Labor Market Weakening, Fed Uncertainty, and Evolving Financial Markets - Episode Hero Image

Labor Market Weakening, Fed Uncertainty, and Evolving Financial Markets

Original Title:

TL;DR

  • The November jobs report indicates structural weakening in the labor market, with rising unemployment and slowing wage growth, suggesting a broader economic slowdown beyond isolated blips.
  • Employment prospects for young workers (16-24) are grim, with their unemployment rate at its highest since November 2021, signaling significant entry-level career challenges.
  • The US economy is failing to create enough jobs to match new entrants, averaging only 22,000 jobs per month over three months, indicating a market at the break-even point for workforce expansion.
  • Healthcare and social assistance remain the sole sector driving job gains, accounting for 116% of private sector job increases, while manufacturing continues to decline, highlighting sector-specific economic divergence.
  • Extended trading hours, proposed by Nasdaq and adopted by other exchanges, trade increased global accessibility and faster information reaction for foreign investors against risks of extreme volatility during low-liquidity hours.
  • Uber and DoorDash's lawsuit against New York City's tipping law reveals a complex interplay between minimum wage mandates, app design, and consumer behavior, demonstrating how UX changes significantly impact worker compensation.
  • Volkswagen's closure of its Dresden plant, a symbolic "transparent factory," signifies a strategic response to weakening sales in Europe and China, despite the political sensitivity of plant closures in Germany.

Deep Dive

The November jobs report revealed a weakening labor market, with a significant net loss of jobs and a rise in unemployment, signaling potential broader economic slowdown. This data complicates the Federal Reserve's decision-making process regarding interest rates and the future direction of monetary policy. Simultaneously, Nasdaq's proposal for extended trading hours and ongoing shifts in the race for the next Federal Reserve Chair highlight the dynamic and evolving nature of financial markets and institutional leadership.

The jobs report presented a mixed picture, with a headline loss of 64,000 jobs and an increase in the unemployment rate to 4.6%, the highest since September 2021. This suggests a structural weakening in the labor market, a key indicator the Federal Reserve monitors for signs of broader economic slowdown. While some sectors like healthcare and social assistance continue to add jobs, manufacturing remains anemic, and government employment saw a notable decline. Wage growth also slowed to its lowest level since 2021, contributing to consumer pessimism. However, a closer look at private payrolls shows an average gain of 75,000 jobs per month over the last three months, suggesting a potentially stronger underlying job creation than the headline numbers indicate. Despite these nuances, employment prospects for young workers (16-24) remain grim, with their unemployment rate hitting 10.6%. The overall job growth rate is insufficient to keep pace with the supply of new workers, indicating a market that is barely stable. Economists acknowledge the data's complexity, with one noting, "If you are not confused, you are not paying attention," suggesting the Fed may hold off on strong reactions until data distortions from factors like a government shutdown clear.

The race for the next Federal Reserve Chair is characterized by uncertainty, with both leading contenders, Kevin Hassett and Kevin Warsh, facing unique challenges. While Hassett was initially seen as the frontrunner due to his close ties to the White House, Warsh has surged in prediction markets, influenced by presidential signals and concerns about a potential bond market revolt if Hassett were appointed. The possibility of a third candidate, Fed Governor Chris Waller, also looms, as he is perceived as a defender of the Fed's institutional independence. This situation creates a lose-lose scenario for the Fed: appointing either Kevin could compromise its independence by appearing beholden to the executive branch, potentially leading to a rocky tenure. Financial titans like Jamie Dimon have expressed a preference for Warsh, citing concerns about Hassett's proximity to the White House and potential influence on interest rates, while Ken Griffin emphasized the critical need for distance between the Fed and the White House.

Nasdaq's request to expand trading hours to nearly 23 hours a day signifies a broader trend toward continuous trading, driven partly by the 24/7 nature of cryptocurrency markets and the blurring of work-life boundaries post-pandemic. Proponents argue this increased accessibility will benefit international investors by allowing them to react more quickly to market-moving events. However, detractors warn of increased volatility, particularly during low-liquidity hours, and a potential shift toward more speculative, gambling-like behavior. The infrastructure costs for exchanges to operate continuously are substantial, estimated in the tens of billions of dollars. Despite these concerns, the momentum appears to be shifting toward longer trading days, with the New York Stock Exchange already receiving approval for extended hours and some brokers offering 24-hour trading on less regulated platforms.

The legal battle between Uber and DoorDash and New York City over a new tipping law underscores the intense competition and regulatory challenges in the massive food delivery industry. The law requires apps to prompt customers to tip upfront, a move that Uber and DoorDash argue infringes on their free speech rights and could lead to "tipping fatigue" and sticker shock. This law is a direct response to the delivery companies' decision in 2023 to move tipping prompts to post-checkout, a move seen as suppressing worker pay and increasing reliance on apps. This itself was a reaction to New York City mandating a minimum wage for delivery workers, which increased costs for the companies. The outcome of this lawsuit will significantly impact how delivery workers are compensated, as tipping has historically constituted a substantial portion of their earnings, a share that has reportedly decreased precipitously following these regulatory and app-based changes.

Finally, the bidding war for Warner Brothers Discovery has been reshaped by Jared Kushner's firm exiting Paramount's bid, validating concerns about Paramount's complex funding structure, which relies heavily on various investment funds and pledged collateral. This development has shifted the odds back in favor of Netflix, a much larger entity with significantly greater financial resources. The key question remains whether Larry Ellison, whose family is backstopping Paramount's equity commitments, is truly committed and financially capable, especially given Oracle's recent stock declines. Concurrently, Volkswagen's decision to close a plant in Germany, a move unprecedented in its 88-year history, highlights the company's struggles with weakening sales in Europe and China, and the broader economic pressures forcing significant operational adjustments.

Action Items

  • Audit job market data: Analyze unemployment rate trends for 16-24 year olds and overall job growth averages over 3-6 month periods to identify systemic weakening.
  • Track sector-specific job gains: Monitor healthcare and social assistance job gains against manufacturing job losses to assess economic sector health.
  • Measure wage growth impact: Calculate the trend of wage growth slowdown against consumer spending sentiment to understand economic pressures.
  • Evaluate Nasdaq trading hours proposal: Analyze potential impacts of extended trading hours on market volatility and institutional versus retail participation.
  • Assess delivery app tipping law: Quantify the effect of upfront tipping prompts on delivery worker earnings and customer order volume.

Key Quotes

"the best b2b marketing gets wasted on the wrong people in what possible world do i need this seven pound bag of wasabi peas that social media is obsessed with showing me to reach the right professionals use linkedin ads linkedin has grown to a network of over 130 million decision makers you can target your buyers by job title industry and more spend 250 on your first campaign and linkedin will even give you a 250 credit on your next one just go to linkedin com mbd that's linkedin com mbd terms and conditions apply only on linkedin ads"

The speaker highlights LinkedIn Ads as a superior B2B marketing tool. This quote demonstrates that LinkedIn's extensive network of decision-makers allows for precise targeting based on job title and industry, making marketing efforts more effective than general social media advertising. The mention of a promotional credit further suggests an incentive for businesses to utilize the platform.


"let's say you're watching a tv show and you'd want to avoid spoilers maybe you'll stay off the internet for a bit or avoid talking to friends who are ahead of you but there's another place you may want to stay away from google earth fans of the hit apple show pluribus are confronting the fact that google earth's historical imagery reveals a major plot point in episode seven if you zoom in on the fake neighborhood outside of albuquerque that was used for the set i'm not going to tell you what it is of course but toby this has got me spooked i'm still in the middle of lord of the rings and i'm totally going to stop my google maps street view tour of oskiliath"

This quote illustrates an unexpected way spoilers can be revealed through digital mapping services. The speaker expresses concern that Google Earth's historical imagery, when applied to specific filming locations, can inadvertently expose plot points from television shows. This anecdote serves as a cautionary tale about the pervasive nature of information in the digital age and how even seemingly innocuous tools can impact entertainment experiences.


"employers added 64 000 jobs last month but officials also revealed a revised october report that showed the us economy lost 105 000 jobs a month prior the biggest red flag other than failing to hold the door open for you is that the unemployment rate rose to 4 6 that is up from 4 4 the month prior and the highest level since september 2021 when the country was still emerging from the pandemic a steady rise in unemployment suggests the labor market is seeing a structural weakening aka the exact kind of move that the fed is hyper attuned to as it indicates a broader slowdown not a one off blip"

The speaker is presenting a concerning jobs report that indicates potential economic weakening. This quote details a significant drop in job additions from the previous month and a rise in the unemployment rate to its highest point since late 2021. The speaker emphasizes that this trend suggests a structural issue in the labor market, which is a key indicator that the Federal Reserve closely monitors for signs of a broader economic slowdown.


"then again you also look at private payrolls so we talked about the fact that d o j eliminated 162 000 government jobs but let's look at private payrolls they have risen by an average of 75 000 per month for the last three months so that maybe suggests stronger underlying job creation than the headline number of job losses may suggest so there's some glass half full statistics that maybe show that this is maybe more of a confusing or muddy job report than the headline numbers suggest"

This quote offers a more optimistic interpretation of the jobs report by focusing on private sector employment. The speaker contrasts the government job losses with the consistent growth in private payrolls, suggesting that the overall picture might be stronger than the headline numbers indicate. This perspective suggests that the job market may be more resilient than initially portrayed, with private industry driving job creation.


"nasdaq wants you to pull an all nighter the second largest us exchange asked the sec for permission to beef up its trading hours by adding an additional session from 9 pm to 4 am bringing the total amount of time you can make ill fated bets on beyond meat to 23 hours the pros of such an approach include letting your cousin in brussels day trade during his waking hours as it would invite market participants outside the us to play ball us stocks dominate global portfolios so investors in asia to europe who currently react after the fact to big events like earnings or fed decisions could capitalize on information more quickly"

The speaker is discussing Nasdaq's proposal to extend its trading hours significantly. This quote explains that Nasdaq is seeking permission to add an overnight trading session, which would allow for 23 hours of trading per weekday. The speaker highlights the potential benefits, such as increased accessibility for international investors who could trade during their local waking hours and react more quickly to market-moving news.


"uber and doordash are throwing a christmas time hail mary to try and block a new tipping law coming to new york city next year the food delivery companies sued the big apple over a measure that will change the way tipping looks on their apps the law coming into effect in january forces them to prompt customers to tip their delivery person up front instead of after the transaction and the default tip will be a minimum of 10 the companies say this infringes on their first amendment rights to free speech by requiring them to relay a government mandated message to their customers they argue that people are suffering from so much tipping fatigue they'll stop ordering food delivery due to pre checkout sticker shock"

This quote details the legal challenge Uber and DoorDash have mounted against a new tipping law in New York City. The speaker explains that the law requires these companies to prompt customers for tips upfront, with a minimum of 10%, rather than after the transaction. The companies argue this infringes on their free speech rights and could lead to customers reducing orders due to perceived "sticker shock" at checkout.

Resources

External Resources

Books

  • "The Summer I Turned Pretty" - Mentioned as a show that was previously spoiled on the podcast.

Articles & Papers

  • "Report on the jobs report" (RSM economist Joe Brusuelas) - Referenced for the statement, "If you are not confused, you are not paying attention."

People

  • Jerome Powell - Mentioned as the current Fed chair whose replacement is being discussed.
  • Kevin Hassett - Mentioned as a contender for the next Fed chair.
  • Kevin Warsh - Mentioned as a contender for the next Fed chair.
  • Chris Waller - Mentioned as a Fed governor and potential dark horse candidate for Fed chair.
  • Jamie Dimon - Mentioned as the CEO of JP Morgan who implied a preference for Warsh as Fed chair.
  • Ken Griffin - Mentioned as the CEO of Citadel who emphasized the need for distance between the White House and the Fed.
  • Jared Kushner - Mentioned in relation to his PE firm Affinity Partners exiting Paramount's bid for Warner Brothers Discovery.
  • David Ellison - Mentioned as controlling Paramount and the father of Larry Ellison.
  • Larry Ellison - Mentioned as a potential backer of Paramount's bid for Warner Brothers Discovery, with questions about his commitment.
  • Thomas Schaefer - Mentioned as the CEO of Volkswagen brand.

Organizations & Institutions

  • Morning Brew Daily - The podcast hosting the episode.
  • Morning Brew - The production company of the podcast.
  • LinkedIn Ads - Mentioned as a platform for B2B marketing to reach professionals.
  • Apple - Mentioned as a company whose stock is traded on Nasdaq.
  • Amazon - Mentioned as a company whose stock is traded on Nasdaq.
  • Nvidia - Mentioned as a company whose stock is traded on Nasdaq.
  • New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) - Mentioned as having received initial approval for 22-hour weekday trading.
  • Robin Hood - Mentioned as a broker that offers 24-hour trading.
  • Wells Fargo - Mentioned for a trading desk response calling extended trading hours "literally the worst thing in the world."
  • Uber - Mentioned in relation to a lawsuit against New York City over a tipping law.
  • Doordash - Mentioned in relation to a lawsuit against New York City over a tipping law.
  • Public Investing - Mentioned as a brokerage service provider.
  • Open to the Public Investing Inc. - Mentioned as a brokerage service provider.
  • FINRA - Mentioned as a member of Open to the Public Investing Inc.
  • SIPC - Mentioned as a member of Open to the Public Investing Inc.
  • Public Advisors - Mentioned as the provider of the Generated Assets tool.
  • Volkswagen (VW) - Mentioned for closing a plant in Germany.
  • Affinity Partners - Mentioned as Jared Kushner's PE firm that exited Paramount's bid.
  • Paramount - Mentioned in relation to its bid for Warner Brothers Discovery.
  • Warner Brothers Discovery - Mentioned as the target of a bidding war.
  • Saudi Investment Funds - Mentioned as a source of funding for Paramount's bid.
  • Qatari Investment Funds - Mentioned as a source of funding for Paramount's bid.
  • Abu Dhabi Investment Funds - Mentioned as a source of funding for Paramount's bid.
  • Oracle - Mentioned as having its stock pledged as collateral for Paramount's bid.
  • Netflix - Mentioned as a competitor in the bidding war for Warner Brothers Discovery.
  • Citadel - Mentioned in relation to its CEO Ken Griffin.
  • JP Morgan - Mentioned in relation to its CEO Jamie Dimon.
  • Hanover County Animal Protection Shelter - Mentioned as the beneficiary of merchandise sales from a viral raccoon story.

Websites & Online Resources

  • linkedin.com/mbd - Mentioned as the URL for LinkedIn Ads.
  • public.com/morningbrew - Mentioned as a URL to learn more about Public.
  • public.com/disclosures/ga - Mentioned for disclosures related to Generated Assets.
  • public.com/disclosures/matchprogram - Mentioned for terms of the match program.
  • public.com/disclosures - Mentioned for disclosures.
  • youtube.com/@MorningBrewDailyShow - Mentioned as the URL to watch Morning Brew Daily.
  • megaphone.fm/adchoices - Mentioned as the URL for ad choices.
  • applecard.com - Mentioned as the URL for Apple Card terms.
  • davidprotein.com/mbd - Mentioned as the URL for David Protein.

Other Resources

  • Generated Assets - Mentioned as an interactive analysis tool by Public Advisors.
  • Apple Card - Mentioned as a credit card with simple rewards.
  • Bitcoin - Mentioned as an example of a cryptocurrency that can be traded 24/7.
  • Ethereum - Mentioned as an example of a cryptocurrency.
  • Pluribus - Mentioned as a hit Apple show.
  • Lord of the Rings - Mentioned as a show the speaker is currently watching.
  • Game of Thrones - Mentioned as a show that could be spoiled with historical Google Earth data.
  • The Transparent Factory - Nickname for VW's plant in Dresden.
  • ID3 GTX - The final car that rolled off the assembly line at VW's Dresden plant.
  • Drunk Raccoon - A viral internet story that raised money for an animal shelter.

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