NFL Week 15: Exploiting Situational Disadvantages and Defensive Vulnerabilities

Key Quotes

"I'm going to war with Josh Allen who I just need to win the game. If you're interested in trends as a dog or a favorite of less than a field goal, he's 30-14 and two against the spread. Only Brady and Brees have been more profitable. Eighteen, eight and two against the spread on the road. Seven, nineteen and seven against the spread when the spread is under three in either direction. So like that's 73%."

Chris Raybon highlights Josh Allen's strong historical performance as a favorite or underdog of less than a field goal, and on the road. This data suggests a pattern of consistent profitability against the spread, indicating a reliable bet when these conditions are met. Raybon uses these statistics to build confidence in selecting Allen to win the game.

"The Broncos defense plays single high safety at the sixth highest rate. Thank you, Jordan Love, first in EPA per dropback against single high, first in total EPA against single high, sixth in success rate against single high out of 39 qualified quarterbacks. And what does the Broncos defense do even more than play single high? They play man coverage. They're first in the league in man coverage rate. Jordan Love, first in the league in EPA per dropback against man coverage, second in total EPA versus man, third in success rate against man, and second in total touchdown passes against man coverage with 17."

Stuckey explains how Jordan Love's statistical performance against specific defensive coverages directly counters the Denver Broncos' primary defensive schemes. He details Love's high rankings in EPA per dropback and success rate against both single-high safety and man coverage, which are the Broncos' most frequently used tactics. This analysis suggests a significant schematic advantage for Love and the Packers.

"The Chargers also just are incapable of operating a functional offense right now with the current state of their offensive line. They gave up a 70% pressure rate last week, 70%. Herbert was sacked seven times. That was against an Eagles defense that doesn't even get as much pressure as the Chiefs. And they didn't have Jalen Carter."

Chris Raybon points out the critical weakness in the Chargers' offense: their offensive line's inability to protect Justin Herbert. He quantifies this by citing the high pressure rate and number of sacks allowed against a defense that is not as strong in generating pressure as the Chiefs. This highlights a severe vulnerability that the Chiefs' defense can exploit.

"Dak Prescott, he's been good against the blitz. He's been good period. Yeah, that's what I was going to ask you. You worried about him against the blitz and them hitting explosive passes? Yeah, so in theory, Dak Prescott good against the blitz, but he's been so good that his EPA per dropback actually decreases when he's blitzed versus when he's not."

Stuckey discusses Dak Prescott's performance against the blitz, noting that while he is generally effective, his efficiency actually declines when he is blitzed. This observation suggests that despite his overall success, blitzing him might be a counterintuitive strategy for opposing defenses. Stuckey uses this to question the conventional wisdom about blitzing Prescott.

"The Bears defense is not good. I mean, look, this is a Bears team that on the season, and I love this Bears team, I have all I have the bets on them to win the division, over their win total, to make the playoffs. But I mean, this is a team that they beat the Steelers at home with Mason Rudolph by three. They beat and that that spread was two and a half. Like we're saying this the Steelers are like five points better than the Browns. I don't think so."

Chris Raybon expresses skepticism about the Bears' defensive capabilities, despite having positive bets on the team's overall success. He supports this by referencing their narrow victories against teams like the Steelers with a backup quarterback, implying they do not win by significant margins. Raybon uses these examples to argue that the Bears' defense is not as strong as their record might suggest.

"The Eagles offense is broken. It's not going to be fixed by the way. If you're an Eagles fan, obviously this season is like mirroring 2023 with Brian Johnson and all the offensive coordinator issues. You started off hot, basically just winning a bunch of close games, and then the season cratered at the end."

Stuckey analyzes the Philadelphia Eagles' offensive struggles, comparing their current season to a previous one characterized by similar issues with their offensive coordinator. He notes that their early success was based on winning close games, but their performance has significantly declined towards the end of the season. Stuckey suggests that the offensive problems are deep-seated and unlikely to be resolved quickly.