Aqueduct Stakes Preview: Track Conditions, Breeding, and Future Potential - Episode Hero Image

Aqueduct Stakes Preview: Track Conditions, Breeding, and Future Potential

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Original Title:

TL;DR

  • The $800,000 yearling "Believable" is a daughter of Curlin out of a Tapit mare, suggesting potential for success at longer distances, and is fitted with blinkers for her second start.
  • "Shilling," a daughter of promising stallion Practical Joke, is considered a strong contender in the Demoiselle Stakes due to her competitive speed figures and ability to handle a wet track.
  • "Just Beat The Odds" is a consistent sprinter with a strong record at Aqueduct, making him a viable contender in the Elite Power Stakes despite a busy race schedule.
  • "Parker Boon," a New York-bred two-year-old, demonstrated exceptional talent in his debut win at a significant margin, positioning him as a strong favorite in the Great White Way Division.
  • "Paladin," a $1.9 million yearling by Gun Runner, was elevated to first place via disqualification in his debut, indicating significant potential for improvement in his second career start.
  • "Doc Sullivan," a New York-bred specialist, is in peak form and well-suited to the conditions of the Cigar Mile, making him a potential upset winner.
  • "Tricky Temper" is expected to perform well on dirt after competing on synthetic surfaces against graded stakes competition, making her a strong candidate in the Garland of Roses.

Deep Dive

The weekend's horse racing slate features a packed schedule of stakes races, with a particular focus on Aqueduct's graded stakes. While the primary appeal lies in the immediate action and betting opportunities, the underlying implications point to the strategic importance of track conditions and the evolving nature of horse breeding and racing development. The discussions reveal a nuanced approach to handicapping, where the physical state of the track can significantly alter a horse's performance, directly impacting race outcomes and betting strategies.

The handicappers identify several key races, including the G2 Demoiselle, G3 Elite Power, and G2 Cigar Mile at Aqueduct, as well as stakes at Gulfstream Park and Tampa Bay Downs. A recurring theme is the impact of weather, specifically the forecast for cold and potentially wet conditions at Aqueduct, which necessitates adjusting handicapping strategies to account for off-track performance. This highlights the critical, yet often unpredictable, role of track conditions in determining race winners, forcing bettors to analyze a horse's past performance on similar surfaces. For instance, the preference for a fast track by certain horses like Sunday Girl in the Garland of Roses, or the potential advantage on a wet track for Shilling in the Demoiselle, underscores this point.

Beyond immediate race performance, the discussions touch upon the long-term implications of breeding and development. The mention of stallions like American Pharoah and Curlin, and the progeny of Honest Mischief, indicates a focus on bloodlines that can produce versatile athletes capable of performing across different distances and surfaces. The significant yearling sale prices for some of the two-year-olds, such as Paladin ($1.9 million) and Courtland ($5 million), reveal the substantial financial investment and breeding expectations placed on young horses. This suggests a market driven by the pursuit of future success, where breeding prowess is directly correlated with market value and potential racing dominance. The emphasis on specific sire lines and dam lines in handicapping the races points to a forward-looking strategy that prioritizes genetic potential as a predictor of future performance.

The races themselves, while offering immediate betting interest, also serve as crucial indicators of a horse's development and potential for future, higher-level competition. For example, the Remsen Stakes, won by Mo Donagall and Zandon in 2021, is noted for producing horses that later became major players in races like the Kentucky Derby and Belmont Stakes. This demonstrates how these weekend stakes serve as a proving ground, not just for immediate wins, but for identifying future stars of the sport. The discussions around horses like Bishop's Bay being used as a "prep" for the Saudi Cup illustrate a global perspective, where even seemingly regional races are part of a larger, international racing circuit.

Ultimately, the weekend's racing preview underscores that success in horse racing is a multifaceted endeavor. It requires keen analysis of immediate race conditions, an understanding of breeding trends and their financial implications, and a forward-looking perspective on identifying horses with the potential to excel in major events. The consistent emphasis on "and then what?"--what are the implications of a horse's breeding, its performance on a wet track, or its potential for future races--reveals a strategic layer beyond simple race prediction.

Action Items

  • Audit track conditions: Monitor weather forecasts for snow and rain at Aqueduct to adjust handicapping strategy for potentially off tracks.
  • Evaluate horse performance metrics: Analyze past race data for speed figures and performance on different track surfaces to identify horses suited for anticipated conditions.
  • Track jockey performance trends: Monitor jockey success rates at Aqueduct and Tampa Bay Downs to inform betting decisions, especially for jockeys with strong partnerships.
  • Assess breeding for distance suitability: Review pedigree information for horses entered in longer turf races to predict their ability to handle increased distances.
  • Compare trainer success rates: Analyze trainer performance at specific tracks like Aqueduct and Tampa Bay Downs to identify those currently in good form.

Related Episodes

Key Quotes

"Yeah, bobby, we're running out of big days at the historic racing venue that is Aqueduct, but yeah, this weekend's racing in Jamaica, New York is fantastic. Folks, AmWager is giving away money. New customers get a $150 signup bonus plus an instant $10 bonus for HRRN listeners. Go to link.amwager.com/hrrn, you'll get $10 instantly for signing up, then deposit $150, bet $150, and get a $150 lump sum bonus. It's that easy. AmWager is a wagering platform that's loaded with valuable tools and features, including odds charts, odds predictions, and much more. So go to link.amwager.com/hrrn to sign up and get your bonuses. AmWager built by horse players for horse players."

Bob Nastanovich highlights the promotional offers available through AmWager for new customers, emphasizing the signup bonus and instant bonus for HRRN listeners. He also describes AmWager as a platform equipped with valuable tools for handicapping, encouraging listeners to sign up via a specific URL to receive these benefits.

"Yeah, bobby, first things first, check the track conditions. The forecast up there looks pretty nasty, including a mix of snow and rain. So, yeah, you don't want to handicap these races thinking that you're definitely going to get a fast track, but by any means. This looks like a perhaps not a vintage renewal of the Demoiselle, but definitely a competitive one. Of the six fillies in here, I can only really confidently throw out one and that's the five Ivy Girl, who won a maiden claiming for $40,000 over this racetrack one-turn mile last time."

Bob Nastanovich advises listeners to consider track conditions, noting the forecast for snow and rain at Aqueduct, which suggests the track may not be fast. He assesses the Grade 2 Demoiselle as competitive, even if not a vintage renewal, and expresses confidence in only one filly, Ivy Girl, who previously won a maiden claiming race.

"My pick is the two Shilling. All right, I think the three Zany is going to win this race, and I think she'll win it at a short price. I think she won a sprint without probably even being a sprinter. She looks like one that's bred to go around two turns, and my guess is they were just trying to get some sort of a race into her last time out, and she just turned out to be a lot better than whatever she faced at Gulfstream Park. It doesn't bother me that she's stretching out from a sprint to a mile and an eighth. This is a new distance for all of these fillies, but her breeding tells me she's probably going to be better two turns than one, and I think she's just too talented for this field. Zany for me in the Demoiselle."

Bob Nastanovich selects Shilling as his pick for the race, while Bobby Neuman favors Zany, predicting she will win at a low price. Neuman believes Zany, despite winning a sprint, is bred for longer distances and is too talented for this field, even with the stretch-out in distance.

"Yeah, I was going to say, you can make a case for all six of these. Fantastic that they, uh, named a stakes race after Elite Power. He was just a fantastic horse, and I think we'll be seeing his sons and daughters, uh, perhaps as really, uh, next year, uh, ought to be a good stallion as well. But El Grande O, Flavien Prat, Linda Rice, 28 together, obviously loves Aqueduct. Five for 11, two seconds, two thirds, has no problem with a wet track. The win on October 9th, uh, El Grande O did something not unfamiliar to him. He broke from the rail and ran a big race, big number."

Bob Nastanovich notes that a case can be made for all six horses in the Elite Power Stakes, acknowledging Elite Power as a fantastic horse deserving of the named race. He highlights El Grande O, trained by Linda Rice and ridden by Flavien Prat, as a contender with a strong record at Aqueduct, including a win from the rail on a wet track.

"Yeah, I don't blame you. I think this race looks too tough for me. It's kind of an all-burger if I'm playing, uh, horizontal wagers. There's nobody I can throw out of the race. Uh, for the same reasons you like Just Beat The Odds, I pretty much like number three Acoustic Avenue. He just never runs a bad race, and he's been in the money nine of 12 starts at Aqueduct. I know he hasn't been facing quite the competition that he's going to be facing tomorrow, but he runs well no matter where you put him, and I don't see any reason he's not going to run another good race tomorrow in the Grade 3 Elite Power."

Bobby Neuman expresses that the Grade 3 Elite Power Stakes appears too challenging to pick a single horse, considering it an "all-burger" race for horizontal wagers. He favors Acoustic Avenue, citing his consistent performance and in-the-money finishes at Aqueduct, believing he will perform well despite facing tougher competition.

"My pick is the one O O 8 Mike Maker sent. Let me count the ways. Churchill Downs last weekend didn't work out. O is a very good filly. My only concern is the rail draw. If she can overcome that seven-furlong trip, she was really good last time in the slop at, uh, Finger Lakes, and is two for two. And I think that Maker, who's on fire at Aqueduct these days, has a big chance with the four to one morning line on the one horse O."

Bob Nastanovich selects the number one horse, "O," trained by Mike Maker, as his pick for the Fifth Avenue Division. His primary concern is the rail draw, but he notes the filly's strong performance on a sloppy track and Maker's current success at Aqueduct, making "O" a strong contender at four to one.

Resources

External Resources

Books

  • "The Equine Forum" by Kurt Becker - Mentioned as a weekly segment discussing racing history.

Articles & Papers

  • "Bloodhorse News Update" (Bloodhorse.com) - Mentioned for headlines regarding racing cancellations and industry news.

People

  • Bobby Neuman - Co-host of the podcast.
  • Bob Nastanovich - Co-host of the podcast.
  • Mike Penna - Host of "Trainer Talk" and "The Equine Forum."
  • Kurt Becker - Host of "A Stroll Through Racing History."
  • Damon Thayer - Mentioned in relation to comments made on HRRN.
  • Richard Migliore - NYRA on FOX Sports analyst.
  • Lonnie Powell - FTBOA CEO.
  • Dale Romans - Co-host of "I Ask They Answer."
  • Tim Wilken - Co-host of "I Ask They Answer."
  • Vance Hansen - Mentioned in relation to "Triple Play."
  • Chris Domining - Mentioned as an example of someone who received a kidney transplant.
  • Dick Vitale - Basketball analyst and cancer champion.
  • Allen Jerkens - Late great trainer for whom a stake race is named.
  • Johnny Imbrice - Mentioned as the announcer for the 2021 Remsen Stakes.
  • Butch Reed - Trainer mentioned for his success shipping horses.
  • Sheldon Russell - Husband of trainer Brittany Russell.
  • Mike Maker - Trainer previewing his runners.
  • Edgar Zayas - Jockey mentioned for his mounts at Tampa Bay Downs.
  • Flavien Prat - Jockey mentioned for multiple mounts.
  • Irad Ortiz - Jockey mentioned for multiple mounts.
  • Joel Rosario - Jockey mentioned for multiple mounts.
  • Javier Castellano - Jockey mentioned as a potential rider.
  • Horacio Karamanos - Jockey mentioned as a potential rider.
  • Tyler Gaffalione - Jockey mentioned for a mount.
  • Jorge Ruiz - Jockey mentioned for a mount.
  • Kendrick Carmouche - Jockey mentioned for multiple mounts.
  • Antonio Gallardo - Jockey mentioned for a mount.
  • Mike Husbands - Jockey mentioned for a mount.
  • Sunny Leon - Jockey mentioned for a mount.
  • Dylan Davis - Jockey mentioned for a mount.
  • Carlos Martin - Trainer.
  • Brittany Russell - Maryland-based trainer.
  • Kevin Nicholas - Jockey riding for Brittany Russell.
  • Manny Franco - Jockey.
  • Greg Sacca - Trainer.
  • Linda Rice - Trainer.
  • Kenny McPeek - Trainer.
  • Todd Pletcher - Trainer.
  • Chad Brown - Trainer.
  • Steve Asmussen - Trainer.
  • George Weaver - Trainer.
  • John Ortiz - Trainer.
  • Danny Gargan - Trainer.
  • Brad Cox - Trainer.
  • Saffie Joseph - Trainer.
  • Kathleen O'Connell - Trainer.
  • Miguel Clement - Trainer.
  • Arnaud Delacour - Trainer.
  • Mark Casse - Trainer.
  • Kevin Attard - Trainer.
  • Rafael Hernandez - Jockey.
  • Sheldon Russell - Jockey.
  • Marty Drexler - Trainer.
  • S1 Flores - Jockey.
  • David Duggan - Trainer.
  • Mike Smith - Jockey.
  • Eddie Maple - Jockey.
  • Allen Jerkens - Trainer.
  • Tom Durkin - Announcer.
  • Lizelle - Announcer.

Organizations & Institutions

  • Horse Racing Radio Network (HRRN) - Podcast host.
  • AmWager - Wagering platform offering bonuses.
  • Aqueduct - Racetrack.
  • Gulfstream Park - Racetrack.
  • Tampa Bay Downs - Racetrack.
  • Woodbine - Racetrack.
  • Keeneland - Racetrack and yearling sale.
  • Saratoga - Racetrack.
  • Delaware Park - Racetrack.
  • Belmont Training Track - Training facility.
  • Churchill Downs - Racetrack.
  • Prairie Meadows - Racetrack.
  • Perez Family - Mentioned in a narrative segment.
  • NHTSA (National Highway Traffic Safety Administration) - Organization promoting safe driving practices.
  • US Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) - Government agency providing veteran benefits.
  • The V Foundation - Cancer research foundation.
  • SiriusXM - Satellite radio provider.
  • Ad Council - Organization that produces public service announcements.
  • Mitsu - Mentioned in relation to an ad.
  • The Equine Forum - Podcast.
  • Twin Spires - Sponsor of "The Equine Forum."
  • NYRA (New York Racing Association) - Racing organization.
  • The Blood Horse - Publication.
  • Jockeys' Guild - Organization representing jockeys.
  • Horsemen's Benevolent Protective Association (HBPA) - Organization representing horsemen.
  • FTBOA (Florida Thoroughbred Breeders and Owners Association) - Organization.
  • University of Louisville College of Business - Sponsor of "I Ask They Answer."
  • Pioneer of the Nile - Mare mentioned in pedigree.
  • Uncle Mo - Stallion mentioned in pedigree.
  • Lemon Kid - Mare mentioned in pedigree.
  • Dallaconi - Mare mentioned in pedigree.
  • Frankel - Stallion mentioned in pedigree.
  • New Bay - Stallion mentioned in pedigree.
  • Yaupon - Stallion mentioned in pedigree.
  • Intimidate - Mare mentioned in pedigree.
  • Solomini - Stallion mentioned in pedigree.
  • More Than Ready - Mare mentioned in pedigree.
  • Midshipman - Stallion mentioned in pedigree.
  • Candy Ride - Mare mentioned in pedigree.
  • Honest Mischief - Stallion mentioned in pedigree.
  • Global Campaign - Stallion mentioned in pedigree.
  • Curlin - Stallion mentioned in pedigree.
  • Tapit - Mare mentioned in pedigree.
  • American Pharoah - Stallion mentioned in pedigree.
  • Midnight Lute - Mare mentioned in pedigree.
  • Gun Runner - Stallion mentioned in pedigree.
  • Quality Road - Mare mentioned in pedigree.
  • Gunite - Horse.
  • Elite Power - Horse.
  • Nucky - Horse.
  • Speed Boat - Horse.
  • Zany - Horse.
  • Shilling - Horse.
  • Believable - Horse.
  • Ivy Girl - Horse.
  • El Grande O - Horse.
  • Full Moon Madness - Horse.
  • Acoustic Avenue - Horse.
  • Just Beat The Odds - Horse.
  • Surveillance - Horse.
  • She's Country - Horse.
  • Hot Currency - Horse.
  • Braver Than You Believe - Horse.
  • O - Horse.
  • Parker Boon - Horse.
  • Spirit of New York - Horse.
  • Diamond Child - Horse.
  • My Miss Mo - Horse.
  • Taliqua - Horse.
  • Gerard's Cross - Horse.
  • Sneaky Good - Horse.
  • Evolution - Horse.
  • Coiled - Horse.
  • Risk Manager - Horse.
  • Balloonie - Horse.
  • Paladin - Horse.
  • Renegade - Horse.
  • Courtland - Horse.
  • Talkin - Horse.
  • Durnock - Horse.
  • Further Ado - Horse.
  • Napoleon Solo - Horse.
  • Phileas Fog - Horse.
  • Bishop's Bay - Horse.
  • Crazy Mason - Horse.
  • Doc Sullivan - Horse.
  • With The Angels - Horse.
  • Sunday Girl - Horse.
  • Patricia Ann - Horse.
  • Fully Subscribed - Horse.
  • Kapa Kapa - Horse.
  • Ragtime - Horse.
  • Vodka With A Twist - Horse.
  • Tricky Temper - Horse.
  • LJ - Horse.
  • Pondering - Horse.
  • Kaitlyn Her Greatness - Horse.
  • Eagle Poise - Horse.
  • Harrods Creek - Horse.
  • Leopard - Horse.
  • Fleet of Guns - Horse.
  • Tosen Wish - Horse.
  • Jokestar - Horse.
  • F35 - Horse.
  • Cool Kiss - Horse.
  • Dresden Row - Horse.
  • Paramount Prince - Horse.
  • Mo Donagall - Horse.
  • Zandon - Horse.
  • Sky Beauty - Horse.
  • Miss The Storm - Horse.
  • Distinctive Habit - Horse.
  • Arindel - Breeding operation.
  • Brotherton - Stallion.
  • Calumet Farm - Owner.
  • Mantouli - Stallion.
  • Super Saver - Stallion.
  • Superkick - Horse.
  • Gallivant - Horse.
  • Spun Dmc - Horse.
  • Fast Company - Stallion.
  • Midshipman - Stallion.
  • Unbridled Song - Mare.
  • You Shi - Stallion.
  • Envy - Stallion.
  • Colt Front - Stallion.
  • Global Campaign - Stallion.
  • Curragh - Horse.
  • Tap It - Mare.
  • American Pharoah - Stallion.
  • Dream Call - Mare.
  • Midnight Lute - Mare.
  • Gun Runner - Stallion.
  • Quality Road - Mare.
  • Gunite - Horse.
  • Elite Power - Horse.
  • Nucky - Horse.
  • Speed Boat - Horse.
  • Zany - Horse.
  • Shilling - Horse.
  • Believable - Horse.
  • Ivy Girl - Horse.
  • El Grande O - Horse.
  • Full Moon Madness - Horse.
  • Acoustic Avenue - Horse.
  • Just Beat The Odds - Horse.
  • Surveillance - Horse.
  • She's Country - Horse.
  • Hot Currency - Horse.

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