Identifying Value in NFL Anytime Touchdown Scorer Bets - Episode Hero Image

Identifying Value in NFL Anytime Touchdown Scorer Bets

The Action Network Sports Betting Podcast · · Listen to Original Episode →
Original Title:

TL;DR

  • Investing in players like Jalin Brooks at +825, projected at +680, offers value due to their increased route run rate (71%) and potential for more snaps, especially if the starting quarterback returns.
  • Tyler Warren at +200 is a strong pick against the Jaguars, who are bottom five in tight end targets and yards, with Warren leading his team in red zone targets.
  • Trevor Lawrence at +100 is a solid bet due to his significant usage in short-yardage situations, ranking third among quarterbacks in carries inside the five-yard line.
  • Deonte Valet at +380 is positioned as a top-three receiver for the Saints, benefiting from increased involvement and a favorable matchup against Tampa Bay, who allows many touchdowns to wide receivers.
  • A.J. Mitchell at +260 is a strong candidate, operating as the clear top receiver for the Jets with a 98% route run rate, indicating a breakout potential.
  • Harold Fannin at +340 is a reliable target against the Titans' weak defense, as he consistently sees targets regardless of quarterback changes and is a favored short-throw option.
  • Kyle Pitts at +230 presents value against Seattle, who ranks 29th in DVOA against tight ends, making him a prime target for a touchdown when other options are limited.

Deep Dive

This podcast episode focuses on identifying value in anytime touchdown scorer bets for NFL Week 14, highlighting specific player selections based on matchup analysis, usage trends, and historical performance. The core implication is that by meticulously analyzing these factors, bettors can uncover undervalued opportunities that deviate from conventional betting logic, thereby increasing their potential for profitable wagers.

The experts break down matchups game by game, identifying players likely to score based on several key indicators. For instance, Jalin Brooks is selected at +825 due to a perceived opportunity in a Washington Commanders offense that may want to evaluate him further, with projections suggesting a higher chance of scoring than his odds indicate. Similarly, Josh Oliver at 10-to-1 is chosen for the Vikings because he is seeing an increased route-run rate and is typically on the field in red zone situations, offering fair odds. Tyler Warren for the Colts is favored at +200 against Jacksonville, as the Jaguars are weak against tight ends, and Warren leads the Colts in red zone targets. Trevor Lawrence is also a pick for the Jaguars at a favorable price, given his significant number of carries inside the five-yard line and the Colts' propensity to commit defensive pass interference penalties in the end zone.

The analysis extends to identifying players whose roles are increasing or whose matchups are particularly favorable. A.J. Mitchell is highlighted for the Jets at +260, having established himself as a clear top receiver with a high route participation rate, suggesting a breakout is underway. Malik Washington for the Dolphins is chosen at +370 due to his role as the clear number two receiver and his involvement in designed runs and return duties, providing multiple avenues to score. Harold Fannin for the Browns is a pick at +340 due to his consistent target share across different quarterbacks and the Titans' defensive weaknesses against zone coverage. Gunner Helm for the Titans is a longshot at six-to-one, with his role increasing and the Browns playing coverages that align with Helm's strengths.

The second-order implication of this detailed player-by-player analysis is the evolution of sports betting from simple team-based wagers to highly specific player proposition bets. This shift emphasizes individual player performance and matchup dynamics, requiring a deeper statistical and situational understanding than traditional betting. The consistent mention of "value" and "odds" underscores the core objective: identifying discrepancies between implied probability from odds and the experts' projected probability of a player scoring. This strategy aims to exploit market inefficiencies, suggesting that consistently successful betting relies on a granular approach that goes beyond the surface-level narratives of NFL games.

The strategy also highlights the importance of monitoring injury reports and practice participation, as seen with the discussion around Dalton Kincaid and Dawson Knox for the Bills-Bengals game. The uncertainty surrounding injuries leads to a pivot strategy, demonstrating the dynamic nature of betting and the need for real-time adjustments. The repeated emphasis on "value" and projecting odds lower than the listed ones reinforces the core premise: finding players whose scoring probability is significantly higher than what the betting market suggests.

Ultimately, the "so what" is that by dissecting individual matchups, player usage, and statistical trends, bettors can identify specific players who are undervalued in the anytime touchdown scorer market. This granular approach, as demonstrated throughout the episode, offers a strategic advantage for those looking to profit from NFL betting by focusing on precise player-level opportunities rather than broad game outcomes.

Action Items

  • Track 5-10 high-variance events per game (fumble recoveries, special teams plays) to measure outcome impact.
  • Measure player performance disconnect: For 3-5 players, calculate correlation between target share and expected touchdowns.
  • Audit tight end usage: For 3-5 teams, analyze route run rate vs. red zone targets to identify underutilized assets.
  • Evaluate quarterback scramble rate: For 3-5 quarterbacks, measure scramble rate increase when under pressure to assess adaptability.

Related Episodes

Key Quotes

"although it does sound like you know jayden daniels could return this week uh so that's going to be huge but for the commanders side i'm gonna go with jalin brooks at plus 825 and i'm kicking myself because i nearly went with him uh last week for monday night football but just the wide receiver situation is such a mess i didn't have a good handle on who was going to play but sure enough brooks scored and he um you know he saw healthy routes run rate at 71 made that amazing touchdown grab and we have to remember you know he was a first round pick just a few years ago he's just missed a ton of time due to injuries so he might you know turn out as you know solid wide receiver we'll see but i think the commanders will kind of want to see what they have in him going forward so i think he'll be out there for most three wide receiver sets so um i'm projecting him closer to plus 680 here and that's with mariota projected in so i think if you know jayden daniels plays that probably could only helps him uh so i like brooks here at plus 825"

Sean Koerner highlights Jalin Brooks as a value pick due to his potential increased playing time and previous first-round draft status. Koerner notes that Brooks scored last week and maintained a high routes run rate, suggesting he could be a solid receiver if he stays healthy. He believes Brooks will be featured in three-wide receiver sets, potentially benefiting from a returning Jalen Daniels.

"on the jags side i'm going right back to trevor lawrence uh five rushing touchdowns this year uh similar to warren uh very much being used in short yardage situations near the goal line no leg injuries as far as we know compared to daniel jones um one of the things too this is really encouraging about trevor lawrence third amongst all quarterbacks in carries inside the five yard line this season with three rushing touchdowns so that's basically jalen hurts josh allen and then you got trevor lawrence like right after that so i think the colts um they're going to be able to get after uh lawrence their top five in pressure rate for drop back like most quarterbacks his scramble rate does go up when he is pressured i think there's also potential of a dpi in the end zone i was looking it up and the colts so far are bottom five in defensive pass interference penalties this year with four of them being in the end zone so i think there's a chance that we could get trevor lawrence with a little bit of a tush push as well"

Joe Gallant emphasizes Trevor Lawrence as a strong bet for a touchdown, pointing to his five rushing touchdowns this season and significant usage in short-yardage situations. Gallant highlights Lawrence's ranking among quarterbacks for carries inside the five-yard line, placing him alongside elite players like Jalen Hurts and Josh Allen. He also suggests potential for a touchdown via a defensive pass interference penalty in the end zone, noting the Colts' high rate of such penalties.

"on the other side going with rashid shaheed at three to one atlanta allows the highest average up to target defensively in the league so this is a time where they can look deep to shaheed and remember him and koby bryant are familiar with that atlanta defense from their time together in new orleans so this could be i know shaheed's been really quiet just running wind sprints out there cardio king in it but this could be a time where they actually look to get him a couple of those deep targets and sneak up on everybody so i like him at three to one"

The presenter suggests Rashid Shaheed as a potential touchdown scorer at three to one odds. The presenter notes that the Atlanta Falcons' defense gives up the highest average depth of target in the league, creating an opportunity for deep passes to Shaheed. Additionally, the presenter points out that Shaheed and teammate Koby Bryant have familiarity with the Falcons' defense from their time with the New Orleans Saints, which could be an advantage.

"but i think the bills what they've been really good at doing is taking out certain wide receiver ones and just kind of bracket or doubling them and if that's the case i think there's just going to be more one on one matchups for higgins and he can win them in those matchups so at plus 185 if you're going to give me a receiver of his talent i'm taking that almost every time with burrow back in the lineup"

The presenter argues that T. Higgins is a strong bet at plus 185, especially with Joe Burrow returning as quarterback. The presenter explains that the Bills' defensive strategy often involves bracket coverage or doubling opposing wide receiver ones. This tactic, the presenter believes, will create more one-on-one opportunities for Higgins, allowing him to exploit favorable matchups.

"on the cardinal side right now i'm seeing trey mcbride at plus 150 at draftkings i don't know if i can pass on him at that price because usually he's been around like ever since jakobi priesett has taken over he's around plus 110 plus 120 so when i'm getting plus 150 that's when i feel like we're in the sweet spot he's just been a monster for touchdown props i feel like we've given him a bet out now probably in three of the last four shows eight touchdowns this year seven just in the games with jakobi priesett -- scored in six of the seven games with priesett at quarterback easily leads the team with 21 red zone targets but i think i know it's a tougher matchup because like right now the rams they're number second number two rather in defensive dvoa versus tight ends but honestly they just they force feed him 10 plus targets every game when he's out there so i think trey mcbride rather is the guy we want on the cardinal side"

The presenter identifies Trey McBride as a valuable bet at plus 150, noting this price is higher than his usual odds since Jacoby Brissett took over as quarterback. The presenter highlights McBride's consistent touchdown production, with seven touchdowns in the games Brissett has started and a team-leading 21 red zone targets. Despite a tough matchup against the Rams' defense, the presenter believes McBride's high target volume makes him a strong play.

"i'm gonna go with kamani vidal here at plus 310 i think you know we might get some amarien hampton back we'll see how that goes but hardbaugh hinted at kamani vidal remaining the top back even when hampton returns he said you know his physical style tickles him or something like that like that's something weird that i'm not even gonna repeat but that's pretty good news for kamani vidal and this eagles pass defense as you alluded to jill it's not easy so they have been a little vulnerable against the run on paper at weaker more of a run funnel you know number 2

Resources

External Resources

Books

  • "The Action Network Podcast" by Chris Raybon, Sean Koerner, and Joe Gallant - Mentioned as the source of the discussion on NFL touchdown betting.

Articles & Papers

  • "Anytime Touchdown Preview" - Published every Sunday morning by Joe Gallant, discussed as a source for betting recommendations.

People

  • Chris Raybon - Host of The Action Network Sports Betting Podcast.
  • Sean Koerner - Guest on The Action Network Sports Betting Podcast, described as one of the most accurate rankers.
  • Joe Gallant - Guest on The Action Network Sports Betting Podcast, described as a touchdown savant.
  • RJ Harvey - Mentioned as a player who scored a touchdown.
  • Brock Bowers - Mentioned as a player who scored a touchdown.
  • Josh Allen - Mentioned as a player who scored a touchdown.
  • Trey McBride - Mentioned as a player who scored a touchdown.
  • Blake Corum - Mentioned as a player who scored a touchdown.
  • Romeo Doubs - Mentioned as a player who scored a touchdown.
  • Jahan Dotson - Mentioned as a player who scored a touchdown.
  • Harold Fannin - Mentioned as a player who scored a touchdown.
  • AJ Brown - Mentioned as a player who scored a touchdown.
  • Christian Watson - Mentioned as a player who scored a touchdown.
  • Jalin Brooks - Mentioned as a player for the Commanders with touchdown potential.
  • Mariota - Mentioned as a projected quarterback for the Commanders.
  • Jayden Daniels - Mentioned as a potential returning quarterback for the Commanders.
  • Josh Oliver - Mentioned as a player for the Vikings with touchdown potential.
  • Max Borger - Mentioned in relation to quarterback performance.
  • J.J. McCarthy - Mentioned as a player for the Vikings.
  • Tyler Warren - Mentioned as a player for the Colts with touchdown potential.
  • Trevor Lawrence - Mentioned as a player for the Jaguars with touchdown potential.
  • Daniel Jones - Mentioned in relation to leg injury and quarterback play.
  • Deonte Valet - Mentioned as a player for the Saints with touchdown potential.
  • Chris Olave - Mentioned as a co-number one receiver for the Saints.
  • Mason Tipton - Mentioned as a player in three-wide receiver sets for the Saints.
  • Vita Vea - Mentioned in relation to the Buccaneers' defense.
  • Mike Evans - Mentioned as a player for the Buccaneers.
  • Cade Otton - Mentioned as a player for the Buccaneers.
  • Sean Tucker - Mentioned in relation to a breakout game for the Buccaneers.
  • Buckner - Mentioned as a player for the Buccaneers with goal-line carries.
  • A.D. Mitchell - Mentioned as a player for the Jets with touchdown potential.
  • Tyrod Taylor - Mentioned as a quarterback for the Jets.
  • Malik Washington - Mentioned as a player for the Dolphins with touchdown potential.
  • Jaylen Wright - Mentioned in comparison to Malik Washington.
  • Wesberg Kina - Mentioned as a player for the Dolphins.
  • Cedric Wilson - Mentioned as a player for the Dolphins.
  • Gunner Helm - Mentioned as a rookie tight end for the Titans with touchdown potential.
  • Chig Okonkwo - Mentioned in relation to snap counts for the Titans.
  • Kyle Pitts - Mentioned as a player for the Falcons with touchdown potential.
  • Bijan Robinson - Mentioned as a player for the Falcons.
  • Tyler Allgeier - Mentioned as a player for the Falcons.
  • Drake London - Mentioned as a potential option for the Falcons.
  • Rashid Shaheed - Mentioned as a player for the Seahawks with deep target potential.
  • Kobe Bryant - Mentioned in relation to familiarity with the Atlanta defense.
  • Devonte's Walker - Mentioned as a player for the Ravens with touchdown potential.
  • Tylan Wallace - Mentioned as a healthy scratch for the Ravens.
  • Roman Wilson - Mentioned as a player for the Steelers with touchdown potential.
  • Adam Thielen - Mentioned as a player recently brought in by the Steelers.
  • Calvin Austin - Mentioned in relation to Steelers snaps.
  • Dalton Kincaid - Mentioned as a player for the Bills with touchdown potential, with a knee injury.
  • Isaiah Likely - Mentioned in relation to a dropped pass.
  • Dawson Knox - Mentioned as a player for the Bills to pivot to if Kincaid is out.
  • T. Higgins - Mentioned as a player for the Bengals expected to return from a concussion.
  • Joe Burrow - Mentioned as the quarterback for the Bengals.
  • Jamar Chase - Mentioned as a player for the Bengals with end zone targets.
  • Troy Franklin - Mentioned as a player for the Broncos with touchdown potential.
  • Courtland Sutton - Mentioned in relation to Troy Franklin's targets.
  • Austin Ekeler - Mentioned as a player for the Raiders with touchdown potential.
  • Luther Burden III - Mentioned as a player for the Bears with touchdown potential.
  • D Rome Odunze - Mentioned as a player for the Bears who might miss practice.
  • Josh Wiley - Mentioned as a player for the Packers with touchdown potential.
  • Tucker Craft - Mentioned as being out for the season for the Packers.
  • David Montgomery - Mentioned in relation to the Bears' running back situation.
  • Trey McBride - Mentioned as a player for the Cardinals with touchdown potential.
  • Jakobi Priesett - Mentioned as the quarterback for the Cardinals.
  • Tutu Ferguson - Mentioned as a player for the Rams with touchdown potential.
  • Demarcus Robinson - Mentioned in relation to the Rams' wide receiver room.
  • Puka Nacua - Mentioned as a player for the Rams.
  • Kyren Williams - Mentioned as a player for the Rams.
  • Cooper Kupp - Mentioned as a player for the Rams.
  • Davis Allen - Mentioned as a player for the Rams with touchdown potential.
  • Michael Wilson - Mentioned as a player for the Cardinals with touchdown potential.
  • Marvin Harrison Jr. - Mentioned as a player for the Cardinals who might miss practice.
  • Greg Dortch - Mentioned as a player for the Cardinals who is banged up.
  • Jaden Higgins - Mentioned as a player for the Texans with touchdown potential.
  • Nico Collins - Mentioned as a player for the Texans.
  • Woody Marks - Mentioned as a player for the Texans with touchdown potential.
  • Nick Chubb - Mentioned in relation to carries for the Texans.
  • Noah Gray - Mentioned as a player for the Chiefs with touchdown potential.
  • Travis Kelce - Mentioned as a player for the Chiefs.
  • Dallas Goedert - Mentioned as a player for the Eagles with touchdown potential.
  • A.J. Brown - Mentioned as a player for the Eagles.
  • Keenan Allen - Mentioned as a player for the Chargers with touchdown potential.
  • Ladd McConkey - Mentioned as a player for the Chargers.
  • Quentin Johnston - Mentioned as a player for the Chargers.
  • Quentin Mitchell - Mentioned in relation to the Chargers' wide receiver situation.
  • Kamani Vidal - Mentioned as a player for the Chargers with touchdown potential.
  • Ahmarien Hampton - Mentioned as a player for the Chargers who might return.

Organizations & Institutions

  • The Action Network - Mentioned as the provider of the podcast and app.
  • DraftKings - Sponsor of The Action Network Podcast, offering a new customer promotion.
  • NFL (National Football League) - The primary subject of the podcast episode.
  • Commanders - Mentioned in relation to the Washington Commanders.
  • Vikings - Mentioned in relation to the Minnesota Vikings.
  • Colts - Mentioned in relation to the Indianapolis Colts.
  • Jaguars - Mentioned in relation to the Jacksonville Jaguars.
  • Saints - Mentioned in relation to the New Orleans Saints.
  • Buccaneers - Mentioned in relation to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
  • Jets - Mentioned in relation to the New York Jets.
  • Dolphins - Mentioned in relation to the Miami Dolphins.
  • Titans - Mentioned in relation to the Tennessee Titans.
  • Browns - Mentioned in relation to the Cleveland Browns.
  • Seahawks - Mentioned in relation to the Seattle Seahawks.
  • Falcons - Mentioned in relation to the Atlanta Falcons.
  • Steelers - Mentioned in relation to the Pittsburgh Steelers.
  • Ravens - Mentioned in relation to the Baltimore Ravens.
  • Bengals - Mentioned in relation to the Cincinnati Bengals.
  • Bills - Mentioned in relation to the Buffalo Bills.
  • Broncos - Mentioned in relation to the Denver Broncos.
  • Raiders - Mentioned in relation to the Las Vegas Raiders.
  • Bears - Mentioned in relation to the Chicago Bears.
  • Packers - Mentioned in relation to the Green Bay Packers.
  • Cardinals - Mentioned in relation to the Arizona Cardinals.
  • Rams - Mentioned in relation to the Los Angeles Rams.
  • Texans - Mentioned in relation to the Houston Texans.
  • Chiefs - Mentioned in relation to the Kansas City Chiefs.
  • Eagles - Mentioned in relation to the Philadelphia Eagles.
  • Chargers - Mentioned in relation to the Los Angeles Chargers.
  • PFF (Pro Football Focus) - Mentioned as a data source.
  • Ulta Beauty - Mentioned in a promotional segment.
  • Charlotte Tilbury - Mentioned in relation to gift sets.
  • Peachy Keen - Mentioned in relation to gift sets.
  • YSL - Mentioned in relation to fragrances.
  • Ariana Grande - Mentioned in relation to fragrances.
  • Carolina Herrera - Mentioned in relation to fragrances.
  • Action Network Discord - Mentioned as a place to chat with experts.
  • Action Pro - Mentioned as a service for instant notifications and projections.
  • Acast - Mentioned as the host for the podcast.
  • Fireball - Mentioned in relation to a new flavor.

Websites & Online Resources

  • rotogrinders.com - Mentioned with a promotional link.
  • discord.gg/action-network-1042970482405806190 - Mentioned as the Action Network

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