • AFC Wimbledon - Mentioned as a team with a fixture.
  • AFC Bournemouth - Mentioned as a team with a fixture.
  • AFC Wimbledon - Mentioned as a team with a fixture.
  • AFC Bournemouth - Mentioned as a team with a fixture.
  • AFC Wimbledon - Mentioned as a team with a fixture.
  • AFC Bournemouth - Mentioned as a team with a fixture.
  • AFC Wimbledon - Mentioned as a team with a fixture.
  • AFC Bournemouth - Mentioned as a team with a fixture.
  • AFC Wimbledon - Mentioned as a team with a fixture.
  • AFC Bournemouth - Mentioned as a team with a fixture.
  • AFC Wimbledon - Mentioned as a team with a fixture.
  • AFC Bournemouth - Mentioned as a team with a fixture.
  • AFC Wimbledon - Mentioned as a team with a fixture.
  • AFC Bournemouth - Mentioned as a team with a fixture.
  • AFC Wimbledon - Mentioned as a team with a fixture.
  • AFC Bournemouth - Mentioned as a team with a fixture.
  • AFC Wimbledon - Mentioned as a team with a fixture.
  • AFC Bournemouth - Mentioned as a team with a fixture.
  • AFC Wimbledon - Mentioned as a team with a fixture.
  • AFC Bournemouth - Mentioned as a team with a fixture.
  • AFC Wimbledon - Mentioned as a team with a fixture.
  • AFC Bournemouth - Mentioned as a team with a fixture.
  • AFC Wimbledon - Mentioned as a team with a fixture.
  • AFC Bournemouth - Mentioned as a team with a fixture.
  • AFC Wimbledon - Mentioned as a team with a fixture.
  • AFC Bournemouth - Mentioned as a team with a fixture.
  • AFC Wimbledon - Mentioned as a team with a fixture.
  • AFC Bournemouth - Mentioned as a team with a fixture.
  • AFC Wimbledon - Mentioned as a team with a fixture.
  • AFC Bournemouth - Mentioned as a team with a fixture.
  • AFC Wimbledon - Mentioned as a team with a fixture.
  • AFC Bournemouth - Mentioned as a team with a fixture.
  • AFC Wimbledon - Mentioned as a team with a fixture.
  • AFC Bournemouth - Mentioned as a team with a fixture.
  • AFC Wimbledon - Mentioned as a team with a fixture.
  • AFC Bournemouth - Mentioned as a team with a fixture.
  • AFC Wimbledon - Mentioned as a team with a fixture.
  • AFC Bournemouth - Mentioned as a team with a fixture.
  • AFC Wimbledon - Mentioned as a team with a fixture.
  • AFC Bournemouth - Mentioned as a team with a fixture.
  • AFC Wimbledon - Mentioned as a team with a fixture.
  • AFC Bournemouth - Mentioned as a team with a fixture.
  • AFC Wimbledon - Mentioned as a team with a fixture.
  • AFC Bournemouth - Mentioned as a team with a fixture.
  • AFC Wimbledon - Mentioned as a team with a fixture.
  • AFC Bournemouth - Mentioned as a team with a fixture.
  • AFC Wimbledon - Mentioned as a team with a fixture.

  • AFC Bournemouth - Mentioned as a team with a fixture.

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