NFL Week 15: Offensive Adjustments, Defensive Vulnerabilities, and Playoff Implications - Episode Hero Image

NFL Week 15: Offensive Adjustments, Defensive Vulnerabilities, and Playoff Implications

Original Title:

TL;DR

  • The Bills' offensive play-calling has shifted to using play-action to get players in space for short gains, rather than attacking deep, indicating a strategic adjustment to exploit horizontal field areas.
  • The Chiefs' offense, despite having Patrick Mahomes, struggles with scheme-dependent RPOs and a lack of separation, leading to a "toothless" and "lifeless" performance this season.
  • Lamar Jackson's reduced scramble rate and carries since returning from injury significantly impact the Ravens' offense, limiting their ability to create explosive plays and open up running lanes.
  • The Buccaneers' offense demonstrates a stark performance difference with and without Mike Evans, showing significantly higher EPA per dropback and explosive pass rates when he is on the field.
  • The Packers' offensive success against man coverage and the blitz, coupled with Jordan Love's ability to extend plays by drifting in the pocket, challenges defenses to adapt their strategies.
  • The Steelers' run defense is identified as a significant weakness, suggesting the Dolphins will heavily utilize their run game to exploit overaggressive edges and create downhill opportunities.
  • The Panthers' pass rush ranks among the bottom three units in the NFL, creating an environment where the Saints' offensive line can be trusted, potentially boosting their passing game.

Deep Dive

The NFL Week 15 slate presents a critical juncture for playoff contenders, with several matchups carrying significant implications for seeding and team trajectories. Key offensive trends include a shift towards aggressive, quick-hitting play action by the Bills and the Chiefs' struggle to find offensive identity despite individual talent. Defensively, teams like the Broncos and Seahawks are showcasing elite red zone and third-down efficiency, while others like the Ravens and Lions face critical defensive vulnerabilities.

Several teams are battling to maintain or improve their playoff positioning. The Bills face the Patriots in a divisional rematch, with Buffalo adjusting its play-action strategy to target short areas and exploit matchups, a move that may be necessary given the Patriots' defensive adjustments. The Chiefs, despite their favored status, are showing offensive inconsistencies, particularly with their reliance on RPOs and a lack of downfield separation, leading to questions about their ability to cover the spread against a Chargers team that utilizes jumbo packages effectively and boasts a quarterback adept at handling pressure. The Ravens are struggling offensively since Lamar Jackson's return, with a significant drop in red zone efficiency and points per drive, raising concerns about their coaching staff and potentially John Harbaugh's future if they miss the playoffs.

The NFC features intriguing matchups with playoff implications. The Lions and Rams are poised for a high-scoring affair, with the Lions' secondary facing a significant challenge against the Rams' potent receiving threats, necessitating defensive adjustments from Detroit. The Bears, dealing with harsh weather conditions, are expected to lean heavily on their run game against the Browns, potentially leading to a low-scoring, old-fashioned football game. The Giants, despite their poor record, may be playing themselves out of the top draft pick by winning late-season games, to the detriment of their rebuilding efforts. The Cowboys face a must-win situation against the Vikings, where their ability to contain Justin Jefferson and overcome potential offensive line issues will be crucial, though a low-scoring game is anticipated.

Individual player performances and team strategies are also central themes. Drake Maye's potential MVP-caliber performance against the Bills hinges on the Patriots' ability to run the ball effectively and tackle well. Jordan Love's success against the Broncos will depend on the Packers' offensive line protecting him against a strong Broncos pass rush and Love's ability to exploit man coverage. The Colts' playoff hopes are severely hampered by quarterback instability, facing a dominant Seahawks defense. The Texans are leaning into their run game and C.J. Stroud's ability to create outside of structure, while the Cardinals face significant offensive line injuries. The Panthers' offensive growth under Bryce Young is being tested against a Saints team that has quietly improved defensively. The 49ers are heavily favored against the Titans, with Kyle Shanahan's offensive scheme expected to dominate. The Raiders' offensive struggles might continue against the Eagles, with Kenny Pickett's effectiveness in question. The Dolphins' success against the Steelers in cold weather will depend on their run game and defense, with Tua Tagovailoa's cold-weather performance a notable concern. Finally, the Falcons' potential to exploit the Buccaneers' recent defensive struggles with Kirk Cousins and Drake London is high, especially if the Buccaneers' offense, without Mike Evans, continues to falter.

Action Items

  • Audit play-action usage: Analyze Josh Allen's yards per attempt with and without play-action over the last 5 games to identify strategic adjustments.
  • Measure defensive tackling effectiveness: Track missed tackles by the Bills' defense in their last 3 games to assess their ability to rally and tackle.
  • Evaluate offensive line impact: For the Patriots, assess the correlation between offensive line performance (specifically left tackle and guard) and Drake Maye's EPA per play.
  • Analyze Jordan Love's man coverage performance: Calculate Jordan Love's success rate and EPA per dropback against man coverage over the last 5 games.
  • Track defensive pressure effectiveness: For the Broncos, measure the pressure rate of their front four against the Packers' offensive line over the last 3 games.

Key Quotes

"I've noticed something with the Bills offense lately over the last couple of games, it feels like they've leaned a lot more into their play action, which is what you want to do when they run the ball as effectively as they do. But instead of like using that play action to attack downfield, which a lot of teams do, using play action, Josh Allen's yards per attempt for per attempt using play action has gone down from 7.8 yards to 4.7."

JP Acosta observes a strategic shift in the Bills' offensive approach, moving away from deep-ball attacks via play-action towards getting the ball to playmakers in space. This indicates a potential adjustment to exploit specific matchups or counter defensive schemes that were previously successful against them.


"I am just pumped to the fact that we get this, now we have another head-to-head matchup that we're going to see two times and between the league quarterbacks for seemingly the rest of these guys' careers."

Mike Renner expresses excitement about the emerging quarterback rivalry between Josh Allen and Drake Maye, highlighting its significance for the AFC East and the league as a whole. This suggests a belief that this matchup represents a new era of competitive quarterback play that fans can anticipate for years to come.


"The Broncos defense has the lowest goal-to-go touchdown rate allowed in the NFL this season, the lowest red zone efficiency allowed in the NFL this season, the lowest third down conversion rate allowed in the NFL this season. The Packers on the flip side offensively have the second best offensive scoring rate in terms of goal-to-go situations, second best in the red zone, first on third down conversions."

JP Acosta points out a stark statistical contrast between the Broncos' defensive prowess in critical situations and the Packers' offensive efficiency. This highlights a potential game-deciding factor where the Packers' ability to convert in the red zone and on third downs will be tested against a stout Broncos defense.


"I do think what's been noticeable is since Christian Watson's comeback from his injury, he leads the Packers in targets. I think his just his comfort and rapport with Jordan Love, especially downfield, I think that makes him the de facto wide receiver one in this offense."

Mike Renner identifies Christian Watson as Jordan Love's primary target and a key factor in the Packers' offensive success. This suggests that Watson's return and developing chemistry with Love are crucial for the Packers' ability to attack defenses effectively, particularly downfield.


"The biggest thing for this game is Brian Flores versus Dak Prescott is going to be so cool, it's going to be so fun watching because Dak Prescott is at this point in his career a supercomputer at quarterback. He is seeing almost everything, he is such a quick processor at the quarterback spot that he's able to make decisions and get the ball out quickly and find explosives down the field where you think there aren't explosives."

The speaker highlights the anticipated strategic battle between Brian Flores' defense and Dak Prescott's efficient quarterback play. This suggests that the game will be a test of Prescott's processing ability and ability to find open receivers against a defense known for forcing mistakes and generating pressure.


"I need to ban Andy Reid from using RPOs. That's the entire, this offense is so RPO reliant. The biggest thing, the biggest issue with this Chiefs team is they always have to scheme guys open. They always have to scheme them open, and then you only can do that using RPOs and quick game."

The speaker criticizes the Chiefs' offensive strategy, specifically their reliance on RPOs and quick game, arguing that it makes them predictable and limits their ability to generate explosive plays. This indicates a belief that the Chiefs' offensive struggles stem from a lack of creativity and an overdependence on specific schemes.

Resources

External Resources

Books

  • "The Art of War" by Sun Tzu - Mentioned as a foundational text for strategic thinking.

Articles & Papers

  • "The Art of War" (Sun Tzu) - Mentioned as a foundational text for strategic thinking.

People

  • Sun Tzu - Author of "The Art of War."

Other Resources

  • "The Art of War" - Mentioned as a foundational text for strategic thinking.

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