Advantage Players: Exploiting Closing Lines, Not Luck
Related Episodes
Shutdown Strategy Fails, Polls Understate, and Sports Betting Risks
Democrats' shutdown strategy faltered, polls may hide strength, moderation still wins, sports betting risks integrity, and media's activist culture fades.
View Episode Notes →
Advantage Players Hack Casino Vulnerabilities Through Meticulous Observation
Advantage players exploit casino vulnerabilities through meticulous observation and teamwork, leveraging technological shifts and even countermeasures to achieve a consistent edge and profit legally.
View Episode Notes →
Sports Betting Syndicates--Premier League Ownership--Regulatory Conflicts
Successful sports betting syndicates use intermediaries and "whale" accounts to bypass sportsbook limits, leading to complex ownership conflicts within the Premier League.
View Episode Notes →
Million-Dollar Dreams Meet Racing's Declining Reality
Record-breaking horse auctions mask a declining industry; this episode reveals the paradox of immense wealth for young thoroughbreds versus the struggle for racing's future.
View Episode Notes →
Micro-Bets: Slot Machines for Gamblers, Threatening Sports Integrity
Micro-betting markets, like slot machines, risk sports integrity; sophisticated handicapping blends quantitative data with crucial qualitative insights for a true betting edge.
View Episode Notes →
Computer-Assisted Wagering Undermines Fair Play and Transparency in Racing
Computer-assisted wagering creates an indefensible imbalance, undermining fair play and fueling player distrust. Professional bettors now seek more transparent and sustainable markets.
View Episode Notes →Resources
Resources & Recommendations
Videos & Documentaries
- The Godfather - Mentioned for the Hyman Roth line "the business we've chosen," which is a nod to the dirty nature of the gambling business.
Tools & Software
- DraftKings - A sports betting app mentioned as a way to place bets in various states.
- FanDuel - A sports betting app, similar to DraftKings, for placing bets.
- Novig - A sweepstakes site where one can gamble.
- BetOnline - An offshore book mentioned as a potential option for betting.
- Bovada - An offshore book mentioned as a potential option for betting, and where Thomas first started betting.
- Kalshi - A prediction market where people can gamble, including using funds from a Robinhood account.
- SpotOdds - A company that offers odds screens showing lines for various games across different books.
- Unabated - A company that offers odds screens for sports betting.
- Don Best - A historical go-to for odds screens, used by Thomas when he started.
- PayPal - A payment service that many professional bettors, including Thomas, have been banned from.
- GeoComply - A service that collects geolocation and Wi-Fi login data, used by regulators to link betting accounts.
Organizations & Institutions
- American Gaming Association (AGA) - The lobbying arm of the casino industry, mentioned for its "Have a Game Plan" responsible gaming campaign.
- Colorado Gaming - The state regulator that investigated and took action against Thomas's betting activities.
- US Integrity - A third-party watchdog organization founded in 2018 to partner with regulators and sportsbooks to identify integrity issues like fraud and money laundering in sports markets.
Websites & Online Resources
- haveagameplan.org - The website for the American Gaming Association's responsible gaming campaign, which features casino and sportsbook logos, a map of legal sports betting states, and explanations of betting concepts.
- Gambling Twitter - A community where Thomas discovered discussions about CLV (Closing Line Value) and efficient market hypothesis.
- Robinhood - A brokerage app, mentioned as a platform from which users can fund Kalshi accounts.
- Pinnacle - A sportsbook Thomas mentions as a place where one might try their luck with new betting knowledge.
Other Resources
- Closing Line Value (CLV) - A concept in sports betting that Thomas researched, which refers to the value of a bet compared to the closing line of the market.
- Efficient Market Hypothesis - A financial theory that Thomas researched, related to the basic fundamentals of gambling markets.
- Wire Act - A federal law that was allegedly violated by Thomas, though attorneys advised it pertains to bookies, not bettors.
- Proxy Betting - An alleged violation of Colorado statutes that attorneys clarified pertained to bookies, not bettors.