Scheme and Play-Calling Trump Raw Talent in Fantasy Football - Episode Hero Image

Scheme and Play-Calling Trump Raw Talent in Fantasy Football

Fantasy Football Today Beyond the Box Score · · Listen to Original Episode →
Original Title:

TL;DR

  • Prioritizing scheme and play-calling over raw talent is crucial for fantasy success, as demonstrated by the impact of offensive coordinators like Ben Johnson and the struggles of Brock Bowers despite his individual skill.
  • Investing in offenses with strong schemes and play-callers, such as the Jaguars and Bears, offers greater potential for finding undervalued players than focusing on established, high-ADP offenses.
  • The effectiveness of players like Travis Etienne is heavily influenced by offensive line performance and scheme, underscoring the need to consider situational factors beyond individual talent.
  • Player evaluation is not an exact science, and while film study is valuable, it should be combined with data and an understanding that players and situations evolve over time.
  • Tanking in dynasty leagues is often overrated, as consistently competing and acquiring talent for the present generally yields better long-term results than bottoming out for draft picks.
  • The success of players like Puka Nacua can be attributed to a combination of their dedication, skill development, and the offensive scheme, rather than solely relying on initial evaluations.
  • Understanding a player's spatial awareness and ability to process information, particularly for quarterbacks and running backs, is a key differentiator in evaluating their potential beyond basic athleticism.

Deep Dive

This episode of "Fantasy Football Today Beyond the Box Score" delves into listener questions, revealing how personal biases, evolving player evaluations, and the inherent unpredictability of fantasy sports shape decision-making. The hosts, Dan and Jacob, demonstrate that successful fantasy analysis requires a blend of statistical understanding, scheme evaluation, and a willingness to adapt when initial projections prove incorrect, highlighting that even experienced analysts can be surprised by player performance and team dynamics.

The conversation reveals a core tension in fantasy football: the balance between trusting established talent and capitalizing on emerging players or favorable matchups. This is evident in their discussions about draft busts and hits, where players like Brian Thomas Jr. and Drake London were initially overvalued due to perceived upside, while players like Laave and James Cook provided unexpected value. The hosts emphasize that understanding offensive schemes and play-caller tendencies is crucial, as demonstrated by their reassessment of Travis Etienne's success despite initial concerns about his offensive line. This indicates a shift towards valuing situational factors alongside individual player skill.

The second-order implication is that fantasy football advice is not static. Player values fluctuate based on team performance, coaching changes, and individual development, necessitating continuous re-evaluation. The hosts' willingness to admit misses and celebrate hits underscores the dynamic nature of the game. Furthermore, the exploration of subjective elements, such as movie preferences and humor, illustrates how personal taste can influence, and sometimes even distract from, objective analysis, but also serves to build a connection with the audience by showcasing their personalities beyond pure football analysis. This blend of analytical rigor and relatable discussion is key to engaging a fantasy football community.

Action Items

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Related Episodes

Key Quotes

"You know how in football timing is everything you miss your window by a second and the play's already gone the holidays are the same way everything happens fast and if you're not ready you're scrambling at the last minute that's why amazon prime is the real mvp this season with prime's fast free shipping you can make those last minute calls look effortless forgot your secret santa gift need something for that office party prime's got your back helping you go from uh oh to all set faster than a two minute drill"

The speaker uses a football analogy to emphasize the importance of timely preparation during the holidays, likening missed opportunities to fumbled plays. They then pivot to Amazon Prime, presenting it as a solution for last-minute holiday shopping needs due to its fast and free shipping. This highlights Prime's utility in alleviating holiday stress by enabling quick gift acquisition.

"I love doing mailbag episodes it's something that we run regularly on my other podcasts and I love them because it gets to dive a little deeper into not just fantasy and what we can provide on that front not that we're providing much on this other front but it dives into our personalities maybe our personalities are controversial like mine or maybe it's just like Jacob's just a chill guy just trying to get along not have a lot of hot takes just so those know I will defend my takes today a few of you in the comments we got some questions that challenged some of my takes and I will defend them to the death but I love mailbag shows Jacob because it's not just about football it's about the fun and it's about the community that we've built here at beyond the box score"

The speaker expresses enthusiasm for mailbag episodes, explaining that they allow for a deeper exploration of personalities beyond just fantasy football analysis. They value these segments for fostering fun and strengthening the community built around the podcast. This indicates a desire to connect with the audience on a more personal level and to engage with their feedback, even when it challenges their opinions.

"I gave this a little bit of thought over my lunch break and it's obviously really hard to come up with five especially for me um as much as I love rankings like I have a really hard time ruling any of these out um but I'm I'm really curious which of these you've seen so I'm going with lord of the rings like that's the first thing that came to my head before confirming with any uh lists or anything like that and I tried to kind of I tried to get like a little bit of everything with my five and so lord of the rings is like obviously visually it's cool the story is really cool the lore is really cool but the acting's amazing but also like the the underlying stuff that's going on there like a lot of the uh a lot of the themes in lord of the rings the archetypes in lord of the rings and stuff like that are just like so classic and good there's a reason it's so popular you know what I mean it's like just in my opinion one of the best stories ever"

The speaker shares their difficulty in selecting only five "must-see" movies, highlighting their love for rankings and the challenge of excluding favorites. They ultimately choose "Lord of the Rings," citing its visual appeal, compelling story, rich lore, excellent acting, and classic themes and archetypes as reasons for its enduring popularity and status as one of the best stories ever told. This demonstrates a thoughtful approach to movie selection, prioritizing depth and broad appeal.

"I also need to really watch that's on first so rocky and 12 angry men I have to watch both I need to see apocalypse now I've never seen it my brother finally just watched it on his own and he was like dude you have to see this my dad's always been saying you have to see apocalypse now I didn't even realize it was like a different um kind of take on war which I think could be really awesome and it has like kind of a more not funny vibe but like a different vibe to a take on wartime stuff and an actual war so apocalypse now is number three for me I have to see that so 12 angry men apocalypse now rocky one I also need to see alien one because I want to watch the new series on netflix the alien series it's completely right up my alley but I need to see the movies first to understand where I'm at with that so those are like top four and then the fifth one that I just have to see on my list of things I haven't seen um is silence of the lambs obviously one of the best movies of all time I've never seen it for some odd weird reason just mostly because I don't watch any movies"

The speaker lists several films they have not seen but feel compelled to watch, including "Rocky," "12 Angry Men," "Apocalypse Now," and "Alien." They explain their motivation for watching "Alien" is to understand the new Netflix series and express a strong desire to see "Apocalypse Now" due to recommendations and its unique take on war. The speaker concludes by noting "Silence of the Lambs" as their fifth must-see, acknowledging its acclaimed status despite their general lack of movie-watching habits.

"I feel like one of my biggest misses was Brian Thomas Jr. I felt like he he was nearly can't miss and that was way too much confidence um given all the newness of the situation there in Jacksonville new coach Travis Hunter coming in and also like a bunch of projecting like what BTJ could do that he could fill this Mike Evans type of role where he's not just went on the perimeter but he's also somebody who can win over the middle and stuff like that but he could do a lot of the stuff that worked last year for Liam Cohen's offense that we hadn't seen a ton of really um and also we also we didn't see him succeed with Trevor Lawrence that much um so I feel bad about that one because I remember as we were getting into the draft process I kept looking at like Amon-Ra St. Brown on paper and being like this is clearly a better profile to bet on and I know it and I'm just like so enamored with what BTJ could be but it's the stupid like what's in the box thing where it's like he can even be like Amon-Ra St. Brown for fantasy it's like we already know what he is"

The speaker identifies Brian Thomas Jr. as a significant fantasy football miss, attributing it to overconfidence and projecting a Mike Evans-like role onto him. They acknowledge that projecting his potential within Liam Cohen's offense and alongside Trevor Lawrence was too ambitious, especially when comparing him to Amon-Ra St. Brown, a proven commodity. The speaker reflects on the tendency to chase upside ("what's in the box") rather than relying on established player profiles.

"My biggest hit is probably like I feel like the it's hard to say Pickens because of the way the things have panned out it's still a hit you know it's still a massive it definitely

Resources

External Resources

Books

  • "Rocky" - Mentioned as a movie that is a classic and a good sports movie, though its quality is debated.
  • "Seven" - Mentioned as a unique movie with a unique plot and amazing twist, considered by some to be better than Rocky.
  • "Shawshank Redemption" - Mentioned as a must-see movie.
  • "Goodfellas" - Mentioned in comparison to Rocky.
  • "Cinderella Man" - Recommended as a movie that Dan might like.

Articles & Papers

  • "Jack's Bad Reputation" (The Detroiters skit) - Recommended as an introduction to Tim Robinson's humor.

People

  • Chris Redman - Mentioned as a former starting quarterback for the Falcons who was a successful fantasy streamer in a specific Monday night game.
  • Adam Thielen - Mentioned as a player who had a big game in a Monday night matchup that impacted fantasy championships.
  • J.J. Zachariason - Mentioned as someone who worked at Numberfire and helped Dan get his start in fantasy sports.
  • Scott Barrett - Mentioned as a Numberfire alum now with Fantasy Points Data.
  • Mike Clay - Mentioned as a former boss at Pro Football Focus Fantasy who gave Dan an opportunity to write.
  • Jeff Ratcliffe - Mentioned as a former boss at PFF.
  • Chris Westling - Mentioned as the former head of Rotoworld who gave Dan an opportunity to manage the Rotoworld Twitter account for free.
  • Larry Hartstein - Mentioned as someone who gave Dan an opportunity at CBS Sports.
  • Audi - Mentioned as someone who gave Dan an opportunity to move to the fantasy side at CBS Sports.
  • Matt Walman - Mentioned as someone who is considered the best at evaluating running backs and what to look for.
  • Devon Achane - Mentioned as a college player whose tape was better than people realized, showing good processing skills.
  • Marvin Harrison Jr. - Mentioned as a receiver with an amazing, diversified release package off the line of scrimmage.
  • Devante Adams - Mentioned as a receiver who won with a sick and diversified release package off the line of scrimmage.
  • Jaylen Waddle - Mentioned as a player on the Dolphins' skill group.
  • Darren Waller - Mentioned as a player on the Dolphins' skill group and a potential good fit for a rookie quarterback.
  • Quinn Ewers - Mentioned as a rookie quarterback making his first NFL start for the Dolphins, with concerns about his ball placement.
  • Tua Tagovailoa - Mentioned in comparison to Quinn Ewers, noting Tua's inability to throw off-platform.
  • Kenny Pickett - Mentioned as a quarterback option and compared unfavorably to other options.
  • Caleb Williams - Mentioned as a quarterback prospect with potential concerns about the Bears' run-heavy offense.
  • Jalen Carter - Mentioned as a player to consider in fantasy lineups.
  • Michael Wilson - Mentioned as a player who has performed well and is a strong fantasy option.
  • Drake London - Mentioned as a player with upside in fantasy lineups.
  • Justin Herbert - Mentioned as a quarterback with good stats and a potential option.
  • Kirk Cousins - Mentioned as a quarterback with good stats and a potential option.
  • Matthew Stafford - Mentioned as a quarterback with concerns about his matchup and the absence of Devante Adams.
  • Brock Bowers - Mentioned as a player who was a miss in fantasy drafts due to situation and quarterback play.
  • Travis Etienne - Mentioned as a fantasy miss that ended up being a hit, due to underestimating the offensive scheme.
  • James Cook - Mentioned as a fantasy hit.
  • Brian Thomas Jr. - Mentioned as a fantasy miss.
  • Jayden Reed - Mentioned as a fantasy option against the Giants.
  • Jordan Addison - Mentioned as a fantasy option.
  • Amon-Ra St. Brown - Mentioned as a player with a better profile on paper than other rookies.
  • Puka Nacua - Mentioned as a player who fell in drafts but performed well, with potential for improvement.
  • Kyler Murray - Mentioned as a factor in Trey McBride's fantasy success.
  • Jacoby Brissett - Mentioned as a quarterback who unexpectedly boosted the performance of other players.
  • Daniel Jones - Mentioned as a quarterback option.
  • Aaron Rodgers - Mentioned as a quarterback option.
  • Bryce Young - Mentioned as a quarterback option.
  • J.J. McCarthy - Mentioned as a quarterback option.
  • Trey McBride - Mentioned as a player who could win leagues.
  • De'Von Achane - Mentioned as a college player with better tape than people realized.
  • Geno Smith - Mentioned as a player whose performance this year is odd compared to last year.
  • Xavier Worthy - Mentioned as a player to watch in college.
  • Adonai Mitchell - Mentioned as a player to watch in college.
  • Matthew Golden - Mentioned as a player to watch in college.
  • Luther Burden - Mentioned as a player with good movement and vertical momentum.
  • Garrett Wilson - Mentioned as a player who does similar moves to Luther Burden.
  • Tim Robinson - Mentioned as a comedian whose humor is absurd and hit-or-miss.
  • Keegan-Michael Key - Mentioned in relation to Tim Robinson's humor.
  • Michael Key - Mentioned in relation to Tim Robinson's humor.
  • Nick Flatt - Mentioned as a friend who initially disliked Tim Robinson's humor but later enjoyed some sketches.
  • Adam Schefter - Mentioned in relation to fantasy football.
  • Phillip Rivers - Mentioned as a quarterback option.
  • Kyler Fann - Mentioned as a fantasy option.
  • Dalton Schultz - Mentioned as a tight end option.
  • Kylen Granson - Mentioned as a tight end option.
  • Hunter Henry - Mentioned as a fantasy option.
  • Michael Carter - Mentioned as a fantasy option.
  • Jalen Reed - Mentioned as a fantasy option.
  • Zay Flowers - Mentioned as a fantasy option.
  • Rico Dowdle - Mentioned as a fantasy option.
  • Stefon Diggs - Mentioned as a fantasy option with concerns about his role.
  • Kenneth Gainwell - Mentioned as a fantasy option with volume potential.
  • Derrick Henry - Mentioned as a fantasy option.
  • Breece Hall - Mentioned as a fantasy option.
  • Aaron Jones - Mentioned as a fantasy option.
  • AJ Brown - Mentioned as a fantasy option.
  • George Pickens - Mentioned as a fantasy option with concerns about his involvement.
  • C.J. Stroud - Mentioned as a must-start quarterback.
  • Mac Jones - Mentioned as a quarterback option.
  • Baker Mayfield - Mentioned as a quarterback option.
  • Jared Goff - Mentioned as a quarterback option.
  • Brock Purdy - Mentioned as a quarterback option.
  • Josh Jacobs - Mentioned as a player to consider starting.
  • Tyler Warren - Mentioned as a tight end option.
  • Kobe Parkinson - Mentioned as a tight end option.
  • D'Andre Swift - Mentioned as a player who could have been a cheap value.
  • Christian Watson - Mentioned as a fantasy option if healthy.
  • Michael Gallup - Mentioned as a fantasy option.
  • Javonte Williams - Mentioned as a player who could have been a cheap value.
  • Trey Palmer - Mentioned as a fantasy option.
  • Rashee Rice - Mentioned as a fantasy option with concussion protocol concerns.
  • Mike Evans - Mentioned as a fantasy option.
  • CeeDee Lamb - Mentioned as a player Dak Prescott trusts.
  • Jake Ferguson - Mentioned as a player Dak Prescott trusts.
  • Ryan Flournoy - Mentioned as a player Dak Prescott trusts.
  • Quentin Johnston - Mentioned as a player who could be a fantasy option.
  • Quentin Williams - Mentioned as a player whose absence could affect the Cowboys' defense.
  • Lad McConkey - Mentioned as a fantasy option.
  • Jayden Daniels - Mentioned as a quarterback prospect.
  • C.J. Mosley - Mentioned in relation to fantasy football.
  • J.K. Dobbins - Mentioned in relation to fantasy football.
  • Austin Ekeler - Mentioned as a fantasy option.
  • Eddie Mitchell - Mentioned as a fantasy option.
  • D.J. Moore - Mentioned as a fantasy option.
  • Cole Kmet - Mentioned as a fantasy option.
  • Kyle Pitts - Mentioned as a fantasy option.
  • Evan Engram - Mentioned as a fantasy option.
  • T.J. Hockenson - Mentioned as a fantasy option.
  • Mark Andrews - Mentioned as a fantasy option.
  • Sam LaPorta - Mentioned as a fantasy option.
  • David Montgomery - Mentioned as a fantasy option.
  • D'Onta Foreman - Mentioned as a fantasy option.
  • Jerick McKinnon - Mentioned as a fantasy option.
  • Isiah Pacheco - Mentioned as a fantasy option.
  • Rachaad White - Mentioned as a fantasy option.
  • Bijan Robinson - Mentioned as a fantasy option.
  • Jonathan Taylor - Mentioned as a fantasy option.
  • Saquon Barkley - Mentioned as a fantasy option.
  • Christian McCaffrey - Mentioned as a fantasy option.
  • Austin Hooper - Mentioned as a fantasy option.
  • Gerald Everett - Mentioned as a fantasy option.
  • Pat Freiermuth - Mentioned as a fantasy option.
  • Dallas Goedert - Mentioned as a fantasy option.
  • Kyle Pitts - Mentioned as a fantasy option.
  • Trey McBride - Mentioned as a fantasy option.
  • Mark Andrews - Mentioned as a fantasy option.
  • Sam LaPorta - Mentioned as a fantasy option.
  • Dalton Kincaid - Mentioned as a fantasy option.
  • Jaxon Smith-Njigba - Mentioned as a player who was a miss in fantasy.
  • Amari Cooper - Mentioned as a fantasy option.
  • Nico Collins - Mentioned as a fantasy option.
  • Tank Dell - Mentioned as a fantasy option.
  • Jaylen Warren - Mentioned as a fantasy option.
  • Michael Carter - Mentioned as a fantasy option.
  • **Kenneth

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