Biden's Immigration Miscalculations Fueled Border Surge and Shifted Public Opinion - Episode Hero Image

Biden's Immigration Miscalculations Fueled Border Surge and Shifted Public Opinion

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TL;DR

  • Biden's administration ignored pre-election warnings of a surge in border crossings, leading to a humanitarian crisis that overwhelmed processing capacities and imperiled their agenda.
  • The administration's decision to immediately reverse Trump-era immigration policies, driven by a political calculus of racial reckoning and moral necessity, created a surge in border encounters.
  • A lack of clear strategic goals and a designated leader for immigration policy resulted in paralysis, with internal factions unable to agree on enforcement versus migrant support.
  • Texas Governor Greg Abbott's busing campaign to Democrat-led cities made the border issue impossible to ignore, forcing the White House to confront the escalating crisis.
  • The administration's failure to effectively communicate their policy changes and continued reluctance to discuss immigration publicly cemented negative public perceptions of open borders.
  • Biden's immigration miscalculations contributed to a rightward shift in public opinion, leaving a lasting impact of public skepticism towards immigrants and Democratic policies.

Deep Dive

President Biden's immigration policy decisions in his first term created an opening for a more aggressive agenda by his successor, Donald Trump, and fundamentally altered public perception of immigration in America. Despite clear warnings from within his own administration, Biden's choices to immediately reverse Trump-era policies and signal a more welcoming stance, coupled with a lack of decisive strategic leadership, resulted in an unprecedented surge in border crossings. This surge not only overwhelmed processing capacities and created humanitarian challenges but also triggered a significant rightward shift in public opinion, ultimately contributing to Trump's return to office and leaving a lasting scar on the political landscape regarding immigration.

The core of the administration's miscalculation stemmed from an underestimation of pent-up migration demand, exacerbated by global economic conditions and Biden's campaign promises. A pre-election memo explicitly warned that reversing Trump's policies would likely lead to chaos, a humanitarian crisis, and an overwhelmed system, yet these warnings were largely disregarded. This decision was influenced by the political climate of 2020, which emphasized a racial reckoning and a desire to distance from Trump's harsh policies, overriding concerns about border enforcement. Furthermore, a lack of clear, overarching strategic goals from President Biden himself, who reportedly exhibited discomfort discussing the issue, led to policy paralysis. Different factions within the administration--some favoring advocacy for migrants, others national security and enforcement--could not agree, and the strategy of simply not talking about the problem backfired as border numbers continued to rise.

The consequences of this inaction became undeniable. By March of Biden's first year, border encounters had surpassed the worst months of the Trump administration and continued to escalate. The administration's initial focus on mitigating the immediate crisis of children in border stations did not translate into a cohesive border security strategy. The perception of chaos at the border began to erode public support for migrants, a trend the administration hesitated to address directly for fear of alienating crucial voter demographics, particularly Latino voters. This hesitation proved to be another miscalculation, as Texas Governor Greg Abbott's busing campaign directly brought the border issue to Democratic-led cities, making it impossible to ignore and forcing the White House to acknowledge the problem.

By 2023, the administration attempted to regain control through programs offering legal pathways for some nationalities and a mandatory appointment app for others, but these measures failed to curb the escalating border crossings, which tripled during Biden's term. This led to a more aggressive stance, including engagement in bipartisan Senate talks for border closure authority and pressuring Mexico to tighten its own borders. Ultimately, the administration resorted to unilateral executive action, using the power to close the border to asylum applications, which did lead to a significant reduction in crossings. However, this action, taken late in the election cycle, was insufficient to overcome the deeply entrenched perception of open borders that had solidified over years. The lasting legacy of Biden's immigration policy is a public that remains wary of immigration and less inclined to grant the benefit of the doubt to immigrants or the Democratic Party, potentially closing off space for more welcoming immigration approaches for the foreseeable future.

Action Items

  • Audit immigration policy: Analyze 3-5 key decisions made during the first year of the Biden administration to identify preordained mistakes and their impact on border surges (ref: Flavelle memo).
  • Draft immigration strategy playbook: Define 5-7 core principles for managing border surges, incorporating lessons learned from the Biden administration's missteps and public perception shifts.
  • Measure public opinion shift: Track polling data on immigration sentiment over a 3-year period to quantify the impact of border policy perceptions on voter attitudes.
  • Evaluate communication strategy: Analyze the White House's messaging on immigration during the Biden administration to identify reasons for public silence and its effect on perceived policy effectiveness.

Related Episodes

Key Quotes

"at the u s border a potential surge could create chaos and a humanitarian crisis overwhelm processing capacities and imperil the agenda of the new administration"

This quote from a memo circulated among advisors highlights the early warnings given to the Biden campaign regarding the potential consequences of a more welcoming immigration policy. Christopher Flavelle explains that these warnings accurately predicted the chaos and strain on resources that would follow.

"the question of why did things go so badly and what did democrats learn is actually really relevant right now and is very timely because that question of what does the party stand for and what do americans want for the border and immigration remains fundamentally unresolved"

Christopher Flavelle argues that examining the Biden administration's immigration missteps is crucial for understanding the current political landscape. He emphasizes that the fundamental questions about the Democratic Party's stance on immigration and public desires remain unanswered.

"none of them felt like they really understood what biden's own views were in fact they weren't sure he held strong clear views and positions on immigration and the border"

This observation from interviews with former Biden administration officials, as reported by Christopher Flavelle, suggests a lack of clear direction from President Biden on immigration policy. The absence of defined views from the top contributed to a sense of paralysis within the administration.

"the logic here i'm told that the logic was if we just don't talk about it maybe it'll resolve on its own and the first time i heard that from someone who had been involved in these conversations i thought that's clearly crazy but there was some rationale behind it because that had happened in the past border surges in 2014 when biden was vice president in the obama administration surges under the first trump administration the border numbers had eventually subsided and public attention had moved on and they hoped the same would happen again but they were wrong"

Christopher Flavelle explains the administration's strategy of silence on immigration, which was based on a flawed hope that the issue would resolve itself. This approach, he notes, failed because the border surges did not subside as they had in previous instances.

"the polling data shows a real shift and that shift goes in the opposite direction it shows that more americans are becoming worried about illegal immigration and the support for migrants is falling seemingly in response to this perception of chaos at the border"

Christopher Flavelle points to polling data that indicates a significant change in public opinion regarding immigration. He explains that the perception of chaos at the border led to increased American concern about illegal immigration and a decrease in support for migrants.

"the real legacy of joe biden on immigration is that people's willingness to give immigrants the benefit of the doubt or even give democrats the benefit of the doubt is at least for now gone"

Christopher Flavelle concludes that President Biden's handling of immigration has eroded public trust. He suggests that the lingering anger and perception of crisis have made Americans less willing to give immigrants or Democrats the benefit of the doubt on this issue.

Resources

External Resources

Books

  • "Title" by Author - Mentioned in relation to [context]

Videos & Documentaries

  • The Daily - Mentioned as the podcast producing this episode.

Research & Studies

  • Memo - Warned that combined factors could produce a serious surge in border crossings, creating chaos and a humanitarian crisis.

Tools & Software

  • CBP One app - Referenced as a tool for migrants to make appointments to cross the border.

Articles & Papers

  • "How Biden Lost Americans’ Faith in Immigration" (The New York Times) - Discussed as the episode's core topic, reviewing President Biden's immigration policy decisions.

People

  • Joseph R. Biden Jr. - Former President whose immigration policy decisions are analyzed.
  • Donald Trump - Former President whose immigration policies and return to office are discussed in relation to Biden's actions.
  • Kamala Harris - Vice President elect who, along with President elect Biden, seemed to grasp the immigration problem but ultimately ignored recommendations to change course.
  • Greg Abbott - Governor of Texas who initiated a campaign to bus migrants to Washington D.C. and other cities.
  • Christopher Flavelle - Journalist who interviewed former Biden administration officials for an investigation into immigration and border policy.
  • Natalie Kitroeff - Host of The Daily podcast.
  • Susan Lee - Researcher and fact-checker for The Daily.
  • Mary Wilson - Producer of The Daily.
  • Nina Feldman - Producer of The Daily.
  • Jessica Chung - Producer of The Daily.
  • Afsheh Chatterjee - Producer of The Daily.
  • Eric Krupky - Producer of The Daily.
  • Claire Tenisgetter - Contributor to The Daily.
  • MJ Davis - Editor for The Daily.
  • Lynn - Editor for The Daily.
  • Patricia Willens - Editor for The Daily.
  • Dan Powell - Music contributor for The Daily.
  • Pat McCusker - Music contributor for The Daily.
  • Elisheva Ittu - Music contributor for The Daily.
  • Marian Lozano - Music contributor for The Daily.
  • Chris Wood - Engineer for The Daily.

Organizations & Institutions

  • The New York Times - Publisher of the podcast and source of the episode's article.
  • Schwab - Referenced for investment services.
  • Deloitte - Referenced for business scaling and operational services.
  • U.S. Army - Mentioned in relation to casualties in Syria.
  • ISIS - Mentioned as responsible for an attack in Syria.
  • Syrian security forces - Mentioned in relation to an individual involved in an attack.

Courses & Educational Resources

  • Brown University - Mentioned as the location of a school shooting attended by a student who had previously experienced another school shooting.

Websites & Online Resources

  • schwab.com - Website for Schwab investment services.
  • nytimes.com/subscribe - Website for subscribing to The New York Times.
  • amazon.com/newalexa - Website for the new Alexa Plus.

Podcasts & Audio

  • The Daily - Podcast producing this episode.

Other Resources

  • Hanukkah - Jewish holiday mentioned in the context of a shooting in Sydney.
  • Black Lives Matter - Movement mentioned in the context of the political mood in 2020.
  • Remain in Mexico policy - Trump administration policy reversed by Biden.
  • COVID-19 - Public health rules related to the pandemic mentioned in the context of deportations.
  • Public health rules - Mentioned in relation to deportations during COVID-19.
  • Venezuellans - Mentioned as passengers on a bus from Texas to Washington D.C.
  • Colombians - Mentioned as passengers on a bus from Texas to Washington D.C.
  • Cubans - Mentioned as passengers on a bus from Texas to Washington D.C.
  • Nicaraguans - Mentioned as passengers on a bus from Texas to Washington D.C.
  • AI - Technology mentioned in relation to Deloitte's services.
  • Cybersecurity - Technology mentioned in relation to Deloitte's services.
  • Intelligent automation - Technology mentioned in relation to Deloitte's services.
  • Alexa Plus - Product mentioned for personalized services.

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