FPL Player and Chip Strategy Amidst Fixture Uncertainty - Episode Hero Image

FPL Player and Chip Strategy Amidst Fixture Uncertainty

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TL;DR

  • Igor Thiago's recent scoring run, despite a difficult upcoming fixture run, positions him as the second-best forward option behind Haaland, offering better value than more expensive alternatives like Watkins or Ekitike.
  • Cole Palmer's low ownership and favorable upcoming fixtures make him a significant differential, though his minutes are not consistently 90, suggesting waiting until Gameweek 24 might be prudent.
  • Phil Foden's recent five-game blank streak, while extreme, does not negate his underlying potential, making him a hold for the next two favorable fixtures rather than an immediate sell.
  • Matheus Cunha is a sellable asset due to challenging fixtures and potential competition for minutes, but playing him against Manchester City is a reasonable option if immediate transfers are not prioritized.
  • Chip strategy, including Wildcard, Free Hit, and Bench Boost, should be delayed until more information is available regarding blank and double Gameweeks, particularly Gameweek 31 and 34.
  • The optimal time for a Wildcard is likely Gameweek 32 or later, allowing for maximum flexibility to navigate blank and double Gameweeks, rather than early adoption for perceived fixture advantages.

Deep Dive

Igor Thiago's recent surge of five goals from open play in two matches positions him as the second-best forward option behind Haaland, despite a challenging upcoming fixture run. While his current form makes him an attractive pick, the analysis suggests caution against chasing his recent haul, particularly with a difficult away fixture against Chelsea. The long-term fixture schedule also presents challenges, indicating that while keeping Thiago is reasonable, new acquisitions should be considered strategically in Gameweek 23 rather than immediately. This nuanced view on Thiago highlights the FPL principle that player value is not static and must be constantly assessed against fixtures and form.

Cole Palmer represents a significant differential opportunity due to Chelsea's favorable fixture run from Gameweek 24 to 27. His recent minutes have been positive, suggesting he can be acquired with one or two transfers without severely disrupting team structure. However, Palmer is not deemed an essential immediate transfer, as there are valid reasons to wait until Gameweek 24, allowing for more information on his fitness and Chelsea's other competitions to emerge. This approach prioritizes flexibility and information gathering over immediate acquisition, acknowledging that FPL decisions often involve trade-offs.

Phil Foden's recent five-game blank streak has led to a price drop and player frustration. Despite this poor run, the analysis maintains that Foden remains a reasonable hold for the next two fixtures against Manchester United and Wolves, as the likelihood of continued blanks is low. The implication is that extreme reactions to short-term form can be detrimental; Foden's underlying quality suggests a return to points is probable. Selling him is not advised unless it facilitates a more pressing team transfer, such as acquiring Bruno Fernandes, but even then, delaying such a move until Gameweek 24 is suggested.

Matheus Cunha is identified as a "sellable" asset due to challenging upcoming fixtures and potential competition for minutes at Manchester United. While not a definitive sell, his situation warrants consideration for transfer, particularly if it frees up funds for more promising assets like Enzo Fernandez. The analysis emphasizes that while Cunha might not become a significant problem, his lack of penalty duties and uncertain minute projections make him a candidate for replacement, especially when considering longer-term team structure and fixture advantages.

The Blank and Double Gameweek (BGW/DGw) schedule, particularly for Gameweeks 31 and 34, remains largely uncertain. These blanks are primarily linked to the Carabao Cup final and FA Cup semi-finals, with the exact teams involved and the subsequent double gameweeks yet to be determined. This lack of clarity strongly advises against significant chip strategy decisions at this juncture. The primary implication is that patience is paramount; decisions regarding Wildcards, Free Hits, Bench Boosts, and Triple Captains should be deferred until more information becomes available, likely by Gameweek 24, to maximize their impact.

The speaker's personal team analysis reveals a cautious approach, prioritizing stability and information gathering over immediate, potentially costly transfers. Despite some player concerns, like Paqueta's minutes and Szoboszlai's positional uncertainty, the current fixture list allows for holding these assets. The focus is on accumulating transfers to facilitate desired moves by Gameweek 24, such as acquiring Chelsea assets and Bruno Fernandes, rather than making reactive transfers or using a wildcard prematurely. This strategy highlights the long-term planning required in FPL, where managing transfers and information flow is as crucial as identifying individual player form.

Action Items

  • Audit player performance metrics: For 3-5 key players, track goal contributions vs. expected goals (xG) over 5-game periods to identify potential over/underperformance.
  • Create player evaluation framework: Define criteria for assessing player value beyond recent form, considering fixture difficulty and long-term potential for 3-5 players.
  • Analyze team structure impact: For 3-5 player transfers, calculate the net change in squad flexibility and future transfer potential after each move.
  • Track fixture difficulty impact: For 5-10 players, measure performance variance against their projected points based on upcoming fixture difficulty ratings.
  • Develop chip strategy scenarios: Outline 2-3 potential chip usage plans (e.g., Wildcard, Free Hit) based on projected blank and double gameweek schedules.

Related Episodes

Key Quotes

"Suddenly, he looks like a great pick again. At 7.1 million, he's not that expensive and basically plays 90 minutes every game. He was subbed early against Sunderland, but they were three-nil up, and he took a knock, so I think he's fine moving forward. He's on penalties, which is an added bonus. Outside of Haaland, he's probably the next best forward to own."

The author argues that Igor Thiago has become an attractive Fantasy Premier League (FPL) option due to his recent goal-scoring form and consistent playing time. The author highlights his reasonable price point and penalty-taking ability as key advantages, positioning him as a strong alternative to the premium forward option, Haaland.

"The reality was the most likely outcome was the points would dry up a little bit, although I will say I think this is a bit of an extreme outcome. Fair enough, he's not going to get 10+ points every week, but for him to get zero returns in the last five, I'm not sure that would happen again if we replayed those five matches. He's been a bit unlucky to not get a single return."

The author suggests that Phil Foden's recent run of poor FPL returns, characterized by five consecutive games without a goal or assist, is an unusually extreme outcome. The author believes that Foden's lack of returns is partly due to bad luck and that a repeat of this performance over the next few matches is unlikely, implying he remains a potentially valuable asset.

"So overall, 24 to 27 looks great. Should you rush in to buy him this week? Maybe. I think in terms of minutes, there's a bit of positivity to be had. His last three matches were 74, 90, and 62 minutes, and he's actually started the last five: 74, 90, 62, 71, 79. So I think it is quite positive that he came through the last three matches with no injury issues, bearing in mind the growing problem we had and that it's over Christmas, so the games came quite quickly."

The author points out Cole Palmer's favorable upcoming fixture schedule from Gameweek 24 to 27, indicating a strong period for his FPL performance. The author also notes positive signs regarding Palmer's recent playing time, highlighting his consistent starts and ability to play significant minutes without apparent injury concerns, suggesting he could be a good acquisition.

"We will have a blank Gameweek in Gameweek 31. That's based off the Carabao Cup final. So there will be two matches that are not played in Gameweek 31. It'll be whoever gets to the Carabao Cup final plus their opponents."

The author explains that Gameweek 31 is confirmed as a blank Gameweek due to the Carabao Cup final. The author clarifies that this means two specific matches, involving the finalists and their respective opponents, will not take place during that Gameweek, impacting FPL team selections.

"I know a lot of people are talking about wildcard 24, and I know some people are going wildcard this week because they think the team looks quite similar to what it would be in 24, so why not get ahead of the curve? I don't hate it; that could work really well. I just don't have enough information right now to tell you that that's terrible, and in that case, I'd rather be cautious and not blow my wildcard early because it might be the blanks and doubles falling away where having your wildcard later is just amazing for a lot of points."

The author discusses the timing of using the wildcard chip in FPL, acknowledging the appeal of using it early for Gameweek 24 or even the current week. However, the author expresses caution, preferring to wait for more information about future blank and double Gameweeks, believing that a later wildcard use could yield more significant FPL points.

Resources

External Resources

Books

  • "The Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy" by Douglas Adams - Mentioned as an example of a book that is not a Fantasy Premier League (FPL) resource.

Articles & Papers

  • "The Athletic" - Mentioned as a source for sports news and analysis.

People

  • Andy - Host of the FPL video.
  • Cole Palmer - Chelsea player discussed for FPL potential.
  • Ekitike - Player discussed in relation to FPL forward options.
  • Elliot Anderson - Player mentioned as a potential FPL option.
  • Emerson - Player mentioned in a potential transfer scenario.
  • Enzo Fernandez - Chelsea player discussed for FPL potential.
  • Fletcher - Mentioned as the current manager of Manchester United.
  • Foden - Manchester City player discussed for FPL potential.
  • Gabriel - Arsenal player discussed for FPL potential.
  • Gomez - Player mentioned in relation to injury concerns.
  • Haaland - Player discussed as a top FPL forward option.
  • Henderson - Player mentioned as a potential FPL option.
  • Igor Thiago - Player discussed for FPL potential.
  • Lewis Hall - Newcastle player discussed for FPL potential.
  • Madueke - Player mentioned as a potential substitute for Saka.
  • Mane - Player mentioned in a potential transfer scenario.
  • Mason Mount - Player mentioned in relation to Manchester United's left wing options.
  • Mateus Kuni - Manchester United player discussed for FPL potential.
  • Mitoma - Player discussed in relation to FPL midfielder options.
  • Paccatar - Player discussed for FPL potential and injury concerns.
  • Palmer - Player discussed for FPL potential.
  • Rice - Player mentioned as performing well in FPL.
  • Saka - Arsenal player discussed for FPL potential and captaincy considerations.
  • Saboslai - Player discussed for FPL potential and positional uncertainty.
  • Saliba - Arsenal player discussed in relation to potential double gameweeks.
  • Sonessi - Player mentioned in relation to FPL forward options.
  • Thiago - Player discussed for FPL potential and recent performance.
  • Timber - Arsenal player discussed in relation to potential double gameweeks.
  • Tavar - Player mentioned as a nailed-on Bournemouth player.
  • Verstappen - Player mentioned in a potential transfer scenario.
  • Watkins - Player discussed in relation to FPL forward options.
  • Wolves - Team mentioned in relation to FPL fixtures.

Organizations & Institutions

  • Arsenal - Team mentioned in relation to FPL fixtures and chip strategy.
  • Bournemouth - Team mentioned in relation to FPL fixtures.
  • Burnley - Team mentioned in relation to FPL fixtures.
  • Chelsea - Team mentioned in relation to FPL fixtures and potential wildcard strategy.
  • Everton - Team mentioned in relation to FPL fixtures.
  • Fantasy Premier League (FPL) - The subject of the discussion.
  • Leeds - Team mentioned in relation to FPL fixtures.
  • Liverpool - Team mentioned in relation to FPL fixtures.
  • Manchester City - Team mentioned in relation to FPL fixtures and chip strategy.
  • Manchester United - Team mentioned in relation to FPL fixtures and manager changes.
  • Newcastle - Team mentioned in relation to FPL fixtures and chip strategy.
  • Palace - Team mentioned in relation to FPL fixtures.
  • Premier League - The league discussed in the context of FPL.
  • Sunderland - Team mentioned in relation to FPL fixtures.
  • Tottenham - Team mentioned in relation to FPL fixtures.
  • Wolves - Team mentioned in relation to FPL fixtures.

Websites & Online Resources

  • Blue Apron - Meal kit company mentioned as a sponsor.
  • Hulu - Streaming service mentioned in relation to "Will Trent".
  • Lifelock - Identity theft protection service mentioned as a sponsor.
  • McDonald's - Fast food chain mentioned as a sponsor.
  • Sports Social Podcast Network - Mentioned as the network for the podcast.
  • athletic brewing dot com - Website for Athletic Brewing Company.
  • blueapron.com - Website for Blue Apron.
  • lifelock.com/podcast - Website for Lifelock.

Other Resources

  • Blank Gameweek 31 - Mentioned in relation to chip strategy.
  • Carabao Cup - Competition mentioned in relation to blank gameweeks.
  • Double Gameweek 26 - Mentioned in relation to chip strategy.
  • Double Gameweek 33 - Mentioned in relation to chip strategy.
  • Double Gameweek 36 - Mentioned in relation to chip strategy.
  • FA Cup - Competition mentioned in relation to blank gameweeks.
  • Fantasy Premier League Chips - Mentioned in relation to strategy.
  • Non-alcoholic beer - Product category discussed in relation to Athletic Brewing Company.
  • Wildcard - An FPL chip discussed in relation to strategy.

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