NFL Team Offseason Needs Analysis and Strategic Outlook
TL;DR
- The Texans defense achieved a historically low negative EPA of -33.4 in their playoff game, marking one of the top four defensive performances in negative EPA allowed this decade.
- The Steelers' offense delivered a bottom-five EPA per play performance for the entire season, even with their healthy starters, highlighting significant offensive struggles.
- The Bills' defensive scheme against the Jaguars utilized a complex cross-dog blitz with Tampa 2 principles, successfully frustrating the Jaguars' passing game by taking away primary options.
- The Bears' trick play against the Packers, a screen-and-go utilizing a tackle-over formation, effectively broke tendencies and created a wide-open touchdown by selling the screen.
- The Steelers' defense is both old and expensive, with significant cap space allocated to a defense that still exhibits major flaws exposed in playoff runs.
- The Jaguars face significant cap constraints, necessitating difficult decisions on retaining key free agents like Devin Lloyd and Travis Etienne due to past short-term contract moves.
- The Chargers possess substantial cap space, offering flexibility to address interior offensive line needs and potentially rebuild the unit into one of the league's best.
- The Packers must implement a "belt-tightening" offseason, potentially restructuring contracts or trading key players to create cap space for necessary defensive line and cornerback reinforcements.
- The Eagles' path to overcoming their playoff struggles hinges on resolving internal disconnects and potentially making significant coaching staff changes, particularly on offense.
- The Panthers need to significantly improve team speed on both offense and defense, and address critical needs at linebacker and potentially left tackle due to injury.
Deep Dive
The Texans defense has established itself as a historically dominant unit, capable of suffocating opponents and generating an elite negative EPA per play, as evidenced by their playoff performances. This defensive prowess, combined with an offense that utilizes jumbo sets and play-action effectively, positions the Texans as a significant AFC contender. However, their upcoming divisional round game against the Patriots presents a strategic challenge, as New England's strong interior pressure and capable cornerbacks could disrupt Houston's offensive rhythm.
The Steelers face a difficult offseason, burdened by an aging, expensive defense with significant flaws and a glaring need at quarterback. Their path to contention is hampered by a lack of draft capital and limited options in free agency, making it increasingly challenging to compete in a quarterback-driven AFC. The Jaguars, despite cap constraints, possess a solid core but must make critical decisions regarding key free agents, particularly regarding the dual-threat potential of Travis Hunter, to maintain their competitive trajectory.
The Chargers, armed with substantial cap space, have a clear opportunity to fortify their interior offensive line and potentially address other needs, setting a foundation for a competitive future under Jim Harbaugh. Meanwhile, the Packers face a belt-tightening offseason, requiring strategic financial management and a focus on health to overcome their recent playoff shortcomings, with a strong defensive line being a key area for improvement. The Eagles, despite their talent, must address internal offensive disconnects and potential coaching changes to regain their championship form, with A.J. Brown's situation being a critical factor. Finally, the Panthers are in a rebuilding phase, needing to inject speed across the roster and address significant defensive weaknesses, particularly at linebacker, while navigating the uncertain future of Bryce Young and the recent injury to their franchise left tackle.
Action Items
- Audit Steelers' run defense: Identify 3 root causes for playoff struggles and propose 2-3 systemic fixes.
- Analyze Jaguars' cap situation: Project impact of 3 key free agent losses on team depth and propose 2 alternative retention strategies.
- Evaluate Chargers' interior offensive line: Identify 3 specific player archetypes needed to align with Jim Harbaugh's run-heavy philosophy.
- Assess Packers' defensive line needs: Quantify the impact of size deficiency on run defense and identify 2 draft-eligible prospects at nose tackle.
- Review Eagles' offensive coordinator search: Define 3 criteria for an external candidate to improve offensive scheme cohesion.
Related Episodes
Texans' Defense Dominates Wild Card Weekend Amidst Coaching and Offensive Philosophy Debates
Houston's defense dominated Wild Card Weekend, winning decisively despite offensive struggles and highlighting a potential organizational reset for teams like Pittsburgh.
View Episode Notes →
Steelers' Ceiling Limited by Tomlin's Consistent Success
Mike Tomlin's consistent success may have capped the Steelers' potential, preventing quarterback development and offensive innovation. Now, a new coach must elevate the team's ceiling.
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Steelers' Tomlin Departure Signals Rebuild Amidst Defensive Decline
Mike Tomlin's departure signals a necessary rebuild, moving beyond a 19-year streak of non-losing seasons to modernize the Steelers' strategic approach and address systemic defensive decline.
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NFL Championship Pressure and College Football's Chaotic Evolution
NFL coaching changes prioritize Super Bowl wins, college football embraces chaotic player movement driven by NIL, and innovative offenses achieve success even in lower divisions.
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Strategic NIL and Coaching Drive Kentucky Football Ascendancy
Kentucky football adopts a data-driven NIL strategy, prioritizing top "studs" over broad distribution, mirroring successful championship teams.
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Wild Card Weekend Exposes Quarterback, Coaching, and Scheme Vulnerabilities
Established quarterbacks falter, coaching decisions face scrutiny, and early playoff exits expose systemic team vulnerabilities, questioning long-term viability.
View Episode Notes →Key Quotes
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"The Texans defense generated negative 33.4 EPA, the fewest by any playoff defense this decade. The Texans have three of the top four performances in negative EPA allowed in the decade."
Mike Renner explains the exceptional performance of the Texans' defense by citing a significant statistical achievement. This quote underscores the defense's dominance, as evidenced by its historical ranking in EPA allowed during playoff games.
"I think this guy could do it. Every time I watch him in pass sets, he looks so natural. He's a tremendous run blocker. And we know what he is at tight end now. Like he's kind of just a placeholder, good in the running game, reliable hands, not dynamic. But as an offensive tackle, and you look at his body type, 6'6", he's in the 260s, and he is diced up."
The speaker is analyzing Cole Kmet's potential transition to offensive tackle. This quote details Kmet's physical attributes and natural ability in pass sets and run blocking, suggesting he possesses the foundational skills for success at the tackle position, contrasting it with his current role as a tight end.
"The way they get over the Wild Card hump is asking who actually wants to be here. And that is a big question because it is specifically about A.J. Brown. Does A.J. Brown still want to be here? Because if he doesn't, like, that is a, that's a big piece. You have to start moving in trade discussions."
The speaker is discussing the Philadelphia Eagles' path to overcoming playoff shortcomings. This quote identifies a critical internal question regarding A.J. Brown's commitment to the team, suggesting that his potential desire to leave could necessitate trade discussions and impact the team's future strategy.
"I think they need some more team speed on both sides of the ball. They're not fast, and I think that's what really stood out when watching them in the first half against the Rams was there was no threat downfield to really open up those lanes for Terron Armstead and Jalen Coker."
The speaker is analyzing the Carolina Panthers' performance and offseason needs. This quote points to a lack of speed on both offense and defense as a significant weakness, noting that this deficiency limited the effectiveness of their offensive playmakers against the Rams.
Resources
External Resources
Books
Videos & Documentaries
Research & Studies
- Next Gen Stats stat - Exemplifies the Texans defense's performance in the game against the Steelers.
Tools & Software
Articles & Papers
People
- Aaron Rodgers - Mentioned in relation to his performance against the Bills defense.
- Arthur Smith - Mentioned in relation to forcing the ball to Kyle Pitts.
- Ben Johnson - Mentioned for his play calls for the Bears.
- Bobby Babich - Mentioned for his role in the Bills' defensive game plan against the Jaguars.
- Brandon Echols - Mentioned in relation to a red zone interception thrown by C.J. Stroud.
- Buster Brown - Mentioned as a starting outside corner for the Jaguars who is a free agent.
- C.J. Stroud - Mentioned in relation to the Texans' offense and his performance against the Steelers.
- Christian Benford - Mentioned for a blitz against the Jaguars.
- Cole Bishop - Mentioned for his role in a Tampa 2 defense against the Jaguars.
- Cole Kmet - Mentioned in relation to playing offensive tackle for the Bears.
- Dante Corleone - Mentioned as a potential draft target for the Packers at nose tackle.
- Darnell Washington - Mentioned in relation to playing offensive tackle.
- David Onyemata - Mentioned as a potential free agent target for the Packers at defensive tackle.
- Derek Kaman - Mentioned in relation to the Steelers' run defense.
- DJ Reader - Mentioned as a potential free agent target for the Packers at defensive tackle.
- Dominique Orange - Mentioned as a potential draft target for the Packers at nose tackle.
- Edrian Cooper - Mentioned as an extension-eligible player for the Packers.
- Elijah Vera Tucker - Mentioned as a potential free agent option for the Chargers.
- Elton Jenkins - Mentioned in relation to the Packers' offensive line and contract.
- Eric Armstead - Mentioned in relation to the Jaguars' cap space and potential trade.
- Fred Johnson - Mentioned as a free agent for the Eagles.
- Gabe Davis - Mentioned in relation to the Jaguars' cap space.
- George Pickens - Mentioned as an extension-eligible player for the Steelers.
- Grant Calcaterra - Mentioned in relation to the Eagles' run game struggles.
- Greg Roman - Mentioned as a potential offensive coordinator for the Chargers.
- Greg Newsum - Mentioned as a starting outside corner for the Jaguars who is a free agent.
- Icky Aquanu - Mentioned in relation to the Panthers' left tackle position and injury.
- Isaac Seumalo - Mentioned as an impending free agent for the Steelers.
- Jalen Carter - Mentioned as a potential free agent for the Eagles.
- Jalen Gainwell - Mentioned in relation to the Steelers' offense.
- Jalen Hurts - Mentioned in relation to the Eagles' offense and relationship with A.J. Brown.
- Jalen Phillips - Mentioned as a free agent for the Eagles.
- Jarian Jones - Mentioned as a potential starting corner for the Jaguars.
- Jaylen Warren - Mentioned in relation to the Steelers' offense.
- Jevon Bullard - Mentioned in relation to the Packers' defense.
- Jim Harbaugh - Mentioned in relation to the Chargers' desired team identity.
- Joe Burrow - Mentioned as a quarterback in the AFC.
- Joe Noteboom - Mentioned as a potential free agent option for the Chargers at left tackle.
- Jordan Davis - Mentioned as a free agent for the Eagles.
- Jordan Morgan - Mentioned as a potential replacement for Rashid Walker at left tackle for the Packers.
- Josh Allen - Mentioned as a quarterback in the AFC.
- Josh Simmons - Mentioned in relation to offensive tackle prospects.
- Justin Herbert - Mentioned in relation to the Chargers' offense.
- Kadarius Toney - Mentioned in relation to the Chiefs' offense.
- Kaiir Elam - Mentioned in relation to the Bills' defense.
- Kaden Proctor - Mentioned as a potential draft pick for the Chargers at offensive tackle.
- Kamari Ramsey - Mentioned as a potential draft target for the Jaguars at safety.
- Kenneth Gainwell - Mentioned as an impending free agent for the Steelers.
- Khalil Mack - Mentioned in relation to the Chargers' defense and potential retirement.
- Kyle Long - Mentioned in relation to advising Cole Kmet.
- Lamarr Jackson - Mentioned as a quarterback in the AFC.
- Lee Hunter - Mentioned as a potential draft target for the Packers at nose tackle.
- Luton Burden - Mentioned in relation to a screen and go play for the Bears.
- Malik Willis - Mentioned as a free agent for the Packers.
- Marcus Epps - Mentioned in relation to the Raiders' defense.
- Matt Milano - Mentioned for a blitz against the Jaguars.
- Matthew Golden - Mentioned as a potential replacement for Romeo Doubs for the Packers.
- Maxx Crosby - Mentioned in relation to his performance against the Steelers.
- Mike McDaniel - Mentioned as a potential offensive coordinator for the Eagles.
- Mike Jackson - Mentioned in relation to a potential extension for the Panthers.
- Mike Tomlin - Mentioned in relation to potential changes for the Steelers' defense.
- Nick Herbig - Mentioned as an extension-eligible player for the Steelers.
- Nick Scott - Mentioned as a free agent for the Panthers.
- Nico Collins - Mentioned in relation to the Texans' offense and potential free agency for the Eagles.
- O'Ceepee Olou - Mentioned in relation to the Bears' offensive line.
- Parker Washington - Mentioned in relation to the Jaguars' offense and potential extension.
- Patrick Mahomes - Mentioned as a quarterback in the AFC.
- Quay Walker - Mentioned as a free agent for the Packers.
- Rashan Gary - Mentioned in relation to the Packers' cap space and contract.
- Rashid Walker - Mentioned as a free agent for the Packers and his market value.
- Rico Dowdle - Mentioned as a free agent for the Panthers.
- Robert Hunt - Mentioned in relation to the Panthers' interior offensive line.
- Romeo Doubs - Mentioned as a free agent for the Packers.
- T.J. Watt - Mentioned in relation to the Steelers' defense.
- Tariq Woolen - Mentioned in relation to the Seahawks' defense.
- Taylor Moton - Mentioned in relation to the Panthers' right tackle position and potential contract out.
- Teviarre Tart - Mentioned as a potential free agent target for the Packers at defensive tackle.
- Trevon Marit - Mentioned in relation to the Panthers' defense.
- Trevor Lawrence - Mentioned in relation to the Jaguars' offense.
- Troy Fanu - Mentioned in relation to Danielle Hunter's sack.
- Tuli Tuipulotu - Mentioned as an extension-eligible player for the Chargers.
- Walker Little - Mentioned in relation to the Jaguars' offensive line and potential trade.
- Will Anderson - Mentioned in relation to stopping a screen pass.
- Xavier McKinney - Mentioned in relation to the Packers' defense.
- Zack Tom - Mentioned in relation to the Packers' offensive line.
- Zion Johnson - Mentioned as a free agent for the Chargers.
Organizations & Institutions
- Alabama - Mentioned in relation to Ty Simpson.
- Browns - Mentioned in relation to the Texans' defense.
- Buffalo Bills - Mentioned in relation to their defense against the Jaguars.
- Carolina Panthers - Mentioned in relation to their offseason plans.
- Chargers - Mentioned in relation to their offseason plans.
- Cincinnati - Mentioned in relation to Dante Corleone.
- Eagles - Mentioned in relation to their offense and offseason plans.
- Green Bay Packers - Mentioned in relation to their offseason plans.
- Houston Texans - Mentioned in relation to their defense and upcoming game against the Patriots.
- Iowa State - Mentioned in relation to Dominique Orange.
- Jacksonville Jaguars - Mentioned in relation to their offseason plans.
- Kansas Crossing Casino and Hotel - Mentioned in relation to Bet MGM disclosures.
- New England Patriots - Mentioned in relation to their upcoming game against the Texans.
- NFL - Mentioned in relation to game day delivery and player statistics.
- Ohio State - Mentioned in relation to Josh Simmons.
- Pittsburgh Steelers - Mentioned in relation to their offseason plans.
- Rams - Mentioned in relation to the Panthers' game.
- Sutton Bank - Mentioned in relation to Cash App's banking services.
- Tennessee - Mentioned in relation to Chris Brazell.
- Texas A&M - Mentioned in relation to Chase Bazantas.
- USC - Mentioned in relation to Kamari Ramsey.
Courses & Educational Resources
Websites & Online Resources
- Bet MGM - Mentioned for a second chance promotion.
- Cash App Legal Podcast - Mentioned for full disclosures.
- FanDuel Sportsbook - Mentioned as a sponsor.
- PFF - Mentioned as a data source.
- Thumbtack - Mentioned for home projects.
- Uber Eats - Mentioned as an NFL partner for game day delivery.
Podcasts & Audio
Other Resources
- AFC - Mentioned in relation to playoff predictions.
- EPA per play - Mentioned as a metric for offensive performance.
- EPP - Mentioned as a metric for offensive performance.
- Jumbo sets - Mentioned as an offensive formation.
- Negative EPA allowed - Mentioned as a metric for defensive performance.
- Playoff game - Mentioned in relation to various team performances.
- Second Chance Promotion - Mentioned by Bet MGM.
- Super Bowl - Mentioned in relation to playoff predictions.
- Tampa 2 defense - Mentioned in relation to defensive schemes.
- Wild Card round - Mentioned in relation to team offseason plans.