Identifying Anytime Touchdown Scorer Value Through Player Matchups and Motivation

The Action Network Sports Betting Podcast · December 24, 2025 · Listen to Original Episode →

Original Title:

TL;DR

George Pickens is a strong anytime touchdown bet against the Cowboys due to his high motivation for a new contract and potential increased targets if other Steelers receivers are injured.
Amon-Ra St. Brown presents a favorable anytime touchdown opportunity against the Vikings, who often play zone and allow targets to receivers in such coverages.
Jordan Addison is a viable anytime touchdown pick against the Lions, who have allowed numerous touchdowns to wide receivers and struggle against deep passes.
Trayvon Burks is a sneaky anytime touchdown bet for the Commanders, as injuries to other receivers may increase his playing time and opportunity.
Isaiah Pacheco is a recommended anytime touchdown scorer for the Chiefs, given his increased workload and potential to capitalize on opportunities against the Broncos.
Bo Nix is a strong anytime touchdown candidate for the Broncos, as the Chiefs defense has been susceptible to rushing touchdowns from opposing quarterbacks.
Mark Andrews offers value as an anytime touchdown scorer for the Ravens, even with potential backup quarterback play, due to his high red zone route rate.

Deep Dive

The NFL Action Network Sports Betting Podcast's "Touchdown Show" for Week 17 focuses on identifying value in anytime touchdown scorer markets across a slate of games marked by backup quarterbacks and potentially uninspired matchups. The core implication for bettors is that while many games feature uncertainty, strategic identification of players with consistent targets, favorable matchups against vulnerable defenses, or those playing for future contracts can yield profitable opportunities, particularly when leveraging parlay bets.

The analysis of individual games reveals several second-order implications for player performance and betting strategy. For instance, the focus on George Pickens in the Cowboys-Commanders game highlights how players motivated by upcoming contract negotiations can maintain high performance even when their team is out of playoff contention, suggesting that player motivation is a crucial factor beyond team stakes. Similarly, the repeated emphasis on specific wide receivers and tight ends facing defenses with known weaknesses in coverage against those positions--such as the Vikings' zone coverage against Amon-Ra St. Brown or the Lions' vulnerability to deep balls against Jordan Addison--underscores the importance of exploiting defensive schematic flaws. The discussion around Treylon Burks and Jordan Addison, despite potential quarterback uncertainty, implies that a player's route participation and target share can be more predictive of scoring potential than the quarterback's reliability, especially at favorable odds. The podcast also implicitly suggests that understanding coaching tendencies, such as the Titans' tendency to scheme touches for players like Derrick Henry after a coaching change, can uncover overlooked value. The strategy of betting on players like Mark Andrews, even with quarterback uncertainty, signifies a belief that elite talent can overcome some level of situational disadvantage, especially when offered at significant odds. Furthermore, the repeated mention of players who have seen their usage increase, like Kareem Hunt on the Titans or Zach Baes on the Raiders, points to a dynamic where evolving roles and increasing playing time can signal future scoring opportunities. The podcast's approach to identifying value in players like A.D. Mitchell and Hunter Henry against historically poor cornerback matchups reinforces the principle that defensive metrics, specifically DVOA against certain positions, are key indicators for identifying favorable player props.

Ultimately, the "Touchdown Show" implies that successful weekly touchdown scorer betting requires a granular understanding of individual player usage, matchup-specific defensive vulnerabilities, and player-specific motivations, all of which can be combined with parlay strategies to amplify potential returns, especially in games with high uncertainty.

Action Items

Audit player performance metrics: Track 3-5 key statistical categories for 10-15 players to identify variance between expected and actual outcomes.
Create a predictive model: Develop a model to forecast player touchdown probability based on historical data and matchup-specific factors (e.g., opponent's defensive tendencies).
Analyze game script impact: Quantify how trailing or leading game scripts affect player target share and usage for 5-7 key offensive players.
Evaluate coaching tendencies: Document specific play-calling patterns and red zone usage for 3-5 coaches to identify exploitable strategic biases.

Key Quotes

"I am absolutely going right back to George Pickens he's my pick for the Cowboys here um like you mentioned you know he had a massive seven catch 130 yards touchdown game last week uh again you know the Cowboys unfortunately they're eliminated but he still has a ton to play for these last couple weeks uh you know he's playing for that massive uh contract he's expected to sign in the off season so I think he's going to keep it rolling here plus you know both Ryan Flornoy and Kavante Turpin are both banged up and iffy so you know this is a shorter week one or two of those guys might mess which just could be a boost to Pickens specifically um so love getting him here anything plus money really"

Sean Koerner is recommending George Pickens as a touchdown scorer, highlighting his strong performance in the previous week and his motivation to secure a significant contract. Koerner believes Pickens will continue his success due to potential injuries to other wide receivers on his team, which could increase his target share.

"On the Vikings side I'm gonna go with Jordan Addison again I know it's yucky with Max Brozmer at quarterback but Lions they've allowed 20 touchdowns to wide receivers this year bottom eight versus the deep ball I think that applies to Addison here in this spot you know he could be lining for some jet sweeps near the goal line I think they're going to probably be in a trailing game script so I want wide receivers with upside that could score even just on one throw so Jordan Addison he's around plus 270 that's who I like on the Vikings side"

Gilles Gallant is selecting Jordan Addison as a touchdown scorer, acknowledging the uncertainty at quarterback but focusing on the Lions' defensive weakness against wide receivers and deep passes. Gallant suggests Addison's potential involvement in jet sweeps and the likelihood of a trailing game script for the Vikings could lead to scoring opportunities.

"For the Bengals run with T Higgins yeah I mean this guy just scores it every single week when he's on the field Joe Burrow's just looked a lot better throwing the football and for the Cardinals let's go with Trey McBride you know he has been a monster this year finally scoring touchdowns and in this matchup I mean it's the Bengals it's tailor made for Trey McBride the best tight end going up against the best tight end matchup so Higgins McBride Cardinals Bengals"

The podcast hosts are highlighting T. Higgins as a strong touchdown scorer for the Bengals, noting his consistent scoring when healthy and Joe Burrow's improved passing. They are also recommending Trey McBride for the Cardinals, emphasizing his recent touchdown production and favorable matchup against the Bengals' tight end defense.

"On the Packers side it might even be more iffy because I'm not sure if Jordan Love is gonna play either given the concussion issue and just again the short week so whether if it's Malik Willis or even Clayton Tune I want short range targets with high routes run rate and that's Luke Musgrave right now he's the last tight end standing our guy John Fitz Patrick now out for the year unfortunately Josh Wiley's dealing with an injury um and I I feel like at least if you're betting Musgrave like you're getting a guy where there's not a lot of position uncertainty like with all the moving parts with Packers wide receivers it's really hard to pinpoint who has like the best matchup best value in that spot whereas at least you know Musgrave he is the guy a tight end one and you're getting plus 400 or better"

Joe Gola is recommending Luke Musgrave as a touchdown scorer for the Packers, citing the uncertainty at quarterback and the potential absence of other key players. Gola prefers Musgrave due to his consistent role as the primary tight end and the favorable odds, despite the overall instability of the Packers' receiving options.

"On the other side you know Genty is now you know looks like he's minus 110 so you know not going to go with him here I'm going to go with their second round rookie Zach Besh at you know right around plus 450 here but he continues to see you know an increase in playing time usage and close out the season which makes a ton of sense but Tyler Locket got banged up so you know Besh's usage could go up even more here and he's you know a solid rookie kind of profiles as like a smaller tight end so it's kind of surprising he hasn't scored yet so I think now's a good time to kind of buy low on him so I'll take you know the rookie here Besh at plus 450"

Sean Koerner is selecting Zach Besh as a touchdown scorer for the Raiders, noting the unfavorable odds for another player, Darren Waller. Koerner is betting on Besh's increasing playing time and usage, especially with a potential injury to Tyler Lockett, and sees him as a valuable "buy low" option due to his lack of a touchdown so far.

Resources

External Resources

Books

"Waterworld" - Mentioned as the subject of the "What Went Wrong" podcast.

Articles & Papers

"NFL Week 17's slate is a toss up with some ugly matchups and backup QBs so it should be a fun one!" (The Action Network Sports Betting Podcast) - Mentioned as the context for discussing touchdown scorer parlays.
"The NFL touchdown crew is BACK!" (The Action Network Sports Betting Podcast) - Mentioned as the introduction to the episode's discussion.

People

Chris Raybon - Host of The Action Network Sports Betting Podcast.
Sean Koerner - Guest on The Action Network Sports Betting Podcast, sports betting expert.
Gilles Gallant - Guest on The Action Network Sports Betting Podcast.
George Pickens - Mentioned as a player with a strong performance and contract motivation.
Trayvon Burks - Mentioned as a player with potential due to injury situations.
Amon-Ra St. Brown - Mentioned as a player with a favorable matchup against zone coverage.
Jordan Addison - Mentioned as a player with upside in a potentially trailing game script.
Isaiah Pacheco - Mentioned as a player receiving increased work and touchdown potential.
Bo Nix - Mentioned as a quarterback with a good shot to score against a defense giving up rushing touchdowns.
Jaden Hagens - Mentioned as a player whose playing time is increasing, with potential for more targets.
Amari Hamptons - Mentioned as a potential lead back due to injury concerns for another player.
Mark Andrews - Mentioned as a tight end with a high red zone route run rate and receiving touchdowns.
Luke Musgrave - Mentioned as a tight end with a favorable matchup and potential for targets.
Jackson Smith-Njigba - Mentioned as a player who has been performing well.
Jaylen Koker - Mentioned as a player who has been improving and is in a favorable spot.
Parker Washington - Mentioned as a player who continues to produce when healthy and has reclaimed a full-time role.
Alec Pierce - Mentioned as a player who is worth a flyer due to upside and a quarterback willing to throw deep.
Kareem Hunt - Mentioned as a player with significant touchdown production and increased role since a coaching change.
Taysom Hill - Mentioned as a player in a great matchup with a weak run defense and potential for goal-line carries.
T. Higgins - Mentioned as a player who scores frequently when on the field.
Trey McBride - Mentioned as a tight end with a strong matchup against a defense that allows tight end touchdowns.
Pat Freiermuth - Mentioned as a potential sneaky play due to injuries at wide receiver and a buy-low opportunity.
Jerome Sanders - Mentioned as a potential lead back and goal-line back due to injuries.
Ad Mitchell - Mentioned as a wide receiver one with a favorable matchup against a defense weak against that position.
Hunter Henry - Mentioned as a player with a great matchup against a defense that allows many touchdowns to tight ends.
Jaylen Waddle - Mentioned as a top receiver for his team when another key player is injured.
Chris Godwin - Mentioned as a player with a good matchup and a solid usage rate.
Isaiah Hagens - Mentioned as a player who was out there for a significant percentage of snaps despite a poor previous performance.
Zach Besh - Mentioned as a rookie who is seeing increased playing time and usage, with potential for more opportunities.
Jalen Hurts - Mentioned as a player with a favorable matchup against a defense that allows many rushing touchdowns.
Ty Johnson - Mentioned as a player who is typically used in trailing game scripts.
Luther Burden III - Mentioned as a player expected to be a stud in the league, with a favorable matchup.
Colson Loveland - Mentioned as a potential pivot if another player is ruled out.
Janai Walker - Mentioned as a player who finally scored a touchdown and looked good in the preseason.
Jake Tongus - Mentioned as a potential replacement for an injured player, with a history of scoring touchdowns in the absence of another player.
Jauan Jennings - Mentioned as a player on the same page with his quarterback in the red zone and scoring frequently.
Blake Corum - Mentioned as a backup running back who is mixing in more and has scored multiple touchdowns recently.
Kyle Pitts - Mentioned as a player who has scored multiple touchdowns recently and is seeing an increased target rate.
Drake London - Mentioned as a player who has scored multiple touchdowns in prior games and is expected to be on the field a lot.

Organizations

DK Metcalf - Mentioned in relation to a touchdown.
Dallas Cowboys - Mentioned in relation to a game matchup.
Washington Commanders - Mentioned in relation to a game matchup.
Tennessee Titans - Mentioned in relation to a game matchup and a rare win.
New Orleans Saints - Mentioned in relation to a game matchup.
Arizona Cardinals - Mentioned in relation to a game matchup.
Cincinnati Bengals - Mentioned in relation to a game matchup.
Pittsburgh Steelers - Mentioned in relation to a game matchup.
Cleveland Browns - Mentioned in relation to a game matchup.
New York Jets - Mentioned in relation to a game matchup.
New England Patriots - Mentioned in relation to a game matchup.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Mentioned in relation to a game matchup.
Miami Dolphins - Mentioned in relation to a game matchup.
New York Giants - Mentioned in relation to a game matchup.
Las Vegas Raiders - Mentioned in relation to a game matchup.
Philadelphia Eagles - Mentioned in relation to a game matchup.
Buffalo Bills - Mentioned in relation to a game matchup.
Chicago Bears - Mentioned in relation to a game matchup and a division bet.
San Francisco 49ers - Mentioned in relation to a game matchup.
Atlanta Falcons - Mentioned in relation to a game matchup.
Los Angeles Rams - Mentioned in relation to a game matchup.
DraftKings - Mentioned as a sponsor and for offering odds and promotions.
Action Network - Mentioned as the presenter of the podcast and for its app and services.
Action Network Discord - Mentioned as a place to chat with experts and gamblers.
Action Pro - Mentioned as a service for instant notifications and projections.
Acast - Mentioned as a platform that powers podcasts.
Nitza - Mentioned as a sponsor for safe ride home messaging.
Valvoline Instant Oil Change - Mentioned as a sponsor for oil changes.
Zyn - Mentioned as a nicotine pouch brand.

Websites & Online Resources

Action Network App - Mentioned for signing up for Action Pro and accessing features.
Actionnetwork.com/betnow - Mentioned for quick slip links to bets.
Actionnetwork.com/pricing - Mentioned for signing up for Action Pro.
Actionnetwork.com/pro - Mentioned for signing up for Action Pro and using a promo code.
acast.com/privacy - Mentioned for privacy information.
acast.com - Mentioned as a platform for creators.

Podcasts & Audio

The Action Network Sports Betting Podcast - The primary podcast being discussed.
In the Loop - Mentioned as a recommended podcast about commercial real estate.
What Went Wrong - Mentioned as a podcast dedicated to analyzing Hollywood's flops and successes.

Other Resources

Anytime Touchdowns - Mentioned as a type of bet and a focus of the podcast episode.
Quick Slip - Mentioned as a feature for easily tailing bets.
Parlay Express - Mentioned as an account in the Action Network app for longer shot parlays.
AI Quick Slip Bot on X - Mentioned as a tool for creating quick slip links.