Controversy Over College Football Playoff Selection Fuels Calls for Change
TL;DR
- The 12-team playoff format, while intended to create clear entry points, inadvertently creates scenarios where teams with weaker schedules can claim playoff berths, leading to controversy and debate.
- Notre Dame's exclusion from the playoff, despite a perceived lack of strength of schedule, highlights the tension between historical prestige and on-field performance in selection criteria.
- The debate over playoff expansion, particularly the inclusion of Group of Five teams, underscores the need for a more objective selection process beyond subjective committee decisions.
- The increasing emphasis on strength of schedule and road game performance in playoff discussions suggests a shift towards rewarding teams that consistently face tougher competition.
- The perceived bias in playoff selection, exemplified by discussions around Alabama versus Notre Dame, fuels skepticism and calls for a more transparent, data-driven approach.
- The discussion around opt-outs and bowl game participation reveals a conflict between player autonomy, financial incentives, and the traditional value placed on postseason play.
- The analysis of team performance metrics, such as yards per game and offensive statistics, reveals discrepancies between perceived team strength and actual on-field results.
Deep Dive
The 12-team College Football Playoff selection has generated significant controversy, particularly regarding the inclusion of two Group of Five teams (JMU and Tulane) over more established programs, and the exclusion of historically strong independent Notre Dame despite its lucrative media deal. This situation highlights a systemic tension between rewarding undefeated or near-undefeated records from smaller conferences and maintaining the perceived prestige and competitive balance favored by traditional powerhouses.
The debate over playoff inclusion and the perceived corruption within the selection process has fueled calls for expansion and a move away from subjective committee decisions. The exclusion of Notre Dame, in particular, underscores the complexities of their independent status; while they benefit financially from this arrangement, it also leaves them vulnerable to missing the playoff with a single loss, regardless of their overall season performance or historical standing. This has led to a strong reaction from Notre Dame fans and criticism of the committee's decision-making, especially given the revenue Notre Dame generates from the playoff system. Furthermore, the trend of players opting out of bowl games, even at the cost of potential earnings and exposure, points to a broader shift in player priorities and a growing disconnect between the athletes' interests and the demands of the traditional college football calendar, including its lucrative bowl system.
The ongoing discussions about playoff expansion, such as a potential 24-team format, are a direct consequence of these controversies. Such expansion could alleviate the "bubble" debate by ensuring more deserving teams are included, similar to March Madness in basketball. However, this expansion also poses a threat to the traditional bowl games, which are seen by some as outdated and less relevant in an expanded playoff era. The focus on the perceived bias in analyst commentary, like that of Herbstreit, and the influence of media rights holders (ESPN) on playoff decisions, suggests a growing public awareness and skepticism regarding the integrity of the sport's postseason structure. Ultimately, the current playoff format and its selection process have created a perfect storm that may force significant, long-overdue changes to the college football postseason.
Action Items
- Audit playoff selection criteria: Analyze 3-5 recent committee decisions to identify systemic biases or inconsistencies in team evaluation.
- Create a runbook for playoff scenario analysis: Define 5 required sections (e.g., tiebreaker rules, strength of schedule metrics, historical precedent) to ensure consistent evaluation.
- Measure impact of schedule strength on playoff inclusion: For 3-5 teams, calculate the correlation between strength of schedule and final ranking.
- Develop a framework for evaluating "eye test" vs. resume: Define 4-6 objective criteria to assess team performance beyond win-loss records.
Key Quotes
"The committee got it right in your mind with this 12 team playoff correct? Uh no, but they got it the best part this one's great guys. I mean this is one this one's great because forever, you know, there's been so much corruption in the sport and many years. I mean, you can go so on and so on how many teams have gotten fucked over."
Colby Dant expresses skepticism about the committee's decisions regarding the 12-team playoff, highlighting a history of perceived corruption and unfair treatment of teams in college football. He suggests that this corruption has historically affected smaller schools more often.
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This quote from the podcast's sponsor segment reveals a personal health insight gained from a diagnostic test. The speaker emphasizes the value of True Diagnostic's service in understanding one's biological age and health markers, encouraging listeners to use a promo code for a discount.
"Hey, we're not we didn't get invited to the playoffs, we're not playing anymore football. Like what a bitch ass move. Just play a bowl game. Why would you not want to play football?"
Sean Green criticizes Notre Dame's reported stance on opting out of bowl games after not making the playoff. He views this as a weak response and questions the decision to forgo playing football, suggesting it's a missed opportunity.
"The reality of the matter is what I what I really would like to know is about these opt outs, right? These teams deciding they're not gonna they're gonna stick it to ESPN by not playing in bowl games. They're also forfeiting money, correct? Yes. Um, but that seems objectively stupid. You're taking earning potential away from a workforce."
Ryan Kramer questions the logic behind teams opting out of bowl games, pointing out that it not only means forfeiting potential earnings for players but also seems like a self-defeating strategy. He views this decision as objectively foolish.
"I mean, Chris Fowler was saying if you look at Texas against Ohio State, they outgained Ohio State. It's like, dude, anyone who watched that game, Ohio State dominated that game. All right? I know it ended up being a one score game. That's the same crowd talking about Shador Sanders' 300-yard game. Like there's there's always going to be opportunity to put up stats in a game that you're getting handled in."
The speaker critiques the use of statistics like total yardage to evaluate game outcomes, specifically referencing a Texas vs. Ohio State game. He argues that such stats can be misleading and that a team can accumulate yards while still being dominated, a point he contrasts with how other stats are sometimes presented.
"The committee is the is the is clearly being operated by strings but there's also like an aesthetic to it and so yeah to your point if notre dame beats an sec team that was on the bubble even if in some sort of quote unquote exhibit why."
This quote suggests that the College Football Playoff committee's decisions are influenced by external factors or biases, implying a lack of pure meritocracy. The speaker believes that the committee's choices are not solely based on objective performance but also on how the narrative or "aesthetic" of the playoff unfolds.
Resources
External Resources
Books
- "The College Experience" by Colby Dant - Mentioned as the source of Colby Dant's commentary on college football playoffs.
Articles & Papers
- "The NCAA Power Index (NPI)" (Reddit CFB) - Referenced as a method for sorting Division I teams for playoff selection, removing arguments about team inclusion.
People
- Colby Dant - Guest on the podcast, providing commentary on college football playoffs and team selections.
- Sean Green - Co-host of the Sports Gambling Podcast.
- Ryan Kramer - Co-host of the Sports Gambling Podcast.
- Herbstreit - Analyst whose takes on college football are questioned due to perceived bias from bowl game affiliations.
- Chris Fowler - Mentioned in relation to his commentary on college football games.
- Mark Ingram - Former player whose comments on Alabama's playoff inclusion are noted.
- Eli Manning - Mentioned in an anecdote about a team making the playoffs and winning the Super Bowl.
- Jimmy Kimmel - His name was previously associated with the LA Bowl.
- Chris Peterson - His name is associated with the LA Bowl.
- Mike Leach - Former coach mentioned in relation to Valdosta State and coaching history.
- Chennis Barry - Former head coach of South Carolina State, mentioned as a predecessor.
- Buddy Phew - Legendary former head coach of South Carolina State.
- Tommy Rittenhouse - Quarterback for Illinois State, mentioned for his performance in a playoff game.
- Tim Plaw - Associated with UC Davis, mentioned in relation to their potential move to the Mountain West Conference.
- Nick Rolovich - Mentioned in relation to a rivalry game against Timmy Chang.
- Timmy Chang - Mentioned in relation to a rivalry game against Nick Rolovich.
Organizations & Institutions
- Sports Gambling Podcast (SGP) - The podcast hosting the discussion.
- True Diagnostic - Company that conducted a "true age test" mentioned for health insights.
- Underdog - Platform offering bonus funds for new customers.
- NFL (National Football League) - Professional American football league, context for past controversies.
- ACC (Atlantic Coast Conference) - Conference mentioned in relation to Notre Dame's participation and championship games.
- SEC (Southeastern Conference) - Conference mentioned in relation to playoff proposals and team performance.
- Big Ten - Conference mentioned in relation to television deals and ESPN.
- Fox - Media company mentioned in relation to television deals.
- ESPN - Media company mentioned in relation to television deals and playoff coverage.
- BYU (Brigham Young University) - University whose playoff case is discussed.
- Miami - University whose playoff case is discussed.
- Texas A&M - University whose playoff case is discussed.
- Georgia Tech - University whose record is compared to Miami's.
- Duke - University whose playoff case is discussed.
- Oregon - University whose game against Indiana is mentioned.
- Kentucky - University whose game against Georgia is mentioned.
- Vanderbilt - University that attempted to schedule Notre Dame.
- Utah - University that Vanderbilt attempted to schedule.
- San Jose State - University whose past bowl game experience is highlighted.
- James Madison (JMU) - University discussed for its transition to FBS and playoff inclusion.
- Tulane - University discussed for its playoff inclusion.
- Illinois State - University discussed for its playoff performance.
- North Dakota State - University discussed as a former FCS powerhouse.
- Indiana - University whose football program and roster composition are discussed.
- Kent State - University mentioned in relation to players on Indiana's roster.
- Villanova - University discussed in relation to its football program and potential FBS aspirations.
- Kennesaw State - University mentioned as a former FCS school now in FBS.
- Jacksonville State - University mentioned as a former FCS school now in FBS.
- Delaware - University mentioned as a former FCS school now in FBS.
- Missouri State - University mentioned as a former FCS school now in FBS.
- Liberty - University mentioned as a rival to JMU.
- Texas Tech - University mentioned in relation to playoff discussions.
- LSU (Louisiana State University) - University mentioned in relation to Tulane's playoff inclusion.
- Ole Miss - University mentioned as having a coachless team.
- Indiana University - University whose football team is discussed.
- South Carolina State - University that played in the Celebration Bowl.
- Valdosta State - University where Mike Leach and others coached.
- Jackson State - University whose game against Prairie View is discussed.
- Army - University whose football game against Navy is discussed.
- Navy - University whose football game against Army is discussed.
- Montana State - University discussed in relation to the FCS playoffs.
- Stephen F. Austin - University discussed in relation to the FCS playoffs.
- UC Davis - University discussed in relation to the FCS playoffs and potential Mountain West invite.
- Boise State - University whose football game against Washington is discussed.
- Washington - University whose football game against Boise State is discussed.
- Troy - University whose football game against Jacksonville State is discussed.
- Upper Iowa - University mentioned as winning the "Candy Bowl".
Tools & Software
- True Age Test - A test by True Diagnostic providing health insights.
- Underdog - A platform for fantasy sports and betting.
- Novig - A platform for virtual currency and gaming.
- CalCHe - A platform for trading college football games.
- Rhythm - An app for handicapping and building models for sports bets.
- Cigarbid - An online auction site for cigars.
Websites & Online Resources
- truediagnostic.com - Website for True Diagnostic, offering a discount code.
- underdogfantasy.com - Website for Underdog, offering bonus funds.
- novig.com - Website for Novig, offering bonus coins.
- calshee.com - Website for CalCHe, a platform for trading college football games.
- reddit.com/r/cfb - Reddit forum where a discussion on playoff selection methods occurred.
- YouTube.com/sportsgamblingpodcast - Platform where videos related to the podcast are available.
Podcasts & Audio
- Sports Gambling Podcast - The podcast where this discussion is taking place.
- The College Experience - Podcast hosted by Colby Dant.
Other Resources
- College Football Playoff - The playoff system for college football, a central topic of discussion.
- FCS Playoffs - The playoff system for the Football Championship Subdivision.
- Army vs Navy Game - A traditional rivalry game discussed for betting purposes.
- LA Bowl - A bowl game featuring Boise State and Washington.
- Celebration Bowl - A bowl game featuring Prairie View and South Carolina State.
- Battle for the Old School Bell - A rivalry game trophy between Troy and Jacksonville State.
- NCAA Power Index (NPI) - A metric used for playoff selection in Division III, proposed for Division I.
- Mountain West Conference - Conference UC Davis is potentially joining.
- "The Show" (TV Show) - A television show related to college football playoff selection, criticized for its influence.
- Opt-outs - Players choosing not to play in bowl games, a discussed phenomenon.
- NIL (Name, Image, Likeness) - Deals related to college athletes, mentioned in the context of opt-outs.
- Bowl Games - Post-season college football games, discussed critically.
- "Deeper Than Hate" - A rivalry game mentioned.
- "Candy Bowl" - A bowl game mentioned.