Proprietary Data Analysis and Risk Management for Horse Racing Edge

Key Quotes

"I actually think i've i've bet fairly intelligently today um just took some took some bad uh one real brutal beat in the last race and then some others were um you know right right around it a key horse a key horse um with four other horses and ran first second third fourth and fifth and of course my key was the fifth"

Sean Boarman explains that despite a difficult day at the races, his betting decisions were sound, with the outcome being more a matter of bad luck than poor strategy. He highlights a specific instance where his "key horse" finished fifth in a race where other horses he favored ran first through fourth, illustrating the frustrating nature of near misses in handicapping.

"I read an article that sort of mapped out um what his trainers are going to do with him for the next few years and it didn't mention ascot at all so -- um i don't expect that to happen"

Sean Boarman discusses the future plans for a horse, Kai Ying Rising, based on an article he read. He indicates that based on this information, a rumored appearance at Ascot is unlikely, suggesting that trainers and owners are focused on a different trajectory for the horse.

"I'm i'm pretty close to i think my my chart package you know yearly results package on the us expires here in the next week at the at the turn of the year i'm i'm pretty close to just letting that go and saying the hell with the hell with making figures in the us anymore"

Sean Boarman expresses his intention to discontinue using his US-based yearly results package for handicapping at the end of the year. He suggests that he is moving away from generating figures for US racing, indicating a potential shift in his betting focus.

"I do think they give me an edge but is the edge big enough to keep doing them and paying for the data and dealing with all that nonsense i mean you know i'm not so sure"

Sean Boarman questions the cost-benefit analysis of maintaining his handicapping figures and data subscriptions for US racing. He acknowledges that these tools provide an edge but is uncertain if the advantage is significant enough to justify the expense and effort involved.

"You know, so when I was working with Mike, we had -- Bris made us like some used took one of their commercially available products, I think it was called Always, and and figured out how we could incorporate like our own figures and trips and stuff."

Sean Boarman describes a past method of incorporating proprietary handicapping data with commercially available products. He explains that while working with Mike, they utilized a Bris product and integrated their own figures and trip notes to enhance their analysis.

"I do think I can still beat the game. I'll just gotta figure out the most efficient way to do it without sort of wasting capital, you know, because those wasted combinations just weigh so heavily on your turns nowadays versus 10, 15, 20 years ago."

Sean Boarman asserts his belief in his ability to succeed in horse racing but emphasizes the need to find more efficient betting strategies. He notes that wasted combinations in wagers are now more detrimental to overall returns than in previous years, highlighting the importance of capital preservation.

"It's it's a very fine line to me that the, you know, because you you do feel like you're leaving money lying around by not betting enough when you get, you know, good rebates and have a pricing advantage on each bet, but at the same time, like it can trick you into betting too much and too many races when you, you know, when you don't really and the wrong pools."

Sean Boarman discusses the challenge of balancing the desire to maximize betting volume and take advantage of pricing advantages with the risk of overbetting or wagering in suboptimal pools. He describes this as a "very fine line" that requires careful management to avoid wasting capital.

"It's it's always was for me, it was, you know, depending on how you've been going recently, um, you know, just it because what it is essentially is, yeah, it's a financial rule, but it's all it's way more an emotional and a mental rule."

Sean Boarman explains that the "tuck rule," a strategy for guaranteeing a winning day, is primarily an emotional and mental guideline rather than a strict financial one. He states that its application depends on recent performance and one's current mental state.

"Going broke has a different meaning in gambling. It doesn't mean necessarily you're in the gutter sucking on a bottle of Wild Turkey. It just means you're at the end of your bankroll."

Sean Boarman clarifies that in gambling, "going broke" refers to depleting one's bankroll, not necessarily a state of personal destitution. He distinguishes between financial ruin in the context of betting and broader personal hardship.

"I do think that was a pretty good description of what the of what goes into it for you. Well, you know, and the other thing I should mention, it really depends on, like, you know, your bankroll too, and and all this plays in together obviously, but I, you know, I remember a time when I was, you know, very early on, sitting with Mike, just going terribly, and, you know, I gave ourselves like a hundred dollar limit for that day."

Sean Boarman elaborates on the situational nature of the "tuck rule," emphasizing its dependence on bankroll size and current financial standing. He recounts an early experience with Mike where a small bankroll and a losing streak led to a conservative approach of setting a $100 limit for the day.

"I think that was a pretty good description of what the of what goes into it for you. Well, you know, and the other thing I should mention, it really depends on, like, you know, your bankroll too, and and all this plays in together obviously, but I, you know, I remember a time when I was, you know, very early on, sitting with Mike, just going terribly, and, you know, I gave ourselves like a hundred dollar limit for that day."

Sean Boarman elaborates on the situational nature of the "tuck rule," emphasizing its dependence on bankroll size and current financial standing. He recounts an early experience with Mike where a small bankroll and a losing streak led to a conservative approach of setting a $100 limit for the day.

"I think that was a pretty good description of what the of what goes into it for you. Well, you know, and the other thing I should mention, it really depends on, like, you know, your bankroll too, and and all this plays in together obviously, but I, you know, I remember a time when I was, you know, very early on, sitting with Mike, just going terribly, and, you know, I gave ourselves like a hundred dollar limit for that