Embracing Doubt: Learning from Uncertainty to Make Better Decisions

Key Quotes

"For so many of us when we're in a moment of doubt our system glitches and shuts down. We do not like it. We don't like not knowing what to do. It raises all sorts of questions about our competence and confidence. We want a simple answer. It is one of the design flaws in the human operating system. We live in a complex fluxing universe and yet we hate uncertainty."

Dan Harris introduces the common human reaction to doubt, highlighting it as a fundamental flaw in our operating system. He explains that our aversion to uncertainty causes us to shut down when faced with ambiguity, leading to questions about our abilities and a desire for simple answers.

"Analysis paralysis is related but distinct in the sense that analysis paralysis can happen only when you have two options and you're not sure which one to pick but it's the rumination it's rethinking and thinking over and over again about which option to choose and why you might choose one versus another and collecting data and asking more and more folks but delaying making a decision."

Bobby Parmar clarifies the concept of analysis paralysis, distinguishing it from choice fatigue. Parmar explains that analysis paralysis involves excessive rumination and overthinking, even with only two options, leading to a delay in decision-making due to the continuous collection of data and advice.

"The best way to figure out what we need to learn in order to make a difficult decision is to test things out. You know whether that's I have to break this really difficult news to my parents and I'm not quite sure how to do it and I'm really worried about their reaction. You might start by finding a trusty advisor a sibling and saying how do you think mom is going to react to this? How do you think dad is going to react to this? And by getting that additional data you can hone your strategy and your tactics to put yourself in a better position when you're actually making the difficult decision or having that difficult conversation."

Bobby Parmar emphasizes the importance of testing and experimentation as a strategy for making difficult decisions. Parmar suggests that by running small tests, such as seeking advice from a trusted advisor about a sensitive conversation, one can gather crucial data to refine their approach and improve their position when facing the actual decision or conversation.

"The core part of this is that doubt is not something that should erode our confidence that we can maintain our confidence to learn and grow even when we don't know what to do. So in this section on confidence you've got anticipation tactics and resilience tactics."

Bobby Parmar asserts that doubt should not diminish one's confidence, arguing that confidence can be maintained for learning and growth even amidst uncertainty. Parmar introduces the concepts of anticipation tactics and resilience tactics as methods to build confidence when facing doubt.

"When we make decisions there are all kinds of outcomes of that decision that might affect people differently even when we're making decisions as an individual we belong to a community we're part of a social context and we might put blinders on and say look this is none of your business it's my decision but we still have to justify our choices to others and when in particular things surprise people in a negative way ah can't believe i was fired for that their intuition is trying to blame us."

Bobby Parmar discusses the social implications of decision-making and the tendency towards blame when outcomes are negative. Parmar explains that even individual decisions have social contexts, and when unexpected negative consequences arise, people often resort to blaming, highlighting the need to justify choices to others.

"After action reviews close that loop and say we just did a thing what do we learn from doing that thing that might change how we approach similar decisions in the future and so after action reviews popularized by our military but similar things happen in companies in hospitals where we step back and we ask ourselves four questions: What did I think would happen? What actually happened? Why? And what will we do differently next time?"

Bobby Parmar explains the purpose of After Action Reviews (AARs) as a method to close the learning loop after a decision or action. Parmar details the four key questions of an AAR, emphasizing how reflecting on expectations, actual outcomes, reasons for discrepancies, and future adjustments facilitates continuous learning and improvement.