Data-Driven FPL Strategy: Adapting to Form and Fixtures - Episode Hero Image

Data-Driven FPL Strategy: Adapting to Form and Fixtures

Fantasy Football Scout - FPL Tips · · Listen to Original Episode →
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TL;DR

  • Bruno Fernandes's consistent underlying numbers (key passes, big chances created) and set-piece involvement position him as a reliable, multi-faceted FPL asset, potentially finishing as a 200-220 point player this season.
  • The shift in FPL value from strikers to midfielders like Bruno Fernandes, Saka, and Foden is evident, with their high expected goal involvement (xGI) suggesting continued strong performances.
  • Despite potential fatigue, Crystal Palace's defense shows strong underlying numbers and favorable upcoming fixtures, making their defenders a viable, albeit risky, transfer option.
  • The introduction of five free transfers encourages significant team restructuring, allowing managers to address injuries, AFCON absences, and underperforming assets to optimize for the second half of the season.
  • Arsenal's strong attacking projections and favorable fixture against Wolves indicate that investing in their players, particularly Saka, is a strategic move for potential captaincy and consistent points.
  • While tempting, forcing defensive transfers in GW16 is discouraged due to a lack of clear standout options, suggesting managers should prioritize midfield and forward upgrades if needed.
  • The trend of players like Mateta dropping off the xGI charts highlights the importance of analyzing rolling averages and recent performance beyond single outlier games.

Deep Dive

This episode of the Fantasy Football Scout podcast focuses on preparing for Gameweek 16, offering FPL tips and advice to improve player rankings. The core discussion revolves around recent player performance, particularly the resurgence of Bruno Fernandes, the surprising drop-off of Mateta in expected goal involvement, and the strategic use of free transfers in light of upcoming fixtures and potential player absences due to AFCON. The hosts also delve into captaincy choices, with a strong lean towards Saka, and analyze the strengths and weaknesses of various teams and their defensive options.

The central argument is that successful FPL management requires adapting to current player form and upcoming fixture difficulty, rather than relying on past performance or perceived essential players. This is highlighted by the analysis of Mateta, who was once a must-have but has seen his underlying metrics decline significantly, making him a sellable asset. Conversely, Bruno Fernandes's consistent performances and strong underlying stats position him as a top midfield option, despite some lingering doubts about his role. The availability of five free transfers amplifies this dynamic, allowing managers to make significant squad adjustments to capitalize on favorable matchups and mitigate risks like AFCON call-ups.

The implications of these discussions extend to how managers should approach team composition and transfer strategy. The data presented on expected goal involvement (xGI) suggests a shift in value from strikers to midfielders, with players like Saka, Fernandes, and Foden exhibiting superior underlying numbers. This challenges the conventional wisdom of prioritizing top-tier strikers, especially when their fixtures are less favorable, as is the case with Haaland facing a solid Crystal Palace defense. The advice to potentially move away from Haaland for captaincy this week, in favor of Saka against a weaker Wolves side, exemplifies this tactical shift. Furthermore, the podcast underscores the importance of understanding team fatigue and fixture congestion, as seen with Crystal Palace's upcoming schedule, which impacts the reliability of their players. The hosts also touch upon the strategic advantage of having multiple free transfers, enabling managers to perform "mini-wildcards" to refresh their squads and prepare for future gameweeks, particularly those impacted by AFCON.

Ultimately, the key takeaway is that FPL managers must be agile and data-informed, constantly re-evaluating their squads based on current form, predictive analytics, and fixture analysis. The abundance of free transfers offers a significant opportunity to optimize teams, but their effective use requires foresight, focusing on long-term gains rather than short-term punts, especially as the season progresses and key players become unavailable.

Action Items

  • Audit player minutes: Track starting and substitute appearances for 5-10 key midfielders and forwards over the next 3-4 game weeks to identify potential rotation risks.
  • Analyze fixture difficulty: Rank upcoming opponents for top-scoring midfielders (e.g., Saka, Bruno Fernandes, Foden) over the next 5 game weeks to inform captaincy and transfer decisions.
  • Evaluate transfer strategy: For the next 3 game weeks, document the rationale and outcome of each transfer, focusing on whether it addressed a short-term punt or a long-term strategic improvement.
  • Measure impact of premium forwards: Track the points-per-million value of premium forwards (e.g., Haaland) against top midfielders over the next 5 game weeks to assess investment allocation.
  • Develop contingency plans: Identify 2-3 players with high variance in performance (e.g., Mateta, Jota) and plan alternative transfers for them in case of unexpected blanks or injuries.

Related Episodes

Key Quotes

"I know mate, I had to double take for a minute to see if you're using Hivo's or yourselves' graphic but no, it's true. A red arrow and to be honest, I said this before last season, I quite enjoy these red arrows. I enjoy the thrill of you know, fighting against it a little bit because it's been so plain sailing for so long right now."

Nacho explains his perspective on experiencing a red arrow in his Fantasy Premier League rank. He suggests that these setbacks can be enjoyable as they provide a challenge, especially after a period of consistent success. Nacho finds that these moments remind him of his skill and the effort required to overcome difficulties.

"I did the same as Nacho, I did some manual defaulting right in the deadline. 10:59 there was no K. I was at my daughter's birthday party on Saturday morning at 10 am and I looked at my team and I thought, ah sure, I'll roll the transfer. And then I thought about it, I thought, you can't roll a transfer this week. So at 10:59, I went and I went, same manual defaulting, bang, bang, bang, done."

Hibbo describes the frantic process of making transfers just before the deadline. He highlights the pressure of managing team changes while dealing with personal commitments, emphasizing the last-minute nature of some crucial decisions in Fantasy Premier League. Hibbo's anecdote illustrates the high stakes and quick thinking involved in the game.

"I think game week 16 is actually quite a difficult week to, um, to play your free hit. So just to read out some of the standout fixtures for game week 16 just to remind people, so really Arsenal against Wolves, the Champions League game is massive tomorrow in terms of indications of who will start in that Wolves game."

Nacho expresses his reservations about using the free hit chip in Game Week 16. He points to the difficulty of identifying clear targets and the importance of upcoming Champions League matches in determining starting lineups for the weekend fixtures. Nacho suggests that this specific game week might not be ideal for a free hit strategy.

"I think the general kind of rule of thumb is even though we are getting five free transfers where we got five free transfers and we probably all want to try and spend them is so the capacity try not to make transfers for the sake of making transfers and defenders this season with the introduction of defensive contributions has become even more a bit of a redundant transfer because once you are sat there with like your Chris Richards it's just such a steady Eddie pick."

Nacho advises caution when making transfers, particularly for defensive players. He suggests that with the increased importance of defensive contributions and the availability of reliable, "steady Eddie" picks like Chris Richards, it's often better to avoid unnecessary transfers. Nacho emphasizes focusing on strategic moves rather than simply spending transfers for the sake of it.

"I think the big one on, we'll look at it when we get on the player specific numbers, I think the big one this week's Saka captaincy and I think again people are going to say, oh you're backing against Haaland and it will all be a comeback. Haaland will score three goals and people will come out and go, yeah stupid, why did he back against Haaland?"

Andy discusses the potential captaincy choice between Bukayo Saka and Erling Haaland for the upcoming game week. He anticipates that backing Saka over Haaland might be seen as contrarian and could lead to criticism if Haaland performs exceptionally well. Andy highlights the common dilemma fantasy managers face when deciding between popular captaincy options and potential differential picks.

"I think the best composition and it's something we talked about earlier in the season, what's the best composition of an Arsenal trio that you can put in your yard and like at one point in time we were saying, oh you could do like Raya and Gabriel and Saka, you could do Trossard and Gabriel, you know we've went on this kind of weird paid where it's now the kind of Christmas time where like Trossard dropped out for a game for White but you don't think that'll continue."

Andy reflects on the optimal way to incorporate Arsenal players into a fantasy team. He recalls past discussions about different combinations of Arsenal assets and notes how team selections and player form can shift over time. Andy points out that even established players like Trossard can face rotation, making team composition a dynamic challenge.

Resources

External Resources

Books

  • "The 340b hospital markup program" - Mentioned in relation to how hospitals mark up discounted drugs and pocket the difference.

Articles & Papers

  • "The 340b hospital markup program" (Pharma) - Discussed as a program where hospitals mark up discounted drugs and pocket the difference, leading to high patient charges.

People

  • Andy - Host of the podcast, discussing FPL tips and team performance.
  • Nacho - Guest on the podcast, discussing FPL tips and team performance.
  • Hibbo - Guest on the podcast, discussing FPL tips and team performance.
  • Andy FPL Mode - Host of the podcast.
  • Saka - Player discussed for FPL potential and captaincy.
  • Haaland - Player discussed for FPL potential and captaincy.
  • Bruno Fernandes - Player discussed for FPL potential and captaincy.
  • Foden - Player discussed for FPL potential.
  • Thiago - Player discussed for FPL potential.
  • Mateta - Player discussed for FPL potential and recent performance decline.
  • Mitoma - Player previously transferred out.
  • De Bruyne - Player mentioned as a transfer option.
  • Munoz - Player discussed for FPL potential, with a flag.
  • Krupia - Player on the bench.
  • Mukiele - Player on the bench.
  • Ryley - Player mentioned in team points.
  • Virgil van Dijk - Player mentioned in team points.
  • Kanate - Player mentioned in relation to a penalty.
  • Senesi - Player mentioned in team points.
  • Semenyo - Player discussed as a transfer out.
  • Minter - Player mentioned in team points.
  • Darwin - Player on the bench.
  • Saliba - Player expected to return.
  • Gabriel - Player mentioned as being out.
  • Muslera - Player mentioned as being out.
  • Jota - Player discussed for FPL potential, with uncertainty about starting.
  • Eze - Player discussed for FPL potential.
  • Olise - Player discussed for FPL potential.
  • Keane - Player discussed as a defensive option.
  • Andersen - Player discussed as a defensive option.
  • Richards - Player mentioned as a transfer option.
  • Tarkowski - Player mentioned as a differential.
  • Alderweireld - Player mentioned as a bench option.
  • Rudon - Player mentioned as a defensive alternative.
  • Nathan Collins - Player mentioned as a defensive alternative.
  • Gomez - Player mentioned in the XGI table.
  • Harvey Barnes - Player mentioned in the XGI table.
  • DCL (Calvert Lewin) - Player mentioned in the XGI table.
  • Evan Ferguson - Player mentioned in the XGI table.
  • Jao Pedro - Player mentioned in the XGI table.
  • Neto - Player mentioned in the XGI table.
  • Mitchel - Player mentioned in the XGI table.
  • Bumo - Player mentioned in the XGI table.
  • Pep - Manager mentioned in relation to team performance.
  • Arteta - Manager mentioned in relation to team performance.
  • Glasner - Manager mentioned in relation to team performance.
  • Real Madrid - Team mentioned in relation to a fixture.
  • Bournemouth - Team mentioned in relation to a fixture.
  • Burnley - Team mentioned in relation to a fixture.
  • Leeds - Team mentioned in relation to a fixture.
  • Palace - Team mentioned in relation to a fixture.
  • Fulham - Team mentioned in relation to a fixture.
  • Everton - Team mentioned in relation to a fixture.
  • Brighton - Team mentioned in relation to a fixture.
  • Wolves - Team mentioned in relation to a fixture.
  • Man City - Team mentioned in relation to a fixture.
  • Newcastle - Team mentioned in relation to a fixture.
  • Villa - Team mentioned in relation to a fixture.
  • Arsenal - Team mentioned in relation to a fixture.
  • Liverpool - Team mentioned in relation to a fixture.
  • Chelsea - Team mentioned in relation to a fixture.
  • Man United - Team mentioned in relation to a fixture.
  • Brentford - Team mentioned in relation to a fixture.
  • Sunderland - Team mentioned in relation to a fixture.
  • Crystal Palace - Team mentioned in relation to a fixture.
  • Shelbourne - Team mentioned in relation to a fixture.
  • Pharma - Entity mentioned in relation to sponsorship.

Organizations & Institutions

  • Fantasy Football Scout (FFS) - Provider of FPL tips and content.
  • NFL (National Football League) - Professional American football league.
  • Pro Football Focus (PFF) - Data source for player grading.
  • Bluesky - Social media platform.
  • TikTok - Social media platform.
  • Instagram - Social media platform.
  • Facebook - Social media platform.
  • WhatsApp - Messaging platform.
  • Pharma - Entity mentioned in relation to sponsorship.
  • American Express Business Platinum - Business credit card.
  • Sports Social Podcast Network - Podcast network.

Websites & Online Resources

  • FFSCOUT PREMIUM (https://bit.ly/FFScoutPOD) - Link for premium content.
  • podcastchoices.com/adchoices - Website for ad choices.
  • 340bmarkup.org - Website to learn more about the 340b hospital markup program.
  • amextravel.com - Travel booking website.
  • americanexpress.com/businessplatinum - Website for business credit card information.

Other Resources

  • XGI table - Metric used to analyze player performance over the last six game weeks.
  • C bit table - Metric discussed on the podcast.
  • Free Hit chip - FPL strategy.
  • Expected Goal Involvement (xGI) - Metric used to analyze player performance.
  • Expected Goals (xG) - Metric used to analyze player performance.
  • AFCON - African Cup of Nations, a tournament impacting player availability.
  • EFL Cup - English Football League Cup.
  • Premier League - Professional football league.
  • Champions League - European football competition.
  • Green arrows - FPL term for improving rank.
  • Red arrows - FPL term for declining rank.
  • Grey arrow - FPL term for minimal rank change.
  • Template team - Common FPL team composition.
  • Mini wildcard - FPL strategy.
  • Daily fantasy - A type of fantasy sports game.
  • Christmas cracker - Item associated with Christmas.
  • European football - Football played in European competitions.
  • Conference League - European football competition.
  • Christmas jumpers - Festive clothing.
  • Mulled cider - Festive drink.
  • Eggnog - Festive drink.
  • Super chat - Feature for viewer donations on live streams.

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Handpicked links, AI-assisted summaries. Human judgment, machine efficiency.
This content is a personally curated review and synopsis derived from the original podcast episode.