Industry Shifts and Emerging Talent in Thoroughbred Racing

Horse Racing Radio Network · January 01, 2026 · Listen to Original Episode →

Original Title: HRRN’s 1/ST Bet Racing Show – January 1, 2026

TL;DR

The decision to postpone Santa Anita's opening day and the Malibu Stakes due to foul weather front-loaded quality costs, preventing potential production incidents and ensuring horse safety.
Bob Baffert's horses, Barnes and Cornucopia, scratching from the Malibu Stakes due to injury and paddock behavior, respectively, highlights the high stakes and risk management in thoroughbred racing.
Goal Oriented's Grade 1 win in the Malibu Stakes, despite being a slight favorite, demonstrates the importance of rider booking (Joel Rosario) and pedigree in achieving career-best performances.
The introduction of new maiden conditions at major race tracks, preventing high-priced horses from competing against lower-priced ones, fosters a more equitable environment for horse development and competition.
The significant reduction in Gulfstream Park's live racing days from 180 to 120 by 2028 signals a strategic shift towards casino profitability and potentially the end of thoroughbred racing in South Florida.
The claim of Reynolds Channel for $50,000 and its subsequent win first-off-the-claim at Aqueduct underscores the effectiveness of trainer Emilio Green's strategy and the potential for immediate performance improvement.
The analysis of the Oaklawn Sports Overnight Stakes suggests that a horse's pedigree (half-brother to a Chad Brown stalwart) and trainer's form (Mark Casse's success) are critical indicators of potential success, even at a generous price.

Deep Dive

The horse racing world is facing significant shifts, marked by the economic realities impacting major racing circuits and the emergence of new talent. The recent agreement at Gulfstream Park, while framed as providing stability, signals a stark reduction in racing days, suggesting a strategic move by ownership to prioritize casino operations over thoroughbred racing. This foreshadows a challenging period for South Florida racing, potentially shifting focus to emerging hubs like Ocala, while other tracks may see increased demand for stalls.

The implications of these industry-wide changes are profound. Reduced racing days at Gulfstream Park, from 180 in 2026 down to 120 by 2028, will likely lead to a contraction of the horsemen's base in South Florida. This necessitates a strategic pivot for trainers and owners, potentially increasing competition at tracks like Fairgrounds and Oaklawn Park. The news also highlights a broader trend of tracks seeking to decouple racing from more profitable ventures, a model that has previously led to the decline of other racing disciplines and could fundamentally alter the landscape of thoroughbred racing nationally.

The racing itself showcased promising performances and the continued evolution of racing talent. At Santa Anita, Goal Oriented demonstrated significant improvement, hinting at a strong four-year-old season, while Usha achieved a career-best performance. The race for younger horses also revealed potential, with Reynolds Channel winning impressively at Aqueduct and Fantasy Performer demonstrating tenacity at Gulfstream. These individual performances, set against the backdrop of industry consolidation, underscore the resilience and competitive spirit within the sport, even as its infrastructure undergoes significant transformation.

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Key Quotes

"goal oriented takes command late and it will be goal oriented grade 1 achieved for goal oriented in the malibu midland money was second speedy wilson a solid third in front of maddicott road"

This quote highlights the dramatic finish of the Malibu Stakes, with Goal Oriented making a late surge to win. The author notes the specific placings of the other horses, providing a clear picture of the race's outcome.

"barnes the night before coming up a little bit of an injury it's come to be that he's actually now retired from racing going to stand stud starting in 2026 at hill 'n' dale cornucopia on the other hand was being saddled in the paddock but got a little rambunctious in the paddock and ended up he didn't go completely over but he kind of went back and and was on his butt and the way they are they are these days especially in california with being very very careful with the horses any horse who does that whether that they're negatively impacted or not is an automatic scratch"

This passage explains the unexpected scratches of two favored horses, Barnes and Cornucopia, from the Malibu Stakes. The author details the specific reasons for each horse's withdrawal, emphasizing the strict protocols in place for horse safety in California racing.

"Usha who won the la brea was very very nice and then of course Nicose had a very very dramatic race with his stablemate and just got the edge you know Usha beat the favorite formula rosa by a little over five lengths in the grade 1 la brea and went the seven furlongs in 1 21 and three which looks spectacular when she did it and then you see that an hour later goal oriented who only beat stablemate midland money by a length at that same seven furlong distance went 1 20 and four"

The author contrasts the performances of Usha in the La Brea Stakes and Goal Oriented in the Malibu Stakes. The quote emphasizes the impressive speed figures achieved by both horses, suggesting they both ran career-best races on the same day.

"I think they can run him wherever they think he fits um I don't think that they should be particularly scared of Journalism although of course on paper his overall form is better and he clearly stays nine furlongs or further um but you know being by Not This Time on a busy Caroline and a fleet Alex mare that's a pretty versatile pedigree um I wouldn't even be surprised to see him on grass despite being a Baffert trainee"

This quote discusses the potential future racing plans for Goal Oriented. The author expresses confidence in the horse's versatility, suggesting he could compete effectively against top horses like Journalism and even perform well on turf, despite his trainer's typical focus on dirt racing.

"what was originally a nine horse field is now down to seven with the scratches of numbers seven and eight favorite at this point drawn down on the inside is the one Reynolds channel narrowly defeated against condition claimers last time out and was claimed out of that race bob from Michelle Nevin by Amelia Green who's done pretty well with limited runners first off the claim"

This passage details the field changes for a race at Aqueduct, noting the scratches and the favorite, Reynolds Channel. The author also highlights the trainer Amelia Green's success with horses claimed from other trainers.

"what do you think in general of horses who are claimed away from guys like Chad Brown and Todd Pletcher who it seems like only drop horses in for a tag when they just don't want them anymore yeah and sometimes they're worth more than the asking price um yeah this one probably is a 50 000 racehorse but that doesn't mean that somebody like Maker you know can't eke out some improvement"

The speaker questions the strategy of claiming horses from prominent trainers like Chad Brown and Todd Pletcher. The other speaker suggests that these horses can still be valuable and show improvement under new trainers, even if they were considered less desirable by their previous connections.

Resources

External Resources

Books

"The Preakness" - Mentioned in relation to Goal Oriented's past race.

Articles & Papers

"Blood Horse News Update" (Bloodhorse.com) - Provided information on Santa Anita's racing cancellations due to weather.

People

Bob Baffert - Mentioned as having five runners entered in the Malibu and his horses scratching out of the race.
Bobby Neuman - Co-host of the show.
Bob Natanovich - Co-host of the show.
Bobby Roberts - Provided information regarding Calumet Farm's racing silks.
Brad Cox - Trainer of Lemon Zest and Full Screen.
Brendan Walsh - Trainer of Higo and Hey Evabuddy.
Brett Calhoun - Trainer of Sweet Darlin.
Chad Brown - Mentioned as a trainer from whom Interceptor was claimed and as a trainer of a "stalwart filly."
Christian Torres - Jockey for Near It Surry.
David Egan - Jockey for Fantasy Performer.
David Fox - Trainer of Charlie's Wish and She Called.
Dick Vital - Mentioned in relation to Cam Gambolatti.
Emilio Green - Owner of Reynolds Channel.
Eric Foster - Former trainer of T.C. O'Malley.
Flavien Prat - Jockey for Lemon Zest.
Francisco Arrieta - Jockey for Philly Crystal.
Jared Laberry - Jockey for Chasing Grey and Terra Bella.
James Graham - Jockey for Star Metal.
Jamie Rodriguez - Jockey for Reynolds Channel.
John Dooley - Race caller.
John Penn - Owner of Reynolds Channel.
John Velazquez - Jockey for Alpi Land.
Jose Ortiz - Jockey for Trust Fund Filly and I'm Wide Awake.
Junior Alvarado - Jockey for Nightsbridge.
Kendrick Carmouche - Jockey for Coffee Talk.
Linda Rice - Trainer of Coffee Talk.
Luis Siaz - Jockey for Near It Surry.
Manny Franco - Jockey for Interceptor and Full Screen.
Mark Casse - Trainer of Alpi Land and Near It Surry.
Mario Gutierrez - Jockey for Near It Surry.
Matt Dinnerman - Race caller.
Michelle Nevin - Former trainer of Reynolds Channel.
Mike Stidham - Trainer of Full Screen.
Mike Maker - Trainer of Interceptor.
Neil Pessin - Trainer of Star Metal.
Paco Lopez - Jockey for Leonardo.
Pete Aiello - Race caller.
Peter Eurton - Trainer of Trust Fund Filly.
Peter Miller - Trainer of Demi and Misty Muppet.
Rajiv Mirage - Jockey for Glorious Boy.
Rick Bettino - Mentioned in relation to Cam Gambolatti.
Rob Battres - Trainer of Leonardo.
Sovereignty - Mentioned as a horse that Goal Oriented might be behind.
Todd Pletcher - Mentioned as a trainer from whom Interceptor was claimed and as a trainer of Hey Evabuddy.
Wayne Potts - Trainer of Philly Crystal.
White Abarrio - Mentioned as a scratch from the Mr. Prospector Stakes.

Organizations & Institutions

Ad Council - Mentioned in public service announcements.
American Heart Association - Mentioned in relation to Hands-Only CPR.
Calumet Farm - Mentioned in relation to its racing silks and ownership of Hey Evabuddy.
Godolphin - Owner of Nightsbridge and Lemon Zest.
Horse Racing Radio Network (HRRN) - The radio network broadcasting the show.
Huntsman Mental Health Institute - Mentioned in a mental health resource announcement.
National Weather Service - Mentioned in relation to weather forecasts.
NFL (National Football League) - Mentioned in the context of a previous episode's discussion.
Pro Football Focus (PFF) - Mentioned in the context of a previous episode's discussion.
Santa Anita Park - Racing venue where the Malibu and La Brea stakes were held; racing was canceled due to weather.
US Department of Health and Human Services - Mentioned in a public service announcement.
US Forest Service - Mentioned in relation to "Discover the Forest."

Websites & Online Resources

Adoptuskids.org - Website for adoption resources.
Bloodhorse.com - Website for horse racing news.
Doihaveprediabetes.org - Website for pre-diabetes risk tests.
Donorschoose.org - Website for supporting classroom projects.
Horseracingradio.net - The website for Horse Racing Radio Network content.
Loveyourmindtoday.org - Website for mental health resources.
Mentalhealthcareworks.org - Website for caregiver support.
Nhtsa.gov/therightseat - Website for child car seat safety information.
Va.gov/homeless - Website for veteran housing benefits.

Other Resources

Dania Beach Stakes - A stakes race held at Gulfstream Park.
Mr. Prospector Stakes - A stakes race held at Gulfstream Park.
Oaklawn Sports Overnight Stakes - A stakes race held at Oaklawn Park.
The Preakness - A horse race mentioned in relation to Goal Oriented.
Woodchopper Stakes - A stakes race held at the Fairgrounds.