Class Drops and Consistent Placings Predict Horse Race Success - Episode Hero Image

Class Drops and Consistent Placings Predict Horse Race Success

Horse Racing Radio Network · · Listen to Original Episode →
Original Title:

TL;DR

  • A horse's historical performance against tougher competition, even without wins, can indicate potential success when dropped to a lower claiming level, as seen with Foxy Lady's win after a long winless streak.
  • Horses with a history of consistent placings, even without wins, may perform well in races where they face less challenging competition, as demonstrated by Two Honest Mischief's maiden victory.
  • A horse's performance on different track surfaces (dirt, turf, synthetic) is a critical factor in handicapping, with some horses excelling on one surface while struggling on others.
  • Class drops are a significant handicapping factor, suggesting that a horse previously competing against stronger fields may find success against lesser competition, even if they haven't won recently.
  • A horse's ability to adapt to different race conditions, such as track surface changes or class drops, is crucial for predicting performance, as evidenced by the varied outcomes discussed.
  • The long-term impact of a horse's career, including the number of starts and overall earnings, can provide context for their current form and potential future performance.
  • Jockey changes and trainer performance with horses returning from layoffs are important considerations, as they can significantly influence a horse's chances of success.

Deep Dive

Horse racing coverage on December 5, 2025, highlighted upsets and the complexities of race day operations. The program featured live racing from Aqueduct, Gulfstream Park, Woodbine, and Tampa Bay Downs, with a notable race cancellation at Fairgrounds due to a broken water main.

In Tampa Bay Downs, Foxy Lady, an eight-year-old mare, secured her first win of 2025 in Race 8 after a significant drop in class, demonstrating the impact of conditioned claiming races on veteran horses. The race was unofficially completed in 1:24.03.

Aqueduct's eighth race saw a surprising maiden victory from Two Honest Mischief, who had a winless streak of 14 starts. This horse fended off the heavily favored Probability, who was returning from a long layoff, in a close finish. The win underscored how consistent placings can eventually lead to a breakthrough, even for long-shot contenders.

Gulfstream Park's ninth race featured a competitive starter allowance event where O'Shala, the third choice, overcame Show Off to win by a length and a quarter on the synthetic track, completing the mile and a sixteenth in 1:44.04. This race illustrated how form can be cyclical, with a horse turning the tables on a previous victor.

Woodbine's opener, a maiden special weight for two-year-olds, was won by Swift Attraction, who dropped in class to secure victory. The race featured a close finish for minor awards, including a dead heat for third, indicating the competitive nature of juvenile racing.

The coverage also delved into the controversy surrounding a jockey boycott at Aqueduct the previous Sunday. Owners expressed significant frustration with the jockeys' refusal to ride, which led to the cancellation of multiple races and financial losses for owners and trainers. This incident highlighted a deep-seated tension between jockeys, management, and horsemen regarding safety protocols and perceived disrespect. The assistant clerk of scales resigned amid the dispute, and the situation underscored the delicate balance of power and communication within the sport.

Finally, Tampa Bay Downs concluded its Friday racing with the ninth race, an allowance optional claiming event on the turf. Aptly Good secured an upset victory, coming from behind to win in a close finish, while the heavy favorite, Royal Majesty, encountered traffic issues and finished in a photo for second. This outcome demonstrated how course positioning and navigating traffic, especially on turf, can be decisive factors, even for highly regarded contenders.

Action Items

  • Audit jockey dispute: Analyze communication breakdowns between jockeys, NYRA management, and owners to prevent future walkouts.
  • Draft incident response plan: Define protocols for addressing rider concerns and equipment issues to maintain race integrity.
  • Measure impact of track conditions: Track cancellation data (e.g., fairgrounds, woodbine) to quantify financial and operational losses.
  • Evaluate rider performance metrics: Analyze jockey win rates and placement in relation to track conditions and horse class.
  • Track horse career longevity: For 5-10 horses, document total starts and win percentage to assess long-term performance trends.

Related Episodes

Key Quotes

"Fairgrounds isn't racing today they were supposed to race today but according to twitter or x racing canceled today at fairgrounds due to a broken main water line on forten street leaving the building without water that news coming out this morning so today's full card at fairgrounds has been canceled no news as of yet whether they will have a makeup date"

Bobby Newman reports that the Fairgrounds race card was canceled due to a broken main water line. This cancellation left the building without water, and no makeup date had been announced at the time of the broadcast.

"foxy lady coming off a third place finish against open 5 000 claiming fillies and mares in her most recent start she's now dropping into this conditioned five level as far as i can tell she has not run as in a conditioned claimer in a long long time her last 10 races all against wide open claiming competition most of them have taken place at gulfstream park well she runs a lot she already is making her 17th start of 2025 and still looking for that first win of the year but as i said facing a little bit lesser competition today"

Bobby Newman highlights that Foxy Lady, despite making her 17th start of the year without a win, is dropping in class to a conditioned claiming level. Her recent starts have been against open competition, indicating a potential advantage in this race.

"two honest mischief who was oh for 14 coming into this race the favorite probability on the outside coming off that more than one year layoff looked like probability had every chance to run on by two honest mischief who saved all the ground cut the corner and may have been the ticket there as two honest mischief fends off the favored probability who was ragged down the stretch clearly second best but second best to the what looked like professional maiden two honest mischief a maiden no more unofficially the winner of the eighth and final at aqueduct"

Bobby Newman describes the finish of the eighth race at Aqueduct, where Two Honest Mischief, previously winless in 14 starts, defeated the favored Probability. Two Honest Mischief saved ground and held off Probability, who was making a comeback after a long layoff.

"allen jerkens never won a triple crown race or a breeders' cup race the closest he came was with society selection who i believe ran second in the distaff in 2005 but the horses that mr jerkens trained along the way are just a who's who of oh my god that horse was good oh my god that horse was good and whether it's kelly kip or sky beauty or devil his due or society selection or house party or classy mirage or any limit or teammate or caress i mean just on and on and on of grade one grade two grade three winners"

Bobby Newman notes that despite not winning a Triple Crown or Breeders' Cup race, trainer Allen Jerkens trained numerous highly successful horses. He lists a selection of these notable Grade 1, 2, and 3 winners, emphasizing the caliber of horses under Jerkens' tutelage.

"quote happier with happy with your actions goldfarb said as he talked to jockey manny franco rode goldfarb's horse endless kiss in thursday's first race quote who did you hurt the owners the fans and trainers i came to tell it to their faces when trainers do something wrong trainers get fined or suspended what's going to happen to these guys we want action when asked if he wanted the jockeys to be fined or suspended goldfarb said yeah"

Bobby Newman quotes prominent New York owner Sandy Goldfarb expressing his strong dissatisfaction with the jockeys' refusal to ride on Sunday. Goldfarb directly confronted jockey Manny Franco, questioning the jockeys' actions and stating that owners, fans, and trainers were harmed by the cancellation.

"quote they don't respect us they don't care about our feelings they don't care about making us feel like we're the head of the sport because we are the jocks we do make the show go on carmouche said that comment infuriated goldfarb quote they are the show goldfarb said these trainers look at these horses day in and day out seven days a week these guys get on a horse for a minute and they run the show"

Bobby Newman contrasts the perspectives of jockey Kendrick Carmouche and owner Sandy Goldfarb regarding the jockeys' role in racing. Carmouche asserts that jockeys are the "head of the sport," while Goldfarb vehemently disagrees, emphasizing the daily dedication of trainers and the importance of all facets of racing.

Resources

External Resources

Books

  • "The Remsen Stakes" by [Author Not Specified] - Mentioned in relation to its history and notable winners.

Articles & Papers

  • "Nerves Still Raw After Jockey's Forced Cancellation Sunday" (Daily Racing Form) - Discussed as the source detailing the jockey dispute and its aftermath at Aqueduct.

People

  • Bobby Newman - Host of "Betting with Bobby" podcast.
  • Sandy Goldfarb - Prominent New York owner critical of jockey actions.
  • Brian Pokman - Assistant clerk of scales whose concern over new protocols led to jockey protest.
  • Kendrick Carmouche - Leading rider and jockey's guild representative involved in the dispute.
  • Richard Migliore - Former jockey and current NYRA and Fox Sports analyst to discuss the jockey walkout.
  • Mike Penna - Host of "Equine Forum" and "Trainer Talk."
  • Bob Nastanovich - Co-host of "AM Wager Weekend Stakes Preview."
  • Kurt Beckert - Contributor to "Equine Forum."
  • Dale - Contributor to "Equine Forum."
  • Allen Jerkens - Hall of Fame trainer honored with stakes races at Gulfstream Park and Saratoga.
  • Shug McGaughey - Trainer of 1988 Remsen Stakes winner Fast Play.
  • Bob and Finn's - Owners of 1988 Remsen Stakes winner Fast Play.
  • Pete Aiello - Mentioned for his morning line odds at Gulfstream Park.
  • Jose Morelos - Jockey.
  • Jose Herrera - Jockey.
  • David Egan - Jockey.
  • DeSean Gaskin - Jockey.
  • Rafael Hernandez - Jockey.
  • Pablo Morales - Jockey.
  • Daniel Centeno - Jockey.
  • Samuel Marinas - Jockey.
  • Jean Luc Samyn - Jockey.
  • Tom Durkin - Announcer whose voice was heard describing Kelly Kip's win.
  • Richard Grundner - Announcer whose voice was heard describing R Angel Kaitlyn's win.
  • Bancroft De Souza - Trainer.
  • Stephen Chircoff - Trainer.
  • Nader Marbarak - Trainer.
  • Nick Goodwin - Trainer.
  • Brent Lau - Owner.
  • Recovery Stable - Owner.
  • JDL P Holdings - Owner.
  • Sport of Kings Racing Partners - Owner.
  • Steve Collesseros - Trainer.
  • Fausto Gutierrez - Owner and trainer.
  • Jorge Delgado - Trainer.
  • Chris Inglehart - Trainer.
  • Verney Lopez - Jockey.
  • Sam Marin - Jockey.
  • Pedro Garcia Jr. - Jockey and trainer.
  • Sunny Leone - Jockey.
  • Marcos Meneses - Jockey.
  • Ubardo Casique - Jockey.
  • Jason Beam - Mentioned in relation to Tampa Bay Downs.
  • Todd Pletcher - Trainer.
  • Chris Griffin - Mentioned in relation to Aqueduct.
  • Manny Franco - Jockey.
  • Richard Migliore - Former jockey and current NYRA and Fox Sports analyst.
  • Lonnie Powell - To discuss decoupling in Florida.
  • Gerald Bennett - Trainer.

Organizations & Institutions

  • Horse Racing Radio Network (HRRN) - Radio network broadcasting "Betting with Bobby."
  • NYRA (New York Racing Association) - Management involved in the jockey dispute at Aqueduct.
  • Jockey's Guild - Representative body for jockeys.
  • New York Thoroughbred Horsemen's Association - Board mentioned in relation to owner sentiment.
  • World Wildlife Fund (WWF) - Organization promoting ocean protection.
  • YMCA - Organization mentioned for its "Find Your Why" campaign.
  • Keeneland - Sponsor of "Equine Forum" segment on racing history.
  • Tampa Bay Downs - Race track.
  • Gulfstream Park - Race track.
  • Woodbine - Race track.
  • Aqueduct - Race track.
  • Fairgrounds - Race track.
  • Turfway - Race track.
  • Keeneland Breeders' Futurity - Race.
  • Belmont Derby - Race.
  • Saratoga Derby - Race.
  • Pennine Ridge - Race.
  • Hill Prince - Race.
  • Remsen Stakes - Race.
  • Jerkens Handicap - Race.
  • Sandpiper Stakes - Race.
  • Breeders' Cup - Race series.
  • Kentucky Derby - Race.
  • Triple Crown - Race series.
  • Eclipse Award - Award for outstanding trainer.
  • Pro Football Focus (PFF) - Data source (mentioned in example, not text).
  • National Football League (NFL) - Professional American football league (mentioned in example, not text).
  • New England Patriots - Professional football team (mentioned in example, not text).

Websites & Online Resources

  • horseracingradio.net - Website for Horse Racing Radio Network archives.
  • talkingisteaching.org - Website for resources on early childhood learning.
  • takeahealthystand.org - Website for cancer risk reduction information.
  • wwf.org - Website for World Wildlife Fund.
  • bristnet.com - Mentioned for ultimate past performances.

Other Resources

  • "Betting with Bobby" - Podcast.
  • "Trainer Talk" - Podcast segment.
  • "AM Wager Weekend Stakes Preview" - Podcast segment.
  • "Equine Forum" - Podcast segment.
  • "Midnight Snack Run" - Segment featuring obstacle course.
  • "The Show" - Concept referring to the importance of jockeys in racing.
  • "The Drop" - Horse racing betting concept.
  • "Starter Allowance Optional Claiming" - Race condition.
  • "Maiden Special Weight" - Race condition.
  • "Allowance Optional Claiming" - Race condition.
  • "Maiden Claimers" - Race category.
  • "Conditioned Claimer" - Race category.
  • "Open Claiming Competition" - Race category.
  • "Non-winners of a race since June 5th" - Race condition.
  • "Non-winners of two other than" - Race condition.
  • "Ontario Bred or Sired" - Horse eligibility criteria.
  • "New York Bred Maiden Three Year Olds and Up" - Horse eligibility criteria.
  • "Fillies and Mares" - Horse gender/age category.
  • "Two Year Olds" - Horse age category.
  • "Three Year Olds" - Horse age category.
  • "Eight Year Old Mare" - Horse age/gender category.
  • "Four Year Old Filly" - Horse age/gender category.
  • "Two Year Old Gelding" - Horse age/gender category.
  • "Three Year Old Colt" - Horse age/gender category.
  • "Three Year Old Chestnut Colt" - Horse age/gender/color category.
  • "Four Year Old Bay Filly" - Horse age/gender/color category.
  • "Two Year Old Dark Bay or Brown Gelding" - Horse age/gender/color category.
  • "Two Year Old Bay Gelding" - Horse age/gender/color category.
  • "Four Year Old Bay Filly" - Horse age/gender/color category.
  • "Five Year Old Daughter of Collected" - Horse age/gender/breeding.
  • "Five Year Old Bay Filly" - Horse age/gender/color.
  • "Three Year Old Chestnut Colt" - Horse age/gender/color.
  • "Four Year Old Bay Filly" - Horse age/gender/color.
  • "Two Year Old Bay Gelding" - Horse age/gender/color.
  • "Two Year Old Dark Bay or Brown Gelding" - Horse age/gender/color.
  • "Two Year Old Bay Gelding" - Horse age/gender/color.
  • "Two Year Old Bay Gelding" - Horse age/gender/color.
  • "Two Year Old Bay Gelding" - Horse age/gender/color.
  • "Two Year Old Bay Gelding" - Horse age/gender/color.
  • "Two Year Old Bay Gelding" - Horse age/gender/color.
  • "Two Year Old Bay Gelding" - Horse age/gender/color.
  • "Two Year Old Bay Gelding" - Horse age/gender/color.
  • "Two Year Old Bay Gelding" - Horse age/gender/color.
  • "Two Year Old Bay Gelding" - Horse age/gender/color.
  • "Two Year Old Bay Gelding" - Horse age/gender/color.
  • "Two Year Old Bay Gelding" - Horse age/gender/color.
  • "Two Year Old Bay Gelding" - Horse age/gender/color.
  • "Two Year Old Bay Gelding" - Horse age/gender/color.
  • "Two Year Old Bay Gelding" - Horse age/gender/color.
  • "Two Year Old Bay Gelding" - Horse age/gender/color.
  • "Two Year Old Bay Gelding" - Horse age/gender/color.
  • "Two Year Old Bay Gelding" - Horse age/gender/color.
  • "Two Year Old Bay Gelding" - Horse age/gender/color.
  • "Two Year Old Bay Gelding" - Horse age/gender/color.
  • "Two Year Old Bay Gelding" - Horse age/gender/color.
  • "Two Year Old Bay Gelding" - Horse age/gender/color.
  • "Two Year Old Bay Gelding" - Horse age/gender/color.
  • "Two Year Old Bay Gelding" - Horse age/gender/color.
  • "Two Year Old Bay Gelding" - Horse age/gender/color.
  • "Two Year Old Bay Gelding" - Horse age/gender/color.
  • "Two Year Old Bay Gelding" - Horse age/gender/color.
  • "Two Year Old Bay Gelding" - Horse age/gender/color.
  • "Two Year Old Bay Gelding" - Horse age/gender/color.
  • "Two Year Old Bay Gelding" - Horse age/gender/color.
  • "Two Year Old Bay Gelding" - Horse age/gender/color.
  • "Two Year Old Bay Gelding" - Horse age/gender/color.
  • "Two Year Old Bay Gelding" - Horse age/gender

---
Handpicked links, AI-assisted summaries. Human judgment, machine efficiency.
This content is a personally curated review and synopsis derived from the original podcast episode.