College Football Playoff Expansion Stalled by Conference Disputes

The Varsity · December 24, 2025 · Listen to Original Episode →

Original Title:

TL;DR

Big Ten and SEC disagreements over CFP expansion format, particularly regarding at-large bids versus automatic qualifiers, create a stalemate, delaying potential changes beyond 2026 and preserving the current 12-team structure.
The College Football Playoff's first-round matchups were largely uncompetitive, with several lopsided games and a lack of standout performances, diminishing overall buzz despite improved quarterfinals and semifinals.
Notre Dame's public "scorched earth" tour after its CFP snub, led by Athletic Director Pete Thamel, signals potential strain on its relationship with the ACC and prompts speculation about future conference alignment.
The increasing financial strain on athletic departments, driven by rising coaching salaries and buyout costs, forces difficult decisions, sometimes prioritizing football revenue to avoid further financial decline, even at significant expense.
The scheduling conflict between the College Football Playoff and the NFL is strategically managed by moving CFP games earlier and against expected blowouts, but a more significant shift is needed to reclaim Saturday viewership.
The inclusion of Group of Five champions in the CFP, exemplified by James Madison and Tulane, faces future scrutiny regarding performance thresholds, balancing "best versus deserving" arguments and potential antitrust concerns.
The long-standing Notre Dame-USC rivalry's hiatus highlights the disruptive impact of conference realignment, sacrificing tradition and historical matchups as teams prioritize conference play and navigate complex scheduling demands.

Deep Dive

College Football Playoff expansion is stalled due to Big Ten and SEC disagreements, jeopardizing the playoff's future format and potentially impacting Notre Dame's independence. The current system, while flawed, may persist due to power dynamics and a lack of consensus on significant changes, highlighting a broader tension between traditional structures and the evolving landscape of college sports.

The College Football Playoff's first-round matchups proved largely unengaging, raising questions about the value of its expanded field. This lack of excitement is exacerbated by the competition with the NFL for viewership, a problem that scheduling adjustments alone may not fully resolve. The current playoff structure, particularly its reliance on human selection committees and weekly rankings, has fueled controversy and backlash, as evidenced by Notre Dame's public grievances after being snubbed. This process, intended to foster engagement, has instead created significant friction, potentially impacting relationships between institutions and conferences.

The ongoing realignment and expansion of major conferences like the Big Ten and SEC are creating a de facto "super league" era, making it increasingly difficult for independent programs like Notre Dame to maintain their scheduling and playoff access. This pressure, coupled with the financial realities of modern college athletics, where football revenue is paramount, is forcing athletic departments into costly coaching changes and strategic decisions that prioritize immediate competitive advantage over financial prudence. The financial strain on athletic departments, intensified by Name, Image, and Likeness (NIL) compensation, means that even ostensibly prudent decisions, like retaining a coach, are becoming financially untenable, leading to rapid and often surprising coaching turnovers.

The financial pressures on athletic departments, combined with an impatience driven by rapid coaching success stories like Indiana's, are accelerating coaching changes. This dynamic forces institutions to act decisively to maintain momentum and donor engagement, even if it means incurring significant financial costs. The financial incentives within college football are so substantial that even acknowledgments of contractual problems do not deter the pursuit of top-tier coaches, perpetuating a cycle of escalating salaries and buyouts. This business-driven approach, rather than a focus on sustainable athletic department health, dictates decisions, suggesting that the current trend of high-stakes coaching carousel is likely to continue.

Action Items

Audit CFP selection criteria: Identify 3-5 systemic biases or inconsistencies in weekly rankings and final selection processes.
Draft runbook template: Define 5 required sections (e.g., scheduling, playoff access, financial considerations) for conference alignment discussions.
Measure conference revenue impact: Calculate potential financial shifts for Notre Dame if it joins a Power 4 conference versus remaining independent.
Analyze scheduling challenges: Identify 3-5 specific scenarios where conference expansion makes scheduling non-conference games more difficult for independent teams.
Evaluate group of five playoff inclusion: Track 3-5 metrics to assess the impact of group of five participation on CFP viewership and game quality.

Key Quotes

"I mean, ESPN used to be in more than 100 million homes and now it's in a fraction of that. Traditional television still matters, of course. Leagues still prioritize broadcast channels for their biggest games. They still amass the most viewers by far. But this trend towards streaming, well, it's unmistakable."

John Arand, the host, highlights the significant decline in traditional television viewership for major sports leagues like ESPN. This observation underscores the shift in media consumption habits towards streaming services, indicating a fundamental change in how audiences access and engage with sports content.

"So while it seems like everyone has written television's obituary for years now, I just wanted to take a second and acknowledge that good old-fashioned TV is still in a pretty good place."

John Arand offers a counterpoint to the prevailing narrative of traditional television's demise. He suggests that despite the rise of streaming, broadcast television continues to hold significant value, particularly for major sporting events, implying that its role in the media landscape is not yet obsolete.

"I would argue as long as we get greater games as we go and it looks like we're gonna have great quarters and in great semifinals, I'm fine with it. But, you know, I do think it it didn't have a ton of buzz and I think also partially because, you know, that first round is up against the NFL. I just think it's really hard for those games to break through anyway."

Nicole Auerbach expresses a nuanced view on the College Football Playoff's first round, acknowledging that while the overall quality of games may improve in later rounds, the initial matchups lacked significant buzz. She attributes this partly to the competition from NFL games, which makes it difficult for college football's early playoff games to capture audience attention.

"So they have given themselves to the end of January to decide if they're going to change anything for next fall for the 2026 season. That's to get through the CFP this year. The commissioners always meet the weekend of the title game in person. So they'll do all of that, but again, unless Tony Petiti, the Big Ten commissioner, is changing his mind, I I don't necessarily think that, you know, that's going to happen."

Nicole Auerbach outlines the timeline and key decision-makers involved in potential College Football Playoff expansion. She indicates that a decision regarding changes for the 2026 season is expected by the end of January, but expresses skepticism about any changes occurring unless the Big Ten commissioner alters his stance, highlighting the influence of conference leadership on the CFP's future.

"So that's why you have, you know, them supporting this, their coaches obviously very vocal and supporting more at-large spots also with new metrics that are supposed to favor SEC schedules with strength of schedule metrics and then at the Big 12 and the ACC have also expressed support for, you know, extra at-large spots as well."

Nicole Auerbach explains the differing perspectives on CFP expansion among major conferences. She notes that the SEC, Big 12, and ACC support models that include more at-large bids, partly due to their teams' performance and the potential for their programs to benefit from such a system, contrasting with the Big Ten's preference for automatic qualifying (AQ) bids.

"And then of course you have the two Group of Five teams because of the ACC tiebreaker problems. So there were just like a lot of things I think that were stacked up against it this year. But I do think obviously there's a lot of people who are pushing to expand it to 16 with five AQ spots."

Nicole Auerbach points to specific issues, such as ACC tiebreaker complexities, that contributed to challenges for the College Football Playoff this year. She also mentions the ongoing discussions and proposals for expanding the playoff to 16 teams with five automatic qualifying spots, indicating a continued push for significant format changes.

Resources

External Resources

Books

"The Varsity" by John Arand - Mentioned as the podcast title and the host's newsletter.

Articles & Papers

"The CFP Expansion That Wasn’t" (The Varsity) - Episode title and subject of discussion.

People

Nicole Auerbach - College football insider for NBC Sports, guest on the podcast.
Michael Morris - Analyst with Guggenheim Securities, discussed for his bullish view on Fox's position.
Roger Gadell - Mentioned in relation to the NFL's media rights deals.
Joshua Perry - Colleague of Nicole Auerbach at NBC Sports, mentioned for his view on the field size in college football.
Pete - Athletic Director at Notre Dame, discussed for his public statements regarding the CFP selection.
Jimbo Fisher - Mentioned in relation to Florida State being left out of the College Football Playoff.
Caleb Williams - Mentioned as a player whose development is being unlocked by his coaching staff.
John Arand - Host of The Varsity podcast.
Greg Sankey - Commissioner of the SEC, mentioned in discussions about conference power.
Tony Petiti - Commissioner of the Big Ten, mentioned in discussions about conference power.
Rich Clark - CFP Executive Director, discussed regarding scheduling with the NFL.
Draymond Green - Host of "The Draymond Green Show," mentioned as a podcast host.
Ryan Reynolds - Mentioned in relation to a Mint Mobile promotion.
Kurt Cignetti - Mentioned as a coach whose success at Indiana has influenced expectations.
Lane Kiffin - Mentioned in relation to his contract with Ole Miss.
James Franklin - Mentioned in relation to his tenure as Penn State's coach and the speed of his departure.
Brian Kelly - Mentioned in relation to his contract with Louisiana and guaranteed money.

Organizations & Institutions

NBC Sports - Employer of Nicole Auerbach.
Guggenheim Securities - Employer of Michael Morris.
NFL (National Football League) - Professional American football league, discussed for media rights and scheduling.
FanDuel - Mentioned as a platform for live betting.
American Gaming Association - Organization ensuring legal regulated casino gaming and sports betting.
Audacy Inc. - Mentioned in relation to privacy policy.
NCAA (National Collegiate Athletic Association) - Governing body for college athletics.
Big Ten - College athletic conference, discussed in relation to expansion and scheduling.
SEC (Southeastern Conference) - College athletic conference, discussed in relation to expansion and scheduling.
ACC (Atlantic Coast Conference) - College athletic conference, discussed in relation to Notre Dame and scheduling.
Big 12 - College athletic conference, discussed in relation to expansion.
CFP (College Football Playoff) - Postseason tournament for college football, extensively discussed.
New England Patriots - Professional football team, mentioned as an example.
Chicago Bears - Professional football team, mentioned in relation to Caleb Williams.
Miami - College football team, mentioned in relation to a game score.
Texas A&M - College football team, mentioned in relation to a game score.
Alabama - College football team, mentioned in relation to a game score and playoff contention.
Oklahoma - College football team, mentioned in relation to a game score.
Ohio State - College football team, mentioned as a playoff contender.
Georgia - College football team, mentioned as a playoff contender.
Notre Dame - College football team, discussed extensively regarding playoff selection and conference affiliation.
BYU (Brigham Young University) - College football team, mentioned in relation to scheduling with Notre Dame.
Clemson - College football team, mentioned in relation to scheduling with Notre Dame.
USC (University of Southern California) - College football team, discussed in relation to scheduling with Notre Dame and conference affiliation.
JMU (James Madison University) - College football team, mentioned in relation to playoff selection.
Florida State - College football team, mentioned in relation to playoff selection.
Michigan State - College football team, mentioned in relation to coaching changes.
UCLA (University of California, Los Angeles) - College football team, mentioned in relation to coaching changes.
Northwestern - College football team, mentioned as James Franklin's last game.
Indiana - College football team, mentioned as a dark horse for the CFP.
Wisconsin - College football team, mentioned in relation to coaching decisions.
Maryland - College football team, mentioned in relation to coaching decisions.
Puck - Media company, partner of The Varsity podcast.
Odyssey - Podcast network, partner of The Varsity podcast.
Nessen - Mentioned as partners of The Varsity podcast.
Shopify - E-commerce platform, mentioned as a sponsor.
Mint Mobile - Wireless service provider, mentioned as a sponsor.

Websites & Online Resources

AmericanGaming.org/predictionmarkets - Website for information on prediction markets.
audacyinc.com/privacy-policy - Website for Audacy Inc. privacy policy.
podcastchoices.com/adchoices - Website for ad choices.
fanduel.com/sportsfan - Website for FanDuel app download.
sportsbook.fanduel.com - Website for FanDuel sportsbook terms.
fanduel.com/rg - Website for FanDuel responsible gambling resources.
puck.news - Website for Puck media company.

Other Resources

College Football Playoff (CFP) Expansion - Concept discussed regarding potential changes to the playoff format.
Live Betting - Betting strategy discussed in relation to FanDuel.
Prediction Markets - Financial markets discussed in relation to risks and regulation.
Cord Cutting - Trend in media consumption discussed in relation to traditional broadcasters.
Streaming - Trend in media consumption discussed in relation to traditional broadcasters.
World Cup - Sporting event discussed in relation to advertising revenue for Fox.
Media Rights Deals - Contracts for broadcasting rights, discussed in relation to the NFL.
BCC (Bowl Championship Series) - Former system for determining college football champions.
AQ (Automatic Qualification) - System for teams to automatically qualify for the CFP.
Selection Committee - Group responsible for selecting teams for the CFP.
Weekly TV Rankings - Rankings of college football teams broadcast weekly.
Bowl Opt-Out - Decision by a team to not participate in a bowl game.
Conference Championship Games - Games played to determine conference champions.
Super Leagues - Concept of consolidated leagues in college sports.
Independence Tax - Financial concept related to Notre Dame's independent status.
Backyard Brawl - Rivalry game mentioned as having returned.
Border War - Rivalry game mentioned as having returned.
Pop-Tart Bowl - College football bowl game.
Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) - Agreement regarding CFP access for Notre Dame.
NIL (Name, Image, Likeness) - Rules allowing college athletes to profit from their name, image, and likeness.
Rust vs. Rest - Concept discussing the impact of layoffs on team performance.
Transfer Portal - System for college athletes to transfer between schools.
Kinnick Stadium - Stadium mentioned in relation to Indiana's performance.
Austin Beaver Stadium - Stadium mentioned in relation to Indiana's performance.