Quantitative Frameworks Drive Sports Betting Edge and Personal Fulfillment

Key Quotes

"I sat across his table and you know we had two hours planned together and he said boy I have one thing to tell you and he said I fucking hate statistics and I was like oh this is just going to be great but then I spent two hours with him and you know what he meant was he hated the way people used statistics to evaluate basketball players where they thought Al Iverson was a good player even though he needed 30 shots to score 30 points and you know he actually liked the concept of like tracking things like deflections and he even called his scouts while I was while I was there and he was like hey we should be tracking every time one of our defenders deflects the ball so anyways he was awesome he hated basic statistics but he likes the idea of measuring things that he thinks actually do provide value or contextualize things better."

The speaker recounts a conversation with Jerry West, who expressed a dislike for statistics. However, West's aversion was not to data itself, but to its superficial application. He valued metrics that provided deeper insight, such as tracking defensive deflections, demonstrating a nuanced approach to analytics.

"And I basically said, you know, the problem with the subjective manager is that that's inherently like why we make bad decisions right as humans because we're all prone to these emotional biases that shape us in, you know, in emotional or poor ways and the point of analytics or a framework to make decisions is that you won't make emotional decisions you won't you won't, you know, and over time I think you're always going to make better decisions personally."

The speaker argues that human decision-making is often flawed due to emotional biases. They propose that analytics or a structured decision-making framework can mitigate these biases, leading to more consistently sound choices over time.

"I mean, I guess kind of on the margin and to your point about the spread being like bigger or not like to win by 21 points you don't have to be like trying to run the score up if you're a much superior team to the other team, but I don't know if you think James Madison's good like it does make sense that this line could get out of whack because the market sees, you know, Oregon at home against a JMU team if they don't know that much about JMU and there's probably a fair amount of public money coming into these games, you could see a world where that spread gets out of whack."

The speaker discusses how market perception can influence betting lines, even when a team is clearly superior. They suggest that if the market underestimates a team like James Madison, the spread for their game against Oregon could become disproportionately large.

"I mean, I think like you can answer the question about how you'd handle him but like I think you would love to talk to him. I mean, I think you'd be your Rufus excited self. I mean, I grew up reading Tony Cornheiser and both the sports and the style sections of the Washington Post and obviously watching PTI."

The speaker expresses that Rufus would likely enjoy interacting with Tony Cornheiser, citing their shared history of following Cornheiser's work in sports and style sections, as well as his television appearances. This suggests a personal admiration and a potential for engaging conversation.

"I mean, I think the biggest thing for me in the last year is I've like suddenly discovered motivation again which is and so I've realized and I've realized that for me a huge part of who I am is like my identity is blazing my own trail and doing things differently building something myself and I think the the the idea of or the and of building my own like market making operation to kind of like try to like rival Susquehanna except actually be way better like is really it's really fun and it's and I'm like, you know, we're like 5 of the way there to where I want to be and we're still at a very basic level with stuff but it's it's so much fun and I feel like I learn things every day."

The speaker reflects on finding renewed motivation through building their own market-making operation. They describe this endeavor as a core part of their identity, involving forging a unique path and aiming for significant success, which brings them daily learning and enjoyment.

"I mean, I think my current job is really fun and challenging, frustrating in certain ways and different than like a lot of what I've done in my, you know, recent past and I get like a fair amount of fulfillment from that. I obviously am very love being a dad and get a lot of fulfillment from being a dad."

The speaker finds fulfillment in their current challenging job and in their role as a father. They highlight that these aspects of their life provide a significant sense of accomplishment and satisfaction.