NFL Playoff Analysis: Eagles' Struggles, Chargers' Potential, NFC Strength
TL;DR
- The Eagles' offensive struggles stem from a negative pass frequency over expected (-10) post-Week 5, actively running more than passing, indicating a reliance on a historic run game that has since diminished.
- Jalen Hurts' recent performances are among his worst, with two of his last four games featuring negative EPA per dropback, highlighting limitations in the current passing offense.
- The Chargers' long-term prosperity is secured by the Justin Herbert and Jim Harbaugh combination, suggesting consistent playoff contention and potential Super Bowl contention over the next decade.
- The NFC boasts a clear tier of well-balanced teams, with stronger overall talent and smaller flaws compared to the AFC, making an NFC representative more likely to win the Super Bowl.
- The 2023 offensive tackle draft class is exceptionally strong, with at least four of the five first-round picks already playing at a competent to quality starting level, exceeding expectations.
- The Texans' dominant defense, leading the NFL in turnover differential, creates a "rock fight" scenario that makes them a difficult playoff opponent, turning games into low-scoring defensive battles.
- The Bills' strategic use of cornerback Christian Benford as a blitzer proved effective, baiting Joe Burrow into a game-flipping pick-six by exploiting protection schemes.
Deep Dive
The NFL playoff picture is crystallizing, with the Eagles demonstrating significant offensive struggles and the Chargers showcasing resilience under new leadership. While the Eagles' recent performance raises concerns about their Super Bowl contention, the Chargers' ability to win close games, coupled with the promising partnership of Justin Herbert and Jim Harbaugh, positions them as a team to watch. The depth of talent in the NFC, particularly among its top teams, suggests a stronger conference overall compared to the AFC's top-heavy nature.
The Philadelphia Eagles' offense is showing a critical decline, ranking 26th in EPA per play over their last five games. This downturn is linked to a decreased reliance on their historic run game and Jalen Hurts' struggles as a passer. The offense appears disjointed, with a lack of consistency from key players like A.J. Brown, leading to questions about the long-term viability of the Hurts-Brown connection and the offensive scheme. This offensive malaise, coupled with a strong defense, makes their playoff status precarious, despite a high probability of making the postseason due to a favorable schedule.
In contrast, the Los Angeles Chargers, despite significant offensive line injuries and consistent pressure on Justin Herbert, are finding ways to win. Their resilience is exemplified by Herbert's ability to make crucial plays with his legs to extend drives, underscoring his status as an elite quarterback. The burgeoning partnership between Herbert and new head coach Jim Harbaugh signals long-term potential for sustained success and consistent playoff contention, even if this season's Super Bowl aspirations are challenged by their current roster limitations. The defense is also showing promise with young talent, suggesting a solid foundation for future seasons.
The NFC appears to be the stronger conference top-to-bottom, with teams like the Rams, Seahawks, and Packers demonstrating more complete skill sets and fewer critical flaws than their AFC counterparts. While the AFC boasts teams with better records, this is partly attributed to a weaker overall conference. The top NFC teams possess strong defensive lines, which are crucial for navigating the playoff gauntlet. This conference depth and perceived completeness suggest a higher likelihood of an NFC team emerging as Super Bowl champions.
The discussion also highlighted the potential for unexpected teams to surprise in the playoffs, with the Texans and Bears identified as dark horses due to their turnover-forcing defenses and dominant run games, respectively. Conversely, teams like the Steelers, Ravens, Chiefs, Buccaneers, and Bengals were deemed less threatening due to historical defensive issues or a lack of consistent high-level play, making their playoff appearances feel less impactful. The analysis of rookie offensive tackles also revealed a strong draft class with multiple players showing franchise potential, suggesting that teams investing in this position are likely to see significant returns.
Action Items
- Audit offensive line depth: For 3-5 teams, identify 2-3 potential draft targets at offensive tackle based on physical traits and movement skills.
- Analyze quarterback limitations: For Jalen Hurts, document 3 specific passing concepts that are consistently problematic due to his current skill set.
- Develop defensive scheme playbook: For teams employing zone coverage, create 2-3 specific blitz packages that leverage cornerbacks effectively.
- Track offensive line development: For 5-10 offensive linemen with significant playing time, measure improvement in pass protection metrics over a 4-week period.
- Evaluate team offensive identity: For teams struggling offensively, analyze run-pass frequency and EPA per play to identify strategic adjustments.
Key Quotes
"The Eagles actually have problems this offense is a disaster over the last four weeks or excuse me five weeks they're 26th in offensive epa per play they're behind the saints over their last five games this offense it is ugly jalen hurts four picks in this one now one was off aj brown's hands the last one kind of a tipped forced pass maybe not the worst decision in the world other two though were tough um this just this eagles team right now they cannot get out of their own way"
JP Acosta highlights that the Eagles' offense is struggling significantly, ranking poorly in offensive EPA per play over their recent games. Acosta points out that Jalen Hurts' four interceptions in the game, while not all solely his fault, contributed to the offensive woes. This indicates a systemic issue with the Eagles' offensive performance.
"I was a little curious on why this eagles offense feels so disjointed and why the passing game felt like there was more flaws even with higher volume and that's because in 2024 when the eagles offense turned it around they took the ball out of their quarterback's hands like they they ran the ball so much after that by week according to bin baldwin's site on the athletic after their week five by week the eagles pass frequency over expected on all plays was negative 10 they were actively running the ball more often than they threw it and that's because they had a historic run game but now that the run game isn't historic they're trying to find ways to move the ball more efficiently"
Mike Renner analyzes the Eagles' offensive struggles, noting a shift in strategy after their Week 5 bye. Renner explains that the team reduced their pass frequency, opting for a run-heavy approach when their run game was historically strong. He suggests that as the run game has faltered, the offense is now trying to find more efficient ways to move the ball, indicating a lack of adaptability.
"I think a lot of it still falls on jalen hurts and his limitations in this passing offense and just how you have to scheme around those limitations uh and how he's had to for his entire career basically and even with aj brown like he was not good well he had 100 yards on 13 targets but when they needed him most he dropped the touchdown in the back of the end zone he had another play on a swing pass or he's just checked out and is just not blocking or being effective and it feels like that happens too often now it feels like aj brown probably won't be on the eagles this time next year"
JP Acosta discusses the performance of both Jalen Hurts and A.J. Brown, suggesting that Hurts' limitations in the passing game are a significant factor. Acosta also notes Brown's struggles, including a crucial dropped touchdown and a lack of effectiveness on other plays, leading him to speculate about Brown's future with the team. This points to a potential disconnect and underperformance from key offensive players.
"This game it was the scrambling it was the timely like third and four like 17 yard run to help on the game tying field goal drive it's the shaking off defenders and getting like six yards on third and five it's those type of plays where like look man the eagles defense which again is terrific which is why wasting this defense with that offense feels like a it's feels disrespectful but they weren't getting any separation downfield they could not win throwing the ball so justin herbert was like fine i'll go win this game with the scrambles and that's what we see the elite quarterbacks do and i think justin herbert despite everything that has happened to this offensive line this season has been one of the nfl's elite quarterbacks"
Mike Renner analyzes Justin Herbert's performance in the game against the Eagles, highlighting his ability to win through scrambling and timely runs. Renner contrasts this with the Eagles' defense, which he praises, while criticizing their offense for failing to generate separation downfield. Renner concludes that Herbert's improvisational play demonstrates his elite quarterback status despite offensive line challenges.
"I think that this broncos team is as complete as there is as well um in the other conference so that's going to be a great matchup number one versus number one a lot to look at there can we talk about how cool some of these wrinkles of the tush push are like saquon barkley um going out the left side for 50 yards for the touchdown mark andrews a couple weeks ago in a game sealing effort down there in that little tush push sneak to tush push formation p o at right i i just it makes me think of the innovation in our game and how much has changed over the years"
JP Acosta discusses the Broncos' completeness as a team and then transitions to the innovative wrinkles seen in the "tush push" formation. Acosta uses examples like Saquon Barkley's touchdown run and Mark Andrews' game-sealing effort to illustrate how teams are creatively adapting this play. This highlights the evolution of offensive strategies in the NFL.
"I think that this texans defense is so dominant the bears for the fact that their running game is so dominant and has been so dominant and you have a unique threat at quarterback in caleb williams that if you told me these teams snuck through and got to the super bowl like i said also with the jaguars i think more so than the 49ers or chargers i wouldn't be terribly surprised"
Mike Renner identifies the Texans and Bears as "sneaky teams" with the potential to surprise in the playoffs. Renner attributes the Texans' potential to their dominant defense and the Bears' to their strong running game and the unique threat of quarterback Caleb Williams. He suggests that these teams, along with the Jaguars, could make unexpected deep playoff runs, surprising many.
Resources
External Resources
Books
- "The Athletic" - Mentioned as a source for offensive pass frequency data.
Articles & Papers
- "The Athletic" - Mentioned as a source for offensive pass frequency data.
Websites & Online Resources
- Audacy app - Mentioned as a platform where "Pushing the Pile" is available.
- Apple Podcasts - Mentioned as a platform where "Pushing the Pile" is available.
- Spotify - Mentioned as a platform where "Pushing the Pile" is available.
- cbssports.com/newsletters - Mentioned as the URL for the Pick Six Newsletter.
- cbssports.com/nfl/ - Mentioned as the URL for more NFL coverage from CBS Sports.
- cbssports.com/podcasts/ - Mentioned as the URL for the CBS Sports Podcast Network.
- cbssports.com/adchoices - Mentioned as the URL for ad choices.
- audacyinc.com/privacy-policy - Mentioned as the URL for listener data and privacy practices.
- podcastchoices.com/adchoices - Mentioned as the URL for ad choices.
- fanduel.com - Mentioned as the URL to download the app and bet the NFL live.
- sportsbook.fanduel.com - Mentioned as the URL for terms and conditions.
- fanduel.com/rg - Mentioned as the URL for gambling problem resources.
- mintmobile.com/pile - Mentioned as the URL to shop Mint Unlimited plans.
- mintmobile.com - Mentioned as the URL for Mint Mobile.
- cash app.com/legal/podcast - Mentioned as the URL for full disclosures regarding Cash App.
- tankathon.com - Mentioned as a source for draft pick information.
Podcasts & Audio
- Pushing the Pile: A CBS Sports NFL Podcast - The primary podcast discussed in the episode.
- Free Range with Von Miller - Mentioned as a podcast hosted by Von Miller.
Other Resources
- NFL (National Football League) - The primary subject of discussion.
- Monsters Inc broadcast - Mentioned as an alternate broadcast for an NFL game.
- Monsters University - Mentioned in relation to the alternate broadcast theme.
- Cars (movie franchise) - Mentioned as a potential theme for an alternate broadcast.
- Inside Out (movie) - Mentioned as a potential theme for an alternate broadcast.
- Tush Push formation - Discussed as a specific offensive play.
- Wing T offense - Mentioned as a potential offensive strategy for the Colts.
- Inverted Cover 2 coverage - Discussed as a defensive scheme.
- Dagger route concept - Mentioned in relation to a play call.
- Cover 2 coverage - Discussed as a defensive scheme.
- Pick Six - Mentioned as a type of interception.
- RPO (Run-Pass Option) - Discussed as an offensive play type.
- Bootleg offense - Mentioned as an offensive strategy.
- Play action - Mentioned as an offensive tactic.
- Five out protection - Discussed as an offensive line scheme.
- Phone booth - Used metaphorically to describe a player's ideal situation.