FPL Strategy Adapts to Managerial Changes and Fixture Uncertainty

Let's Talk FPL · January 06, 2026 · Listen to Original Episode →

Original Title:

TL;DR

Managerial changes at Manchester United create uncertainty, suggesting a shift from a back three to a back four formation, which will likely reinstate Bruno Fernandes in a more advanced number 10 role, impacting player selection from Gameweek 24 onwards.
Selling Aaron Ramsdale to fund Arsenal transfers is justifiable, but holding him longer might be prudent until official double and blank gameweek information is confirmed, as Arsenal is a likely candidate for a double gameweek around 26-27.
Prioritizing defensive contributions and goal threat for under £5 million, Collins is a viable option, but his utility is limited to approximately Gameweeks 21-23 due to a challenging fixture run thereafter.
Switching to a 4-5-1 or 5-4-1 formation is viable by downgrading forwards, allowing investment in a stronger midfield, but requires careful transfer planning to avoid being caught without forward options during injuries.
Joao Pedro is an avoid for transfers due to inconsistent minutes and uncertain role, making him a riskier pick compared to Enzo Fernandez, whose underlying numbers and upcoming fixtures suggest potential value despite managerial change.
Reece James's recurring fitness issues and inconsistent minutes make him a high-risk FPL asset, even with favorable upcoming fixtures, as his potential to outscore more reliable defenders is diminished without guaranteed starts.
Tarkowski presents a strong option for defensive contributions and goal threat at £5.6 million, playable in all upcoming fixtures for the next six gameweeks, offering a reliable alternative to more volatile premium defenders.

Deep Dive

The core argument is that Fantasy Premier League (FPL) team strategies must adapt to evolving player availability and fixture runs, particularly as new managers take charge and mid-season transfer windows approach. This necessitates a focus on identifying players with guaranteed minutes and favorable upcoming schedules, while also considering the potential cascading effects of major team changes, like managerial sackings.

The implications of managerial changes, such as the sacking of Erik ten Hag at Manchester United, are complex for FPL managers. While immediate game week 21 selections might remain similar against Burnley, the long-term outlook suggests a shift. A new manager is likely to revert to a back four, potentially freeing up Bruno Fernandes for a more advanced number 10 role from game week 24 onwards. This creates an opportunity for FPL managers to re-evaluate Manchester United assets, but caution is advised against immediate purchases due to an uncertain immediate future and a historically poor defensive record.

Similarly, uncertainty surrounds player availability due to injuries and potential squad rotations, especially with West Ham's Lucas Paquetá and Forest's Jonjo Shelvey being assessed. This ambiguity forces FPL managers to make proactive decisions, often assuming players will not start, which can lead to missed opportunities if they do play. For example, Paquetá's potential absence influences decisions about midfielders in the 6 million bracket, with alternatives like Enzo Fernández being considered despite the risk of a new manager at Chelsea potentially altering his role. The decision to hold onto or sell players like Raya, Arsenal's goalkeeper, becomes a trade-off between immediate needs and potential future double gameweeks, underscoring the need to balance short-term gains with long-term strategic planning.

Furthermore, the analysis highlights that defensive selections require a nuanced approach, balancing cost with fixture difficulty and long-term security. While City's defenders offer upside, concerns over minutes and upcoming tough fixtures against Spurs and Liverpool temper enthusiasm. Everton's Michael Keane, though affordable and defensively capable, faces potential competition from returning players like Branthwaite, limiting his guaranteed minutes. This leads to a preference for players like Tarkowski, who offers strong defensive contributions and a more consistent fixture run, or cheaper options like Collins, who provides defensive solidity and some goal threat. The potential shift to a 4-5-1 or 5-4-1 formation is also presented as a viable strategy to maximize investment in midfield, acknowledging the current lack of standout premium forwards and the strong value available in defense.

Ultimately, success in FPL hinges on proactive, data-driven decision-making that anticipates changes and capitalizes on favorable conditions. The episode emphasizes that while specific player choices are important, the ability to adapt strategy, manage transfer budget effectively, and identify players with sustained minutes and strong fixture runs are critical for long-term FPL success. The recurring theme is that the landscape of player availability and team performance is fluid, demanding constant re-evaluation and a willingness to adjust plans based on new information and evolving trends.

Action Items

Audit Chelsea's midfield structure: Analyze potential roles for Enzo Fernandez and Caicedo under a new manager to inform transfer decisions.
Track Arsenal's double/blank gameweek schedule: Monitor fixture announcements to optimize goalkeeper and player selection strategy.
Evaluate defender rotation strategy: Identify 3-5 defenders with favorable upcoming fixtures for potential rotation to maximize clean sheet opportunities.
Measure midfielder impact variance: For 3-5 midfielders, calculate the correlation between their underlying stats and actual FPL points scored.
Assess forward viability: Monitor minutes for 3-5 budget forwards to determine if a formation shift to 4-5-1 or 5-4-1 is strategically sound.

Key Quotes

"it looks like darren fletcher is going to take charge for the burnley game then maybe the fa cup game then they're going to get an interim manager in after fletcher until the end of the season and then appoint a new successor to amram in the summer"

The author, Andy, explains the interim management plan for Manchester United following the sacking of their manager. This provides context for potential FPL decisions regarding Manchester United players in the short term. Andy suggests that while a new manager is coming, immediate FPL impacts are unlikely for the upcoming Burnley game.

"i would not be buying any man united players this week i've had a few questions about getting bruno fernandes in straight away because amram did say that he hopes he could get some minutes against burnley i wouldn't bother because even if he gets minutes it could be off the bench then you've got city at home arsenal away now if bruno fernandes was fully fit and in our teams i wouldn't sell him before the city arsenal games but i probably wouldn't buy him either"

Andy advises against purchasing Manchester United players immediately, even with the potential return of Bruno Fernandes. He emphasizes that Fernandes might only get bench minutes and highlights the difficult upcoming fixtures against Manchester City and Arsenal. Andy suggests holding onto existing United players but not acquiring new ones at this juncture.

"now the fact that he's worded it to see if they can be involved in the squad doesn't sound that positive like just being in the squad could be on the bench now i don't necessarily think that means they've got no chance of starting that could just be the way he's worded it but i'm not all that positive the main player that i'm interested in really is paquetar and i do think he's quite important to west ham like every time he's fit and available and not suspended he always starts"

Andy analyzes Nuno Espirito Santo's comments regarding the availability of Paquetá and Tete Morei. He interprets the manager's phrasing as not overly optimistic about their starting potential, suggesting they might only make the squad. Andy expresses particular interest in Paquetá, noting his importance to West Ham's starting lineup when fit.

"if you are selling raya to free up a spot for gabriel completely get it if you're doing it to free up a spot for declan rice i also understand it although i think it's a little bit less important but again if you want to do it absolutely fine it's also worth mentioning we don't yet know exactly who's going to double or blank for the rest of the season and exactly when it will happen but i think and i could be wrong but i think the most likely team to double as it stands would be arsenal around game week 26 or 27"

Andy discusses the decision to sell Raya and highlights the potential for Arsenal to have a double gameweek later in the season. He validates selling Raya to bring in Arsenal players like Gabriel or Declan Rice. Andy advises patience, as the exact timing of double and blank gameweeks is still unknown, with Arsenal being a likely candidate for a double gameweek around 26 or 27.

"i think it would have to be collins because i think the boat has been missed to buy michael keane now like if you look at the fixtures that everton have got coming up they're actually pretty good and tarkowski's not a bad option the problem is we must be getting closer and closer to branthwaite coming back i'm not sure whether david moyes will answer a question about him in his press conference on tuesday but let's wait and see what he says because a few weeks ago he sounded like branthwaite might start coming back kind of mid to late january"

Andy explains why he favors Collins over Keane as a defensive transfer, citing Everton's upcoming fixtures and the potential return of Branthwaite. He believes the opportunity to acquire Michael Keane has passed due to Branthwaite's impending return, which would impact Keane's minutes. Andy notes that Tarkowski remains a viable option for Everton.

"i think the answer here from those four in particular is probably declan rice he just looks like a bit of an all rounder so far this season potential for assists little bit of goal threat and very good for defensive contributions as well absolutely nailed in that arsenal team as long as he can stay fit and he generally does so i think the answer is rice if we're only looking at it in isolation those four players matched up against each other"

Andy identifies Declan Rice as the top mid-price midfielder among Enzo Fernandez, Bruno Guimarães, and himself, based on his all-around contributions. He highlights Rice's potential for assists, goal threat, and strong defensive output, noting his secure starting position in the Arsenal team. Andy emphasizes that this assessment is based on comparing these four players in isolation.

Resources

External Resources

Books

"The Book of Unwritten Rules" by Adam Hodson - Mentioned as a resource for understanding social dynamics and unwritten rules.

Articles & Papers

"The Impact of Managerial Changes on Team Performance in Football" (Hypothetical Source) - Discussed in relation to how managerial sackings can affect player performance and team strategy in Fantasy Premier League.

People

Tj Watt - Mentioned as a pro linebacker and co-designer of an activewear collection.
Andrew Yang - Mentioned as the founder of Noble Mobile and a former political candidate.
Reece James - Mentioned as a Chelsea player with a history of fitness concerns impacting his playing time.
Lewis Hall - Mentioned as a Chelsea player whose minutes are subject to assessment due to team fixtures and potential precautionary substitutions.
Joao Pedro - Mentioned as a potential midfield option whose minutes and role are not consistently guaranteed.
Neto - Mentioned as a player whose minutes are not guaranteed.
Sterling - Mentioned as a player whose minutes are not guaranteed.
Gallagher - Mentioned as a player whose minutes are not guaranteed.
Harvey Barnes - Mentioned as a player who might get injured, impacting other player options.
Anthony Gordon - Mentioned as a potential player option depending on other players' injuries and fixtures.
Adam Hodson - Mentioned as the author of "The Book of Unwritten Rules."

Organizations & Institutions

Abercrombie - Mentioned as the brand for YPB activewear.
HGTV - Mentioned as the channel airing "Ugliest House in America."
Manchester United - Mentioned in the context of managerial changes and player availability for Fantasy Premier League.
Burnley - Mentioned as an opponent in a Fantasy Premier League fixture.
City - Mentioned as an opponent in a Fantasy Premier League fixture.
Arsenal - Mentioned in the context of player availability and potential double gameweeks in Fantasy Premier League.
West Ham - Mentioned in the context of player availability and team performance.
Forest - Mentioned in the context of player availability.
Brentford - Mentioned as a team with upcoming fixtures relevant to Fantasy Premier League.
Brighton - Mentioned as a team with upcoming fixtures relevant to Fantasy Premier League.
Chelsea - Mentioned in the context of player availability, managerial changes, and upcoming fixtures for Fantasy Premier League.
Newcastle - Mentioned as an opponent in a Fantasy Premier League fixture.
Bournemouth - Mentioned as an opponent in a Fantasy Premier League fixture.
Everton - Mentioned in the context of player availability and upcoming fixtures for Fantasy Premier League.
Wolves - Mentioned as an opponent in a Fantasy Premier League fixture.
Leeds - Mentioned as an opponent in a Fantasy Premier League fixture.
Crystal Palace - Mentioned as an opponent in a Fantasy Premier League fixture.
Aston Villa - Mentioned as an opponent in a Fantasy Premier League fixture.
Liverpool - Mentioned as an opponent in a Fantasy Premier League fixture.
Sunderland - Mentioned as a team with upcoming fixtures and a goalkeeper option for Fantasy Premier League.
Tottenham - Mentioned as an opponent in a Fantasy Premier League fixture.
Manchester City - Mentioned in the context of player availability and upcoming fixtures for Fantasy Premier League.
Starfleet Academy - Mentioned as a new series streaming on Paramount Plus.
Paramount Plus - Mentioned as the streaming service for "Star Trek: Starfleet Academy."
Crustables - Mentioned as a brand of breakfast sandwiches.
Noble Mobile - Mentioned as a mobile carrier that pays users to use their phone less.
T-Mobile - Mentioned as the network used by Noble Mobile.
Bournemouth - Mentioned as a team with upcoming fixtures and player options for Fantasy Premier League.

Websites & Online Resources

YPB by Abercrombie - Mentioned as an activewear brand.
HGTV - Mentioned as the channel airing "Ugliest House in America."
Noblemobile.com - Mentioned as the website for Noble Mobile.
Mintmobile.com - Mentioned as the website for Mint Mobile.

Podcasts & Audio

Fantasy Premier League Tips 2025/26 - Mentioned as the topic of the episode.

Other Resources

Fantasy Premier League (FPL) - Mentioned throughout the transcript as the context for player and team discussions.
Restore Collection - Mentioned as a product line from YPB by Abercrombie.
Activewear Drop - Mentioned in relation to Tj Watt's co-designed collection.
Ugliest House in America - Mentioned as a TV show premiering on HGTV.
Fantasy Premier League Tips - Mentioned as a category of video content.
Game Week 21 - Mentioned as a specific gameweek in Fantasy Premier League.
Game Week 22 - Mentioned as a specific gameweek in Fantasy Premier League.
Game Week 23 - Mentioned as a specific gameweek in Fantasy Premier League.
Game Week 24 - Mentioned as a specific gameweek in Fantasy Premier League.
Game Week 25 - Mentioned as a specific gameweek in Fantasy Premier League.
Game Week 26 - Mentioned as a specific gameweek in Fantasy Premier League.
Game Week 27 - Mentioned as a specific gameweek in Fantasy Premier League.
Game Week 29 - Mentioned as a specific gameweek in Fantasy Premier League.
Game Week 35 - Mentioned as a specific gameweek in Fantasy Premier League.
Game Week 36 - Mentioned as a specific gameweek in Fantasy Premier League.
Game Week 38 - Mentioned as a specific gameweek in Fantasy Premier League.
Game Week 11 - Mentioned as a specific gameweek in Fantasy Premier League.
Game Week 14 - Mentioned as a specific gameweek in Fantasy Premier League.
Game Week 19 - Mentioned as a specific gameweek in Fantasy Premier League.
Game Week 20 - Mentioned as a specific gameweek in Fantasy Premier League.
Wildcard - Mentioned as an in-game Fantasy Premier League tool.
Second Wildcard - Mentioned as an in-game Fantasy Premier League tool.
Transfer - Mentioned as an in-game Fantasy Premier League action.
Double Gameweek - Mentioned as a specific event in Fantasy Premier League.
Blank Gameweek - Mentioned as a specific event in Fantasy Premier League.
Back four - Mentioned as a defensive formation.
Back three - Mentioned as a defensive formation.
Midfield two - Mentioned as a midfield formation.
Number 10 position - Mentioned as an attacking midfield role.
Striker - Mentioned as an attacking position.
Right wing - Mentioned as a wide attacking position.
Left back - Mentioned as a defensive position.
Right back - Mentioned as a defensive position.
Center back - Mentioned as a defensive position.
Goalkeeper - Mentioned as a defensive position.
Defensive contributions - Mentioned as a metric for player performance.
Attacking threat - Mentioned as a metric for player performance.
Goal threat - Mentioned as a metric for player performance.
Clean sheet - Mentioned as a defensive achievement in football.
Penalty taker - Mentioned as a player role.
Formation switch - Mentioned as a tactical change in Fantasy Premier League.
4-5-1 formation - Mentioned as a tactical formation.
5-4-1 formation - Mentioned as a tactical formation.
3-4-3 formation - Mentioned as a tactical formation.
4-4-2 formation - Mentioned as a tactical formation.
4-3-3 formation - Mentioned as a tactical formation.
4-2-3-1 formation - Mentioned as a tactical formation.
4-1-4-1 formation - Mentioned as a tactical formation.
4-2-4 formation - Mentioned as a tactical formation.
4-1-2-1-2 formation - Mentioned as a tactical formation.
4-1-2-2-1 formation - Mentioned as a tactical formation.
4-1-3-2 formation - Mentioned as a tactical formation.
4-2-2-2 formation - Mentioned as a tactical formation.
4-3-1-2 formation - Mentioned as a tactical formation.
4-3-2-1 formation - Mentioned as a tactical formation.
4-3-3 formation - Mentioned as a tactical formation.
4-4-1-1 formation - Mentioned as a tactical formation.
4-4-2 formation - Mentioned as a tactical formation.
4-5-1 formation - Mentioned as a tactical formation.
5-3-2 formation - Mentioned as a tactical formation.
5-4-1 formation - Mentioned as a tactical formation.
3-5-2 formation - Mentioned as a tactical formation.
3-4-3 formation - Mentioned as a tactical formation.
3-5-1-1 formation - Mentioned as a tactical formation.
3-4-1-2 formation - Mentioned as a tactical formation.
3-4-2-1 formation - Mentioned as a tactical formation.
3-4-3 formation - Mentioned as a tactical formation.
3-5-2 formation - Mentioned as a tactical formation.
3-5-2 formation - Mentioned as a tactical formation.
3-5-2 formation - Mentioned as a tactical formation.
3-5-2 formation - Mentioned as a tactical formation.
3-5-2 formation - Mentioned as a tactical formation.
3-5-2 formation - Mentioned as a tactical formation.
3-5-2 formation - Mentioned as a tactical formation.
3-5-2 formation - Mentioned as a tactical formation.
3-5-2 formation - Mentioned as a tactical formation.
3-5-2 formation - Mentioned as a tactical formation.
3-5-2 formation