Analytics Transform Sports While Balancing Optimization and Appeal - Episode Hero Image

Analytics Transform Sports While Balancing Optimization and Appeal

Wharton Moneyball · · Listen to Original Episode →
Original Title:

TL;DR

  • Google's search data reveals fan interest in WNBA playoffs, with MVP awards driving searches for "most WNBA MVPs" and "best WNBA players of all time," indicating a growing fan base and historical recognition.
  • Google's partnership with the WNBA increased coverage by funding national television broadcasts and supporting changemaker initiatives, demonstrating a commitment to growing women's sports as a viable business.
  • Analytics in baseball have led to a focus on pitching velocity and reduced game length, potentially diminishing entertainment value and player individuality by prioritizing optimization over organic play.
  • Athletes Org represents over 4,800 college athletes, providing benefits like legal services and advocating for a collectively bargained agreement to ensure fair representation in multi-billion dollar sports negotiations.
  • Analytics are used in the NFL for game planning by identifying opponent tendencies on specific downs and distances, enabling players to anticipate plays and react faster.
  • NBA teams are exploring advanced analytics for player acquisition, attempting to build simulators that predict player complementarity, though widespread adoption and impact on decision-making remain uncertain.
  • The NBA's tracking data, processed by companies like Genius IQ, annotates passes and player movements, enabling more sophisticated analysis of player contributions and team dynamics.

Deep Dive

This compilation of "Best of 2025" Wharton Moneyball segments highlights how evolving analytical approaches and technology are reshaping sports, from fan engagement and athlete empowerment to the fundamental strategies of baseball and basketball. The discussions reveal a tension between data-driven optimization and the preservation of traditional sport elements, while also underscoring the growing importance of athlete advocacy and representation in a rapidly changing landscape.

Ananya Raghavan from Google's Trends team demonstrates how search data provides real-time insights into fan interests, with the WNBA playoffs serving as a prime example of surging engagement driven by historic player achievements and cultural touchpoints. This data is not merely observational; Google's partnership with the WNBA has actively increased media coverage and accessibility, leading to a reported 330% growth in search interest, illustrating how data analysis can directly fuel business investment and fan growth. The implication is that understanding granular fan behavior, including tangential interests like specific food types or fashion, can unlock new avenues for sponsorship and fan connection, moving beyond traditional on-court metrics.

Brandon Copeland, co-founder of Athletes Organization, provides a critical perspective on the structural inequities within college athletics, arguing that the NCAA's historical framing of athletes as "student-athletes" has been used to avoid fair compensation. With the advent of Name, Image, and Likeness (NIL) deals and recent legal settlements, college athletes are now positioned to receive direct compensation, akin to professional athletes. Copeland stresses that Athletes Organization's role is to provide essential benefits like legal services and to advocate for a collective bargaining agreement (CBA), mirroring the NFL's structure. This implies that without formalized representation, college athletes remain vulnerable to exploitation, and their participation in a multi-billion dollar industry, particularly in revenue-generating sports like football, necessitates a seat at the negotiation table to ensure sustainability and fairness.

Jane Leavy, a baseball biographer, offers a more critical view of analytics' impact on baseball, arguing that while it optimizes for efficiency, it has diminished the game's inherent entertainment value and strategic depth. She points to the "three true outcomes" (home runs, walks, strikeouts) and the increased reliance on specialized pitchers throwing at extreme velocities as evidence of a more predictable and less engaging product. Leavy suggests that rule changes, rather than blaming analytics itself, are needed to restore the game's spontaneity and appeal to families, emphasizing that owners must prioritize long-term fan experience over short-term optimization dictated by current rules. The implication is that an overemphasis on efficiency can paradoxically erode the very qualities that make a sport compelling.

Dean Oliver, a basketball analyst, discusses the rapid integration of analytics into player evaluation and strategy, particularly highlighting the unique challenge posed by emerging talents like Victor Wembanyama. He notes that historical precedents are less useful for such singular talents, forcing teams to rely on trial and error and sophisticated data analysis to understand player impact and team complementarity. Oliver points out that while technology can now annotate complex play-by-play data, translating this into actionable decision-making for team management remains a significant challenge. This suggests that the frontier of analytics lies not just in data collection but in developing robust models for predicting player synergy and future performance, a complex problem that requires both technical sophistication and organizational buy-in.

The overarching takeaway is that while analytics offers powerful tools for optimization and understanding, its implementation must be carefully considered to avoid diminishing the spirit and appeal of sports. Whether it's fostering fan engagement, ensuring athlete fairness, or preserving the inherent drama of competition, a balanced approach that considers both data and human elements is crucial for the future of athletics.

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Key Quotes

"The great thing about trends is that you can look at like a historical basis so our data goes all the way back to 2004 to now if you're interested in but you know when it comes to the w and a lot of those things that i do with those partners it's the real time data where we're interested in which goes all the way up to three minutes ago so we can really take a look at what people are searching for live the interests and curiosities that um trigger them to dig deeper for more information"

Ananya Raghavan explains that Google Trends data can be accessed at various frequencies, from historical archives dating back to 2004 to real-time information updated as recently as three minutes prior. This flexibility allows for the analysis of both long-term cultural shifts and immediate fan interests, such as those surrounding live sporting events.

"our real goal with this partnership is to just really increase coverage and commitment to women's sports and that was what we did when we entered into this in 2021 our goal was really to increase the amount of hours of women's sports coverage and um just make the league more accessible and these women's sports leagues more accessible and you know we've seen that since google entered into the wnba partnership in 2021 search interest in the league has grown by 330"

Ananya Raghavan states that Google's partnership with the WNBA aims to boost coverage and commitment to women's sports, a goal initiated in 2021. This initiative has demonstrably increased accessibility and led to a significant 330% growth in search interest for the league since the partnership began.

"your job as a football player is to use your instincts to guess before the snap whether it's run or pass and then once that ball is so i'm using my instincts i'm hey the wide receiver just did this on their gloves every time odell beckham does that it's a pass he doesn't do of the block right or there's certain running backs who would literally always look around whenever it was a run trying to throw you off but they're really trying to scan to see where they're going to be doing certain things right so i'm using those tendencies to determine whether it's a run or pass but then i'm also using the statistics that we learned during the week before the before we say ready break right i'm looking at it's third and two i know third and two they like crossing routes and i'm using those statistics to understand how can i play faster and assume where the ball is going"

Brandon Copeland explains that NFL players use a combination of instinct and statistical analysis to anticipate plays. He highlights how observing player tendencies, such as a receiver's pre-snap actions or a running back's subtle movements, coupled with weekly statistical insights on opponent play-calling (e.g., crossing routes on third and short), allows players to react faster and predict the ball's trajectory.

"what athletes org is it's a players' association for college athletes and if you are following anything about the college athletics space right now you're seeing a lot of chaos what people will say or the wild wild west so to speak and what that wild wild west is and frankly some of it i think is a little overblown to a certain extent but the wild wild west is because there are no rules that can be enforced over college athletes without violating antitrust"

Brandon Copeland defines Athletes Org as a player association for college athletes, addressing the current chaotic landscape in college athletics, which he likens to the "wild wild west." He attributes this to a lack of enforceable rules for college athletes without infringing on antitrust laws.

"i i think it's killing it i mean and i don't mean that because i hate all look first of all i can't add multiply subtract or divide i got a 320 on my math gre when they still used to take it out of you know 800 points so for me to have spent this much time trying to understand the math and following people around going i have no idea what they're talking about if i can't make it clear to readers you know it's the same issue as the analytics dudes in the baseball ops office trying to talk to players who have no idea what they're talking about and can't follow it"

Jane Leavy expresses a strong negative sentiment towards the current state of baseball, stating it is "killing it," despite her personal lack of mathematical expertise. She draws a parallel between her own struggle to understand analytics and the communication gap between analytics professionals in baseball operations and the players themselves.

"i would argue that as an entertainment it was a better game then and virtually every old player thinks so it has been so compacted contracted whatever because of the three true outcomes the same things happen over and over and over again and when you get a guy like jacob young the outfielder the gymnast for the nationals the only good thing that any of them did all year where he went to see the field and he brought a home run back over from center field and the ball drops out of his glove as he's coming back down to earth right and so what does he do he kicks it and he kicks it back into his glove and he makes the out and then he throws in a great throw in and it's it's that's what's missing in baseball it's you know mookie betts with the wheel calling the wheel play because he didn't have a fucking card index card in his hat he was allowed to think and use his instincts and his body the way he has been trained to use them"

Jane Leavy argues that baseball was a better entertainment product in the past, attributing its current compacted and repetitive nature to the "three true outcomes." She contrasts this with moments of instinct and athleticism, like a player recovering a dropped ball or a player like Mookie Betts making strategic decisions without relying solely on data cards, suggesting these are the elements now missing from the game.

"i think teams are going to end up using trial and error more than they are going to use history i think people try to think back to things that are kind of close but his he's unique he's he's as much as people called say kristaps porzingis the unicorn at some point and kp is he's tall and he can shoot and he's got a great defensive presence you add another couple inches to him and you add quicker feet and better ball handling then you've got wembanyama so like what are you going to learn from the comparison to kp probably not anywhere near as much as you need to"

Dean Oliver suggests that teams will likely rely on trial and error rather than historical precedent to strategize against unique players like Victor Wembanyama. He emphasizes Wembanyama's distinctiveness, noting that even comparisons to players like Kristaps Porzingis, who share some physical attributes, fall short of capturing Wembanyama's full skillset and impact.

"the nfl is the most popular sport in this

Resources

External Resources

Books

  • "The Big Fella" by Jane Leavy - Mentioned in relation to Babe Ruth biography.
  • "The Last Boy" by Jane Leavy - Mentioned in relation to Mickey Mantle biography.
  • "The End of America's Childhood" by Jane Leavy - Mentioned in relation to Mickey Mantle biography.
  • "Make Me Commissioner: I Know What's Wrong with Baseball and How to Fix It" by Jane Leavy - Discussed as a source for insights on baseball's issues and potential solutions.

Articles & Papers

  • O'Bannon v. NCAA (Case) - Referenced as the origin of the Name, Image, and Likeness (NIL) discussion for college athletes.
  • House v. NCAA (Settlement) - Referenced as a recent agreement allowing schools to pay athletes directly for name, image, and likeness.

People

  • Jane Leavy - Baseball biographer and author, discussed for her insights on baseball's issues and the impact of analytics.
  • Dean Oliver - Sports analyst at ESPN and author, discussed for his expertise on basketball analytics and player evaluation.
  • Victor Wembanyama - NBA player, discussed as a unique and impactful talent whose development is being closely watched.
  • Kristaps Porzingis - NBA player, used as a comparison point for Victor Wembanyama's physical attributes and impact.
  • Brandon Copeland - Wharton alum, former NFL player, and co-founder of Athletes Org, discussed for his insights on athlete advocacy and financial literacy.
  • Ray Denison - Football player whose injury and death led to the NCAA's creation of the "student-athlete" term.
  • Walter Byers - Former leader of the NCAA, associated with the creation of the "student-athlete" term.
  • Patrick Mahomes - NFL player, used as an example of an athlete leveraging name, image, and likeness for marketing deals.
  • Jalen Hurts - NFL player, used as an example of an athlete leveraging name, image, and likeness for marketing deals.
  • AJ Brown - NFL player, mentioned in relation to Jalen Hurts' performance.
  • Beats by Dre - Brand, mentioned as a potential marketing partner for athletes.
  • Nike - Brand, mentioned as a potential marketing partner for athletes.
  • Gatorade - Brand, mentioned as a potential marketing partner for athletes.
  • Odell Beckham - NFL player, mentioned for his tendencies that can indicate a pass play.
  • Greg Williams - Former defensive coordinator, quoted on using instincts and statistics in football.
  • Trent Williams - NFL player, mentioned as an example of an offensive lineman whose tendencies are analyzed.
  • Larry Tunzel - NFL player, mentioned as an example of an offensive lineman whose tendencies are analyzed.
  • Mookie Betts - MLB player, mentioned for his ability to think and use instincts on the field.
  • Dave Roberts - MLB manager, discussed for pulling Clayton Kershaw from a perfect game.
  • Clayton Kershaw - MLB pitcher, discussed for being pulled from a perfect game.
  • Bill Lee (Spaceman) - Former MLB player, discussed for his emotional reaction to a manager's decision.
  • Jacob Young - MLB outfielder, mentioned for a specific play involving a home run and a catch.
  • Buck Showalter - MLB manager, mentioned in dugout discussions.
  • Kevin Cash - MLB manager, mentioned in dugout discussions.
  • Dusty Baker - MLB manager, mentioned in dugout discussions.
  • Pecco Hasoy - Head of the MIT Analytics Lab, discussed in relation to baseball analytics.
  • Danny White - University of Tennessee AD, mentioned for a proposal regarding college athletes.
  • Ryan Brill - Former student at Wharton, now working for the Utah Jazz, discussed for his work on sports analytics.

Organizations & Institutions

  • Google - Company, discussed for its work in sports trends analysis and its partnership with the WNBA.
  • Google Trends - Tool/Platform, discussed for analyzing search data related to sports and culture.
  • WNBA (Women's National Basketball Association) - League, discussed for its growing popularity and Google's partnership to increase coverage.
  • ESPN - Sports network, mentioned for broadcasting WNBA games and featuring fan search segments.
  • NFL (National Football League) - League, discussed in relation to analytics in game planning and player training.
  • New England Patriots - NFL team, mentioned as an example of a team that prioritizes gaining first downs.
  • San Francisco 49ers - NFL team, mentioned as an example of a team that prioritizes gaining first downs.
  • NCAA (National Collegiate Athletic Association) - Organization, discussed in relation to its history, the "student-athlete" term, and its financial dealings.
  • University of Pennsylvania - University, mentioned as a business school and a former football program.
  • Wharton School - Business school, mentioned as the host of the podcast and a source of analytics expertise.
  • Athletes Org - Players' association for college athletes, discussed for its role in player advocacy, financial literacy, and contract review.
  • Los Angeles Dodgers - MLB team, mentioned in relation to Shohei Ohtani's pitching.
  • University of Maryland - University, mentioned as an example of a school that can now pay athletes directly.
  • University of Georgia - University, mentioned as an example of a school that can now pay athletes directly.
  • University of Alabama - University, mentioned as an example of a school that can now pay athletes directly.
  • National Baseball Hall of Fame - Institution, mentioned as a place the speaker attends annually.
  • MIT - University, mentioned for its analytics lab.
  • Utah Jazz - NBA team, mentioned in relation to Ryan Brill's employment.
  • Genius IQ - Company, mentioned as a processor of sports data.
  • NBA (National Basketball Association) - League, discussed in relation to analytics in player acquisition and team strategy.
  • Phoenix - NBA team, mentioned as having recently defeated the Spurs.
  • San Antonio Spurs - NBA team, discussed in relation to Victor Wembanyama's impact.

Tools & Software

  • Google Pixel - Product, mentioned in relation to Asia Wilson's MVP award.
  • Trends.google.com - Website/Tool, discussed as a resource for exploring search trends.

Podcasts & Audio

  • Wharton Moneyball - Podcast, the platform for the discussion.
  • Wharton Podcast Network - Network, the producer of the podcast.

Other Resources

  • "Student-athlete" term - Concept, discussed as a term created by the NCAA to maintain amateur status and avoid workers' compensation.
  • Name, Image, and Likeness (NIL) - Concept, discussed as a recent development allowing college athletes to earn money.
  • "Three true outcomes" - Baseball concept, discussed as a factor contributing to the game's perceived lack of action.
  • "The Unicorn" - Nickname for Kristaps Porzingis, used as a comparison point.
  • "The Big Fella" - Nickname for Babe Ruth, mentioned in relation to Jane Leavy's book.
  • "The Last Boy" - Nickname for Mickey Mantle, mentioned in relation to Jane Leavy's book.
  • "The End of America's Childhood" - Book title, mentioned in relation to Mickey Mantle.
  • "Make Me Commissioner: I Know What's Wrong with Baseball and How to Fix It" - Book title, mentioned as a source of baseball analysis.
  • "Basketball on Paper" - Book title, mentioned as an analytics resource for basketball.
  • "Basketball Beyond Paper" - Book title, mentioned as an analytics resource for basketball.
  • "Moneyball" - Concept/Book/Movie, referenced in the context of sports analytics and valuation.
  • "Wild Wild West" - Metaphor, used to describe the current state of college athletics due to a lack of enforceable rules.
  • Collective Bargaining Agreement (CBA) - Concept, discussed as a framework for negotiations between athletes and leagues.
  • "The Bananas" - Baseball team, mentioned for their innovative fan engagement ideas.
  • "Big Data Bowl" - Competition, mentioned as a potential inspiration for the NBA to release data.

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