Weekend Horse Racing Previews: Favorites and Value Bets
TL;DR
- AmWager offers new customers a $150 signup bonus plus an instant $10 bonus for HRRN listeners, incentivizing platform adoption and immediate engagement with wagering tools.
- The Go For Wand Stakes features Way The Risks as the favorite, a horse in "torrid form" with strong tactical speed, indicating a high probability of winning against this field.
- In the LA Champions Day Ladies Turf, Rising Inflation is a contrarian pick against the favorite Highly Wicked, suggesting trainer intuition about turf suitability may outweigh pedigree concerns.
- Secret Faith is the strong favorite in the LA Champions Day Sprint, demonstrating dominance in the Louisiana-bred three-year-old filly competition with a 10-for-13 lifetime record.
- Touch Upon A Star is the overwhelming favorite in the LA Champions Day Classic, with a 18-for-25 record and over $1.5 million earned, indicating a significant class advantage.
- The Tropical Park Derby features Tis Dashing as a strong contender, coming off a Grade 3 win and potentially benefiting from a less competitive field compared to other options.
- Skelly is favored in the Ring the Bell Stakes at Oaklawn Park, demonstrating a significant performance advantage on this specific track with a 10-for-12 record.
Deep Dive
The weekend's horse racing slate features a series of competitive stakes races across North America, with a strong emphasis on Louisiana Champions Day at Fair Grounds and several notable events at Aqueduct, Gulfstream Park, and Oaklawn Park. While many races present intriguing betting opportunities, the consensus among handicappers leans towards favorites with proven track records and current strong form, particularly in the Go For Wand at Aqueduct and the Louisiana Champions Day Classic at Fair Grounds. However, the potential for value exists in races with more open fields, such as the Tropical Park Oaks and the Champions Day Turf, where less obvious contenders could offer attractive odds.
The Go For Wand stakes at Aqueduct highlights a field of fillies and mares, with "Way the Risks" identified as the clear favorite due to her current torrid form and consistent performance for trainer Chad Brown. While other contenders like "Scalable" and "Just Catherine" are noted for their potential, the prevailing sentiment is that "Way the Risks" is the most reliable option. Louisiana Champions Day at Fair Grounds presents a packed card, with "Touch Upon a Star" heavily favored in the Classic, boasting an impressive record and significant earnings. In the Ladies' Sprint, "Secret Faith" is expected to dominate, while the Ladies' Turf and Sprint races offer more debated outcomes, with "Rising Inflation" and "Eldeno Nero" respectively identified as potential upset candidates or strong contenders.
Beyond Louisiana, Gulfstream Park hosts the Tropical Park Oaks and Derby, with "Destino Doro" and "Tis Dashing" favored in their respective races, though the latter is noted for potentially facing easier competition than initially expected. Oaklawn Park's Ring the Bell stakes features "Skelly" as a strong favorite, a horse known for exceptional performance at that track, while the Astral Spa stakes for juvenile fillies sees "Counting Stars" as the morning line favorite despite a recent subpar performance, with handicappers believing she is capable of a turnaround. Woodbine's La Providencia and Steady Growth stakes also feature favorites with potential advantages, such as "Hurricane Claire" in the La Providencia due to perceived lone speed and "Souped Up" in the Steady Growth, favored for his preference for the synthetic surface and freshness. The overarching theme across these previews is the recognition of horses in peak form, those with a clear historical advantage at specific tracks, and the potential for value in more competitive, open races.
Action Items
- Audit authentication flow: Identify and document 3 common vulnerability classes (e.g., SQL injection, XSS, CSRF) across 10 critical endpoints.
- Create runbook template: Define 5 essential sections (setup, common failures, rollback, monitoring, escalation) to standardize operational documentation.
- Track 5-10 high-variance events per race (e.g., unexpected pace, jockey changes) to measure outcome impact on betting pools.
- Measure performance disconnect: For 3-5 races, calculate correlation between morning line odds and final odds to identify market inefficiencies.
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View Episode Notes →Key Quotes
"I see a some pretty hard to deny shock in the first half of the show but things should loosen up price wise in the second half."
Bob Nastanovich suggests that the early races in the handicapping preview might feature favorites with low odds, but the later races are expected to offer better betting opportunities with higher prices. This indicates a strategic approach to handicapping, looking for value beyond the obvious contenders.
"amwager is giving away money folks new customers get a 150 signup bonus plus an instant 10 bonus for hrrn listeners go to link amwager com hrrn you'll get 10 instantly for signing up then deposit 150 bet 150 and get a 150 lump sum bonus it is that easy"
This quote highlights a promotional offer from AmWager, detailing a multi-tiered bonus structure for new customers who sign up through a specific link. Bobby Neuman emphasizes the ease of the sign-up and bonus process, encouraging listeners to take advantage of the offer.
"she's simply didn't do anywhere near his good on the main track she's nine for nine on the turf three for three here won this only by a head last year but i feel like the competition was better last year"
Bob Nastanovich discusses the horse "highly wicked," noting her strong performance on turf, with a perfect record of nine starts and nine wins. He contrasts this with her less impressive main track performances and suggests that while she won this race last year, the competition might have been tougher then.
"the undeniable favorite highly wicked six to five in the morning line more likely to be two to five or three to five marcelina petroza must really love this mare he's won a lot of money and a lot of races on her daughter of wicked strong out of a rahee mare"
Bob Nastanovich identifies "highly wicked" as the strong favorite for an upcoming race, predicting her odds will shorten significantly from the morning line. He also notes the jockey, Marcelina Petroza, has a successful history with the mare, who is by Wicked Strong.
"the only one absent and uh if you're going to the races betting the races tomorrow at fairgrounds gorgeous weather high 76 low 58 so we should definitely have fast and firm there's some good turf races as well"
Bob Nastanovich mentions the absence of a specific horse, "like a girl," from the Louisiana Champions Day races. He then shifts to discussing the favorable weather conditions at Fair Grounds, predicting a fast and firm turf course suitable for good racing.
"i'm going to go to the inside and cruden bay it's purely a pace play in this spot aside from paramount prince it looks like there are two or three others that really want to be forwardly placed i even though inside and and in front has been good most of the meet at at woodbine i i just think somebody has to be able to close in this spot and cruden bay who should be able to save ground most of the way around certainly looks like one of the more effective closers in the race"
Bobby Neuman explains his handicapping choice of "Cruden Bay" in a Woodbine race, identifying it as a "pace play." He anticipates a fast early pace with multiple horses wanting to lead, creating an opportunity for a closer like Cruden Bay to succeed, especially if it can save ground.
Resources
External Resources
Books
- "The Equine Forum" by Kurt Becker - Mentioned as a weekly program that takes listeners on a stroll through racing history.
Articles & Papers
- "Blood Horse Daily" - Mentioned as a source for the latest headlines, breaking thoroughbred racing and breeding news, race results, and analysis.
People
- Kurt Becker - Host of "The Equine Forum" and contributor to "A Stroll Through Racing History."
- Mike Penna - Host of "The Equine Forum."
- Rajiv Maraj - Jockey reflecting on his 2000th career win.
- Brad Cox - Trainer discussing his top juveniles.
- Griffin Johnson - Owner and social media influencer sharing his racing experience.
- Billy Badgett Jr. - Retired trainer remembering Go For Wand.
- Joe Kristufek - Contributor providing three races to watch in "Triple Play."
- Dale Romans - Contributor discussing hot topics in racing on "I Ask, They Answer."
- Tim Wilken - Contributor discussing hot topics in racing on "I Ask, They Answer."
- Bobby Newman - Co-host of "AmWager Weekend Stakes Preview" and host of "Betting with Bobby."
- Bob Nastanovich - Co-host of "AmWager Weekend Stakes Preview."
- Angela Herman - Discussed races with Bobby Newman.
- Irad Ortiz - Jockey, mentioned for potentially riding at Turfway Park instead of Woodbine.
- Tyler Gaffalione - Jockey, mentioned as taking over mounts from Irad Ortiz.
- Julian Leparoux - Jockey, mentioned for his partnership with trainer Bob Hess and for riding "Caroline's."
- San Francisco Santana - Jockey, mentioned for riding "Skelly."
- Jose Ortiz - Jockey, mentioned for riding "Blue Fire," "Hey Jude," and "All Night Moonlight."
- Jareth Lovell - Jockey, mentioned for his partnership with trainer Pat Devarro.
- Ramon Vasquez - Jockey, mentioned for his partnership with trainer Mike Maker.
- Paco Lopez - Jockey, mentioned for riding "Not on Herb."
- David Egan - Jockey, mentioned for his partnership with trainer Riley Mott.
- Rafael Hernandez - Jockey, mentioned for riding "One More Time" and "Souped Up."
- Mike Husband - Jockey, mentioned for riding "Church and State."
- Gill - Jockey, mentioned for riding "Super Force."
- Danny Pish - Trainer, mentioned for his works in the mud and for his partnership with jockey Shariana.
- Chad Brown - Trainer, mentioned for "Way the Risks" and for previously training "Rising Inflation."
- Todd Pletcher - Trainer, mentioned for "Scalable."
- Kendrick Carmouche - Jockey, mentioned for riding "Scalable."
- Mike Proppoli - Mentioned in relation to "Scalable."
- Bill Badgett - Trainer of Go For Wand.
- Mark Casse - Trainer, mentioned for "One More Time," "Chapman's Peak," "Hurricane Claire," and "Caroline's."
- Pietro Moran - Jockey, mentioned for his successful season and for riding "Awesome Bourbon."
- Ron Saddler - Trainer, mentioned for his good year and for training "Souped Up."
- Kevin Attard - Trainer, mentioned for "War Painter."
- Mike Maker - Trainer, mentioned for his partnership with jockey Ramon Vasquez.
- Lindsay Schultz - Trainer, mentioned for "Caroline's."
- Robert Medina - Trainer, mentioned for "Debbie Doll."
- Ian Wilkes - Trainer, mentioned for "Counting Stars."
- Catherine Dephillips - Trainer, mentioned for "Rapid Test."
- Mike Lakin - Director of Racing at Gulfstream Park.
- Kathleen O'Connell - Trainer, mentioned in relation to an EHV-1 positive case.
- Greg Sacca - Mentioned in relation to quarantined barns.
- Michael Yates - Mentioned in relation to quarantined barns.
- Mike Ferraro - Mentioned in relation to quarantined barns.
- John Sadler - Former trainer of "Super Speed."
- Brian Lynch - Trainer, mentioned for "Super Speed."
- Brad Cox - Trainer, mentioned for "Destino Doro" and "Chapman's Peak."
- Riley Mott - Trainer, mentioned for "It Ain't Two."
- Edgard Zayas - Jockey, mentioned for riding "Destino Doro."
- Patty Turner - Trainer, mentioned for "Pagaso."
- James Graham - Jockey, mentioned for riding "Benoit" and "Pagaso."
- Brent Brinkman - Trainer, mentioned for "Kagematoli."
- Tommy Pompell - Jockey, mentioned for riding "Kagematoli."
- Samuel Bro - Trainer, mentioned for "Woods and Water" and "All Night Moonlight."
- Michelle Lovell - Trainer, mentioned for "Wicked Secret."
- Jared Lovell - Jockey, mentioned for riding "Elden Nero."
- Pat Devarro - Trainer, mentioned for "Elden Nero."
- David Jacobson - Trainer, mentioned for "Banishing My Word."
- Luis Saez - Jockey, mentioned for riding "Banishing My Word" and "Skelly."
- Brendan Walsh - Former trainer of "Banishing My Word."
- Bob Hess - Trainer, mentioned for his partnership with jockey Julian Leparoux.
- Julian Leparoux - Jockey, mentioned for riding "Caroline's."
- Ron Saddler - Trainer, mentioned for "Souped Up."
- Kevin D. O'Connell - Trainer, mentioned for "Hurricane Claire."
- Marty Drexler - Trainer, mentioned for "Hurricane Claire."
- Flores - Jockey, mentioned for riding "Hurricane Claire."
- Dave Rousseau - Trainer, mentioned for "Church and State."
- Steve Owens - Trainer, mentioned for "Church and State."
- Mike Trombetta - Trainer, mentioned for "Super Willa Lot" and "Super Force."
- Jorge Ruiz - Jockey, mentioned for riding "Super Willa Lot."
- Cassy - Trainer, mentioned for "One More Time."
- Castellano - Jockey, mentioned for riding "One More Time" and "Tis Dashing."
- Tiz Dashing - Jockey, mentioned for riding "Tis Dashing."
- Gio Costa - Mentioned in relation to "Chapman's Peak."
- Mike Maker - Trainer, mentioned for "Victory Music."
- Carolyn Caroline - Jockey, mentioned for riding "Caroline's."
- Lindsay Schultz - Trainer, mentioned for "Caroline's."
- Larry O'Malley - Former trainer of "Debbie Doll."
- Robert Medina - Trainer, mentioned for "Debbie Doll."
- Donnie Pish - Trainer, mentioned for "Walk Away K."
- Shariana - Jockey, mentioned for riding "Walk Away K."
Organizations & Institutions
- Horse Racing Radio Network (HRRN) - Primary broadcast platform for the "AmWager Weekend Stakes Preview."
- AmWager - Wagering platform offering bonuses and tools for horseplayers.
- Pro Football Focus (PFF) - Data source for player grading.
- NFL (National Football League) - Primary subject of sports discussion.
- New England Patriots - Mentioned as an example team for performance analysis.
- Tampa Bay Downs - Racetrack with quarantined barns due to EHV-1 positive case.
- University of Florida - Where the EHV-1 positive horse was sent.
- Gulfstream Park - Racetrack implementing precautions regarding horses racing at Tampa Bay Downs.
- Palm Meadows - Training facility implementing precautions regarding horses racing at Tampa Bay Downs.
- Keeneland - Mentioned as a venue for racing and as a sponsor of "A Stroll Through Racing History."
- Oaklawn Park - Racetrack hosting several stakes races discussed.
- Fair Grounds - Racetrack hosting Louisiana Champions Day stakes.
- Woodbine - Racetrack hosting stakes races discussed.
- Presque Isle - Racetrack where "Super Force" won a race.
- Colonial Downs - Racetrack where "Super Force" raced on turf.
- Remington Park - Racetrack mentioned in relation to "Skelly's" performance.
- Santa Anita - Racetrack where "Super Speed" raced and where the "AmWager Weekend Stakes Preview" will cover opening day.
- Turfway Park - Racetrack where Irad Ortiz may ride.
- Del Mar - Racetrack where "Tis Dashing" could have raced.
- Churchill Downs - Racetrack where "Blue Fire," "Secret Faith," "Rising Inflation," "Banishing My Word," "Roll On Big Joe," "Super Speed," "Tis Dashing," "Rapid Test," "Victory Music," and "Counting Stars" have raced.
- Aqueduct - Racetrack hosting the Go For Wand stakes.
- Gulfstream Park - Racetrack hosting the Tropical Park Oaks and Derby.
- Evangeline Downs - Racetrack where "Rising Inflation" and "Walk Away K" have raced.
- Lad - Racetrack where "Rising Inflation" has raced.
- Monmouth Park - Racetrack where "Rising Inflation" raced.
- The Blood Horse - Publication providing news updates.
- American Psychiatric Association Foundation - Sponsor of a mental health message.
- Ad Council - Sponsor of various public service announcements.
- US Forest Service - Sponsor of "Discover the Forest."
- Fatherhood.gov - Website providing information on fatherhood.
- SheCanStem.org - Website promoting STEM for girls.
- University of Louisville Equine Industry Program and College of Business - Sponsor of "I Ask, They Answer."
- Live Oak Plantation - Breeder of "Super Force."
- Three Diamonds Farm - Breeder of "Victory Music."
- Arkansas Bred - Mentioned in relation to "Walk Away K."
- New York Bred - Mentioned in relation to "Honest Mischief."
Websites & Online Resources
- link.amwager.com/hrrn - URL for signing up for AmWager and receiving bonuses.
- bloodhorse.com/daily - Website for "The Blood Horse Daily."
- doihaveprediabetes.org - Website for a pre-diabetes risk test.
- donorschoose.org - Non-profit website for supporting students and teachers.
- discovertheforest.org - Website for finding local parks.
- horseracingradio.net - Website for Horse Racing Radio Network content and archives.
- horseracingradio.net - Website for Horse Racing