Fantasy Premier League: Fixture Chasing and Midfielder Rotation Strategy - Episode Hero Image

Fantasy Premier League: Fixture Chasing and Midfielder Rotation Strategy

The 59th Minute FPL Podcast · · Listen to Original Episode →
Original Title:

TL;DR

  • Prioritizing players with strong "defensive contributions" (def cons) like Schär, Senesi, and Fofana enables teams to accumulate points even without clean sheets, mitigating the risk of late goals wiping out clean sheet bonuses.
  • Focusing on midfielders with high "expected goal involvement" (xGI), such as Harry Wilson and Matheus Cunha, provides a more reliable indicator of future attacking returns than relying solely on recent goal-scoring form.
  • Identifying players on four yellow cards, like Semenyo and Nico Williams, requires careful consideration of fixture difficulty and team defensive strength, as suspensions can disrupt long-term planning.
  • Evaluating players like Eze and Harry Wilson based on their recent "attacking returns" and fixture runs allows for short-term tactical transfers, but long-term "set and forget" midfielders like Saka, Foden, and Bruno Fernandes should be retained.
  • The "expected goals conceded" (xGC) metric for Nottingham Forest suggests their defense is improving, making players like Ni. Williams and Savana viable options from Gameweek 19 onwards, especially against weaker opposition.
  • When considering captaincy, Erling Haaland's home fixture against West Ham presents a clear "no-brainer" due to his proven multi-goal potential, while Phil Foden offers a strong alternative with consistent recent form.
  • For budget-friendly goalkeepers, Robert Sánchez and K. R. R. Ødegaard are preferable to Robert Sánchez due to their teams' better long-term clean sheet prospects and consistent performances.

Deep Dive

Gameweek 17 of the Fantasy Premier League season presents a tactical crossroads, emphasizing fixture chasing and strategic chip usage over long-term asset holding. The current landscape favors dynamic transfers to capitalize on favorable matchups, particularly for midfielders, while also highlighting the need to plan for upcoming blank gameweeks and the potential for player rotations.

The immediate focus for managers is on exploiting strong fixtures, with Bournemouth's home tie against Burnley and Liverpool's visit from Wolves being highlighted. While Bournemouth's offensive assets like Semenyo and Wilson are attractive for short-term gains, the prevailing sentiment leans towards prioritizing Liverpool's attackers against Wolves in Gameweek 18, suggesting a potential free hit strategy for that later gameweek. This approach underscores a shift towards prioritizing immediate point potential derived from specific matchups, rather than maintaining a stable core of players.

Second-order implications emerge regarding player valuation and transfer strategy. Players like Eze and Harry Wilson are currently experiencing a surge in popularity due to recent high returns, prompting questions about whether to chase these points. The advice given is to be cautious, avoiding selling established premium midfielders like Saka, Foden, and Bruno Fernandes to acquire Eze, while acknowledging that players like Wilson can offer short-term upside. This indicates a tension between the desire for immediate gains from in-form players and the stability offered by consistent performers. Furthermore, the discussion around midfielders like Cherki and Kunya suggests that differential picks, who are less owned due to managers already investing in popular premium options, can offer significant advantages if their fixtures align. This implies that successful FPL management in this period requires a fine balance between owning widely held strong assets and strategically incorporating less common, fixture-dependent players.

The conversation also touches upon defensive considerations, with Nottingham Forest's defense being flagged as a potential entry point in Gameweek 19, despite their upcoming difficult fixture against Manchester City. This suggests a forward-thinking approach, planning for future favorable matchups even when current options appear less appealing. Ultimately, the advice emphasizes flexibility, advocating for the use of chips like free hits to maximize points in specific gameweeks and for midfielders to be treated as flexible assets that can be rotated based on form and fixtures.

Action Items

  • Audit player minutes: Track 3-5 midfielders for consistent 90-minute performances to identify reliable starters.
  • Create transfer strategy: Plan for fixture chasing by identifying 2-3 target midfielders for short-term gains.
  • Measure midfielder impact: Calculate expected goal involvement (xGI) for 3-5 midfielders to assess underlying performance.
  • Evaluate player form: Analyze recent attacking returns for 3-5 players to identify unsustainable hot streaks.
  • Track yellow card accumulation: Monitor 5-10 players on four yellow cards to anticipate potential suspensions.

Related Episodes

Key Quotes

"gameweek 17 is coming up this weekend there's also efl cup action midweek with chelsea man city brentford newcastle and fulham all in action it's a saturday deadline this week 11 00 am uk time this episode will follow the usual structure a gameweek review player shout outs a look at stats def cons the watch list update listener questions captaincy and transfers"

Mark McGedigan, the host, outlines the structure of the podcast episode, indicating that it will cover a review of the previous gameweek, highlight specific players, analyze statistics, discuss potential transfers, and address captaincy choices. This structure suggests a comprehensive approach to Fantasy Premier League strategy for the upcoming gameweek.

"i used four of them got rid of nick pope daniel james minteh and mitoma and thankfully none of those players punished brought in david raya o'riley from manchester city saiss and jared bowen looks like saiss might have picked up an injury so need to keep an eye on that one later in the week could be a swift exit for saiss"

Mark McGedigan details his recent transfer activity, explaining that he utilized four of his free transfers to remove specific players and bring in new ones, including David Raya, O'Riley, Saiss, and Jared Bowen. He notes a potential injury concern for Saiss, indicating a possible quick turnaround for that transfer.

"elsewhere bruno fernandes what a couple of games he's had 13 points there brennan johnson blanks and he will be sold this week for straight in he's done nothing in a four goal game for manchester united saiss three pointer phil foden again what a season he's having last four five gameweeks another 11 pointer i think he had a def con again somehow up front blanks for thiago question about him later jared bowen with eight defensively raya timber a very painful late clean sheet wipeout but pretty happy with those two going forward"

Mark McGedigan reviews the performance of several players from the previous gameweek, noting positive returns from Bruno Fernandes and Phil Foden, while identifying Brennan Johnson and Thiago as players who underperformed. He also comments on the defensive contributions of Raya and Timber, despite a late setback.

"mateus kunya he had really good numbers in gameweek 15 and he backed it up again in gameweek 16 this time it was eight goal attempts five of them coming from inside the box and of course he got himself on the score sheet so kunya could be a direct replacement for imbula but there's a couple of others i'm interested in as well jack grealish had four shots in the box obviously ings headed off to afcon now and dubravka's injured so the onus is going to fall on grealish for attack and returns there"

Mark McGedigan highlights Matheus Cunha's strong performance in consecutive gameweeks, noting his goal attempt statistics and a goal scored in the most recent match. He suggests Cunha as a potential replacement for another player and also points to Jack Grealish as a player who may see increased attacking responsibility due to absences.

"i've added another little section this week which i'll do from now on until we get to gameweek 19 which i think is the cut off players on four yellow cards so you'll always be wary of these players if you're thinking about buying them it usually doesn't put me off and i always we all remembered diogo costa diego costa at chelsea was on four yellow cards forever and ever and he kept scoring goals and we all avoided him so lesson was learned way back then semenyo for example this week is on four yellows but he plays burnley you don't let the yellow card put you off same with saiss last week even though he didn't return anything"

Mark McGedigan introduces a new segment focusing on players who have accumulated four yellow cards, advising listeners to be aware of this potential risk. He uses the example of Diego Costa to illustrate that yellow card accumulation does not necessarily preclude a player from performing well, suggesting that such players should not be automatically avoided.

"first one is from tacoma toffee are there any premium midfielders like saka foden and bruno worth removing to get eze up front and anthony cutler had a question about eze as well what about thiago to eze is that a good transfer so every week when the questions come in it's no surprise what the questions are it's always about the players who have just got big points eze i think has is it 26 points in the last two games harry wilson has turned into rafinha he's playing like barcelona's rafinha at the moment in terms of returns"

Mark McGedigan addresses listener questions regarding potential transfers, specifically focusing on Eze and Harry Wilson, who have recently achieved high point returns. He notes that questions often revolve around players who have just had significant performances, indicating a common trend in fantasy football decision-making.

Resources

External Resources

Books

Videos & Documentaries

Research & Studies

  • Fantasy Football Scout members area - Source for player statistics and analysis.

Tools & Software

Articles & Papers

People

  • Mark McGedigan - Host of The 15th Minute Podcast, content creator known as FPL General.
  • Joe - Collaborator on Fantasy Football Scout YouTube channel.

Organizations & Institutions

  • FFScout - Platform for fantasy football insights and tools.
  • Patreon - Platform for supporting content creators.
  • EFL - English Football League, mentioned in relation to cup action.
  • AFC - Association Football, implied context for football leagues.
  • Premier League - Top-tier English football league.
  • Manchester United - Football club, mentioned in relation to player performance.
  • Arsenal - Football club, mentioned in relation to player performance.
  • Chelsea - Football club, mentioned in relation to player performance and fixtures.
  • Manchester City - Football club, mentioned in relation to player performance and fixtures.
  • Brentford - Football club, mentioned in relation to player performance and fixtures.
  • Fulham - Football club, mentioned in relation to player performance and fixtures.
  • Newcastle - Football club, mentioned in relation to player performance and fixtures.
  • Brighton - Football club, mentioned in relation to player performance and fixtures.
  • Liverpool - Football club, mentioned in relation to player performance and fixtures.
  • Bournemouth - Football club, mentioned in relation to player performance and fixtures.
  • West Ham - Football club, mentioned in relation to player performance and fixtures.
  • Everton - Football club, mentioned in relation to player performance and fixtures.
  • Crystal Palace - Football club, mentioned in relation to player performance.
  • Wolves - Football club, mentioned in relation to player performance and fixtures.
  • Burnley - Football club, mentioned in relation to player performance and fixtures.
  • Nottingham Forest - Football club, mentioned in relation to player performance and fixtures.
  • Sunderland - Football club, mentioned in relation to player performance and fixtures.
  • Rangers - Football club, mentioned in relation to player James Tavernier.
  • Celtic - Football club, mentioned in relation to James Tavernier's brother.
  • River Plate - Football club, mentioned in relation to a hypothetical player name.
  • Boca Juniors - Football club, mentioned in relation to a hypothetical player name.
  • UEFA - Union of European Football Associations, implied context for European football.
  • FIFA - Fédération Internationale de Football Association, implied context for global football.
  • FA Cup - Football competition, mentioned in relation to potential injuries.

Courses & Educational Resources

Websites & Online Resources

  • Fantasy Football Scout - Platform for fantasy football insights and tools.
  • YouTube - Video-sharing platform, mentioned for content channels.
  • Blue Sky - Social media platform, mentioned for listener questions.
  • Discord - Communication platform, mentioned for listener questions.
  • X - Social media platform (formerly Twitter), mentioned for listener questions.

Podcasts & Audio

  • The 59th Minute FPL Podcast - Podcast discussed in the episode.
  • Who Got The Assist - Podcast mentioned for a Christmas episode.

Other Resources

  • Fantasy Premier League (FPL) - Fantasy sports game, the primary subject of discussion.
  • Gameweek - A specific round of fixtures in a sports league, particularly FPL.
  • Expected Goals (xG) - A statistical metric used in football analysis.
  • Expected Goals Conceded (xGC) - A statistical metric used in football analysis.
  • Defensive Contributions (Def Con) - A metric used in fantasy football to quantify defensive actions.
  • Bench Boost - A chip or strategy in Fantasy Premier League.
  • Triple Captain - A chip or strategy in Fantasy Premier League.
  • Wild Card - A chip or strategy in Fantasy Premier League.
  • Free Hit - A chip or strategy in Fantasy Premier League.
  • AFCON - Africa Cup of Nations, a football tournament impacting player availability.
  • Last Minute Filter - A feature on the Vrbo app for finding last-minute deals.
  • Private Vacation Rental - Accommodation type offered by Vrbo.
  • High Quality Spirit - Description of Tito's Handmade Vodka.
  • Naturally Gluten Free - Characteristic of Tito's Handmade Vodka.
  • Smooth Martinis - Cocktail type mentioned in relation to Tito's Handmade Vodka.
  • Best Bloody Marys - Cocktail type mentioned in relation to Tito's Handmade Vodka.
  • Nonprofits - Organizations Tito's Handmade Vodka partners with.
  • Dogs - Beneficiaries of Tito's Handmade Vodka's charitable efforts.
  • 40% Alcohol by Volume - Alcohol content of Tito's Handmade Vodka.
  • Holiday Baking - Context for Meyer brown sugar and pie crusts.
  • Spiral Sliced Half Ham - Meyer product mentioned.
  • Yellow or Red Potatoes - Meyer product mentioned.
  • Light Brown Sugar - Meyer product mentioned.
  • Pie Crusts - Meyer product mentioned.
  • Last Minute Deals - Feature on Vrbo.
  • Fresh Mountain Powder - Associated with Vrbo vacation rentals.
  • Epic Pow Freshies - Associated with Vrbo vacation rentals.
  • First Tracks - Associated with Vrbo vacation rentals.
  • Private Vacation Rental - Accommodation type offered by Vrbo.
  • Last Minute Filter - Feature on Vrbo.
  • High Ceiling - Description of Ruvs's potential.
  • Long Term Investment - Consideration for Sanchez.
  • Penalty Heavy Dependent - Characteristic of Thiago's performance.
  • Set and Forget - Description of certain midfielders.
  • Differential - A player not widely owned in fantasy leagues.
  • Rotation Risk - A player's potential to be benched.
  • Cheap Defender - A low-cost defensive player option.
  • Top Scoring Keeper - A goalkeeper with high fantasy points.
  • Derby Victory - Mentioned in relation to Sunderland's win.
  • Fantastic Header - Description of Voltemar's goal.
  • Four Goal Game - Context for Manchester United's performance.
  • Green Arrow - A positive rank movement in fantasy sports.
  • Rank - A player's position in a fantasy sports competition.
  • Roller Coaster - Description of a fantasy sports experience.
  • Triple Captain Saka - A specific fantasy sports strategy.
  • Brace - Scoring two goals in a game.
  • Expected Goal Involvement - A statistical metric.
  • Defensive Contributions - A metric used in fantasy football.
  • Clean Sheet - A game where a team concedes no goals.
  • Yellow Card - A disciplinary caution in football.
  • Injury - A physical ailment affecting a player.
  • Suspension - A ban from playing due to disciplinary reasons.
  • Rotation - The practice of substituting players to manage fatigue or tactics.
  • Fixture - A scheduled match between two teams.
  • Captaincy - The designation of a team captain in fantasy sports.
  • Transfers - Player changes made in fantasy sports.
  • Bench - Players not in the starting lineup in fantasy sports.
  • Starting 11 - The players selected to begin a match.
  • Lone Frontman - A single striker in a team's formation.
  • Free Kick - A set piece awarded for a foul.
  • Assist - A pass that leads directly to a goal.
  • Bonus Points - Additional points awarded in fantasy sports based on performance.
  • Penalty - A direct free kick taken from the penalty spot.
  • Home Fixture - A match played at a team's home stadium.
  • Away Fixture - A match played at an opponent's stadium.
  • Punt - A risky but potentially rewarding transfer in fantasy sports.
  • Bench Boost - A chip that doubles the points of all bench players.
  • Upgrade - A transfer that brings in a higher-rated player.
  • Short Term - A strategy or player considered for a limited duration.
  • Long Term - A strategy or player considered for an extended duration.
  • Asset - A player considered valuable in fantasy sports.
  • Upside - The potential for high performance from a player.
  • Sustainable - A performance level that is likely to continue.
  • Technique - A player's skill and execution.
  • Corner - A set piece awarded when the ball goes out of play over the goal line, last touched by a defender.
  • Starting - Players selected for the initial lineup.
  • Bench - Players not in the starting lineup.
  • Midfielders - Players who play in the middle of the field.
  • Forwards - Players who play in the attacking third of the field.
  • Defenders - Players who play in the defensive part of the field.
  • Goalkeeper - The player whose primary role is to prevent the opposing team from scoring.
  • Minutes Monster - A player who consistently plays the full duration of matches.
  • Chasing Points - Making transfers based on recent high scores.
  • Fixtures - Scheduled matches.
  • Player Shout Outs - Highlighting specific players.
  • Watch List - A list of players being monitored for potential transfers.
  • Listener Questions - Inquiries submitted by podcast listeners.
  • Captaincy - The selection of a team captain for bonus points.
  • Transfers - Player changes made in fantasy sports.
  • Gameweek Review - A summary of past performances.
  • Stats - Statistical data related to player and team performance.
  • Def Cons - Defensive Contributions, a fantasy football metric.
  • Watch List Update - Changes to the list of monitored players.
  • Listener Questions - Inquiries from the audience.
  • Captaincy - The selection of a team captain.
  • Transfers - Player changes.
  • Subscribe - To follow a channel or podcast for updates.
  • Follow - To receive updates from a content creator or platform.
  • Five Star Review - A positive rating for a podcast or content.
  • Full Time FPL Content Creator - A professional dedicated to creating fantasy football content.
  • Gameweek 16 - A specific round of fixtures.
  • Free Transfers - Player changes allowed without penalty.
  • Punished - Negative consequences for not transferring out a player.
  • Swift Exit - A quick removal of a player from a fantasy team.
  • Grandpa Simpson Meme - A cultural reference to a character leaving abruptly.
  • 8-Pointer - A player scoring eight points in fantasy sports.
  • First Appearance - A player's debut in a fantasy squad.
  • Green Arrow - A positive rank movement in fantasy sports.
  • Rank - A player'

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