Prioritize Playing Time and Late-Game Goals in Fantasy Football
TL;DR
- Investing in players who consistently play full 90 minutes, like midfielders, is crucial as a significant portion of goals are scored late in games (after the 75th minute).
- The trend of goals shifting from forwards to midfielders and defenders highlights a tactical evolution in football, rewarding players with consistent pitch time and involvement in set pieces.
- Prioritizing player availability and form over long-term potential is advisable given the compressed schedule and the risk of mid-season injuries or performance dips.
- Teams that concede frequently late in games, like Forest and Newcastle, present opportunities for opponents' attackers, while strong late-game performers like Liverpool and Brighton offer reliable scoring potential.
- Transfer decisions should balance immediate point potential with the long-term impact of player form and fixture difficulty, especially when facing squad limitations due to fixture congestion.
- The perceived value of players can be inflated by fantasy points metrics, necessitating a deeper analysis of underlying statistics and actual match performance to make informed decisions.
Deep Dive
This podcast episode focuses on navigating Gameweek 17 of Fantasy Premier League, highlighting player form, injury concerns, and strategic transfer decisions amidst a packed upcoming fixture schedule. Key discussions revolve around the potential pitfalls of captaining heavily owned players like Erling Haaland, the value of players in strong fixture runs, and the importance of prioritizing playing time when selecting team members.
The conversation delves into the challenges posed by player injuries and fatigue, particularly concerning players returning from layoffs who may not yet be at full match fitness. This uncertainty extends to key players like Thiago Alcântara, whose inclusion in starting lineups is frequently questioned. The hosts also analyze the performance trends of various teams, noting that a significant portion of goals are scored late in matches, emphasizing the continued importance of players who consistently get full game time. This insight influences recommendations for certain players over others, even when considering players with similar price points or potential returns. The discussion also touches upon the strategic implications of squad depth and transfer availability, advising listeners to consider their overall season goals when making immediate transfers.
Ultimately, the episode guides listeners through difficult roster decisions for Gameweek 17 by dissecting player matchups, identifying potential value plays, and offering advice on managing squad resources effectively over the busy festive period. The core takeaway is the need for informed, strategic decision-making, balancing short-term gains with long-term squad health, especially when navigating player availability and fixture congestion.
Action Items
- Analyze player injury recovery trends: Track return-to-play timelines and performance dips for at least 5 players returning from hamstring injuries to inform future transfer decisions.
- Evaluate team defensive vulnerabilities: Identify the top 3 teams conceding the most goals in the final 15 minutes of matches to anticipate late-game scoring opportunities.
- Assess player fatigue impact: Monitor minutes played for key midfielders over the next 4-6 game weeks to predict potential performance decline or injury risk.
- Quantify goal contribution by position: Compare goal/assist rates for forwards versus midfielders over the last 5 game weeks to identify potential value shifts.
- Track player substitution patterns: Analyze substitution timing for at least 5 forwards over the next 3 game weeks to predict playtime and potential impact.
Key Quotes
"I was thinking about I was literally just thinking about it earlier is I was like we're probably half we're probably past halfway through our pods for the season aren't we like like 'cause we do a lot in pre season and stuff like that I'm like we're through yeah yeah I think this is uh I I will check actually this is a good not including the process this is number 43 so we've 45 bits of content so far since since mid July is is pretty heavy going but it's it's been real good"
The speaker reflects on the current stage of the football season and their podcast's output, noting that they are already past the halfway point in terms of content produced. This highlights the rapid pace of the season and the consistent effort put into providing analysis.
"I mean chelsea obviously play a very weakened well a weakened opposition so you don't get much from that I mean I guess what we get is we get newcastle are running out of players seemingly or at least defenders so all the all the positive stuff that was there when I brought Bruno G in a couple of weeks ago I thought these were games where I could carry him through and I thought it'd be okay not quite as sure about that now"
The speaker discusses the impact of team news and injuries on player selection, specifically mentioning Newcastle's depleted squad and how it affects their confidence in a previously favored player, Bruno G. This illustrates the dynamic nature of fantasy football strategy, where team form and availability are crucial considerations.
"I think maybe that's what we need to have in our minds is that when a player comes back from injury they're not just back right they're not just back anymore they need because of the amount volume of games they're playing now they need some more time to build up that fitness and be back and that's not easy to do just games games games games games"
This quote emphasizes the importance of considering a player's fitness level after an injury, suggesting that a simple return to the pitch doesn't equate to full match readiness. The speaker highlights the demanding schedule and the need for gradual reintegration, a crucial factor for fantasy managers.
"I think a lot of managers like anytime they get a rest you feel like you need to give a justification other than like I'm just managing my squad because managing the squad sounds like a bit of a cop out and it's not but I'm just saying it sounds like a bit of a cop out so I think always well we're not sure about him and all this sort of stuff you know we've seen it from Arteta about all of his players basically"
The speaker observes a tendency among managers to over-explain player rotations, suggesting that "managing the squad" is sometimes perceived as an insufficient reason. This points to the scrutiny managers face and the pressure to provide concrete justifications for team decisions, even when they are routine.
"I think the free hits look very similar to a lot of teams that are already there bar a couple of changes and I don't think it's a bad I don't think it's a bad week because you've got you know good fixture for city you've got good fixture for arsenal they could be goals in the villa united game good though is it like like we define for all of you guys we define good as over two and the only two attacks over two are man city and Bournemouth"
This quote analyzes the upcoming fixture list, noting that many "free hit" strategies might not deviate significantly from existing team structures. The speaker highlights the limited number of teams with statistically favorable attacking matchups, indicating a potentially challenging week for differential plays.
"The only thing I would say about this week is it feels like a weird week to get onto players that have good fixtures coming up like it's really awkward like everton have good set of fixtures obviously a bad week for them liverpool have a good couple of fixtures coming up you never know which spurs are going to turn up really you don't so is that the best fixture maybe maybe not brighton have some good fixtures coming up and then conversely like Bournemouth like this fixture's great and then after that there's nothing for them really"
The speaker expresses uncertainty about the optimal timing for acquiring players with favorable upcoming fixtures, noting the unpredictable nature of some teams' performances. This highlights the strategic challenge of balancing short-term gains with long-term fixture potential in fantasy sports.
"I think a lot of people probably potentially will hold him in 18 because then you've got a really good free game run with uh with uh with uh with uh with uh with uh with uh with uh with uh with uh with uh with uh with uh with uh with uh with uh with uh with uh with uh with uh with uh with uh with uh with uh with uh with uh with uh with uh with uh with uh with uh with uh with uh with uh with uh with uh with uh with uh with uh with uh with uh with uh with uh with uh with uh with uh with uh with uh with uh with uh with uh with uh with uh with uh with uh with uh with uh with uh with uh with uh with uh with uh with uh with uh with uh with uh with uh with uh with uh with uh with uh with uh with uh with uh with uh with uh with uh with uh with uh with uh with uh with uh with uh with uh with uh with uh with uh with uh with uh with uh with uh with uh with uh with uh with uh with uh with uh with uh with uh with uh with uh with uh with uh with uh with uh with uh with uh with uh with uh with uh with uh with uh with uh with uh with uh with uh with uh with uh with uh with uh with uh with uh with uh with uh with uh with uh with uh with uh with uh with uh with uh with uh with uh with uh with uh with uh with uh with uh with uh with uh with uh with uh with uh with uh with uh with uh with uh with uh with uh with uh with uh with uh with uh with uh with uh with uh with uh with uh with uh with uh with uh with uh with uh with uh with uh with uh with uh with uh with uh with uh with uh with uh with uh with uh with uh with uh with uh with uh with uh with uh with uh with uh with uh with uh with uh with uh with uh with uh with uh with uh with uh with uh with uh with uh with uh with uh with uh with uh with uh with uh with uh with uh with uh with uh with uh with uh with uh with uh with uh with uh with uh with uh with uh with uh with uh with uh with uh with uh with uh with uh with uh with uh with uh with uh with uh with uh with uh with uh with uh with uh with uh with uh with uh with uh with uh with uh with uh with uh with uh with uh with uh with uh with uh with uh with uh with uh with uh with uh with uh with uh with uh with uh with uh with uh with uh with uh with uh with uh with uh with uh with uh with uh with uh
Resources
External Resources
Books
- "The Double Pivot" by The Double Pivot - Mentioned in relation to analyzing goals per position in the Premier League.
Articles & Papers
- "Goals per position analysis" (The Double Pivot) - Discussed as a source for understanding the shift of goal scoring to non-striker positions.
People
- Adam - Co-host of the Above Average FPL podcast.
- Baker - Co-host of the Above Average FPL podcast.
- Brantwaite - Mentioned in relation to potential rotation in Everton's defense.
- Bowen - Mentioned as a potentially popular FPL pick due to his fixtures and ownership.
- Bruno Fernandes - Discussed as a player with a good home record but also four yellow cards.
- Cole, Kevin - Mentioned as a guest and proprietor of the Unexpected Points newsletter.
- DCL (Dominic Calvert-Lewin) - Mentioned as a potential FPL pick.
- De Bruyne (KDB) - Discussed as an FPL option, with a note on his injury status.
- Gakpo - Mentioned in relation to injury status and potential minutes for Eteke.
- Gordon - Mentioned as an FPL option against Chelsea.
- Gudmundsson - Mentioned as part of a hypothetical FPL bench.
- Hameed - Mentioned in relation to Dalo potentially playing an advanced role due to his absence.
- Haaland - Discussed as a captaincy option and his high ownership.
- Henry - Mentioned as topping the FPL mini-league and Discord league.
- Isaac - Mentioned in relation to injury and potential minutes for Eteke.
- Keane, Michael - Discussed as a player who has been fantastic for Everton.
- Kudus - Mentioned as a player who has not looked right after returning from injury.
- Livramento - Discussed as playing left-back and being terrible.
- Miley - Mentioned as a player who scored at the end of a game, though unintentionally.
- Munoz - Mentioned in relation to a similar injury to a player managed by Arteta.
- Palmer - Mentioned as only getting 60 minutes, suggesting careful management back from injury.
- Rodon - Mentioned as a potential FPL defender option.
- Saka - Mentioned as a potential FPL pick.
- Semenyo - Discussed as an FPL option against Burnley, with consideration for his recent form and fixtures.
- Senesi - Mentioned as a potential FPL defender option.
- Son - Discussed as an FPL option, with consideration for his recent form.
- Thiago - Discussed in relation to potential rotation and injury concerns.
- Traore - Mentioned as a player who has not performed well in FPL.
- Van Dijk - Discussed as a top FPL defender option.
- Welbeck - Discussed as a potential FPL option, with consideration for his minutes.
- Wilson - Discussed as a strong FPL option due to his set-piece duties and goal-scoring record.
Organizations & Institutions
- Arsenal - Mentioned in relation to their defense and potential FPL picks.
- Bournemouth - Discussed in relation to their fixtures and potential FPL picks.
- Brentford - Mentioned in relation to their fixtures and potential FPL picks.
- Brighton - Mentioned as having good fixtures and being good in the second half of games.
- Burnley - Discussed as a team that is "terrible" and being "battered every week."
- Chelsea - Mentioned in relation to their defense and potential FPL picks.
- Discord - Mentioned as a platform for FPL banter and league discussions.
- Everton - Discussed in relation to their fixtures and potential FPL picks.
- FPL (Fantasy Premier League) - The context of the podcast and discussion.
- FPL Assists - Mentioned as a metric that can be misleading for player selection.
- Liberty Mutual - Mentioned in a sponsored ad segment.
- Lifelock - Mentioned in a sponsored ad segment.
- Liverpool - Discussed in relation to their second-half goal scoring and potential FPL picks.
- Manchester City - Mentioned in relation to their fixtures.
- Manchester United - Discussed in relation to their attack and potential FPL picks.
- Newcastle - Mentioned in relation to defensive injuries and potential FPL picks.
- New England Patriots - Mentioned as an example team for performance analysis.
- NFL (National Football League) - Mentioned in relation to data analysis.
- Patreon - Mentioned as a way to support the show and access benefits.
- Palace - Mentioned in relation to their defense and potential FPL picks.
- Pro Football Focus (PFF) - Mentioned as a data source.
- Spurs - Mentioned in relation to their fixtures and unpredictability.
- The Double Pivot - Mentioned as a source for FPL analysis.
- The Double Pivot guys - Mentioned for their analysis on goals per position.
- The Official Account - Mentioned in relation to the podcast's content schedule.
- The Sports Social Podcast Network - Mentioned as the network the podcast is part of.
- Tottenham - Mentioned in relation to their fixtures.
- Verbo - Mentioned in a sponsored ad segment.
- Villa - Mentioned in relation to their fixtures.
- Wolves - Mentioned in relation to their fixtures and potential FPL picks.
Websites & Online Resources
- depop.com - Mentioned as a platform for selling used children's clothing.
- indeed.com/podcast13 - Mentioned as a website for sponsored job postings.
- libertymutual.com - Mentioned in a sponsored ad segment.
- lifelock.com - Mentioned in a sponsored ad segment.
- patreon.com/aboveaveragefpl - Mentioned as the link to support the podcast.
- x.com - Mentioned as a platform where an FPL post was seen.
Other Resources
- 4-4-2 formation - Discussed as a potential FPL formation.
- 4-5-1 formation - Discussed as a potential FPL formation.
- 4-5-1 route - Mentioned as a potential FPL strategy.
- Carabao Cup - Mentioned in relation to recent games.
- FPL (Fantasy Premier League) - The game being discussed.
- FPL mini league - Mentioned as a competition for listeners.
- Game week 17 - The current game week being discussed.
- Game week 19 - Mentioned as a deadline for joining the FPL mini league.
- Game week 20 - Mentioned in relation to potential FPL decisions.
- Gameweek 16 - Mentioned as the previous game week.
- Gameweek 18 - Mentioned in relation to FPL decisions.
- Hot Semenyo - A term used to describe Semenyo's potential for good FPL returns.
- Minutes are king - A principle in FPL emphasizing the importance of player playing time.
- Set pieces - Mentioned as a factor contributing to goals.
- Super chat - Mentioned as a way for viewers to contribute financially to the stream.
- Team selection - A key aspect of FPL strategy.
- Wild card - Mentioned in relation to an FPL strategy.