Streamers Solidify Sports Rights Amidst Evolving Viewership and Metrics
TL;DR
- Streaming services are increasingly securing sports rights, demonstrating a real migration of viewers away from traditional cable bundles despite initial concerns about technical issues and the non-volume business models of streamers.
- The changing methodology of Nielsen ratings has inflated viewership numbers for live programming, making year-over-year increases less indicative of organic growth and more a result of altered counting methods.
- Major media deals for sports leagues like MLB and WWE are being structured to benefit from the deep pockets of streamers and established networks, offering fans more accessible subscription models and broader reach.
- The NFL's immense popularity and upcoming media rights negotiations create a powerful leverage point for the league to secure significantly increased revenue, potentially impacting the financial capacity for other sports.
- The strategic acquisition of sports entities by media companies, such as Fox buying IndyCar, represents a disciplined approach to growth by gaining equity in sports properties rather than solely purchasing broadcast rights.
- The international market for sports content, exemplified by Netflix's interest in the World Baseball Classic in Japan, presents a significant opportunity for global expansion and subscriber acquisition for streaming platforms.
- The potential for a MLB lockout and the complex navigation of new media rights deals place Rob Manfred at a pivotal point for baseball's future, impacting its media landscape through 2028.
Deep Dive
The sports media landscape in 2025 is marked by evolving viewership dynamics, strategic media rights negotiations, and a re-evaluation of talent, with streamers solidifying their place and traditional networks adapting to new realities. This shift necessitates a critical look at what stories are truly impactful versus those that are overhyped, and how emerging platforms are reshaping the value and distribution of sports content, with significant implications for leagues, broadcasters, and fans alike.
The increasing prevalence of streaming services in sports broadcasting, exemplified by Amazon's success with Thursday Night Football, signifies a fundamental migration of viewers away from traditional cable bundles. Despite adjustments in Nielsen's counting methods that inherently benefit live programming, Amazon's consistent year-over-year viewership growth indicates that sports fans are readily adopting streaming platforms, rendering earlier concerns about technical issues and viewer migration obsolete. This trend underscores a broader industry reality: sports leagues are increasingly partnering with deep-pocketed streamers, a development that was once met with trepidation but is now a confirmed driver of viewership. The overhyped story of the year, according to the discussion, is the general increase in TV ratings, largely attributed to methodological changes by Nielsen rather than organic growth in audience engagement. This highlights a need for discerning between genuine viewership gains and statistical anomalies.
MLB's media deals, while significant, were also deemed overhyped, particularly when compared to the top-tier rights of the NFL and NBA. The deals, which include ESPN's Sunday Night package, are seen as a stepping stone towards larger negotiations in 2028, when national rights become available. A key challenge for MLB moving forward is its lack of scarcity compared to the NFL, which boasts a shorter season and fewer games, making each broadcast more critical. Baseball must therefore devise a strategy to manage its extensive schedule within the streaming ecosystem, a problem that the NFL has successfully navigated through a combination of traditional TV and streaming. The Netflix deal for the World Baseball Classic, particularly its international component in Japan, emerges as a more compelling "under the radar" story. This partnership offers Netflix a pathway to global subscriber growth by leveraging baseball's popularity in key markets, potentially driving both subscriptions and engagement through a blend of advertising and affiliate fees.
The selection of top broadcast talent reveals a competitive landscape where comfort and consistency are highly valued. Joe Buck is recognized as the premier play-by-play announcer for his long-standing tenure and comfortable analysis alongside Troy Aikman, offering a reliable and authoritative broadcast. However, Mike Tirico is presented as a strong contender, praised for his comprehensive knowledge, real-time command of events, and unobtrusive style, particularly as he takes on major events like the Super Bowl and Olympics. In the analyst role, Greg Olsen is highlighted as a standout, with Tom Brady showing significant improvement due to increased relaxation, conciseness, and an ability to simplify complex concepts, benefiting from his status as a legendary quarterback. Chris Collinsworth, despite occasional polarizing takes and a perceived shift towards league-friendliness, remains a solid and informative analyst, with his longevity and distinctive voice signaling significant games. The strategic moves of executives are also critical, with Mark Shapiro of TKO and Endeavor lauded for securing lucrative deals for the UFC with Paramount and WWE with ESPN, generating billions in revenue at a time of media industry upheaval. Looking ahead to 2026, Rick Cordella of NBC is a strong candidate for executive of the year due to his network's unprecedented trifecta of hosting the Winter Olympics, Super Bowl, and NBA All-Star Game within a short timeframe.
The future of sports media hinges on navigating the complex interplay between traditional broadcasters and streaming platforms, managing media rights strategically, and identifying genuine audience engagement from inflated metrics. The potential for a labor dispute in MLB looms large, with significant implications for its future media rights negotiations in 2028. The success of international streaming deals, like Netflix's foray into baseball content, signals new avenues for global sports consumption and monetization. Ultimately, the industry is in a state of dynamic evolution, where adaptability, strategic negotiation, and a clear understanding of audience behavior will define success.
Action Items
- Audit MLB media deals: Analyze structure and value of ESPN, Netflix, and other broadcast packages for 2028 rights.
- Track streaming viewership growth: Measure year-over-year audience increases for live sports on streaming platforms across 3-5 key properties.
- Analyze NFL rights strategy: Project potential value increase and negotiation leverage for upcoming NFL media rights deals.
- Evaluate executive impact: Assess 3-5 media executives' strategic decisions and their influence on sports media rights valuations.
- Measure sports popularity shift: Quantify audience migration from linear TV to streaming for 5-10 major sports leagues.
Key Quotes
"Nielsen changed the way that it counts viewers in such a way that it benefits live programming like the NFL so of course Thursday Night Football is up big it has to be it better be but my interest in this story has to do with Amazon when they got Thursday Night Football Amazon's executives told me to use its experience in England as a guide Amazon showed growth every season with the Premier League and that was its goal with the NFL and the numbers they show that it's happening."
John Orand explains that the increase in viewership for Thursday Night Football on Amazon is partly due to Nielsen's updated methodology, which favors live programming. Orand notes that Amazon executives used their experience with the Premier League in England as a benchmark, aiming for similar year-over-year growth, which the current numbers indicate they are achieving.
"To me the most overhyped is the most is the least interesting and that would be the ratings increase so I don't know how much time you want to spend on it I you know I think the big thing that people I think the general public even though you've written about it I've written about it you know Nielsen which is the arbiter of the ratings has changed how they conduct their methods."
Andrew Marchand identifies the increase in TV ratings as the most overhyped story of 2025. Marchand points out that Nielsen, the entity that measures ratings, has altered its methods, which has contributed to the reported increases. He suggests that this change in methodology makes the overall surge in ratings less significant than it might appear to the general public.
"The Athletic’s Andrew Marchand joins John to bestow The Varsity’s inaugural Sports Media Awards--from the most overhyped plot line and the sleeper story that flew under the radar, to the best play-by-play announcer, top analyst, and the executive who moved the industry the most."
The episode description sets the stage for the podcast by outlining the purpose of the inaugural Varsity Sports Media Awards. John Orand and Andrew Marchand are presented as the hosts who will be presenting these awards, covering various categories within the sports media industry. This highlights the focus on recognizing achievements and trends in sports media for the year.
"I think the one I don't know the MLB deal you said was overhyped I agree with you again general public probably thinking comparing to the NFL and the NBA deals which was for their top properties that those deals were not for MLB's top properties so if you look at the money they're different I do think with ESPN opting out in February the acrimony between ESPN and MLB Rob Manfred said in a memo to the league's owners that was obtained by my colleague at the Athletic Evan Drellich said that ESPN's a shrinking platform and then eight months later they do the deals they're with Netflix NBC Peacock and ESPN."
Andrew Marchand discusses the MLB media deals, agreeing with John Orand that they were overhyped. Marchand clarifies that the deals were not for MLB's top properties, unlike the NFL and NBA deals, which accounts for the difference in financial figures. He also notes the complex relationship between ESPN and MLB, referencing a memo from Rob Manfred that described ESPN as a "shrinking platform" before the subsequent media deals were made with various platforms.
"The Netflix and baseball deal is one that flew under the radar for me not necessarily because of the um the field of dream games or the opening night game or or even the home run derby I think the deal that they did for the world baseball classic in Japan hasn't been written about a ton and I think that is going to be that's going to be where they really test the waters because Netflix comes out and and they're trying they're trying to be an international global well they are a global streamer but the rights that they're trying to to grab are global."
John Orand identifies the Netflix and baseball deal, particularly concerning the World Baseball Classic in Japan, as an under-the-radar story. Orand suggests that this deal represents a significant test for Netflix's global streaming ambitions, as they aim to acquire rights that have international appeal. He believes this aspect of the deal has not received sufficient attention.
"I would say that Shapiro from TKO and Endeavor is probably the winner I I look I think you look at the Paramount deal for UFC I mean I it's hard to think of a better deal in a long time for both entities in a lot of respects now I don't know if it pencils out for um Paramount but I don't know if much of what they're doing does as far as I can tell but they have you know Ellison's they have so much money so maybe it doesn't matter but 7.7 billion for seven years so that's 1.1 billion a year you go from ESPN to CBS Paramount."
Andrew Marchand argues that Mark Shapiro from TKO and Endeavor is the likely winner for the Executive of the Year award. Marchand highlights the UFC deal with Paramount as a prime example of a highly successful negotiation, generating $7.7 billion over seven years ($1.1 billion annually). He notes the transition from ESPN to CBS/Paramount, suggesting it was a beneficial arrangement for both parties involved.
Resources
External Resources
Books
- "The Wall Street Journal" - Mentioned in relation to an interview with Jason Gay.
Articles & Papers
- "The Athletic" - Mentioned as the publication where Andrew Marchand is a sports media reporter.
- "Puck News" - Mentioned as the platform where a newsletter and discount code are available.
People
- Andrew Marchand - Sports media reporter for The Athletic and host of a twice-weekly podcast.
- John Orand - Host of "The Varsity" podcast and Puck's sports correspondent.
- Jason Gay - Mentioned as the author of an interview with Tom Brady.
- Rob Manfred - Mentioned in relation to potential labor issues in baseball and media rights.
- Eric Shanks - Mentioned as overseeing the World Cup for Fox.
- Mark Shapiro - Mentioned as an executive who sold UFC to Paramount and WWE to ESPN.
- Rick Cordella - Mentioned as an executive at NBC overseeing major events.
- Roger Goodell - Mentioned as overseeing NFL rights negotiations.
- Mike Tirico - Mentioned as an elite play-by-play announcer for NBC.
- Joe Buck - Mentioned as a top play-by-play announcer, particularly for the NFL.
- Troy Aikman - Mentioned as a top analyst, often paired with Joe Buck.
- Greg Olsen - Mentioned as a top analyst, potentially overtaking Troy Aikman.
- Chris Collinsworth - Mentioned as a long-time announcer for Sunday Night Football.
- Tom Brady - Mentioned as an analyst who has improved in his broadcasting career.
- Drew Brees - Mentioned as a former analyst for NBC and currently with Fox.
- Adam Amin - Mentioned as a broadcast partner for Drew Brees.
- Al Michaels - Mentioned as a prominent announcer, particularly for Amazon Prime Video.
- Bob Costas - Mentioned in relation to having a Mickey Mantle card.
- Summerall - Mentioned in historical context with Madden regarding NFL announcing duos.
- Madden - Mentioned in historical context with Summerall regarding NFL announcing duos.
- Kevin Harlan - Mentioned as a broadcaster whose style some might find too intense.
- Gus Johnson - Mentioned as a broadcaster whose style some might find too intense.
- Kirk Herbstreit - Mentioned as a potential top analyst.
- J.J. Watt - Mentioned as a rookie analyst who has made an impact.
- Dan Marino - Mentioned in a hypothetical scenario about NFL careers.
- Terry Bradshaw - Mentioned in a hypothetical scenario about NFL careers.
- Bobby Brister - Mentioned in relation to a childhood football card.
- Patrick Mahomes - Mentioned as a player Chris Collinsworth often praises.
- Dick Ebersol - Mentioned as the person who brought Chris Collinsworth into broadcasting.
- Paul Rabel - Mentioned as the head of the PLL (Premier Lacrosse League).
- Wayne Gretzky - Mentioned in a hypothetical soccer match scenario.
Organizations & Institutions
- The Athletic - Publication where Andrew Marchand works.
- Puck - Media company associated with the podcast and newsletter.
- The Varsity - Name of the podcast.
- Amazon - Mentioned for its Thursday Night Football viewership and potential future media deals.
- Nielsen - Mentioned for changes in how viewership ratings are counted.
- Premier League - Mentioned in relation to Amazon's past experience with streaming sports.
- ESPN - Mentioned in relation to MLB media deals, WWE, and potential NFL opt-outs.
- MLB (Major League Baseball) - Discussed in relation to media deals, potential lockouts, and future rights.
- Netflix - Mentioned for its deal with MLB for the World Baseball Classic and its global streaming strategy.
- NBC - Mentioned for its broadcast of major sporting events like the Super Bowl and Olympics.
- Peacock - Mentioned as a streaming platform for NBC content.
- Fox - Mentioned for its acquisition of IndyCar and its role in broadcasting the World Cup.
- Turner - Mentioned in relation to past MLB media deals.
- YouTube - Mentioned for its deal with Disney and its growing presence in sports broadcasting.
- Paramount - Mentioned for its deal with UFC and its streaming service.
- WWE (World Wrestling Entertainment) - Mentioned for its deal with ESPN.
- TKO - Mentioned in relation to Mark Shapiro's executive role.
- Endeavor - Mentioned in relation to Mark Shapiro's executive role.
- CBS - Mentioned in relation to college football broadcasting.
- Apple - Mentioned for its deal with Formula 1.
- IndyCar - Mentioned as a sport acquired by Fox.
- Premier Lacrosse League (PLL) - Mentioned as a league where ESPN has taken stakes.
- F1 (Formula 1) - Mentioned as a sport moving to Apple.
- NFL (National Football League) - Discussed extensively regarding media rights, viewership, and its importance in the sports media landscape.
- New England Patriots - Mentioned as an example team in a hypothetical scenario.
- Pro Football Focus (PFF) - Mentioned as a data source in a hypothetical scenario.
- Odyssey - Mentioned as a podcast network.
- Nesson - Mentioned as a partner for "The Varsity" podcast.
- Mark Miller Auto - Mentioned as a partner for "The Varsity" podcast.
- RingCentral - Mentioned as a sponsor of "The Varsity" podcast, offering AI communication solutions.
- American Gaming Association - Mentioned in relation to prediction markets.
- Audacy - Mentioned in relation to listener data and privacy policy.
- FanDuel - Mentioned as a platform for live sports betting.
Websites & Online Resources
- andrewmarchand.com - Website for Andrew Marchand's podcast.
- americangaming.org/predictionmarkets - Website related to prediction markets.
- audacyinc.com/privacy-policy - Website for Audacy's privacy policy.
- podcastchoices.com/adchoices - Website for ad choices.
- ringcentral.com - Website for RingCentral's AI communication solutions.
- fanduel.com/sportsfan - Website for FanDuel's sports betting app.
- pucknews.com - Website for Puck News.
- mintmobile.com - Website for Mint Mobile.
Other Resources
- Thursday Night Football - Mentioned for its viewership on Amazon Prime Video.
- Premier League - Mentioned in relation to Amazon's past experience with streaming sports.
- Live Games - Discussed as a critical element in sports media.
- Cable Bundle - Mentioned in the context of sports fans migrating away from traditional TV.
- Streaming - Discussed as a growing trend in sports broadcasting.
- Sports Media Awards - The central theme of the podcast episode.
- 2025 Super Bowl - Mentioned as an event Mike Tirico will call.
- Winter Olympics - Mentioned as an event Mike Tirico will host.
- NBA Playoffs - Mentioned as an event Mike Tirico will cover.
- Golf - Mentioned as a sport Mike Tirico covers.
- Sunday Night Football - Mentioned as a broadcast where Mike Tirico is the main voice.
- College Football - Mentioned in relation to media coverage and viewership.
- MLB Media Deals - Discussed as a potentially overhyped story.
- TV Ratings - Discussed as a potentially overhyped story, with changes in Nielsen's methodology.
- NBA Media Deals - Mentioned in comparison to MLB deals.
- World Baseball Classic - Mentioned as a key event for Netflix's strategy in Japan.
- Field of Dreams Games - Mentioned in relation to Netflix and baseball.
- Home Run Derby - Mentioned in relation to MLB media deals.
- Formula 1 - Mentioned as a sport moving to Apple.
- IndyCar - Mentioned as a sport acquired by Fox.
- Play-by-play Announcers - A category for awards.
- Analysts - A category for awards.
- Troy Aikman - Mentioned as a top analyst.
- Manningcast - Mentioned as an alternative broadcast for Monday Night Football.
- Sunday Night Football - Mentioned as a broadcast where Chris Collinsworth is a commentator.
- UFC (Ultimate Fighting Championship) - Mentioned for its deal with Paramount.
- WWE (World Wrestling Entertainment) - Mentioned for its deal with ESPN.
- WrestleMania - Mentioned as a premium live event for WWE.
- World Cup - Mentioned as a major upcoming event for Fox and its potential impact.
- Soccer - Discussed in relation to the World Cup and its popularity in the US.
- Women's World Cup - Mentioned as a broadcast rights Fox has lost.
- Labor Issues in Baseball - Mentioned as a potential lockout scenario.
- Regional Sports Network Issue - Mentioned as a problem MLB needs to solve.
- Prediction Markets - Mentioned in relation to state authority and consumer risks.
- Listener Data - Mentioned in relation to privacy practices.
- Ad Choices - Mentioned in relation to podcast advertising.
- AI Communications - Mentioned as a feature of RingCentral.
- Live Betting - Mentioned as a feature of FanDuel.
- Unlimited Wireless - Mentioned as a service offered by Mint Mobile.