"Don Roe Doctrine" Reorients U.S. Policy, Risks Global Order

The "Americas First" Doctrine: More Than Just a Slogan, It's a Systemic Shift with Far-Reaching Consequences. This conversation with Hal Brands and Mauricio Claver-Carone reveals that the "Don Roe Doctrine"--a more assertive U.S. foreign policy in the Western Hemisphere--is not merely a rhetorical flourish but a fundamental reorientation driven by both structural global shifts and President Trump's personal vision. The non-obvious implication is not just about regional control, but about a potential unraveling of the post-1945 international order, with ripple effects felt in global trade, security, and the very notion of territorial integrity. Investors, policymakers, and anyone concerned with the global landscape should read this to understand the hidden costs and potential long-term advantages of this assertive posture, and how it signals a departure from decades of U.S. global engagement.

The Echoes of Empire: Reclaiming Regional Primacy

The "Don Roe Doctrine," a modern interpretation of the Monroe Doctrine, signifies a deliberate effort by the United States to reassert dominance in the Western Hemisphere. This isn't just about strategic positioning; it's a calculated move to consolidate resources, secure borders against perceived threats like drug trafficking and migration, and project power in an era of renewed great power competition. Hal Brands points out the historical parallel: the U.S. often solidifies its regional influence when the global order is in flux, a pattern visible during past global conflicts and now, as a new era of rivalry emerges.

Mauricio Claver-Carone emphasizes that this doctrine stems directly from President Trump's personal conviction, rooted in his background as a developer and his consistent belief that regional strength is the bedrock of global power. The President's frustration with the lack of U.S. naval presence in the Caribbean, contrasted with deployments in distant regions, highlights a core tenet: the immediate neighborhood demands prioritized attention. This isn't about nation-building, but about forging practical, business-oriented partnerships, irrespective of a nation's political leaning.

"The President's view is always, listen, there's not a region in the world that impacts the United States more on a daily basis than Latin America and the Caribbean, whether it's from a security perspective, from the transit of drugs, and even potentially terrorism, etc., that can cross through the borders."

-- Mauricio Claver-Carone

The doctrine's emphasis on tangible benefits, particularly resource control, distinguishes it from earlier iterations of the Monroe Doctrine. Brands notes Trump's focus on the disposition and sale of Venezuelan oil, aligning with a neo-mercantilist approach. This focus on economic gain and resource control, while seemingly straightforward, carries the hidden consequence of potentially reverting to a 19th-century style of statecraft, one less apologetic about the desire to control weaker nations' resources.

The Cascade of Consequences: From Regional Control to Global Disruption

The implications of this assertive regional policy extend far beyond Latin America. Brands warns of a potential unraveling of the post-1945 international order, a system built on U.S. leadership, prohibitions against forcible conquest, and freedom of navigation. The pursuit of territorial changes, as seen in discussions around Greenland, mirrors the actions of China and Russia in other regions, potentially ushering in an era reminiscent of the 1930s, where great powers coercively disrupt the territorial status quo.

"So if you have a situation in which the US is also seeking to redraw borders through coercion or perhaps the use of force, you have a world in which the three most powerful countries are all violently or coercively disrupting the territorial status quo. That's something we haven't seen since the 1930s, and that could be deeply corrosive to the international order that has prevailed since 1945."

-- Hal Brands

This shift has significant implications for global powers like China and Russia. While they may see the loss of allies like Maduro as a setback, they could also benefit from a world where international norms and laws hold less sway. An intensified U.S. focus on the Western Hemisphere could also divert resources from other critical regions, creating opportunities for adversaries elsewhere. The redeployment of military assets, such as the aircraft carrier from the Mediterranean to the Caribbean, illustrates this resource reallocation, potentially leaving other areas more vulnerable.

The pursuit of "Americas First" is framed as a natural extension of "America First," a strategy to counter the narrative of a declining U.S. and an ascendant China. However, the hidden cost of this strategy is the potential erosion of global stability. If the U.S. abandons its role as a guarantor of the existing international order, the world could see a proliferation of nuclear weapons, a retreat of democratic values, increased disorder on the high seas impacting global trade, and a challenge to dollar dominance. This is the "mega risk" Brands identifies: a fundamental shift in U.S. global policy that would fundamentally alter the way the world works.

The Uncomfortable Truth: Delayed Payoffs and Competitive Moats

The "Don Roe Doctrine" highlights a critical dynamic: the creation of competitive advantage through embracing immediate discomfort for long-term gain. The emphasis on practical partnerships, even with ideologically opposed governments, is a pragmatic approach that bypasses the ideological debates that often stall progress. This willingness to engage across the political spectrum, focusing on shared interests like energy security and economic stability, creates a durable foundation for U.S. influence.

The drive for energy security in Latin America, for instance, is presented not just as an economic opportunity but as a solution to migration drivers stemming from high energy costs. By fostering energy independence and development, the U.S. aims to stabilize the region, thereby addressing security concerns. This long-term vision, requiring sustained investment and partnership, is precisely where competitive advantage can be built. Countries that embrace these partnerships, like Guyana with American companies, demonstrate the potential for growth when nationalist, 20th-century strains are left behind.

The doctrine's success hinges on sustained commitment. Claver-Carone points to the potential consolidation of partnerships following elections in Colombia and Brazil, emphasizing the opportunity to reconfigure business relationships beyond simple trade to include U.S. investment equity. This strategic presence in sectors like energy and infrastructure aims to ensure the U.S. remains the partner of choice, preventing competitors like China from gaining further footholds. The challenge, however, lies in the patience required for these investments to yield results, a trait often lacking in political cycles.

Actionable Insights for Navigating a Shifting Landscape

• Prioritize Regional Partnerships: Actively seek and strengthen practical, business-oriented partnerships across Latin America and the Caribbean, focusing on mutual economic benefit and security. (Immediate Action)
• Invest in Energy Security: Support initiatives that enhance energy production and distribution within partner nations, addressing both economic needs and migration drivers. (This pays off in 12-18 months)
• Modernize Commercial Agreements: Move beyond traditional trade deals to incorporate U.S. investment equity and strategic presence in key infrastructure and resource sectors. (Over the next 1-2 years)
• Embrace Long-Term Strategic Vision: Recognize that genuine influence and competitive advantage in the region will require sustained effort and a willingness to invest where immediate payoffs are not guaranteed. (This pays off in 3-5 years)
• Monitor Global Order Shifts: Stay attuned to the potential destabilizing effects of a less U.S.-centric global system, including challenges to international law, trade, and democratic norms. (Ongoing Vigilance)
• Understand Competitor Dynamics: Acknowledge that while the U.S. reasserts regional dominance, global competitors like China and Russia will continue to pursue their interests, potentially leveraging shifts in U.S. focus. (Ongoing Analysis)
• Re-evaluate Risk Exposure: For investors, assess how a potential shift away from the post-1945 international order could impact global trade, currency stability, and geopolitical risk premiums. (Immediate Risk Assessment)