Fantasy Football Player Usage Trends and Lineup Implications - Episode Hero Image

Fantasy Football Player Usage Trends and Lineup Implications

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TL;DR

  • Rookie tight end Kyle Pitts is demonstrating increased explosiveness and health, leading to a 34% first-read target rate and becoming a primary offensive weapon, potentially warranting a top-five tight end ranking.
  • The Saints' passing game, particularly for Chris Olave, has shown improved efficiency with Derek Carr, evidenced by a 31% first-read target rate and 13.3 catchable expected fantasy points per game since Week 12.
  • Giants tight end Theo Johnson is a rare second-year tight end with significant production, joining an elite tier with over 50 receptions, 500 yards, and five touchdowns, indicating strong offensive involvement.
  • Texans rookie receiver Jaylen Noel is increasingly involved in the offense, showing promise as a matchup threat and potential fantasy relevance, especially in a favorable matchup against a struggling Cardinals defense.
  • Bears receiver Luther Burden is demonstrating a high yard-per-route-run rate and a 33% first-read target rate, suggesting potential fantasy relevance despite a challenging schedule and inconsistent offense.
  • Panthers running back Chuba Hubbard is seeing increased usage, particularly on third downs and in series, indicating a growing role that could rival Rico Dowdle's starter status.
  • Despite a challenging offensive environment, Buccaneers receiver Mike Evans is expected to return and be a must-start option due to his rapport with Baker Mayfield and a favorable matchup against a blitz-heavy defense.

Deep Dive

The fantasy football playoff landscape is defined by uncertainty, necessitating a focus on actionable insights rather than mere data recitation. This briefing highlights key player usage trends and their implications for lineup decisions, exploring how evolving roles and team strategies present both opportunities and risks for fantasy managers navigating critical matchups.

The tight end position continues its volatile trajectory, with Kyle Pitts emerging as a significant value buy. His improved health and Atlanta's strategic deployment have unlocked his potential, evidenced by a 34% first-read target rate and strong points-per-game metrics with Kirk Cousins. This suggests Pitts is now a legitimate TE1, a stark contrast to earlier season struggles and a testament to his talent finally translating into consistent production. Conversely, Tyler Warren's role in the Colts' offense has diminished post-bye, with a low first-read target rate and declining yardage, making him a risky start and a candidate for dropping in favor of more reliable options like Dalton Kincaid or Hunter Henry.

Quarterback evaluations reveal a stark contrast between prospect potential and current NFL performance. Shedeur Sanders, despite flashes of collegiate capability, exhibits concerning pocket presence and a tendency to escape backward, mirroring some of Caleb Williams' issues but without the elite athleticism to compensate. While his recent performance against the Titans showed improved processing and willingness to attack downfield, underthrown passes and lingering pocket habits suggest a long-term path to NFL viability hinges on developing elite timing and anticipation, akin to Joe Burrow. This contrasts with Tyler Shuck, whose ability to change arm slots, throw downfield, and move as a runner presents a more adaptable profile, though his age and limited upside as a full-time starter remain questions. Neither is a guaranteed NFL starter, underscoring the inherent risk in late-round quarterback prospects.

Receiver usage patterns reveal opportunities in offenses finding their stride. Chris Olave's target share remains high with Derek Carr, despite a slight dip compared to Spencer Rattler, making him a low-end WR2. His rapport with Carr is solidifying, and his explosive play ability keeps him startable. For the Giants, Theo Johnson is emerging as a reliable option, joining rare company of second-year tight ends with significant production. His consistent high snap share and red zone involvement, coupled with favorable matchups against the Raiders and Commanders, position him as a viable TE1, even amidst the Giants' overall offensive inconsistency.

At running back, the Panthers' backfield situation remains fluid. While Chuba Hubbard has seen increased usage, particularly on third downs, Rico Dowdle retains the primary starter role. The split production limits the fantasy upside for both, making them difficult to trust as more than RB3 options. Elsewhere, Bijan Robinson continues to be the Falcons' focal point, with his high snap and route rates solidifying his RB1 status. Conversely, James Cook's role in Buffalo's offense appears secure, with goal-line work and receiving volume providing a strong fantasy floor, making him a reliable RB1 despite challenging matchups.

The Texans' passing game, particularly with C.J. Stroud back, presents fantasy opportunities. Nico Collins' dominant target share and Dalton Schultz's consistent involvement offer reliable production. While rookie receivers like Jayden Hagens and Tank Dell show promise, their roles are still solidifying, making them speculative plays. The Bears' backfield, split between D'Andre Swift and Khalil Herbert, offers floor-based production due to volume, but their limited passing game success and tough schedule temper expectations for significant upside.

The Buccaneers’ receiving corps faces a critical juncture with Mike Evans' potential return. His established rapport with Baker Mayfield and favorable matchup against the Saints' blitz-heavy defense could make him a must-start, even with potential snap count limitations. However, the overall landscape for receivers is challenging, with many offenses struggling to generate consistent passing production, making Evans’ proven talent a significant differentiator.

The Buccaneers' backfield, despite a dip in Bucky Irving's snap share, still favors him for fantasy relevance. His explosiveness and red zone involvement offer upside, even if Rachaad White and Sean Tucker also see touches. The overall inefficiency of the Buccaneers' ground game, however, makes it difficult to rely on any single back for consistent production.

The Titans' backfield remains a low-upside situation, with Tony Pollard's recent outburst against the Browns being an anomaly rather than a trend. His usage and the team's overall offensive struggles make him a difficult start. Similarly, the Jets' backfield offers little fantasy appeal, with Breece Hall's role limited by offensive struggles, making him a risky RB2 option.

The Saints' backfield, with Dalvin Cook stepping into a lead role, offers a mid-range RB2 floor, particularly with a favorable upcoming schedule. While Alvin Kamara's targets have not been fully replaced, Cook's consistent volume and red zone usage make him a valuable waiver wire add. The Giants' backfield situation is too uncertain with Tyrod Tracy's injury, making Devin Singletary a potentially more reliable, albeit unexciting, option due to his consistent usage.

The Broncos' backfield has shifted towards Javonte Williams, with his increased snap rate and target share making him a more viable fantasy option. However, his efficiency remains a concern, and the team's overall offensive limitations temper expectations for significant upside. The Lions' backfield continues to lean heavily on Jahmyr Gibbs, whose explosiveness and receiving volume make him a clear RB1. David Montgomery's role has diminished, relegating him to a backup or touchdown-dependent option.

The Chiefs' backfield remains a situation to avoid, with a split between Isiah Pacheco and Jerick McKinnon limiting the fantasy upside for both. The 49ers' backfield also presents a conundrum, with both Christian McCaffrey and Elijah Mitchell seeing significant work, making it difficult to predict consistent production from either. The Seahawks' backfield, split between Kenneth Walker and Zach Charbonnet, offers minimal upside due to inconsistent usage and a lack of dominant production from either player.

The Texans' passing game, with C.J. Stroud at the helm, offers intrigue, particularly with Nico Collins as the clear alpha receiver. However, the emergence of rookies like Tank Dell and John Metchie III, alongside Dalton Schultz, creates a crowded target share that could limit overall production. The Bears' passing game, while showing promise with Cole Kmet and D'Andre Swift, faces tough matchups and a run-heavy identity, making their receiving options speculative plays.

Action Items

  • Audit passing game usage: Analyze target share and route rate for 3-5 teams (Texans, Giants, Saints) to identify potential value plays.
  • Track backfield usage: For 3-5 teams with committee backfields (Panthers, Bears, Seahawks), measure snap share and target distribution to predict future workload.
  • Measure quarterback impact: For 3-5 rookie quarterbacks (Sanders, Shuck), analyze completion percentage over expectation and time-to-throw to assess development trajectory.
  • Evaluate tight end roles: For 3-5 tight ends with emerging usage (Johnson, Pitts), track target share and red zone opportunities to forecast fantasy relevance.

Key Quotes

"we need to get into a bunch of the nitty gritty to help you set your lineups to help you feel confident and comfortable that you'll give yourself the best chance to win today we're getting into a lot of fun stuff the ever changing landscape at the tight end position just seems like every week there's a new star to talk about every week there's a new player getting an insane target share that we need to talk about"

Dan Schneider highlights the critical need for detailed analysis as the fantasy football playoffs commence. He emphasizes that understanding the "nitty gritty" of player usage and targets is essential for setting winning lineups and building confidence. Schneider points out the dynamic nature of the tight end position, where new players emerge weekly with significant target shares, requiring constant attention.


"he's thought of as slow -- and you know, maybe his his top speed straight line speed isn't that fast -- but he looks like he's playing faster than he ever has and I think this is something that you see pretty often with these rookies as they, as you if you watch it like week to week, quarter to quarter, like they're they're picking the game up, it's it's slowing down for them and they're able to, um, move with more and more confidence and like comfort out there."

Jacob Gibbs observes that rookie players, like the one discussed, often show a marked improvement in their on-field speed and confidence as the season progresses. Gibbs notes that this phenomenon is common as rookies gain experience, allowing the game to "slow down" for them, leading to increased comfort and better performance. This suggests that evaluating rookies based on their mid-season trajectory can be more insightful than their initial impressions.


"The Titans are a big part of all of those passing games and I think the tight end, the usage of 12 personnel really makes things easy. It becomes the best friend for a rookie quarterback. We've heard that kind of in the past and that has faded a little bit in the NFL until recently as teams have started to realize, okay, we can use 12 personnel, we can get two tight ends on the field and find a little bit of a schematic advantage against the way that these teams are playing defense."

Gibbs explains a strategic advantage for rookie quarterbacks in the NFL. He points out that using "12 personnel" (one running back, two tight ends) simplifies the game for inexperienced quarterbacks by providing easier reads and options. Gibbs notes that this approach, once less common, is now being recognized by teams as a way to gain a "schematic advantage" against defenses.


"I think you could drop Warren even further to be honest. For for listeners, after Strange and Kelsey and Theo Johnson, it's Jauan Johnson. His route rate dropped a little bit. We're going to talk about some six or five, five or six passing games that stood out to me and some like potential cheap sources of value because I think tight end receiver have shifted a lot over the past few weeks."

Dan Schneider expresses a low confidence in Tyler Warren's fantasy value, suggesting he could be ranked even lower than his current position. Schneider indicates that after a certain tier of tight ends, the remaining players offer similar, limited upside. He mentions that the tight end and receiver landscapes have significantly changed recently, impacting potential value plays.


"I thought he threw well on the run rolling to his right, but when he came to the left and had to move to his left, he just couldn't get the ball out there and that's kind of because he had that he has that over the top throwing motion rather than throwing from like a three-fourths. He's not didn't show a good ability to change arm slots that often."

The speaker analyzes a quarterback's throwing mechanics, noting a discrepancy in his ability to throw effectively when moving to his right versus his left. The speaker attributes this to an "over the top throwing motion" that hinders his ability to change arm slots and throw accurately when moving left. This mechanical limitation impacts his overall effectiveness and adaptability on the field.


"The only reason that Caleb Williams things work is because he's such a good athlete and can scramble for yards or roll and then throw these insane dots down the field from weird arm angles that Caleb's able to throw from with ripping velocity. The type of quarterback that Sanders needs to be to work at the NFL level, the only way it's going to work over time is if he is a Joe Burrow. That's it. That's the only way it works."

The speaker contrasts two quarterbacks, highlighting Caleb Williams' exceptional athleticism and arm talent as key to his success. The speaker posits that for another quarterback, Sheduer Sanders, to succeed in the NFL, he would need to emulate Joe Burrow's style of pocket management and precise timing, as he lacks the same elite physical traits as Williams. This suggests that Sanders' path to NFL success is narrow and requires near-perfect execution.


"I think that the the top problem for me, the thing I was worried about the most was the the pocket presence and the and the fading back. Does that track? Yeah. What he, you completely tracks. He would escape backwards on a lot of pressure. And so then that ties in with the athleticism, which I don't actually think is that bad, but isn't good enough to get away with this in my opinion."

The speaker identifies a primary concern with a quarterback's "pocket presence," specifically his tendency to "fade back" when facing pressure. The speaker believes this habit, while perhaps not indicative of poor athleticism, is not compensated for by his current athletic ability. This suggests a need for the quarterback to improve his footwork and awareness within the pocket to avoid negative plays.


"I think that the the top problem for me, the thing I was worried about the most was the the pocket presence and the and the fading back. Does that track? Yeah. What he, you completely tracks. He would escape backwards on a lot of pressure. And so then that ties in with the athleticism, which I don't actually think is that bad, but isn't good enough to get away with this in my opinion."

The speaker identifies a primary concern with a quarterback's "pocket presence," specifically his tendency to "fade back" when facing pressure. The speaker believes this habit, while perhaps not indicative of poor athleticism, is not compensated for by his current athletic ability. This suggests a need for the quarterback to improve his footwork and awareness within the pocket to avoid negative plays.


"I think that the the top problem for me, the thing I was worried about the most was the the pocket presence and the and the fading back. Does that track? Yeah. What he, you completely tracks. He would escape backwards on a lot of pressure. And so then that ties in with the athleticism, which I don't actually think is that bad, but isn't good enough to get away with this in my opinion."

The speaker identifies a primary concern with a quarterback's "pocket

Resources

External Resources

Books

  • "The Office" - Mentioned as a comparison point for sitcoms.
  • "Parks and Recreation" - Mentioned as a comparison point for sitcoms.
  • "Seinfeld" - Mentioned as a comparison point for sitcoms.
  • "Arrested Development" - Mentioned as a comparison point for sitcoms.
  • "Veep" - Mentioned as a comparison point for sitcoms.
  • "New Girl" - Mentioned as a comparison point for sitcoms.
  • "Eastbound & Down" - Mentioned as a comparison point for sitcoms.
  • "The Righteous Gemstones" - Mentioned as a comparison point for sitcoms.

Articles & Papers

  • "The Office" (Source) - Mentioned as a comparison point for sitcoms.

Websites & Online Resources

  • Audacy Inc. Privacy Policy (https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy) - Mentioned in relation to listener data and privacy practices.
  • PodcastChoices.com/adchoices - Mentioned in relation to ad choices.
  • Amazon.com/prime - Mentioned for fast, free shipping during the holidays.
  • FantasyPoints.com - Mentioned as the source for the expected fantasy points model.
  • Indeed.com/listen - Mentioned for a sponsored job credit.

Podcasts & Audio

  • Fantasy Football Today Beyond the Box Score - The podcast being discussed.

Other Resources

  • 12 Personnel - Discussed as a formation that can provide a schematic advantage.
  • Catchable Expected Fantasy Points (CEFPs) - A metric used for player evaluation.
  • EPA per Play - A metric used for offensive evaluation.
  • Expected Fantasy Points (XFP) - A metric used for player evaluation.
  • Expected Fantasy Points per Game (XFP/G) - A metric used for player evaluation.
  • First Read Target Rate - A metric used for player evaluation.
  • Full PPR - A scoring format for fantasy football.
  • Hard Knocks - A sports documentary series mentioned in relation to the NFC East.
  • Live Betting on FanDuel - Mentioned as a feature for real-time sports betting.
  • National Football League (NFL) - The professional American football league.
  • New England Patriots - Mentioned as an example team for performance analysis.
  • New Orleans Saints - Mentioned as a team with a strong defense.
  • New York Giants - Mentioned as a team with an offense that generates opportunities.
  • Passing Game Usage - A category of discussion within the podcast.
  • Rest of Season (ROS) Ranks - A category of discussion within the podcast.
  • Route Rate - A metric used for player evaluation.
  • Snap Share - A metric used for player evaluation.
  • Target Share - A metric used for player evaluation.
  • UEFA Women's Champions League - A European soccer competition.
  • User Data and Privacy Practices - Mentioned in relation to Audacy Inc.
  • Vegas Implied Totals - A metric used for predicting game outcomes.
  • Waiver Budget - A resource in fantasy football leagues.
  • Week 14 Volume Breakdown - A data set discussed for the Chicago Bears.
  • Week 15 Rankings - A category of discussion within the podcast.
  • Week 15 Wide Receiver Rankings - A specific category of discussion.

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