Prioritize Defenders and Midfielders Over Forwards for FPL Success - Episode Hero Image

Prioritize Defenders and Midfielders Over Forwards for FPL Success

Fantasy Football Scout - FPL Tips · · Listen to Original Episode →
Original Title:

TL;DR

  • Prioritizing defenders with strong defensive contributions (defcon) over attacking metrics is crucial, as consistent clean sheets and defensive actions yield more reliable FPL points than solely relying on expected goal involvement.
  • Investing in Manchester City defenders like O'Riley offers a strong short-term option due to favorable upcoming fixtures, but their long-term appeal diminishes against tougher opposition like Chelsea and Brighton.
  • Chelsea's defense, particularly with Chalobah at a 4.4 million price point, presents a compelling FPL option due to consistent point returns and a solid defensive structure, warranting serious consideration.
  • Midfielders like Bruno Fernandes and Phil Foden should be prioritized for FPL teams, as their consistent high scores and attacking threat make them essential assets over less reliable options.
  • While Harry Wilson offers short-term FPL gains, his potential for sustained high performance is limited, making him a less attractive long-term investment compared to more versatile midfielders.
  • The value of FPL forwards is currently diminished, with midfielders and defenders offering superior returns for their cost, suggesting a strategic shift away from premium forward options.
  • Player availability and fixture congestion during the Christmas period significantly impact FPL team selection, necessitating careful consideration of potential benchings and rotation risks.

Deep Dive

The core of this podcast episode revolves around navigating the complexities of Fantasy Premier League team management during a busy festive fixture period, with a particular focus on identifying optimal player transfers and captaincy choices. The discussion highlights the tension between short-term gains from in-form players and the long-term strategic implications of squad composition, especially as teams prepare for potential absences due to the Africa Cup of Nations and the need to manage player fatigue.

The second-order implications of these decisions are significant. For instance, the debate around Manchester City defenders like O'Reilly underscores how defensive solidity, while appealing for clean sheets, can be overshadowed by a team's inherent tendency to concede chances, impacting long-term value. Similarly, the analysis of midfielders such as Kunya reveals how a player's fantasy appeal can be volatile, subject to tactical shifts, managerial decisions, and the return of other key players, creating uncertainty for owners. The prolonged discussion on forwards like Ekitike and Bowen illustrates a broader trend: the perceived lack of value in forward options compared to midfielders and defenders, forcing managers to prioritize elsewhere or make significant sacrifices to acquire top-tier forwards, thereby shaping the overall structure of fantasy teams. This strategic allocation of budget and transfers directly influences a manager's ability to capitalize on favorable fixtures, mitigate risks associated with player injuries or suspensions, and ultimately, their success in climbing league rankings.

Ultimately, the episode emphasizes that successful fantasy football management requires a forward-looking approach, balancing immediate point-scoring opportunities with the strategic planning needed to navigate a challenging fixture list and player availability issues. The recurring theme is the careful consideration of player form, fixture difficulty, and potential squad changes, all of which compound over the season to determine a manager's overall performance.

Action Items

  • Audit FPL transfer strategy: Analyze 3-5 recent transfers for alignment with long-term team value and fixture difficulty.
  • Create player scouting checklist: Define 5 key metrics (e.g., xGI, xGC, defensive actions) for evaluating potential FPL targets.
  • Track player form volatility: Monitor 3-5 high-variance players for patterns in performance dips and surges.
  • Measure transfer impact: Calculate points gained/lost from 2-3 recent transfers against their cost and opportunity cost.
  • Develop benching strategy: Define criteria for benching players based on fixture difficulty and player form for 3-5 upcoming gameweeks.

Related Episodes

Key Quotes

"kids they grow up so fast one day they're taking their first steps and the next they don't fit into the tiny sneakers they took them in you blink your eyes and their princess dress is two sizes too small and their dinosaur backpack isn't cool anymore but don't cry because they're growing up smile because you can profit off of it for real there are a bunch of parents on depop looking for the stuff your kid just grew out of download depop to start selling"

This quote highlights the rapid growth of children and suggests a practical solution for parents: selling outgrown items on Depop. The speaker frames this as an opportunity to "profit off of it," implying a financial benefit from a common parenting experience.

"but yeah no good week for me i think i finally outscored both of you guys as well so yeah happy to see it i've just i've just changed my microphone source thank you should work but yeah if you miss my answer i'm all good basically was the short of it so i'll go first i got the lowest score 82 so look at those green arrows across the board for us yeah that's pretty good from the three of us but i got 82 lowest one uh 11 from foden captained saka which looked great after his two great assists on saturday evening bruno 13 so many of my transfer in great to see him score lucky to see him not get sent off i think so i will take the six points and just be happy that he's available for burnley at home"

The speaker is discussing their performance in a fantasy football game, noting that they achieved their lowest score of 82 points. They mention specific player performances, such as Foden and Saka, and express relief that Bruno, a recent transfer, scored points without receiving a red card.

"but to be fair great finish from vultamada so hopefully he can do it at the other end next game week and yeah my bench actually did very well too i know me and harry were quite bullish on brighton scoring against liverpool and that obviously didn't turn out to be the case but i am happy to have konate on my bench going forward anyway but yeah big week for me finally outscored the rest of the lads and edging closer and closer to the top 1 million but not much to to call home about just yet honestly"

This speaker is reflecting on their fantasy football week, acknowledging a positive outcome from a player named Vultamada and expressing satisfaction with their bench players, specifically Konate. They are pleased to have outscored their companions and are making progress towards a higher ranking in the game.

"yeah i mean saka to get 11 and be my joint uh highest scoring player of the week with bruno and haaland uh scoring him but yeah still pretty good the vultamada own goal to wipe out malick cho's clean sheet that was tough that was tough but i did actually my my four free transfers that i made netted me an extra 25 points uh so happy days with that tom how many did you make"

The speaker is detailing their fantasy football performance, noting that Saka was a joint-highest scorer with 11 points, alongside Bruno and Haaland. They also mention a negative impact from Vultamada's own goal, which cost Malick Cho a clean sheet, but are pleased with the 25-point gain from their four free transfers.

"yeah i mean if you want to buy a player because of the points 2 6 4 3 6 2 i mean you just left that yeah i'm not i'm not game it's too long ago but the two points we got after that is he's like the second highest scoring mid isn't he i mean i think that says more about the state of the mids than but it's like for burnley at home which is like the best yeah i don't i don't hate it but i'm not sure but then it's like if i don't get saka so if i don't sell saka this week i'm probably not going to sell him next week before brighton at home and then i'll have no money so then it's a question of selling timber or but i just don't think that is for one week like you could wait till next week and do and it would be it would be two before going to but obviously you can get booked he could get booked so if it was me i'd roll and do the three transfers next week and go straight to"

This speaker is discussing player selection and transfer strategy in fantasy football, referencing past points and current form. They question the value of certain players and consider the implications of selling or keeping key players like Saka, weighing it against potential future transfers and financial constraints within the game.

"i mean yeah i'd have to sell timber and semenyo in order to get there and i mean those wolves at home leeds at home fixtures are really tempting i'd be interested to know if anyone in the chat is is wanting i mean a lot of us will want him but is anyone actually considering going there uh yeah i'm not so certain but if you can i think the answer is if you can i would do it but i don't think many people will be in that position you think it's worth two three transfers well i might be using two next week to buy a forward at a slightly cheaper price i mean i don't think you need it this week jared bowen probably for their fixtures but his data is really good eketeke and he does feel like the one person in that team who wants to be scoring goals really do you think he starts leeds and wolves"

The speaker is contemplating a significant transfer in fantasy football, considering selling Timber and Semenyo to acquire a new forward, possibly Ekteke, due to appealing upcoming fixtures. They are seeking input on whether this move is worthwhile and if it justifies using multiple transfers, while also questioning the player's starting potential in future games.

Resources

External Resources

Books

  • "The FPL Watchlist" by FPL Harry - Mentioned as a team selection strategy.

Articles & Papers

  • "The Bib Theory" (Brighton FPL accounts) - Discussed as a method for predicting starting lineups based on training bibs.

People

  • FPL Harry - Guest, discussed his FPL Watchlist strategy.
  • Stephen (FPL_Gallagher) - Guest, discussed FPL team selections and transfers.
  • Tom - Guest, discussed FPL team selections and transfers.
  • Cole Palmer - Mentioned as a player to be cautious about due to injury.
  • Nathan Aké - Mentioned as being unavailable due to AFCON, impacting Manchester City defensive options.
  • Gvardiol - Mentioned as a Manchester City defender option.
  • Tarkowski - Mentioned as an Everton defender option.
  • Michael Keane - Mentioned as an Everton defender option.
  • Guaihi - Mentioned as a Crystal Palace defender and primary goal threat from corners.
  • Lacroix - Mentioned as a potential Crystal Palace defender option.
  • Richards - Mentioned as a Crystal Palace defender option.
  • Wesley Fofana - Mentioned in relation to Chelsea defense and minutes played.
  • Moresca - Mentioned as the manager of Chelsea, discussing defensive rotation.
  • Calafiori - Mentioned as a potential Arsenal defender option.
  • Saka - Mentioned as a key player for Arsenal and a captaincy option.
  • Bruno Fernandes - Mentioned as a key player for Manchester United and a captaincy option.
  • Foden - Mentioned as a key player for Manchester City and a priority transfer.
  • Kluivert - Mentioned as a player with potential for attacking returns.
  • Cunha - Mentioned as a popular Manchester United midfielder option.
  • Sesko - Mentioned as a player returning for Manchester United.
  • Mount - Mentioned as a potential Manchester United midfielder.
  • Amra - Mentioned as the manager of Manchester United, discussing potential tactical changes.
  • Harry Wilson - Mentioned as a popular Fulham midfielder option.
  • Sarr - Mentioned as a potential midfielder option, with caution due to yellow cards.
  • Son - Mentioned as a potential midfielder option.
  • Casemiro - Mentioned as a suspended Manchester United midfielder.
  • Dewsbury-Hall - Mentioned as an injured Leicester City midfielder.
  • Tavernier - Mentioned as a short-term punt midfielder option.
  • Anderson - Mentioned as a Fulham midfielder option.
  • Sangare - Mentioned as a player who has scored goals, but is going to AFCON.
  • Vafre - Mentioned as a Brighton midfielder option with good defensive contributions.
  • Caicedo - Mentioned as a Brighton midfielder option.
  • Bowen - Mentioned as a West Ham forward option.
  • Paquetá - Mentioned as being back in the West Ham team, impacting Bowen's penalty duties.
  • Thiago - Mentioned as a Liverpool forward option.
  • Calvert-Lewin - Mentioned as a forward in good form for Everton.
  • Danny Welbeck - Mentioned as a Brighton forward option with inconsistent minutes.
  • Mitoma - Mentioned as a Brighton player with inconsistent minutes.
  • Isak - Mentioned as a Newcastle forward option.
  • Fim Pong - Mentioned as a potential Newcastle player.
  • Verratti - Mentioned as a potential Newcastle player.
  • Madueke - Mentioned as a Chelsea player warming up.
  • James - Mentioned in relation to Plan FPL.
  • Kevin Schade - Mentioned as a Brentford forward option.
  • Cherki - Mentioned as a potential Lyon player.
  • Doku - Mentioned as an injured Manchester City player.

Organizations

  • Fantasy Football Scout (FFS) - Mentioned in relation to their premium service and social media channels.
  • Depop - Mentioned as a platform for selling used children's clothing.
  • American Express Business Platinum - Mentioned as a business credit card with rewards points.
  • Whole Foods Market - Mentioned for holiday meal shopping and ingredient standards.
  • Arsenal - Mentioned in relation to their defense and upcoming fixtures.
  • Chelsea - Mentioned in relation to their defense and upcoming fixtures.
  • Manchester City - Mentioned in relation to their defense and upcoming fixtures.
  • Everton - Mentioned in relation to their defense and upcoming fixtures.
  • Crystal Palace - Mentioned in relation to their defense and upcoming fixtures.
  • Fulham - Mentioned in relation to their players and upcoming fixtures.
  • Liverpool - Mentioned in relation to their forward options.
  • West Ham - Mentioned in relation to their players and upcoming fixtures.
  • Brighton - Mentioned in relation to their players and upcoming fixtures.
  • Newcastle - Mentioned in relation to their defense and upcoming fixtures.
  • Tottenham - Mentioned in relation to their attack.
  • Leeds - Mentioned in relation to their play style.
  • Burnley - Mentioned in relation to upcoming fixtures.
  • Bournemouth - Mentioned in relation to upcoming fixtures.
  • Wolves - Mentioned in relation to upcoming fixtures.
  • Brentford - Mentioned in relation to upcoming fixtures.
  • Leicester City - Mentioned in relation to player injuries.
  • EA Sports FC 24 - Mentioned as a video game with festive upgrades.
  • Indeed - Mentioned as a platform for hiring.
  • Godaddy Aero - Mentioned as an AI tool for business growth.
  • Blinds.com - Mentioned as a provider of custom window treatments.
  • Blue Apron - Mentioned for their assemble and bake meal kits.
  • Sports Social Podcast Network - Mentioned as the network for this podcast.

Websites & Online Resources

  • FFSCOUT PREMIUM (https://bit.ly/FFScoutPOD) - Mentioned for premium service access.
  • Twitter (https://x.com/ffscout) - Mentioned as a social media channel for Fantasy Football Scout.
  • Bluesky (https://bsky.app/profile/ffscoutfpl.bsky.social) - Mentioned as a social media channel for Fantasy Football Scout.
  • TikTok (https://www.tiktok.com/@ffscout) - Mentioned as a social media channel for Fantasy Football Scout.
  • Instagram (https://www.instagram.com/ffscout_/) - Mentioned as a social media channel for Fantasy Football Scout.
  • Facebook (https://www.facebook.com/fantasyfootballscout/) - Mentioned as a social media channel for Fantasy Football Scout.
  • WhatsApp (https://www.whatsapp.com/channel/0029VbA2A9PDTkK5r73WyM1g) - Mentioned as a channel for Fantasy Football Scout.
  • podcastchoices.com/adchoices - Mentioned for ad choices.
  • amextravel.com - Mentioned for booking flights and hotels with American Express Business Platinum.
  • americanexpress.com/businessplatinum - Mentioned for more information on the American Express Business Platinum card.
  • meyer.com - Mentioned for holiday shopping deals.
  • godaddy.com/airo - Mentioned for business growth tools.
  • blinds.com - Mentioned for custom window treatments.
  • blueapron.com - Mentioned for meal kit services.
  • indeed.com/podcast13 - Mentioned for sponsored job postings.

Other Resources

  • Triple Captain - Mentioned as an FPL chip strategy.
  • AFCON - Mentioned as a tournament causing player unavailability.
  • Defensive Contributions (Def Con) - Mentioned as a metric for evaluating defenders.
  • Expected Goal Involvement (xGI) - Mentioned as a metric for evaluating attacking potential.
  • Expected Goals (xG) - Mentioned as a metric for evaluating attacking potential.
  • Expected Assists (xA) - Mentioned as a metric for evaluating attacking potential.
  • Carabao Cup - Mentioned in relation to fixture scheduling.
  • Europa League Conference - Mentioned in relation to Crystal Palace's European competition.
  • Winter Wildcards - Mentioned as a festive upgrade in EA Sports FC 24 Ultimate Team.
  • Manager Career - Mentioned as a mode in EA Sports FC 24.
  • Clubs - Mentioned as a mode in EA Sports FC 24.
  • Sponsored Job Credit - Mentioned as an offer for Indeed sponsored jobs.
  • Plan FPL - Mentioned as an FPL strategy resource.
  • Bib Theory - Mentioned as a method for predicting starting lineups.
  • Super Chats - Mentioned as a way to support the podcast.

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