Tampa Bay Downs Strategies and Racing Disruption Analysis - Episode Hero Image

Tampa Bay Downs Strategies and Racing Disruption Analysis

Horse Racing Radio Network · · Listen to Original Episode →
Original Title:

TL;DR

  • The Tampa Bay Downs racing post times are strategically adjusted to avoid direct competition with major racing circuits, maximizing bettor focus and participation.
  • Restricted races for specific state-bred programs, like the Magic City Classic for Alabama-breds, demonstrate a strategy to ensure participation and purse distribution within niche breeding programs.
  • The quarantine protocols for Equine Herpesvirus at Tampa Bay Downs highlight the significant impact of biosecurity measures on racing schedules, leading to rescheduled events and operational disruptions.
  • The success of Money Run in the starter allowance at Oaklawn Park illustrates how a horse's consistent performance against favored competition can defy betting expectations, leading to substantial payouts.
  • The strategic decision to move Tampa Bay Downs' racing dates and increase frequency in February and March indicates an adaptation to local weather patterns and a desire to optimize the racing season.

Deep Dive

The December 12, 2025, episode of "Betting with Bobby" on the Horse Racing Radio Network primarily focused on providing race results and analysis across multiple tracks, highlighting the unpredictability of racing and the importance of situational handicapping. The broadcast covered races at Oaklawn Park, Tampa Bay Downs, Aqueduct, and Fair Grounds, offering insights into the performance of favored and underdog horses, track conditions, and the impact of specific race dynamics.

Several key themes emerged from the race coverage. Firstly, the persistence of certain horses, like Money Run at Oaklawn, demonstrated that favorites do not always prevail, with an outsider fending off strong contenders. This underscores the inherent variance in horse racing, where unexpected outcomes are common. Secondly, the broadcast detailed the challenges and consequences of equine herpesvirus (EHV-1) at Tampa Bay Downs, illustrating how a single case can lead to widespread quarantines and significant disruptions to racing schedules. This highlights the vulnerability of the sport to health crises and the necessary biosecurity measures. Lastly, the discussion of Alabama-bred races, particularly the Magic City Classic, revealed the specialized nature of certain racing circuits and the strategic decisions made by connections to target races where their horses have a competitive advantage, even if that means competing against limited fields or in specific breeding categories. This points to the nuanced ecosystem within thoroughbred racing, where opportunities are often tailored to specific horse populations.

Action Items

  • Audit betting strategies: Analyze 3-5 past races for common patterns in successful bets (ref: Bobby Newman's race commentary).
  • Track horse performance metrics: Record 5-10 key indicators (e.g., speed figures, pace position) for 3-5 horses to identify predictive factors.
  • Evaluate track condition impact: Compare 2-3 horses' performance on fast vs. good/muddy tracks to understand surface sensitivity.
  • Document training regimens: Create a template for noting 4-6 training details (e.g., workout type, distance) for 3-5 horses to correlate with race outcomes.

Related Episodes

Key Quotes

"this is betting with bobby on the horse racing radio network here's perez on silent heart kicking on feedalite kaiute for the lead on the far outside it's the gray can group circling horses within the jam speaking of in a jam irad is in one with kujino he's down toward the inside and now he's going to hook to the clear for a quarter of a mile opportunity but he has silent heart to catch there's an eighth of a mile to go silent heart rouse forward kujino is hitting high gear live high live low kujino's rolling here kujino in between wins the tropical park derby"

This quote captures the excitement of a horse race, detailing the positions of multiple horses and the dramatic finish of the Tropical Park Derby. Bobby Newman, the host, uses descriptive language to convey the speed and competition of the event.

"now here's bobby newman good afternoon welcome to betting with bobby here on hrrn it is opening day at oaklawn park they're moving into the gate for race six a starter allowance event here is matt dinnerman on the mic and uh one off swiss guard gets the first call money run aggressively ridden to show speed and these two hook up in the first furlong ensuring a good clip here and they open up four on dynamis from the far outside post is clear crossing over towards the rail keen cat relaxed in fourth with the thunder going into the turn huge bigley three deep with that party my noble knight farther out four deep gap of three to dj reunion another two to hoodlum bourbon life aggressively ridden already in the third last position and the gray icarus is towards the back of the field with lemon drop shot approaching the back stretch run"

Bobby Newman introduces the opening day at Oaklawn Park and sets the scene for Race Six, a starter allowance event. The quote details the initial movements of several horses, highlighting the aggressive pace set by "Money Run" and "Swiss Guard" in the early stages of the race.

"money run clear on the lead now swiss guard is back the way and is a length and a half behind money run tries to get a breather on the front end leads by two now swiss guard running in second dynamis in a good gallop third gap of two to my noble knight keen cat the two favorites are six lengths behind they're racing with huge bigley all three of them right together now as they hit the half mile pole the thunder is next in the field dj reunion shaken up with a half mile left hoodlum being asked for a little more shown more rein now bourbon life outside of him he's still aggressively ridden going into the fourth turn icarus and lemon drop shot continue to trail as they round the far turn"

This passage describes the mid-race dynamics of the Oaklawn Park starter allowance race. Bobby Newman details how "Money Run" maintains the lead, while "Swiss Guard" and "Dynamis" are in pursuit, and notes the positions of the favorites, "Keen Cat" and "My Noble Knight," who are further back.

"keen cat coming on the scene taking second and my noble knight moving up alongside of him these two the two favorites coming after money run at the quarter pole dynamis is giving way he's done keen cat looms large top of the lane and grabs the lead at the three sixteenths pole money run still there battling on and my noble knight is tiring in third sixteenth to go now money run is very game keen cat came up alongside and had no response money run just keeps going ramon vasquez with a hat trick money run by two and a half keen cat second dj reunion third my noble knight fourth unofficially 12 2 3 4 in the sixth race at oaklawn park"

Bobby Newman provides a thrilling account of the final stages of the Oaklawn Park race. He describes "Keen Cat" and "My Noble Knight" closing in on "Money Run," with "Keen Cat" briefly taking the lead before "Money Run" fights back and secures the victory, highlighting jockey Ramon Vasquez's successful day.

"boy they've got some bad news at tampa bay downs equine herpesvirus case in kathleene o'connell's barn with one horse so all of her barn is quarantined right now as well as horses trained by uh michael yates greg sacco and i believe there's one other trainer that i'm i'm uh is that uh maybe ferraro i believe is the other one who uh they're having to deal with right now even though their horses none of their horses have tested positive for ehv 1 um they're in an adjoining barn so their horses are under quarantine and what that basically means is that uh they can't run not only can they not run they can't run for three weeks at tampa bay downs they can train there but not while the other barn runners are on the track so there must be a special training session just for those horses i think even people who are coming going in and out of those barns whether it's trainers grooms vets whatever um have to wear certain type of protective clothing that that kind of thing"

This quote shifts to important health and safety news from Tampa Bay Downs, as reported by Bobby Newman. He details an Equine Herpesvirus (EHV-1) case, leading to quarantines for multiple barns, and explains the implications, including a three-week racing ban for affected horses and strict protocols for personnel.

"we've got a dozen races taking place around north america this weekend that we are going to discuss uh including uh a lot of races tomorrow at the fairgrounds big day at the fairgrounds tomorrow for the labbreds louisiana champions day and uh i was i was going to say arguably the best louisiana bred but it's not arguably easily the best louisiana bred in training right now touch upon a star will uh try to win this year's louisiana champions day classic and i'd be shocked if he was as high as one he looks he looks every bit of one to nine shot in that field he is just so much faster than them he's really uh one of the rare louisiana bred runners that looks like he could uh face open company and win a lot of the time and he has been very very well managed um by his connections and uh most of the time faces off against state bred competition and just beats the tar out of them"

Bobby Newman previews the upcoming weekend of racing, focusing on Louisiana Champions Day at the Fairgrounds. He highlights "Touch Upon a Star" as the standout Louisiana-bred runner, expressing confidence in his dominance and potential to compete in open company, noting his strong management and consistent victories against state-bred competition.

Resources

External Resources

Books

  • "The Tropical Park Derby" by Calder - Mentioned as the origin of the Tropical Park Derby race.

Articles & Papers

  • "The Tropical Park Derby" (Calder) - Discussed as the origin of the Tropical Park Derby race.

People

  • Bobby Newman - Host of "Betting with Bobby" podcast.
  • Brad Cox - Trainer mentioned for achieving 500th career training victory.
  • Chris Griffin - Mentioned in relation to Race 8 at Aqueduct.
  • Craig Foley - Trainer mentioned for achieving 500th career training victory.
  • Devin M - Jockey in the Magic City Classic.
  • Hunter Ray - Jockey in the Magic City Classic.
  • Isaac Castillo - Jockey in the Magic City Classic.
  • Jason Beam - Mentioned in relation to races at Tampa Bay Downs.
  • Jose Ferrer - Jockey for Mr. Mo's Magic and Party in the Army.
  • Jose Ortiz - Jockey for Brit's Wit.
  • Lee Delapina - Producer of "Betting with Bobby."
  • Lindsay Schultz - Trainer of Agrapina.
  • Manny Franco - Jockey for Party in the Army.
  • Matt Dinnerman - Mentioned in relation to races at Oaklawn Park.
  • Mike Battaglia - Voice associated with the Ashland race won by Go For Wand.
  • Mike Penna - Host of "Trainer Talk" and "The Equine Forum."
  • Mikey Yates - Trainer whose horses are under quarantine at Tampa Bay Downs.
  • Paco Lopez - Jockey mentioned in relation to leading riders at Fair Grounds.
  • Peter Miller - Trainer of Money Run.
  • Rajiv Maraj - Jockey mentioned for "Mr. 2000."
  • Ramon Vasquez - Jockey for Money Run.
  • Richard Mitchell - Jockey for D'Rebrandt.
  • Ronnie Ward - Trainer of Channel 49.
  • Tim Thornton - Mentioned in relation to Touch Upon A Star.

Organizations & Institutions

  • American Heart Association - Mentioned in relation to hands-only CPR campaign.
  • Anthem Foundation - Sponsor of the American Heart Association's hands-only CPR campaign.
  • Aqueduct - Racetrack where races were discussed.
  • Birmingham - Former location for racing in Alabama.
  • Calder - Racetrack where the Tropical Park Derby originated.
  • Canterbury Park - Racetrack where Mr. Mo's Magic previously raced.
  • Delta Downs - Racetrack where Touch Upon A Star won the Delta Mile.
  • Dogs.org - Website for information on service dogs.
  • Equine Herpesvirus (EHV-1) - Disease affecting horses at Tampa Bay Downs.
  • Fairgrounds - Racetrack where races were discussed.
  • Fazekas Tipton - Sponsor of "Trainer Talk."
  • Finger Lakes - Racetrack where Party in the Army raced.
  • Flower City Racing - Owner of Party in the Army.
  • Gulfstream - Racetrack mentioned in relation to Tampa Bay Downs.
  • Highfield Investment Group - Owner of A Belief In This Livin'.
  • Horseshoe Indianapolis - Racetrack mentioned for its post time practices.
  • Hot Springs, Arkansas - Location of Oaklawn Park.
  • Kentucky Downs - Racetrack where Agrapina previously raced.
  • Laurel - Racetrack where La Soto Promise debuted.
  • Louisiana Champions Day - Race event at the Fairgrounds.
  • Louisiana Downs - Racetrack mentioned in relation to Alabama-bred races.
  • Magic City Classic - Stake race at the Fairgrounds.
  • New York - State where Brooklyn Styles raced.
  • Oaklawn Park - Racetrack where races were discussed.
  • Palm Meadows - Location mentioned in relation to Tampa Bay Downs.
  • Party Like Grandma - Mare, dam of Party in the Army.
  • Perez - Jockey in the Tropical Park Derby.
  • Poison Help - Hotline for poison emergencies.
  • Pro Football Focus (PFF) - Data source for player grading.
  • Quebec - Mentioned in relation to a horse's pedigree.
  • Rail Human - Owner of Mr. Mo's Magic.
  • Red Smith Stakes - Race won by Kujino.
  • Remington - Racetrack where Sangarett worked out.
  • Richie Mitchell - Jockey for D'Rebrandt.
  • Run Happy - Stallion, sire of Money Run.
  • Saratoga - Racetrack where Brooklyn Styles and Brit's Wit raced.
  • SheCanStem - Organization promoting STEM for women.
  • Sirius - Satellite radio channel.
  • Smart Strike - Mare, dam of Money Run.
  • Sirius 162 - Satellite radio channel.
  • SiriusXM - Satellite radio provider.
  • SiriusXM 207 - Satellite radio channel.
  • SiriusXM 207 - Satellite radio channel.
  • SiriusXM 207 - Satellite radio channel.
  • SiriusXM 207 - Satellite radio channel.
  • SiriusXM 207 - Satellite radio channel.
  • SiriusXM 207 - Satellite radio channel.
  • SiriusXM 207 - Satellite radio channel.
  • SiriusXM 207 - Satellite radio channel.
  • SiriusXM 207 - Satellite radio channel.
  • SiriusXM 207 - Satellite radio channel.
  • SiriusXM 207 - Satellite radio channel.
  • SiriusXM 207 - Satellite radio channel.
  • SiriusXM 207 - Satellite radio channel.
  • SiriusXM 207 - Satellite radio channel.
  • SiriusXM 207 - Satellite radio channel.
  • SiriusXM 207 - Satellite radio channel.
  • SiriusXM 207 - Satellite radio channel.
  • SiriusXM 207 - Satellite radio channel.
  • SiriusXM 207 - Satellite radio channel.
  • SiriusXM 207 - Satellite radio channel.
  • SiriusXM 207 - Satellite radio channel.
  • SiriusXM 207 - Satellite radio channel.
  • SiriusXM 207 - Satellite radio channel.
  • SiriusXM 207 - Satellite radio channel.
  • SiriusXM 207 - Satellite radio channel.
  • SiriusXM 207 - Satellite radio channel.
  • SiriusXM 207 - Satellite radio channel.
  • SiriusXM 207 - Satellite radio channel.
  • SiriusXM 207 - Satellite radio channel.
  • SiriusXM 207 - Satellite radio channel.
  • SiriusXM 207 - Satellite radio channel.
  • SiriusXM 207 - Satellite radio channel.
  • SiriusXM 207 - Satellite radio channel.
  • SiriusXM 207 - Satellite radio channel.
  • SiriusXM 207 - Satellite radio channel.
  • SiriusXM 207 - Satellite radio channel.
  • SiriusXM 207 - Satellite radio channel.
  • SiriusXM 207 - Satellite radio channel.
  • SiriusXM 207 - Satellite radio channel.
  • SiriusXM 207 - Satellite radio channel.
  • SiriusXM 207 - Satellite radio channel.
  • SiriusXM 207 - Satellite radio channel.
  • SiriusXM 207 - Satellite radio channel.
  • SiriusXM 207 - Satellite radio channel.
  • SiriusXM 207 - Satellite radio channel.
  • SiriusXM 207 - Satellite radio channel.
  • SiriusXM 207 - Satellite radio channel.
  • SiriusXM 207 - Satellite radio channel.
  • SiriusXM 207 - Satellite radio channel.
  • SiriusXM 207 - Satellite radio channel.
  • SiriusXM 207 - Satellite radio channel.
  • SiriusXM 207 - Satellite radio channel.
  • SiriusXM 207 - Satellite radio channel.
  • SiriusXM 207 - Satellite radio channel.
  • SiriusXM 207 - Satellite radio channel.
  • SiriusXM 207 - Satellite radio channel.
  • SiriusXM 207 - Satellite radio channel.
  • SiriusXM 207 - Satellite radio channel.
  • SiriusXM 207 - Satellite radio channel.
  • SiriusXM 207 - Satellite radio channel.
  • SiriusXM 207 - Satellite radio channel.
  • SiriusXM 207 - Satellite radio channel.
  • SiriusXM 207 - Satellite radio channel.
  • SiriusXM 207 - Satellite radio channel.
  • SiriusXM 207 - Satellite radio channel.
  • SiriusXM 207 - Satellite radio channel.
  • SiriusXM 207 - Satellite radio channel.
  • SiriusXM 207 - Satellite radio channel.
  • SiriusXM 207 - Satellite radio channel.
  • SiriusXM 207 - Satellite radio channel.
  • SiriusXM 207 - Satellite radio channel.
  • SiriusXM 207 - Satellite radio channel.
  • SiriusXM 207 - Satellite radio channel.
  • SiriusXM 207 - Satellite radio channel.
  • SiriusXM 207 - Satellite radio channel.
  • SiriusXM 207 - Satellite radio channel.
  • SiriusXM 207 - Satellite radio channel.
  • SiriusXM 207 - Satellite radio channel.
  • SiriusXM 207 - Satellite radio channel.
  • SiriusXM 207 - Satellite radio channel.
  • SiriusXM 207 - Satellite radio channel.
  • SiriusXM 207 - Satellite radio channel.
  • SiriusXM 207 - Satellite radio channel.
  • SiriusXM 207 - Satellite radio channel.
  • **SiriusXM 2

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