Week 14 NFL Games Reveal Shifting Playoff Landscapes And Troubling Trends
TL;DR
- The Chiefs' offensive struggles against man coverage, highlighted by Patrick Mahomes' low completion percentage and yards, indicate a potential decline in their previously dominant scheme, impacting their playoff viability.
- The Texans' defense, characterized by its "our guys are better than your guys" approach without disguises or blitzes, stifled the Chiefs and positions them as a dangerous AFC wild card contender.
- Jordan Love's command of the Packers' offense, particularly his effectiveness against man coverage and blitzes, demonstrates significant growth and positions him as a top-tier NFL quarterback.
- Trevor Lawrence's aggressive downfield passing and the Jaguars' offensive explosiveness, fueled by Brian Thomas Jr.'s vertical threat, transform them into a dynamic unit capable of competing with elite teams.
- The Colts' season has effectively ended with Daniel Jones' injury, compounded by previous quarterback issues and a difficult remaining schedule, projecting a potential 8-9 finish and significant draft pick implications.
- Josh Allen's rapid scoring surge against the Bengals, including a long scramble touchdown and capitalizing on turnovers, highlights the Bills' offensive resurgence and their need for such performances to secure a playoff spot.
- The Rams' offensive success rate of 67.2% against the Cardinals underscores their potent attack, while the Cardinals' lack of effort raises questions about Jonathan Gannon's coaching and job security.
- The Dolphins' defensive resurgence, allowing an average of 13.25 points over their last four games, is fueling their playoff push and demonstrating a competitive spirit that contrasts with teams rolling over.
- The Commanders' defense, under Dan Quinn, has shown a significant year-over-year decline, giving up 31 points to a Vikings team that had been shut out, raising concerns about Quinn's ability to retain his job.
- Jalen Warren and Pat Freiermuth's wide-open touchdowns against the Ravens highlight defensive lapses, suggesting a softness in the Ravens' play that, combined with Lamar Jackson's apparent injury limitations, jeopardizes their season.
Deep Dive
The NFL's Week 14 saw shifting playoff landscapes and concerning trends for established powers, highlighted by the Texans' decisive victory over the Chiefs, which underscored Kansas City's offensive struggles and jeopardized their postseason hopes. Meanwhile, the Bengals' loss to the Bills, compounded by critical coaching decisions and Joe Burrow's injury, significantly dimmed their playoff aspirations, while other teams like the Jaguars and Seahawks solidified their positions with strong performances.
The Chiefs' 20-10 loss to the Texans exposed deep-seated issues, most notably Patrick Mahomes' career-worst QBR and struggles against man coverage, suggesting a potential decline in their once-dominant offensive scheme. This defeat, coupled with a lack of tiebreaker advantages against key AFC South contenders like the Texans and Jaguars, places the Chiefs in a precarious position, with their playoff chances dwindling to a mere 14%. Conversely, the Texans, fueled by a top-ranked defense and emerging offensive plays from C.J. Stroud, are demonstrating the potential for a deep playoff run, mirroring the defensive prowess of the 2015 Broncos.
In the AFC North, the Ravens' 27-22 loss to the Steelers raised questions about their physical consistency and Lamar Jackson's health, with his lingering hamstring injury appearing to hamper his playmaking ability. The Steelers' victory, while significant for their playoff hopes, was aided by a lack of pressure on Aaron Rodgers, hinting that their offensive resurgence may be contingent on such favorable circumstances. The Bills' dramatic 39-34 comeback win over the Bengals, featuring a rapid scoring surge in the fourth quarter, effectively ended Cincinnati's playoff aspirations, particularly after a questionable late-game decision by coach Zac Taylor. This loss, combined with Joe Burrow's injury, casts doubt on the Bengals' future competitiveness this season.
Elsewhere, the Rams continued their offensive surge with a 45-17 rout of the Cardinals, showcasing a remarkable 67.2% success rate, while Matthew Stafford and Puka Nacua displayed continued chemistry. The Seahawks also secured a comfortable 37-9 victory over the Falcons, with rookie Devon Witherspoon emerging as a Defensive Rookie of the Year candidate, contributing to a defense that ranks among the league's best. The Saints broke their scoring drought with a 24-20 win over the Buccaneers, but Tampa Bay's offense, particularly Baker Mayfield's struggles without Mike Evans, remains a significant concern, jeopardizing their division title hopes. The Broncos extended their streak of one-score wins to nine with a 24-17 victory over the Raiders, though questions linger about Geno Smith's long-term viability as a franchise quarterback for Las Vegas.
The Titans' 31-29 upset of the Browns, highlighted by a promising performance from rookie quarterback Shedeur Sanders, further complicated the AFC playoff picture, while the Dolphins' four-game winning streak, fueled by defensive improvement, has them back in contention. Finally, the Vikings' dominant 31-0 shutout of the Commanders, with K.J. Jefferson having a career-best EPA per play, underscored Washington's defensive struggles and the concerning injury history of quarterback Jayden Daniels. The Commanders now face difficult decisions regarding their coaching staff and the future of their franchise quarterback.
Action Items
- Audit Puka Nacua's finishing ability: Analyze 3-5 contested catches per game to identify specific techniques for improving receiver contact resilience.
- Measure Jordan Love's command of the offense: Track completion percentage and EPA per dropback against man coverage and blitzes over the next 4 games.
- Evaluate C.J. Stroud's pocket presence: Analyze pressure situations and off-platform throws over the next 5 games to identify areas for offensive line improvement.
- Track Aaron Rodgers' deep ball accuracy: Measure sideline go-ball success rate over the next 3 games to assess potential for transforming Steelers offense.
- Analyze Josh Allen's scramble effectiveness: Review 3-5 scramble plays per game for tackling angles and defensive pursuit to inform defensive strategy.
Key Quotes
"You don't have to let your big wireless and overpriced phone bill be the coal in your stocking right now all of Mint Mobile's unlimited plans are 50 off you can get three six or 12 months of unlimited premium wireless for 15 bucks a month it's their best deal of the year and makes it real easy for you to give your expensive wireless bill the scrooge treatment."
This quote highlights a promotional offer from Mint Mobile, emphasizing significant savings on unlimited wireless plans. The speaker is presenting this as a practical solution for consumers looking to reduce their monthly expenses, particularly during a holiday season.
"You know how fast NFL game days move one big play and everything changes that's why live betting on FanDuel is a game changer with FanDuel you can bet in real time while the game unfolds score just flipped jump on a new spread or live money line the wide receivers heating up bet the next touchdown score or total yards think that drive stalls in the red zone take a live field goal prop or fade the total live player props team totals drive results updated spreads next play markets it's all there it's fast it's fun and with FanDuel your live bets move as quickly as the game does so whether you're riding momentum or fading the hype FanDuel puts you right in the middle of every moment."
This quote describes the dynamic nature of live betting on FanDuel, positioning it as a way to engage with NFL games in real-time. The speaker emphasizes the speed and variety of betting options available, suggesting it enhances the viewing experience by allowing users to react instantly to game developments.
"Patrick Mahomes went three for 11 in man coverage that is for the lowest completions that he's had in man coverage in a single game this season it's tied for lowest actually with the Jaguars but he had 23 73 completion percentage he had 17 yards against man coverage they also threw a pick so it's just like some of that magic some of the Andy Reid scheming up against man coverage that's how they beat the Texans last year they knew how to find every answer against man coverage and it just feels like some of that stuff just doesn't work now."
Mike Renner is analyzing Patrick Mahomes' performance against man coverage in a specific game, noting a significant drop in his completion percentage and yardage. Renner suggests that the Chiefs' usual effectiveness against this defensive scheme, which was successful in a previous matchup against the Texans, is no longer present.
"But man it just even the final two minute drive it felt like they were doing anything possible to not drop back pass in that game I think it's more the Packers defense is really good and instead of Ben Johnson not trusting Caleb Williams it's more Ben Johnson not trusting Osi Ugonoh and left tackle it's more not trusting that offensive line and you can tell when they tried to go drop back in this game I think it was one of the first plays that they tried to go drop back in this game it was third down Michael Parsons is lined up over Jonah Jackson and it feels like Jonah Jackson is like watching a ghost and Michael Parsons goes right past him and Caleb has to escape the pocket and he throws it up throws it away."
JP Acosta is discussing the Chicago Bears' offensive strategy, specifically their reliance on play-action rather than traditional drop-back passing. Acosta attributes this to the perceived weakness of the offensive line, suggesting that the coaching staff is prioritizing plays that utilize Caleb Williams' mobility to compensate for protection issues.
"But this game it was a I think it was a game that the Bills needed to win because that game was getting away from them really quickly that the Bills offense was moving the ball effectively and at will you know even without T. Higgins who had a concussion and came back got another concussion then also came back again which that was another one the concussion protocol in the NFL this season has been one of the biggest losers like what's happening here completely missed the J.J. McCarthy one a few weeks ago that was like blatantly obvious and then let him what else could it have been like the first time he goes down and he grabs his head that should immediately be like okay let's get him out of the game and keep him out of the game he comes back and I'm like are we sure about this he gets another concussion and then later in the game he scores a touchdown dunking on Maxx Crosby and that is the most like concussed touchdown I think of the season where like I don't think he knows what happened."
This quote from JP Acosta criticizes the NFL's concussion protocol, using the example of T. Higgins' multiple concussions in a single game. Acosta argues that the protocol failed to adequately protect the player and questions the decision-making process that allowed Higgins to return to play after initial symptoms.
"But you have the one handed Brian Thomas Jr. go route against Charvarius Ward also in the rain you have the um there's an out and up that he throws to Tim Patrick on the far side of the field he drops it in a bucket we were getting like full like aggressive downfield like trick shot thrower Trevor Lawrence in this game and I think that's the type of player that you sort of you're sort of going to need from the Jaguars to beat those elite teams you're going to have to try and get explosives especially because the run game wasn't super effective to start the game they loosened them up with the passing game so it feels like everybody since the Jacobbi Myers trade everybody has fit in so much better you don't have Brian Thomas Jr. running as many like big routes in breaking routes he's fully grown into his role as like the I would call it like sort of the Mike Evans ish role in this offense where he is the outside vertical threat you have Jacobbi Myers doing everything over the middle and since the Jacobbi Myers trade Trevor Lawrence's first in the NFL's success rate like this offense has fully grown into a really fun really dynamic unit and I'm curious to see if they can just keep it up if they can go into the uh post season on a high note with this passing game who knows what will happen."
JP Acosta is praising Trevor Lawrence's performance and the Jacksonville Jaguars' offensive development. Acosta highlights specific plays and the improved chemistry with receivers like Brian Thomas Jr. and the impact of the Jacobbi Myers trade, suggesting the offense has become a dynamic unit capable of explosive plays.
Resources
External Resources
Books
- Cars 3 - Mentioned as an analogy for the Kansas City Chiefs' perceived decline.
- Cocaine Bear - Mentioned as an analogy for Josh Allen's running style.
Videos & Documentaries
- Cars 3 - Mentioned as an analogy for the Kansas City Chiefs' perceived decline.
Articles & Papers
- ESPN stat - Mentioned in relation to Patrick Mahomes' career-worst QBR.
People
- Aaron Rodgers - Mentioned for his performance against the Baltimore Ravens.
- AJ Epinessa - Mentioned for his interception of a Joe Burrow pass.
- Alexa - Mentioned as a way to play the "Pushing the Pile" podcast on smart speakers.
- Andrew Vorhees - Mentioned as a player who has been performing poorly on the Ravens' interior offensive line.
- Andy Reid - Mentioned in relation to the Kansas City Chiefs' offensive scheming.
- Arch Manning - Mentioned in relation to commercials and his high school tape.
- Baker Mayfield - Mentioned in relation to the Buccaneers' offensive struggles and his EPA per play with and without Mike Evans.
- Ben Johnson - Mentioned in relation to Caleb Williams' play-action rate and the Bears' offensive strategy.
- Bo Melton - Mentioned for a touchdown with great design and execution.
- Brady Cook - Mentioned as a quarterback the podcast hosts watched during the pre-draft process.
- Brian Thomas Jr. - Mentioned for his role as an outside vertical threat for the Jaguars and his deep shots.
- C.J. Stroud - Mentioned for his performance against the Chiefs and his ability to make plays out of the pocket.
- Cam Ward - Mentioned for his performance against the Browns and his struggles as a passer.
- Chante Gardner Johnson - Mentioned in relation to a touchdown pass from Jordan Love.
- Christian Watson - Mentioned for a touchdown reception against the blitz.
- Daniel faalele - Mentioned as a player who has been performing poorly on the Ravens' interior offensive line.
- Daniel Jones - Mentioned in relation to the Colts' injury struggles and his own injury history.
- Devin Singletary - Mentioned for his performance on the right side of the Texans' offensive line and his running ability.
- Devon Witherspoon - Mentioned for his versatility on the Seahawks' defense.
- Doc Hudson - Mentioned in relation to an analogy from the movie Cars.
- Drake Maye - Mentioned as a player playing well, potentially impacting Matthew Stafford's MVP chances.
- Drew Brees - Mentioned in relation to commercials.
- Eric Kendricks - Mentioned as a player who has been performing poorly on the Ravens' interior offensive line.
- George Kittle - Mentioned for a drop that led to an interception.
- Gino Smith - Mentioned in relation to the Broncos' win over the Raiders and his future with the team.
- Grant Delpit - Mentioned for being the target of a throwaway by Cam Ward.
- Harold Fanin - Mentioned for his performance and a touchdown for the Titans.
- J.P. Acosta - Co-host of the "Pushing the Pile" podcast.
- Jackson Storm - Mentioned as a character from Cars 3.
- Jaden Higgin - Mentioned as a player who has stood out for the Texans.
- Jaden Reed - Mentioned as being back for the Packers, completing their offensive arsenal.
- James Bradberry - Mentioned in relation to the Rams' trade and the Falcons' draft pick.
- Jayden Daniels - Mentioned in relation to the Commanders' injury issues and his own injury history.
- Jalen Warren - Mentioned for a touchdown reception against the Ravens.
- Jerry Judy - Mentioned for a touchdown reception.
- John Harbaugh - Mentioned in relation to the Ravens' defensive performance and potential firings.
- Jonathan Gannon - Mentioned in relation to the Cardinals' performance and his job security.
- Jordan Love - Mentioned for his performance against the Bears, particularly against man coverage and the blitz.
- Josh Allen - Mentioned for his performance against the Bengals, including a long scramble touchdown.
- Josh McDaniels - Mentioned in relation to the Buccaneers' offensive coordinator situation.
- K.J. Jefferson - Mentioned for his performance against the Commanders.
- Kendrick Lamar - Mentioned as an example of a concert pre-sale available through Cash App.
- Kyle Long - Mentioned as a member of the "Pushing the Pile" team on Twitter.
- Lamar Jackson - Mentioned in relation to the Ravens' struggles and potential lingering injuries.
- Liam Cohen - Mentioned in relation to Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars' offensive strategy.
- Matt Ryan - Mentioned in relation to the Falcons' quarterback situation after his departure.
- Matthew Stafford - Mentioned for his performance with the Rams and his "still got it" award potential.
- Mike D'Antoni - Mentioned as a coach.
- Mike McDonald - Mentioned in relation to the Seahawks' defense and his coaching.
- Mike Renner - Co-host of the "Pushing the Pile" podcast.
- Miles Garrett - Mentioned for his pursuit of the sack record and a throwaway play.
- Mike Tomlin - Mentioned as a potential coach for an AFC North all-star team.
- Nick Rallis - Mentioned as a potential defensive coordinator candidate.
- Nico Collins - Mentioned for a great throw from C.J. Stroud.
- Puka Nacua - Mentioned for his finishing ability and touchdown receptions for the Rams.
- Patrick Mahomes - Mentioned for his career-worst QBR against the Texans and his team's struggles.
- Pat Freiermuth - Mentioned for a touchdown reception against the Ravens.
- Raheem Morris - Mentioned in relation to the Falcons' job security.
- Riley Leonard - Mentioned as a quarterback for the Colts after Daniel Jones' injury.
- Sabrina Carpenter - Mentioned as an example of a concert pre-sale available through Cash App.
- Saquon Barkley - Mentioned in relation to the Colts' offensive struggles.
- Sean Payton - Mentioned in relation to a deal with Pete Carroll before the Broncos-Raiders game.
- Shador Sanders - Mentioned for his performance as a quarterback for the Titans.
- Sutton Bank - Mentioned as a bank partner for Cash App.
- Terry Fontenot - Mentioned in relation to the Falcons' job security.
- Terry Cruz - Mentioned in relation to commercials.
- Trevon Diggs - Mentioned for a commercial with AT&T.
- Trevor Lawrence - Mentioned for his EPA per play against the Colts and his improved passing performance.
- Tua Tagovailoa - Mentioned in comparison to Baker Mayfield's struggles in certain conditions.
- Will Johnson - Mentioned as a player Puka Nacua scored a touchdown over.
- Zach Ertz - Mentioned for a torn ACL injury.
- Zach Orr - Mentioned as a potential defensive coordinator for the Ravens.
- Zach Taylor - Mentioned in relation to the Bengals' coaching decisions and potential firing.
Organizations & Institutions
- AT&T - Mentioned in relation to a commercial featuring Trevon Diggs.
- Audacy - Mentioned as a platform where "Pushing the Pile" is available.
- Baltimore Ravens - Mentioned for their loss to the Steelers and their performance.
- Bengals - Mentioned for their loss to the Bills.
- Bills - Mentioned for their win over the Bengals.
- Browns - Mentioned for their loss to the Titans.
- Buccaneers - Mentioned for their loss to the Saints.
- Bears - Mentioned for their loss to the Packers.
- CBS Sports - Mentioned as the source of the "Pushing the Pile" podcast.
- Chiefs - Mentioned for their loss to the Texans and their struggles.
- Commanders - Mentioned for their loss to the Vikings.
- Cowboys - Mentioned in relation to success rates.
- Deluth Trading - Mentioned as a sponsor.
- Eagles - Mentioned in relation to their performance and potential playoff matchups.
- FanDuel - Mentioned as a sponsor.
- Green Bay Packers - Mentioned for their win over the Bears.
- Houston Texans - Mentioned for their win over the Chiefs.
- Jacksonville Jaguars - Mentioned for their win over the Colts.
- Jets - Mentioned for their loss to the Dolphins.
- Kansas City Chiefs - Mentioned for their loss to the Texans and their struggles.
- Los Angeles Rams - Mentioned for their win over the Cardinals.
- Minnesota Vikings - Mentioned for their win over the Commanders.
- Mint Mobile - Mentioned as a sponsor.
- New England Patriots - Mentioned in relation to their historical point differential.
- New Orleans Saints - Mentioned for their win over the Buccaneers.
- New York Jets - Mentioned in relation to the Colts' draft pick.
- NFL - Mentioned throughout the text in relation to game recaps and analysis.
- Pittsburgh Steelers - Mentioned for their win over the Ravens.
- Pro Football Focus (PFF) - Mentioned as a data source.
- Seattle Seahawks - Mentioned for their win over the Falcons.
- Sutton Bank - Mentioned as a bank partner for Cash App.
- Tennessee Titans - Mentioned for their win over the Browns.
- The Athletic - Mentioned for playoff chances for the Chiefs.
- Thumbtack - Mentioned as a sponsor.
- Washington Commanders - Mentioned for their loss to the Vikings.
Tools & Software
- Audacy app - Mentioned as a platform where "Pushing the Pile" is available.
- Cash App - Mentioned as a sponsor with various benefits.
- Cash App Card - Mentioned as a feature of Cash App.
- Clorox Disinfecting Wipes - Mentioned as a sponsor.
- FanDuel Sportsbook - Mentioned as a sponsor.
- Spotify - Mentioned as a platform where "Pushing the Pile" is available.
- Thumbtack - Mentioned as a sponsor.
- YouTube - Mentioned in relation to the "Pushing the Pile" channel.
Podcasts & Audio
- Pushing the Pile: A CBS Sports NFL Podcast - The primary subject of the text, with episode details and recaps.
- CBS Sports Podcast Network - Mentioned as a source for more podcasts.
Other Resources
- AI - Mentioned in relation to commercials