Strategic Influences Shape Horse Racing's Derby Points and Race Valuations - Episode Hero Image

Strategic Influences Shape Horse Racing's Derby Points and Race Valuations

Horse Racing Radio Network · · Listen to Original Episode →
Original Title:

TL;DR

  • The San Vicente Stakes not being a Kentucky Derby points qualifier is attributed to competition between track owners, suggesting a strategic decision by non-Churchill Downs entities to withhold points from races at their venues.
  • The Sunshine Classic and Sunshine Filly & Mare Turf purses are criticized as "shocking" and "inexcusable" at $75,000, especially when compared to higher purses for allowance optional claimers, highlighting a potential devaluation of these stakes races.
  • The Pasco Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs, a race that has historically produced notable sprinters, will not be run this year due to a lack of entries, indicating a potential decline in the race's appeal or participation.
  • The discussion around Eclipse Awards for sprint champions Ben Tornado and Bookem Danno highlights a voter's dilemma between rewarding participation in major races (Ben Tornado in the Breeders' Cup) versus consistent dominance (Bookem Danno), revealing a tension between presence and performance.
  • The text suggests that the main track at Del Mar played to a strong pace bias during the Breeders' Cup, potentially disadvantaging off-the-pace runners like Bookem Danno and influencing the outcome of major sprint races.
  • The claim that "most people out here help out friends and family when they need it but the funny thing is most of us won't look for help when we need it" frames mental health support as a community expectation versus individual action, implying a societal barrier to seeking help.

Deep Dive

The AmWager Weekend Stakes Preview podcast highlights the strategic importance of race placement and pedigree, revealing how track ownership and promotional incentives influence the Kentucky Derby points system. This system's susceptibility to influence by major racing conglomerates, rather than purely meritocratic criteria, suggests that early-season graded stakes races may serve more as marketing tools for specific tracks than as true indicators of Triple Crown contenders. The discussion underscores the potential for these seemingly minor influences to shape a horse's trajectory and the broader perception of racing's premier events.

The primary focus of the broadcast is the handicapping of various stakes races across different tracks, emphasizing the nuanced decision-making involved in selecting winning horses. This involves analyzing factors such as a horse's pedigree, recent performance, track conditions, jockey-horse pairings, and trainer form. For instance, in the Grade 2 San Vicente, the discussion of horses like Grenitz Village, Butein, and acknowledged me please reveals how breeding (e.g., Quality Road, Tis the Law) and past performance (e.g., maiden wins, losses to strong competitors like Ed Naafy) are weighed. The hosts' differing opinions on the favorites and their eventual consensus on So Happy illustrate the subjective nature of handicapping, where statistical data is interpreted through experienced judgment. This process highlights the second-order implication that success in handicapping relies not just on identifying talent, but on predicting how that talent will perform under specific race-day conditions and against particular competition, a skill that directly impacts wagering strategies and potential returns.

Furthermore, the broadcast implicitly demonstrates the financial ecosystem of horse racing, where promotional bonuses and sign-up incentives from wagering platforms like AmWager are directly linked to listener engagement. The repeated emphasis on AmWager's offers suggests a symbiotic relationship between media outlets and betting platforms, where content promotion drives user acquisition for wagering. This highlights the commercial underpinnings of the sport, where analysis and discussion are not purely academic but are integrated into a larger strategy to encourage participation in betting, thereby influencing the flow of capital within the industry. The discussion of races like the Sunshine Classic and Sunshine Filly and Mare Turf, with their reduced purses, also points to the economic pressures and structural shifts within racing, where the value of state-bred races may be declining relative to other opportunities, impacting the overall prize money available to owners and trainers.

Action Items

  • Audit authentication flow: Identify 3 potential vulnerabilities (SQL injection, XSS, CSRF) across 10 key endpoints.
  • Create runbook template: Define 5 essential sections (setup, common failures, rollback, monitoring, escalation) to standardize operational knowledge.
  • Measure performance impact: Track 5-10 high-variance events per race to quantify their influence on outcomes.
  • Analyze pedigree disconnect: For 3-5 horses, calculate the correlation between pedigree-indicated track preference and actual performance on different surfaces.

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Key Quotes

"I am afraid you are correct uh that i think that's a very good assessment on your part uh interesting quintet gathered for this year's uh renewal of the san vicente if you look down the roll of winners over the last two three four decades you see some pretty fantastic names on that list I'm not sure if one of these five is going to emerge and uh be a star horse but there's definitely some lightly raced individuals who have who have displayed plenty of talent"

Bob Nastanovich agrees with Bobby Neuman's assessment regarding the San Vicente race. Nastanovich highlights that while the race has a history of producing star horses, the current field of five contenders may not necessarily produce a future champion, though they do show promise.

"The only reason races like the San Vicente at Santa Anita and the Mucho Macho Man at Gulfstream Park are not points qualifiers is because they're run at tracks owned by First Bet or Stronach or whatever you'd like to call it the main rival to the folks that own the Kentucky Derby Churchill Downs"

Bobby Neuman suggests that the exclusion of certain races, like the San Vicente, from being Kentucky Derby points qualifiers is due to ownership conflicts with Churchill Downs, the owner of the Kentucky Derby. Neuman implies that track ownership by rival entities is the primary reason for these races not being designated as qualifying events.

"My pick is going to be the two so happy a son of Run Happy out of a Blame mare called So Cunning and a 150 000 Ocala two year old last year... I liked that performance and considering generally speaking the main track at Del Mar was very very speed favoring so in a mild upset I'm going to go with the back in form Mark Glatt trained So Happy the two horse under Mike Smith"

Bobby Neuman explains his selection of "So Happy" in a particular race. Neuman details the horse's breeding, purchase price, and a previous performance where it overcame a wide trip and a speed-favoring track to win, leading him to pick "So Happy" as an upset selection.

"I think the purse for this race is rather shocking the next two races we're going to discuss we had a bunch of allowance optional claimers on on the on the show yesterday that at 86 000 purses you know it's it's inexcusable that these aren't at least 100 but obviously being restricted to Florida breds it drew some very nice horses"

Bob Nastanovich expresses surprise at the purse amount for a specific race, contrasting it with higher purses for allowance optional claimers discussed previously. Nastanovich finds the purse level "inexcusable" for a stakes race, even though he acknowledges it drew quality Florida-bred horses.

"The Irish-born O'Brien a native of Newcastle in County Dublin rose to prominence in the United States as a steeplechase jockey from 1964 to 1976 when his riding career was cut short due to injury he returned to Ireland to begin training steeplechase horses with his brother Michael also a former steeplechase jockey who became a trainer following a riding accident earning championship honors in 1980"

This quote details the early career of Leo O'Brien, a trainer who passed away. It outlines his transition from a steeplechase jockey in the U.S. to a trainer in Ireland after an injury, highlighting his championship success in that role.

"My pick in here is the four horse Lights Gape she raced once big strong filly by Practical Joke out of an Uncle Mo Uncle Mo a Glen Hill homebred Tommy Proctor's five for nine with a second and two thirds at Tampa so he's rolling right now and she kind of was clueless in the first quarter mile of her debut December 6th and then Sammy Morin kind of got her going on the turn and she rolled home and galloped out really really strong I thought it was a pretty impressive bid"

Bobby Neuman explains his selection of "Lights Gape" in a race. Neuman describes the filly's breeding, her trainer's current success, and her debut performance where she overcame a slow start to finish impressively, suggesting a strong potential for her second lifetime start.

Resources

External Resources

Books

  • "The Blood Horse Calendar" - Mentioned as a subscriber benefit for the Blood Horse magazine.

Articles & Papers

  • "Blood Horse News Update" (Bloodhorse.com) - Source for racing news headlines.

People

  • Bob Baffert - Trainer mentioned for winning the San Vicente race 14 times.
  • Juan Hernandez - Jockey mentioned for winning the San Vicente race the last four years.
  • Richard Mandella - Trainer mentioned for winning the San Vicente race in 2022.
  • Doug O'Neill - Trainer mentioned for winning the San Vicente race with Nyquist in 2016.
  • Steve Asmussen - Trainer mentioned in relation to the horse Obliteration.
  • Joe Orseno - Trainer mentioned in relation to the horse Hades.
  • Laura Cazares - Trainer mentioned in relation to the horse One Pure Class.
  • Saffie Joseph Jr. - Trainer mentioned in relation to the horses Neo Equos, Tessalite, Andrea, and Danny Senteno.
  • Mark Glatt - Trainer mentioned in relation to the horse So Happy and Margarita Girl.
  • Narvaez - Trainer mentioned in relation to the horse Lightning Tones.
  • Castro - Trainer mentioned in relation to the horse Lightning Tones.
  • Salvatore Santoro - Trainer mentioned in relation to the horse Ashima.
  • Jose Deangelo - Trainer mentioned in relation to the horse Spirited Boss.
  • Brett to steal - Mentioned in relation to the horse Rugalock.
  • John Velazquez - Jockey mentioned as married to Leona O'Brien.
  • Keith O'Brien - Son of Leo O'Brien, horseman who worked with his father.
  • Michael O'Brien - Brother of Leo O'Brien, former steeplechase jockey and trainer.
  • Jose Ortiz - Jockey mentioned in relation to the horses Spirited Boss, Blue Fire, and Hey Jude.
  • Javier Castellano - Jockey mentioned in relation to the horse Ashima.
  • Mike Smith - Jockey mentioned in relation to the horses So Happy, Jolie Olimpica, and Queen Maxima.
  • Jereth Loveberry - Jockey mentioned in relation to the horses Harbor Springs and Eldenaro.
  • Pedroza - Jockey mentioned in relation to the horse Party Pauline.
  • Brian Hernandez - Jockey mentioned in relation to the horse Lots and Lots of Candy.
  • Sammy Marin - Jockey mentioned in relation to the horses Spirited Boss and Lightscape.
  • Edgard Zayas - Jockey mentioned as potentially riding at Tampa and Gulfstream.
  • Caesar Gonzalez - Jockey mentioned in relation to the horse Ridgey.
  • Tim Yakteen - Trainer mentioned in relation to the horse Ultimate Authority.
  • Chad Brown - Trainer mentioned in relation to the horse Fully Subscribed and Gazura.
  • Witt Whitman - Trainer mentioned in relation to the horse Drefel Hill.
  • Ben Curtis - Jockey mentioned as potentially riding at Tampa.
  • Danny Senteno - Jockey mentioned as riding for Saffie Joseph Jr.
  • Tony Mattox - Trainer mentioned in relation to the horse Runaway Diva.
  • George Cross - Horse mentioned in relation to the Gasperilla Stakes.
  • Tessalite - Horse mentioned in relation to the Gasperilla Stakes.
  • Love Like Lucy - Horse mentioned in relation to the Gasperilla Stakes.
  • Kathleen O'Connell - Trainer mentioned in relation to the horse George Cross.
  • Maria Bowersocks - Jockey mentioned in relation to the horse Ridgey.
  • Tommy Proctor - Trainer mentioned in relation to the horse Lightscape.
  • Richard Baltas - Trainer mentioned in relation to the horse Queen Maxima.
  • Mike McCarthy - Trainer mentioned in relation to the horse Spicy Bug.
  • Demuro - Jockey mentioned in relation to the horse Princessa Moche.
  • O'Neill - Trainer mentioned in relation to the horse Princessa Moche.
  • Drysdale - Trainer mentioned in relation to the horse Rosie Neeks.
  • Kazushi Kimura - Jockey mentioned in relation to the horse Omni Potent.
  • Phil D'Amato - Trainer mentioned in relation to the horse Omni Potent.
  • Juan Hernandez - Jockey mentioned in relation to the horse Queen Maxima.
  • Mike Tanner - Host of The Equine Forum.
  • Case Clay - US Racing Manager for Wafnin Racing, guest on The Equine Forum.
  • Tony Lacy - Keeneland VP of Sales, guest on The Equine Forum.
  • Darren Fox - Darley Sales Manager, guest on The Equine Forum.
  • Vance Hanson - Host of Calling All Three Year Olds.
  • Kurt Becker - Host of The Equine Forum.
  • Dale Romans - Host of I Ask They Answer.
  • Tim Wilken - Host of I Ask They Answer.
  • Leo O'Brien - Trainer of Four Star Dave, died at 85.
  • Joan O'Brien - Late wife of Leo O'Brien.
  • Leona O'Brien - Daughter of Leo O'Brien, married to John Velazquez.
  • Forever Young - Horse mentioned in relation to Eclipse Awards.
  • Niceo - Horse mentioned in relation to Eclipse Awards.
  • Sincerely Leon - Horse mentioned in relation to Eclipse Awards.
  • Sierra Leone - Horse mentioned in relation to Eclipse Awards.
  • Gazura - Horse mentioned in relation to Eclipse Awards.
  • Ben Tornado - Horse mentioned in relation to Eclipse Awards.
  • Bookem Danno - Horse mentioned in relation to Eclipse Awards and Pasco Stakes.
  • World of Trouble - Horse mentioned as a past winner of the Pasco Stakes.
  • Win Win Win - Horse mentioned as a past winner of the Pasco Stakes.
  • Musket Man - Horse mentioned as a past winner of the Pasco Stakes.
  • Uptown Charlie Brown - Horse mentioned as a past winner of the Pasco Stakes.
  • Touch Upon a Star - Horse mentioned in relation to Benoit.
  • Pegasus World Cup - Race mentioned in relation to Touch Upon a Star.
  • Eldenaro - Horse mentioned in relation to the Gary Palmisano Senior Memorial.
  • Little Miss Curlin - Horse mentioned in relation to Eldenaro.
  • Go Sugar - Horse mentioned in relation to the Gary Palmisano Senior Memorial.
  • Hey Jude - Horse mentioned in relation to the Gary Palmisano Senior Memorial.
  • Bron and Brow - Horse mentioned as the winner of the 2023 Gary Palmisano Memorial.
  • Mike J - Jockey mentioned in the Gary Palmisano Memorial.
  • Mangum - Horse mentioned in the Gary Palmisano Memorial.
  • John Dooley - Commentator for the Gary Palmisano Memorial.
  • Blue Fire - Horse mentioned in relation to the Bob Wright Memorial.
  • Secret Faith - Horse mentioned in relation to the Bob Wright Memorial.
  • Six String - Horse mentioned in relation to the Bob Wright Memorial.
  • Banteera - Horse mentioned in relation to the Nelson Monard Memorial.
  • Harbor Springs - Horse mentioned in relation to the Nelson Monard Memorial.
  • Party Pauline - Horse mentioned in relation to the Nelson Monard Memorial.
  • Lots and Lots of Candy - Horse mentioned in relation to the Nelson Monard Memorial.
  • Gruda - Horse mentioned in relation to De Vassa.
  • Kenton Road - Horse mentioned in the La Sienega Stakes.
  • Jolie Olimpica - Horse mentioned as the winner of the La Sienega Stakes.
  • Storm the Hill - Horse mentioned in the La Sienega Stakes.
  • Eddie Surprised - Horse mentioned in the La Sienega Stakes.
  • Frank Miramonti - Commentator for the La Sienega Stakes.
  • Magnifica - Horse mentioned in the Las Flores Stakes.
  • Margarita Girl - Horse mentioned in the Las Flores Stakes.
  • Thermal - Horse mentioned in the Las Flores Stakes.
  • Spicy Bug - Horse mentioned in the La Sirena Stakes.
  • Princessa Moche - Horse mentioned in the La Sirena Stakes.
  • Rosie Neeks - Horse mentioned in the La Sirena Stakes.
  • Omni Potent - Horse mentioned in the La Sirena Stakes.
  • Queen Maxima - Horse mentioned in the La Sirena Stakes.
  • Egyptian Mau - Horse mentioned in the La Sirena Stakes.

Organizations & Institutions

  • HRRN (Horse Racing Radio Network) - Radio network broadcasting the show.
  • AmWager - Wagering platform sponsoring the show.
  • Santa Anita - Racetrack hosting the San Vicente Stakes.
  • Gulfstream Park - Racetrack hosting the Mucho Macho Man Stakes and Sunshine Millions races.
  • Aqueduct - Racetrack hosting the Jerome Stakes.
  • Churchill Downs - Racetrack owner, rival to First Bet/Stronach.
  • Keeneland - Mentioned in relation to a broodmare sale and The Equine Forum.
  • Del Mar - Racetrack mentioned in relation to horse performances.
  • Oaklawn Park - Racetrack mentioned in relation to Obliteration.
  • Gulfstream Park - Racetrack mentioned in relation to the Sunshine Classic and Sunshine Filly and Mare Turf.
  • Fairgrounds - Racetrack hosting three stakes races.
  • New York Racing Association (NYRA) - Organization mentioned in relation to Leo O'Brien.
  • The Blood Horse - Magazine providing news updates.
  • Huntsman Mental Health Institute - Organization mentioned in relation to loveyourmindtoday.org.
  • The Ad Council - Organization mentioned in relation to loveyourmindtoday.org and discovertheforest.org.
  • SiriusXM - Satellite radio provider for The Equine Forum.
  • Tampa Bay Downs - Racetrack hosting stakes races.
  • Tampa - Racetrack mentioned in relation to stakes races.
  • Woodbine - Racetrack mentioned in relation to horse performances.
  • Horseshoe Indianapolis - Racetrack mentioned in relation to De Vassa.
  • Turfway Park - Racetrack hosting the Likely Exchange stakes.
  • Lexington - City mentioned in relation to Paula Lobo's training.
  • Montevideo, Uruguay - City mentioned as the birthplace of the horse De Vassa.
  • Jebel Ali, UAE - Location mentioned in relation to the horse De Vassa.
  • University of Louisville - Institution mentioned in relation to the I Ask They Answer segment.
  • College of Business - Part of the University of Louisville.
  • Wafnin Racing - Organization mentioned in relation to Case Clay.
  • Darley - Organization mentioned in relation to Darren Fox.
  • Spendthrift - Organization mentioned in relation to Vance

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