ETFs Drive Diversification Across Public, Private, and Digital Markets
TL;DR
- ETFs enable broader investor access to private markets by standardizing illiquid alternative assets, reducing operational complexity and the burden of K-1 tax forms for wealth managers.
- The ETF wrapper provides a more accessible and familiar entry point for investors to gain exposure to digital assets like Bitcoin, mitigating risks associated with direct ownership.
- Fixed income ETFs are poised for significant growth, expanding from a niche segment to a substantial portion of the $140 trillion global bond market as transparency and product granularity increase.
- The evolution of ETF technology allows for the efficient packaging of active strategies, offering investors the benefits of mutual ownership without the capital gains tax penalties.
- BlackRock leverages AI and big data to systematically identify emerging investment themes and stress-test new strategies, enhancing product development and investor outcomes.
- The increasing crossover between public and private markets necessitates integrated risk management solutions like Aladdin, enabling investors to understand and manage blended portfolios effectively.
- Even mature markets like US large-cap equities require continuous innovation, with demand for alternative indices like equal-weight S&P 500 reflecting shifting market dynamics.
Deep Dive
BlackRock's Chief Product Officer, Stephen Cohen, outlines a strategic evolution in financial product development, driven by the increasing demand for diversification and accessibility in investment portfolios. This shift necessitates moving beyond traditional passive indexing to embrace a broader spectrum of financial tools, including active ETFs, digital assets, and private markets, aiming to provide clients with more comprehensive solutions for their financial goals.
The core of Cohen's perspective is that the asset management industry is undergoing a profound transformation, marked by the blurring lines between public and private markets, and the growing acceptance of blending active and passive strategies. ETFs, once primarily associated with passive indexing, are now evolving to encompass active management and even digital assets, demonstrating the technology's adaptability. This evolution is not merely about offering new products but about fundamentally rethinking how investment strategies are delivered to clients. BlackRock's approach, as detailed by Cohen, is a dual one: a top-down identification of market gaps and innovative opportunities, combined with a bottom-up understanding of client needs and portfolio challenges. The rapid growth of products like the Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) exemplifies this, offering a familiar ETF wrapper for a nascent, complex asset class, thereby bridging traditional finance with decentralized markets.
Cohen emphasizes that product development must be grounded in genuine client needs and strategic foresight, not simply a proliferation of offerings. This is evident in BlackRock's focus on areas like fixed income ETFs, which, despite significant growth, still represent a small fraction of the overall bond market, indicating substantial future potential. Similarly, the burgeoning interest in private markets--private equity, debt, infrastructure, and real assets--is seen not just as a trend but as a necessary component of modern portfolios, potentially shifting the traditional 60/40 allocation to a more diversified 50/30/20 model. However, integrating these less liquid assets into accessible portfolios presents operational and standardization challenges, which BlackRock aims to address through technology and strategic product design. The firm's investment in platforms like Aladdin, alongside acquisitions like Preqin and EFront, underscores a commitment to managing the complexities and risks associated with these evolving market segments, ultimately aiming to provide clients with integrated solutions rather than isolated products.
The future of product development, as envisioned by Cohen, lies in this holistic approach, where technology and a deep understanding of market dynamics enable the creation of solutions that help investors achieve their goals. The increasing adoption of AI in investment strategy and product development further fuels this innovation, offering new tools for identifying themes, testing strategies, and enhancing investor outcomes. This forward-looking perspective suggests that the industry's evolution is far from over, with ongoing opportunities to redefine how investors access and manage their wealth across an increasingly complex financial landscape.
Action Items
- Create product strategy: Define 3-5 core themes for new ETF development based on market trends and client demand (e.g., private markets, digital assets).
- Audit ETF launches: Analyze the top 10-15 fastest-growing ETFs to identify common characteristics and potential product gaps.
- Develop client education materials: Create 3-5 modules explaining the benefits and mechanics of incorporating private markets into diversified portfolios.
- Measure ETF adoption: Track the growth of fixed income ETFs in Europe against US benchmarks over a 2-year period to assess regional progress.
- Implement systematic investment strategy: Pilot AI-driven sentiment analysis on 500 earnings call transcripts to identify alpha-generating signals.
Key Quotes
"I'm not sure I had a plan I studied economics at school and then at university and I was always I was always intrigued by this kind of concept of the markets I didn't have any background no family background in in markets or investing but I always found reading up about markets interesting and what kind of got me in it was a slight fluke we were talking about flukes before the show one of my neighbors was a telecoms engineer and he used to go round to all the banks installing the dealer boards like various atms automatic tele machines we call them here dealer boards the phone phone systems that you used on the trading floors you know the company with all the with all the hoot and holler and all that kind of stuff."
Stephen Cohen explains that his entry into the financial markets was not a direct plan but rather a result of serendipity and curiosity. He describes how an interest in economics and markets, combined with an intriguing experience on a trading floor, led him to pursue a career in investment strategy.
"So I worked I originally started in fixed income and then and then went into convertibles bonds and a lot of what I spent my time doing was kind of more market strategist type of roles so talking to clients about what was going on in the markets what was going on in the bond markets trade you know developing trade ideas for clients and that's also how I got involved in spending quite a lot of time on the Japanese markets which I found you know incredibly interesting and really got to understand kind of the Japanese culture and and the way the country operated."
Stephen Cohen details his early career experiences in fixed income and convertible bonds, highlighting his role as a market strategist. He emphasizes how this work involved client interaction, market analysis, and the development of trading ideas, which also led to a deep engagement with the Japanese markets and culture.
"It feels incredibly different I think for Japan it's completely different you know if you go back to as you say the late 90s early 2000s you know the banking crisis that was part of the bubble and the collapse had still not been solved and the collapse had still not been solved and it was only really in the early early to mid 2000s that they finally kind of got their arms around the banking system and one thing you read about history and unless you can get the banking system operating properly and lending you really struggle to get an economy going."
Stephen Cohen contrasts the Japanese economy and markets of the late 1990s and early 2000s with the present day. He points out that the banking system's issues from the bubble and collapse were a significant drag on the economy, and it was only after addressing these that recovery became possible.
"So I had an opportunity you know having had a lot of great experiences in 2011 BlackRock was probably 18 months into the integration of the ishares business or the indexing business and really focused on how do we expand this business particularly how do we expand ishares this you know this etf business and back in 2011 Europe European etfs were still a very nascent industry you know now it's like a two and a half trillion dollar industry I European ishares is over a trillion dollars back then it was very much still the very early days and you could see what was what was happening in the states."
Stephen Cohen explains his transition to BlackRock in 2011, noting the firm's strategic focus on expanding the iShares ETF business, particularly in Europe. He highlights that the European ETF market was nascent at the time, contrasting it with its significant growth in the US and its current scale.
"Honestly it was talking to the people at ishares it was having kind of been introduced to them and having been approached to to go and talk to them it was I learned a lot from just sitting down and understanding this I'd sat in banks we traded etfs they were to be honest a very very small component of what we of what we did it was only really when I spoke to the people at ishares and BlackRock and understood the history of how ishares had grown and where it was then and the that sense of mission that sense of kind of the purpose of giving more access to investing to people you know and creating more transparency that they had lived as they grown the US business and they were growing the European business and that kind of just captured you."
Stephen Cohen attributes his realization of iShares' future potential to conversations with the people at iShares and BlackRock. He explains that understanding their mission of increasing investment access and transparency, coupled with the company's growth trajectory, was a key factor in recognizing the opportunity.
"I think we're seeing AI in probably three areas the first one is obviously AI as an investment theme which is very well publicized etc and we're seeing that through things like data centers obviously stocks credit etc the second one is AI in terms of investment strategy for example BlackRock were very fortunate to have a systematic group investment group that has a 40 year track record and history of delivering really great performance and you know they would argue they were doing AI well before it was called AI when it was called machine learning or whatever it was called before that it's been around a while."
Stephen Cohen outlines three primary areas where Artificial Intelligence (AI) is impacting the investment industry. He identifies AI as an investment theme, its application in investment strategy through systematic groups with long track records, and its role in product development.
Resources
External Resources
Books
- "Sweet Tooth" by Ian McEwan - Mentioned as an example of a book with a twist, set in the 1950s/1960s UK spy era.
- "Time Something" by Martin Amis - Mentioned as a book written backwards, exploring consciousness and time.
Articles & Papers
- "Masters in Business" (Bloomberg Radio) - The podcast series featuring the interview.
People
- Stephen Cohen - Blackrock's Chief Product Officer and Head of Global Product Solutions.
- Barry Ritholtz - Host of "Masters in Business" and author of "How Not to Invest."
- Ian McEwan - Author mentioned for his writing style and specific book.
- Martin Amis - Author mentioned for his writing style and specific book.
- Arvind Krishna - IBM's Chairman and CEO, interviewed on "Smart Talks with IBM."
- Hannah Fry - Host of "The Exponential Era" podcast.
Organizations & Institutions
- BlackRock - Global asset manager discussed for its product development and ETF business.
- iShares - BlackRock's ETF division, discussed for its growth and impact on the asset management industry.
- UBS - Mentioned as Stephen Cohen's first employer out of university.
- ING Barings - Mentioned as a previous employer of Stephen Cohen.
- Nomura - Mentioned as a previous employer of Stephen Cohen, with a focus on Japanese markets.
- Southampton College - Stephen Cohen's alma mater for his economics degree.
- Mastercard - Mentioned for its adaptive approach to B2B acceptance and commercial acceptance solutions.
- Adobe - Mentioned for its Acrobat Studio with AI-powered PDF features.
- CVS Caremark - Mentioned for its prescription savings plan.
- IBM - Mentioned for its "Smart Talks" podcast featuring Arvind Krishna.
- Nokia - Mentioned in relation to "The Exponential Era" podcast and protecting data from quantum threats.
- Odoo - Mentioned as an all-in-one integrated business software platform.
- Spectrum - Mentioned for its mobile and home internet offerings.
- Pepperidge Farm - Mentioned for its cookies (Milano, Chessmen, Linzer).
Podcasts & Audio
- Masters in Business - The podcast series featuring the interview.
- The Exponential Era - Podcast hosted by Hannah Fry, discussing future network technology.
- Smart Talks with IBM - Podcast featuring an interview with IBM's Chairman and CEO Arvind Krishna.
Other Resources
- ETFs (Exchange Traded Funds) - Discussed extensively as a product type, its evolution, and impact on the asset management industry.
- Q Day - A hypothetical future day when encrypted data is at risk from quantum computers.
- Virtual Card Payments - Mentioned as a demand from buyers in the B2B card payment landscape.
- AI (Artificial Intelligence) - Discussed as an investment theme, in investment strategy, and for product development.
- Keiretsu - Japanese concept of vertically integrated companies, discussed in relation to the Japanese economy.
- Core and Satellite Investing - An investment strategy concept previously used.
- Bitcoin - Discussed as a digital asset and the subject of an ETF.
- Ethereum - Mentioned in relation to a BlackRock Ether fund.
- Private Markets - Discussed as a growing segment of the market and its potential integration into ETFs.
- Aladdin Platform - BlackRock's risk management platform, important for private market investments.
- Preqin - Acquired by BlackRock, relevant to private market data and transparency.
- eFront - Acquired by BlackRock, relevant to private market investments.
- Fixed Income - Discussed as an asset class and its evolution within ETFs.
- Demographics and Immigration - Mentioned as factors impacting inflation and income streams.
- Post-COVID Impact - Discussed as an ongoing influence on industries and luxuries.
- Compounding - Discussed as a powerful concept in investing and wealth management.